AP_CandlePatterns_V2Created by : Andrew Palladino
Date: 1/29/2017
This indicator displays a message above/below a bar when certain candle patterns appear. The indicator currently supports two candle patterns.
Consecutive Up/Down Bars:
The indicator searches for instances where there are more than n number of consecutive up bars or down bars on a given time frame. For example, the user can specify the minimum number of consecutive up/down bars, default is set to 8. When the number of consecutive up/down bars is greater or equal to 8, a label will be displayed above the high, for up bars, and below the low for down bars. The color of the next candle will turn red when the criteria is met.
Bearish/Bullish Pin Bar Reversal Signals:
The indicator will alert the trader when there is a Pin bar formation on the current time frame.
The Pin bar trend period is currently set to 20 bars, which translates to the following:
In an uptrend, the high of the Pin bar must be the highest of the last 20 bars.
In a downtrend, the low of the Pin bar must be the lowest of the last 20 bars. The trend bar period acts as a filter which ignores any pin bar formation during a trend continuation move. A trend continuation move is subjective and must be quantified by the user by setting the trend period value accordingly.
The trader has the ability to enable or disable individual candle formations.
Additional patterns will be added in the future.
在腳本中搜尋"liquidity"
AP_CandlePatternsCreated by : Andrew Palladino
Date: 1/29/2017
This indicator displays a message above/below a bar when certain candle patterns appear. The indicator currently supports two candle patterns.
Consecutive Up/Down Bars:
The indicator searches for instances where there are more than n number of consecutive up bars or down bars on a given time frame. For example, the user can specify the minimum number of consecutive up/down bars, default is set to 8. When the number of consecutive up/down bars is greater or equal to 8, a label will be displayed above the high, for up bars, and below the low for down bars. The color of the next candle will turn red when the criteria is met.
Bearish/Bullish Pin Bar Reversal Signals:
The indicator will alert the trader when there is a bearish or bullish Pin bar reversal on the current time frame.
The trader has the ability to enable or disable individual candle formations. Additional patterns will be added in the future.
AP_CandlePatterns_v1The indicator currently only looks for instances where there are more than n number of consecutive up bars or down bars on a given time frame. For example, the user can specify the minimum number of consecutive up/down bars, default is set to 8. When the number of consecutive up/down bars is greater or equal to 8, a label will be displayed above the high, for up bars, and below the low for down bars. The color of the next candle will turn red when the criteria is met.
Additional candle patterns will be added in the near future.
AP_NthPivotCreated by: Andrew Palladino
Date: 1/16/2017
This indicator will display ONLY unhit pivots preceded by additional consecutive unhit pivots.
A pivot is defined as unhit when price travels above or below it without ever crossing the pivot level. A pivot is hit only when prices crosses that level at any given time after the pivot is formed.
The trader can change the following settings:
Pivot Time Frame can be set to: 15, 60, 240, D, W, M or Y
Minimum number of consecutive unhit pivots to display: Default set to 1.
GBPAUD Example:
In the example above there are two AP_NthPivot indicators overlayed.
The blue pivot corresponds to the most recent unhit daily pivot preceded by a second unhit pivot. The red pivot corresponds to the most recent unhit weekly pivot preceded by a second unhit pivot.
The minimum number of consecutive unhit pivots to display, for both cases, is set to 2.
Unhit pivots can become high probability targets, especially when the count is set to 2 or more.
TF Breakout BarIndicator Name: TF Breakout Bar
Creator: Andrew Palladino
Date: 12/14/2016
The TF Breakout Bar allows the user to check for a breakout or a breakdown on a specific time frame regardless of what time frame resolution the current chart is on.
The user can change the following:
Breakout and Breakdown time frame
Lookback bar period for breakouts
Lookback bar period for breakdowns
RSI5 Multi Time Frame IndicatorCreated by Andrew Palladino.
Date of Creation: 12/13/2016
Checks overbought or oversold conditions across 5 time frames.
If Time frame 1, 2 and 3 are all overbought then bar color changes to red
If Time frame 1, 2 and 3 are all oversold then bar color changes to green
If Time frame 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are all overbought then a vertical red line is added to the plot
If Time frame 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are all oversold then a vertical green line is added to the plot
The user has the ability to change:
1) Any of the 5 time frames (Set in minutes: m5 = 5, m15 = 15, h1 = 60, h4 = 240, D = 1440...)
