Short Selling EMA Cross (By Coinrule)BINANCE:AVAXUSDT
This short selling script works best in periods of downtrends and general bearish market conditions, with the ultimate goal to sell as the the price decreases further and buy back before a rebound.
This script can work well on coins you are planning to hodl for long-term and works especially well whilst using an automated bot that can execute your trades for you. It allows you to hedge your investment by allocating a % of your coins to trade with, whilst not risking your entire holding. This mitigates unrealised losses from hodling as it provides additional cash from the profits made. You can then choose to to hodl this cash, or use it to reinvest when the market reaches attractive buying levels.
Entry
The exponential moving average ( EMA ) 20 and EMA 50 have been used for the variables determining the entry to the short. EMAs can operate better than simple moving averages due to the additional weighting placed on the most recent data points, whereas simple moving averages weight all the data the same. This means that price is tracked more closely and the most recent volatile moves can be captured and exploited more efficiently using EMAs.
Our backtesting data revealed that the most profitable timeframe was the 30-minute timeframe, this also enabled a good frequency of trades and high profitability.
A fast (shorter term) exponential moving average , in this strategy the EMA 20, crossing under a slow (longer term) moving average, in this example the EMA 50, signals the price of an asset has started to trend to the downside, as the most recent data signals price is declining compared to earlier data. The entry acts on this principle and executes when the EMA 20 crosses under the EMA 50.
Enter Short: EMA 20 crosses under EMA 50.
Exit
This script utilises a take profit and stop loss for the exit. The take profit is set at -8% and the stop loss is set at +16% from the entry price. This would normally be a poor trade due to the risk:reward equalling 0.5. However, when looking at the backtesting data, the high profitability of the strategy (93.33%) leads to increased confidence and showcases the high probability of success according to historical data.
The take profit (-8%) and the stop loss (+16%) of the strategy are widely placed to ensure the move is captured without being stopped out due to relief rallies. The stop loss also plays a role of mitigating losses and minimising risk of being stuck in a short position once there has been a fundamental trend reversal and the market has become bullish .
Exit Short: -8% price decrease from entry price.
OR
Exit Short: +16% price increase from entry price.
Tip: Research what coins have consistent and large token unlocks / highly inflationary tokenomics, and target these during bear markets to short as they will most likely have substantial selling pressure that outweighs demand - leading to declining prices.
The strategy assumes each order is using 30% of the available coins to make the results more realistic and to simulate you only ran this strategy on 30% of your holdings. A trading fee of 0.1% is also taken into account and is aligned to the base fee applied on Binance.
The backtesting data was recorded from December 1st 2021, just as the market was beginning its downtrend. We therefore recommend analysing the market conditions prior to utilising this strategy as it operates best on weak coins during downtrends and bearish conditions.
在腳本中搜尋"profitable"
Steven Primo's bollinger bands strategyHi, this strategy is taken from a video made by Steven Primo. You can look it up on YouTube if you want to know about it.
It is a mean-reversion strategy based on the Bollinger Bands, in which we wait for 5 consecutive closes above the upper band, and for a short-term top. Once it happens, we place an entry order on this top, with a stop at the nearest bottom before the movement started, and use the difference from the stop and entry point to determine the target. For shorting, it's the same process, but for the downside. From my testing, only long orders were profitable, but you can configure whichever you want.
It works well for directional markets with a low level of noise, as you can see with the BTCUSD chart. One of its caveats is the short number of occurrences, and the long stop loss and target. You can enable a trailing stop, but from my testings, it just made the results worse.
I made some modifications, like removing the MA requirement, since the entry point was above it almost all the time, and I forced the BB to use a log version of the prices, so that discrepancies are eliminated. You'll also notice that you can't select an extension that is lower than 100, and that is intentional, since you're not supposed to enter a trade in which you can lose more than what you can earn.
I chose not to implement any kind of risk management, but I might do that in the future. You can leave your suggestions in the comments.
PhinkTrade Risk Manager EssentialsHello there, fellow traders!
So, happy to bring you a new, free tool: my Risk Manager Essentials .
(To use it, click on "Add to favorite indicators" below, and then look for it in your charts’ "Indicators & Strategies" dialog window, inside "Favorites" tab.)
The main objective of this indicator is to help and incentivize as many traders as possible to adopt essential risk management practices .
First and foremost, it helps you define how much you can buy or sell, at your chosen price levels, in order to keep your risk always under control (in other words: in order to limit the amount you can potentially lose with a trade if your stop loss order is hit).