2) RSI overbought threshold Level
3) RSI oversold threshold Level
4) RSI Period
Breakout BarThe following script colors breakout bars.
The user can specify the look back period.
If current close is highest of the past n bars it will color the bar light blue.
If current close is lowest of the past n bars it will color the bar red.
All other bars are black for down bars and white for up bars.
RSI MultiTFLooks for Triple Overbought/Oversold RSI conditions. Paints the bar red when Triple Overbought, and Lime when Triple Oversold.
Multi Time frame RSITriple RSI Indicator.
Colors bars red when RSI is overbought across 3 time frames specified by user.
Colors bars lime when RSI is oversold across 3 time frames specified by user.
os/ob levels and RSI period can also be customized.
Pip Spread to EMA TargetThis script calculates the total number of pips between current close and a target EMA. There are three thresholds that can be specified to determine when that total number of pip spread exceeds a standard deviation multiple set by user. Current standard deviation thresholds on pip spread are set to 2, 2.5 and 3. A pip spread that goes above 3 standard deviations is considered very extreme. The standard deviation is calculated across a predetermined set of bars. Currently look back period for standard deviation count is set to 3000.
Pip Spread to EMA TargetCalculates the pip spread to a target EMA. When spread exceeds a standard deviation multiple set by user background area goes blue. Blue zones are extreme spreads and opportunities for a reversion to EMA Target trade.
Bars Since EMA OverlayCounts number of bars since an EMA Touch or an EMA cross with close and shades the area when a threshold is exceeded. Currently supported for 3 thresholds.
TQ's Support & Resistance(My goal creating this indicator): Provide a way to categorize and label key structures on multiple different levels so I can create a plan based on those observable facts.
The Underlying Concept / What is Momentum?
Momentum indicates transaction pressure. If the algorithm detects price is going up, that would be considered positive momentum. If the algorithm detects price is going down negative momentum would be detected.
The Momentum shown is derived from a price action pattern. Unlike my previous Support & Resistance indicator that used Super Trend, this indicator uses a unique pattern I created. On the first bar bearish momentum is detected a resistance Level is made at the highest point of the previous bullish condition. On the first bar bullish momentum is detected a support Level is made at the lowest point of the previous bearish condition. This happens on 5 different Momentum Levels, (short-term to long-term). I currently use this pattern to trade so the source code is protected.
What is Severity?
Severity is How we differentiate the importance of different Highs and Lows. If Momentum is detected on a higher level the Supply or Demand Level is updated. The Color and Size representing that Level will be shown. Demand and Supply Levels made by higher levels are more SEVERE than a demand level made by a lower level.
Technical Inputs
- to ensure the correct calculation of Support and Resistance levels change BAR_INDEX. BAR_INDEX creates a buffer at the start of the chart. For example: If you set BAR_INDEX to 300. The script will wait for 300 bars to elapse on the current chart before running. This allows the script more time to gather data. Which is needed in order for our dynamic lookback length to never return an error (Dynamic lookback length can't be negative or zero). The lower the timeframe the greater the number of bars need. For Example, if I open up a 1min chart I would enter 5000 as my BAR_INDEX since that will provide enough data to ensure the correct calculation of Support and Resistance levels. If I was on a daily chart, I would enter a lower number such as 800. Don't be afraid to play around with this.
- Toggle options (Close) or (High & Low) creates Support and Resistance Levels using the Lowest close and Highest close or using the Lowest low and Highest high.
Level Inputs
- The indicator has 5 Different Levels indicating SEVEREITY of a Supply and Demand Levels. The higher the Level the more SEVERE the Level.
Display Inputs
- You have the option to customize the Length, Width, Line Style, and Colors of all 5 different
- This indicator includes a Trend Chart. To Easily verify the current trend of any displayed by this indicator toggle on Chart On/Off. You also get the option to change the Chart Position and the size of the Trend Chart
How Trend Is being Determined?
(Close > Current Supply Level) if this statement is true technically price made a HH, so the trend is bullish.
(Close < Current Demand Level) if this statement is true technically price made a LL, so the trend is bearish.
- Fully customize how you display Market Structure on different levels. Line Length, Line Width, Line Style, and Line color can all be customized.
How it can be used?
(Examples of Different ways you can use this indicator): Easily categorize the severity of each and every Supply or Demand Level in the market (The higher Level the stronger the level)
: Quickly Determine the trend of any Level.
: Get a consistent view of a market and how different Levels are behaving but just use one chart.
: Take the discretion from hand drawing support and resistance lines out of your trading.
: Find and categorize strong levels for potential breakouts.
: Trend Analysis, use Levels to create a narrative based on observable facts from these Levels.
: Different Targets to take money off the table.
: Use Severity to differentiate between different trend line setups.
: Find Great places to move your stop loss too.
Visible Range Support and Resistance [AlgoAlpha]🌟 Introducing the Visible Range Support and Resistance 🌟
Discover key support and resistance levels with the innovative "Visible Range Support and Resistance" indicator by AlgoAlpha! 🚀📈 This advanced tool dynamically identifies significant price zones based on the visible range of your chart, providing traders with crucial insights for making informed decisions.
Key Features:
Dynamic support and resistance levels based on visible chart range 📏
User-defined resolution for tailored analysis 🎯
Clear visual representation of significant key zones 🖼️
Easy integration with any trading strategy 💼
How to Use:
🛠 Add the Indicator : Add the indicator to favourites. Adjust settings like resolution and horizontal extension to suit your trading style.
📊 Market Analysis : Identify key support and resistance zones based on the highlighted areas. These zones indicate significant price levels where the market may react.
How it Works:
The indicator segments the price range into user-defined resolutions, analyzing the highest and lowest points to establish boundaries. It calculates the frequency of price action within these segments, highlighting key levels where price movements are least concentrated (areas where price tends to pivot). Customizable settings like resolution and horizontal extension allow for tailored analysis, while the intuitive visual representation makes it easy to spot potential support and resistance zones directly on your chart.
By leveraging this indicator, you can gain deeper insights into market dynamics and improve your trading strategy with data driven support and resistance analysis. Happy trading! 💹✨
Directional Pressure (maybexo)Liquidity Candles, observed in financial markets, display distinctive candlestick patterns that are noteworthy. These candles exhibit intentional price behavior aimed at triggering stop-loss orders and momentarily misleading traders. The pattern typically starts with a price movement against the current trend, activating stop-loss orders and capitalizing on liquidity from traders anticipating the prevailing trend. Subsequently, the price swiftly changes course, breaking and conclusively closing beyond the prior candle's range, often surprising unsuspecting traders.
Characteristics:
1. Liquidity Grab:
- Liquidity Candles initiate with a deliberate move against the existing trend, aimed at triggering stop-loss orders and gathering liquidity from traders who have placed stops in anticipation of the initial trend.
- Notably, the size of the wick in this liquidity grab is significant; a larger wick indicates a more substantial liquidity grab and can strengthen the indication of a potential market reversal.
2. Swift Reversal and Breakout:
- Following the liquidity grab, the price swiftly changes direction, breaking and conclusively closing above or below the previous candle's range.
3. Institutional Behavior:
- These candles are often linked to institutional trading behavior, suggesting potential involvement by significant market participants due to their distinct and deliberate price action.
// Diamonds
1. RSI Diamonds:
The RSI Diamonds represent RSI entering either overbought or oversold levels.
These Diamonds serve as an early indication for "Spooky Diamonds" as Spooky Diamonds can only form in these conditions
2. Spooky Diamonds:
The Spooky Diamonds highlight specific candle conditions, aiding in the identification of bullish or bearish momentum in the market while considering the RSI status.
Bullish Candle Momentum: The candle size is greater than the previous candle multiplied by a user-defined factor (filterMultiplier) and the closing price is higher than the opening price. This can suggest bullish momentum.
Bearish Candle Momentum: The candle size is greater than the previous candle multiplied by the filterMultiplier, and the closing price is lower than the opening price. This can suggest bearish momentum.
Important Notes:
The Candles + Diamonds should not be used in isolation as buy or sell signals but rather as additional information for your trading strategy.
The goal of this indicator is to provide a visual representation of RSI data and potential momentum during overbought or oversold conditions.
By utilizing the diamonds and candles, you can easily identify RSI levels and their interaction with candles, aiding in decision-making within your trading strategy.
Disclaimer: Always consider your risk tolerance and conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions.
Inspiration Credits:
Vanitati
Mr. Casino
🧠 Rogue BTC Dominance + BTC Price MonitorLiquidity never lies.
When whales are done pumping, they exit before price tanks, often during sideways chop or fake strength.
So we build a tracker that detects:
Volume drop during uptrend (distribution phase)
Exchange inflows of coins
Rising USDT.D while price holds → stealth exit
Divergence between price & on-chain flows
👁️ Quick Use Case: BTC/USDT with USDT.D Overlay
If you see this pattern:
BTC sideways or slow uptrend
Volume declining
USDT.D rising
BTC.D holding flat
→ Liquidity Exit Detected.
Smart money is exiting quietly, waiting for retail to hold the bag.
Liquidity Fvg IdentifierDear Traders,
This indicator is very effective and supports Price action Traders.
Swing Identification
This automatically Detect swings level and mark as per the chart Time frame. these lines can be used for support and resistance.This is represented by Yellow and Blue lines
There is an option to put Higher time frame swing levels and these are represented by Green and Red Lines. Eg: if you are trading in 5 mins and you also want 1 hour swing levels , then you can get this by selecting higher time frame 1 hour and select both Chart and Htf in the option provided.
Trade: If price is approaching where both Times frames swing lines are coinciding these levels act as strong Support and Resistance . You need to wait for proper price action to form and take Trades.
FVG
This also automatically detect Fare Value Gaps and mark as per the chart Time Frame. These can be used for reversal trades . This is represented buy purple blocks
There is an option to put higher time frame FVG and these are represented by Red Blocks. Eg : if you are trading in 15 mins and you also want 4 hours FVG, then you can get this by selecting Higher time frame 4 hours and select both chart and HTF in the option provided.
Trade: If price is approaching where both time frames FVG are coinciding , these box will act as strong support and reversal. wait for proper price action and trade can be taken.
Volume Breakout.
This will automatically detect and volume breakout of last 60 candles and plots below the candle. These can be adjusted in setting as per requirement. suppose you want for last 30 candles , you can select 30 and it will plot below candle when ever there is breakout.
Trade: When ever volume breakout is coming near swing or fvg support or resistance , this can be considered to support reversal.
Pls take your financial advisor suggesting before using taking trades .
any suggestion reach to us thru message
Thanks
Liquidity Levels [LuxAlgo]The Peak Activity Levels indicator displays support and resistance levels from prices accompanied by significant volume. The indicator includes a histogram returning the frequency of closing prices falling between two parallel levels, each bin shows the number of bullish candles within the levels.
1. Settings
Length: Lookback for the detection of volume peaks.
Number Of Levels: Determines the number of levels to display.
Levels Color Mode: Determines how the levels should be colored. "Relative" will color the levels based on their location relative to the current price. "Random" will apply a random color to each level. "Fixed" will use a single color for each level.
Levels Style: Style of the displayed levels. Styles include solid, dashed, and dotted.
1.1 Histogram
Show Histogram: Determines whether to display the histogram or not.
Histogram Window: Lookback period of the histogram calculation.
Bins Colors: Control the color of the histogram bins.
2. Usage
The indicator can be used to display ready-to-use support and resistance. These are constructed from peaks in volume. When a peak occurs, we take the price where this peak occurred and use it as the value for our level.
If one of the levels was previously tested, we can hypothesize that the level might be used as support/resistance in the future. Additional analysis using volume can be done in order to confirm a potential bounce.
The histogram can return various information to the user. It can show if the price stayed within two levels for a long time and if the price within two levels was mostly made of bullish or bearish candles.
In the chart above, we can see that over the most recent 200 bars (determined by Histogram Window) 68 closing prices fall between levels A and B, with 27 bars being bullish.
Additionally, the width of a bin and its length can sometimes give information about the volatility of a specific price variation. If a bin is very wide but short (a low number of closing prices fallen within the levels) then we can conclude a most of the movement was done on a short amount of time.
[WDA Duck Soup] Change State & Dip (CS&D)The Change State & Dip (CS&D) indicator is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed to identify potential market reversals and momentum shifts in real-time. CS&D stands for "Change State & Dip," representing moments when the market potentially transitions from bullish to bearish sentiment (or vice versa), indicating price action may "dip" or run toward the opposing directional bias.
Key Features
Detection Methods
Classic Mode: Traditional candlestick pattern analysis based on open-close relationships
Liquidity Sweep Mode: Advanced detection using pivot point analysis and liquidity sweep identification
Session Analysis
Global Session Support: Tracks New York, London, and Asian trading sessions
Session High/Low Zones: Dynamic support and resistance levels that extend throughout each session
Adjustable Session Times: Fully customizable session periods to accommodate different market conditions
Visual Session Highlights: Color-coded background highlighting for session identification
Signal Generation
Real-Time Detection: Identifies state changes as they develop
Minimum Duration Filter: Eliminates false signals with customizable duration requirements
Maximum Validity Period: Prevents stale signals with time-based invalidation
Trend Continuation Tracking: Distinguishes between new trends and trend continuation
How It Works
Core Logic
The CS&D indicator monitors price delivery patterns and identifies when market structure suggests a potential change in directional bias. When price fails to maintain its current state of delivery and begins moving toward opposing levels, the indicator flags this as a potential "Change State & Dip" moment.
Signal Validation
State Tracking: Monitors current market delivery state based on candlestick patterns
Break Confirmation: Validates when price action breaks below/above established delivery levels
Duration Analysis: Ensures signals meet minimum duration requirements for reliability
Trend Context: Considers existing trend direction for signal classification
Visual Elements
CS&D Labels: Clear directional labels marking state change confirmations
Delivery Lines: Horizontal lines showing current state of delivery levels
Directional Arrows: Up/down arrows indicating expected price movement direction
Session Zones: Background highlighting and high/low lines for session context
Trading Applications
Futures Trading
Particularly effective for:
Gold Futures (GC): Identifies key reversal points during major session transitions
Nasdaq Futures (NQ): Captures momentum shifts in technology-heavy markets
Session-Based Strategies: Leverages session high/low zones for entry/exit planning
Risk Management
Entry Timing: Provides clear entry signals when market state changes are confirmed
Stop Loss Placement: Session high/low zones offer logical stop loss levels
Trend Identification: Helps distinguish between continuation and reversal scenarios
Alert System
Real-Time Notifications: Alerts fire when candles close and CS&D signals are confirmed
Bullish Alerts: "CS&D Bullish Signal - BUY" when upward state change is detected
Bearish Alerts: "CS&D Bearish Signal - SELL" when downward state change is detected
Configuration Options
Detection Settings
Detection Method: Choose between Classic and Liquidity Sweep modes
Swing Length: Adjust pivot detection sensitivity (Liquidity Sweep mode)
Minimum CS&D Duration: Filter short-term noise with duration requirements
Maximum Swing Validity: Set time limits for signal relevance
Visual Customization
Label Size: Tiny or Small text options
Color Schemes: Customizable bullish/bearish colors
Line Styles: Solid, dashed, or dotted session level lines
Session Colors: Individual color settings for each trading session
Session Configuration
New York Session: Default 9:00 AM - 3:00 PM EST (customizable)
London Session: Default 3:00 AM - 8:00 AM EST (customizable)
Asian Session: Default 7:00 PM - 12:00 PM EST (customizable)
Best Practices
Signal Interpretation
Confirmation: Wait for candle close confirmation before acting on signals
Context Analysis: Consider session context and high/low zones for optimal entries
Volume Confirmation: Use with volume analysis for additional signal validation
Multiple Timeframes: Apply across different timeframes for comprehensive analysis
Risk Considerations
Market Conditions: Effectiveness may vary in trending vs. ranging markets
News Events: Be cautious during high-impact economic announcements
Session Transitions: Pay special attention to signals during session overlaps
Backtesting: Test settings on historical data before live implementation
Technical Notes
Pine Script v5: Built using the latest Pine Script version for optimal performance
Overlay Indicator: Displays directly on price charts without separate pane
Memory Efficient: Optimized for real-time performance with proper resource management
Multi-Asset Compatible: Suitable for forex, commodities, indices, and cryptocurrency markets
Disclaimer
This indicator is designed for educational and analytical purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct proper risk management and consider multiple forms of analysis before making trading decisions. The CS&D methodology should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy rather than as a standalone decision-making tool.
Liquidity_Detection_Fx_Shepherd [ALLDYN]### Breakdown of the Basic "Fx_Shepherd_Liquidity" Script
#### 1. **Purpose of the Script:**
This basic version of the "Fx_Shepherd_Liquidity" script is designed to help traders detect potential liquidity grabs by analyzing price movements and candle patterns in the market. It works by identifying large price deviations and compares multiple candles to detect liquidity sweeps either to the upside or downside.
#### 2. **How it Works:**
- **User Inputs:**
- `Maru_rate`: This is a user-defined percentage that helps determine how much the price movement of a candle needs to deviate from the candle's range (high - low) to be considered a liquidity grab.
- `Compare`: Another percentage input used to compare the relative size of three candles versus one candle.
- `MA`: This represents the "Big candle period," or the moving average period for big candles.
- `urgent_rate`: This is used to determine urgency by comparing the current candle's range to an SMA of previous candles.
- **Key Calculation Steps:**
- **Candle Deviation (Up and Down):**
- `Up` measures how much the current candle closes above its open (bullish deviation).
- `Down` measures how much the current candle closes below its open (bearish deviation).
- **Average Deviations:**
- `UP_Sum` and `Do_Sum` calculate the SMA of Up and Down deviations, respectively, over the defined period (MA). These averages help detect when a candle deviates significantly from the norm.
- **Urgency Detection:**
- `Check_Up_Urgent` and `Check_Dow_Urgent` are conditions that check if the current candle’s high-low range exceeds the defined urgent rate. This signals whether the price movement is "urgent" or significant.
- **Liquidity Detection:**
- **For Upward Liquidity:**
- The script checks if the candle is bullish (`close > open`) and whether the price deviation (`close - open`) meets or exceeds the user-defined `Maru_rate`.
- The script then compares the size of the previous three candles (`high - low`) with a single candle (`Compare`) to confirm a liquidity grab.
- Finally, it looks for continuous upward candle patterns to confirm the strength of the move.
- **For Downward Liquidity:**
- Similar logic applies, but for bearish candles. It checks whether the candle is bearish (`close < open`) and applies the same size comparisons to detect downward liquidity grabs.
- **Candle Highlighting:**
- If the conditions for a liquidity grab are met (both urgency and size), the script changes the bar color to green for upward liquidity and yellow for downward liquidity. These colored bars visually highlight the candles that meet the liquidity grab conditions.
- The script also colors up to three consecutive candles if they meet the liquidity grab conditions (offset = -1, -2).
#### 3. **Benefits of Using This Script:**
- **Liquidity Grab Detection:**
This script helps detect potential liquidity grabs, which occur when large players in the market push the price in a direction to trigger stop-losses or lure retail traders into a position before reversing the price direction. By detecting these movements, traders can avoid being trapped and potentially take advantage of the upcoming reversal.
- **Simple & Lightweight:**
The script uses basic inputs and calculations to detect liquidity grabs, making it easy to use and understand. It's less complex than the advanced version, which makes it suitable for traders who prefer simplicity or are new to liquidity grab detection.
- **Visual Clarity:**
The script uses color changes (green for upward grabs and yellow for downward grabs) to help traders easily spot potential liquidity grab areas on the chart. These visual cues make it more straightforward to interpret.
#### 4. **When to Use This Basic Version:**
- **Quick Liquidity Detection:** This script is ideal for traders who need a quick way to detect potential liquidity grabs without the complexity of managing dynamic parameters or volume confirmation.
- **Simplified Trading Strategies:** If your trading strategy doesn’t rely heavily on volume or multi-timeframe liquidity grab adjustments, this script can work well for basic setups where price action is the primary indicator.
- **Faster Execution:** Since this version doesn’t require dynamic adjustments or volume confirmation, it executes faster, making it suitable for traders who need lightweight tools to stay on top of fast-moving markets.
### Conclusion:
The basic version of the **Fx_Shepherd_Liquidity** script offers a simplified tool for detecting potential liquidity grabs. Its straightforward design, adjustable Maru rate, and visual bar color changes make it easy to integrate into any trading strategy focused on price action. While it lacks the advanced features of the premium version, it serves as a solid, lightweight solution for traders who prefer simplicity over complexity.
Bitcoin Power Law Global Liqudity Model by G. SantostasiIn recent studies, we've observed a notable correlation between Bitcoin's price and global liquidity metrics. This relationship reveals significant insights into Bitcoin's price movements and offers a new perspective on using macroeconomic indicators to understand and predict Bitcoin's market trends.
Our analysis shows that Bitcoin's price exhibits periodic bubbles, which seem closely associated with oscillations in global liquidity. Notably, the overall price path of Bitcoin appears to be a complex function of global liquidity. This relationship is not as simple as the Bitcoin Power Law in time that can be described with a simple equation, Price ∼ time⁶.
Instead, we have developed a polynomial model to describe this complex relationship between liquidity and Bitcoin price. With a 4-degree polynomial (with 5 different parameters needed to fit the data), we can get a decent fit to the data.
The fit is obtained using 500 data points by polynomial regression. The vector coefficients of the polynomial are obtained such that the sum of squared error between the observations and theoretical polynomial model is minimized.
This model needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the warning by famous mathematician Von Neumann: "With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." discussing a model created by Italian Physicist Fermi. By this he meant that the Fermi simulations relied on too many input parameters, presupposing an overfitting phenomenon.
We can still gain some insights into the relationship between Global Liquidity and the price evolution of Bitcoin using this complex model.
When the price of Bitcoin is plotted against our global liquidity index, we observe a polynomial relationship. This model allows us to see when Bitcoin's price deviates significantly from the predicted value based on global liquidity:
Above the Model: When Bitcoin's price is above the polynomial fit, it indicates a potential lack of sufficient liquidity to support the current price level, suggesting a likely correction.
Below the Model: Conversely, when the price is below the fit, it implies that liquidity might be higher than what is reflected in the price, indicating potential upward movement.
Our global liquidity index comprises several key macroeconomic metrics from major financial institutions worldwide. Here are some of the major components:
RRP (Reverse Repurchase Agreements): This metric indicates the level of liquidity in the financial system through temporary sales of securities with an agreement to repurchase them.
FED (Federal Reserve System): Represents the balance sheet of the US central bank, reflecting its monetary policy actions.
TGA (Treasury General Account): Reflects the US Treasury’s cash balance, impacting the liquidity in the banking system.
PBC (People's Bank of China): Shows the monetary policy actions and liquidity management by China’s central bank.
ECB (European Central Bank): Represents the balance sheet and liquidity management actions of the Eurozone's central bank.
BOJ (Bank of Japan): Reflects Japan's central bank's monetary policy and liquidity measures.
Other Central Banks: Includes metrics from various other central banks like the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, etc.
M2 Money Supply: This includes money supply metrics from various countries like the USA, Europe, China, Japan, and other significant economies.
These components collectively provide a comprehensive view of global liquidity, which is crucial for understanding its impact on Bitcoin's price.
Using the polynomial model and the author's Bitcoin power law model we can create 2 oscillators, one that shows deviations from the trend (normalized to the price to make the peaks more uniform) and the other showing deviations of the polynomial liquidity model from the power law trend.
The oscillators show the difference between the price and the power law model relative to the price, Orange Line. The Blue Line is instead the difference between the Global Liquidity Model of the price and the power law model relative to the model itself. The two oscillators can be overlayed to show their differences and similarities.
Analysis: In addition to similar observations from the discussion above we can see that most Bitcoin bottoms are not directly associated with bottoms in the liquidity model indicating a different mechanism at play that determines Bitcoin bottoms (probably due to miners' capitulation).
Using the new force_overlay function we plot the polynomial liquidity model directly over the Bitcoin price chart while we display the 2 oscillators in a separate panel.