This is fundamental if you want to have a lasting and successful trading career: protect your capital, always . Because without it, you know: it’s game over.
Indicator also helps you visualize where minimum ideal target / take profit level is , given your risk, using the popular 3:1 Return/Risk ratio (R/R) .
3:1 R/R ratio is popular because with it you only need to “be right” (have price reach your targets) about 33% of the time, in order to be profitable : in other words, the fewer successful trades will pay you more than the sum of your unsuccessful ones will take from you.
So, make sure your strategy has a success rate greater than 33% and apply 3:1 R/R to your trades . This indicator will help you that, and with developing the necessary discipline . For example, by knowing where the ideal target should be, given your choices, you can assess the likelihood of it being reached in current price context. If that would look like a hard to happen scenario, it would probably be a good idea to avoid taking that particular trade.
Now, let’s see how it works:
When you deploy the indicator to the chart for the first time, you’ll be asked to define:
Your 1st entry price (interactively: you can define and adjust levels directly on the chart, thanks to the new Interactive Mode introduced by TradingView (ty, TV team!))
Your stop loss price (likewise)
Your 1st target price (likewise)
Your starting capital (via initial Input dialog)
Your risk (likewise)
Your risk is how much of your starting capital you are willing to lose if your stop loss is hit (define it as a % of your starting capital).
There’s a good practice here too: to risk only 1 percent of your capital per trade . This way, you can reinforce the odds of making more money than you lose and keep your peace of mind in all trades – and avoid messing up with your plans – and statistics – along the way.
Successful trading is a statistics-based endeavor. So, you want to implement and maintain consistency. Again, this indicator helps with that.
After initial setup:
You can also define additional entries and targets (up to 3 each) . Just open indicator’s Settings window and adjust accordingly.
If you have more than one entry – or target, the amounts involved will be split evenly between them. You can also enable the display of the Average Entry and Average Target labels , to see the equivalent, should you have taken (or take) a single order for each.
You can also define (via Settings, then interactively) a particular date and time for the trade . This way, labels will be presented near that moment, instead of constantly show near the latest bar.
Finally, you can personalize some other display settings: levels precision (number of decimal places), labels positions , and labels colors .
In conclusion:
You are very welcome to check it out – and adopt it on your daily use!
Please let me know your feedbacks as well. If you find any issues, or have any suggestions, I’ll be glad to hear. You can contact me here, via TradingView, or Telegram.
Finally, check the updates section below , as new stuff may show from time to time.
Thank you very much for your attention, and enjoy!
PhinkTrade
Sideways Strategy DMI + Bollinger Bands (by Coinrule)Markets don’t always trade in a clear direction. At a closer look, most of the time, they move sideways. Relying on trend-following strategies all the time can thus lead to repeated false signals in such conditions.
However, before you can safely trade sideways, you have to identify the most suitable market conditions.
The main features of such strategies are:
Short-term trades, with quick entries and quick exits
Slightly contrarian and mean-reversionary
Require some indicator that tells you it’s a sideways market
This Sideways DMI + Bollinger Bands strategy incorporates such features to bring you a profitable alternative when the regular trend-following systems stop working.
ENTRY
1. The trading system requires confirmation for a sideways market from the Directional Movement Index (DMI) before you can start opening any trades. For this purpose, the strategy uses the absolute difference between positive and negative DMI, which must be lower than 20.
2. To pick the right moment to buy, the strategy looks at the Bollinger Bands (BB). It enters the trade when the price crosses over the lower BB.
EXIT
The strategy then exits when the move has been exhausted. Generally, in sideways markets, the price should revert lower. The position is closed when the price crosses back down below the upper BB.
The best time frame for this strategy based on our backtest is the 1-hr. Shorter timeframes can also work well on certain coins that are more volatile and trade sideways more often. However, as expected, these exhibit larger volatility in their returns. In general, this approach suits medium timeframes. A trading fee of 0.1% is taken into account. The fee is aligned to the base fee applied on Binance, which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange.
EHMA Range StrategyThis script is a modified version of @borserman's script for the Exponential Hull Moving Average
All credit for the EHMA goes to him :)
In addition to the EHMA, this script works with a range around the EHMA (which can be modified), in an attempt to be robust against fake signals. Many times a bar will close below a moving average, only to reverse again the next bar, which eats away at your profits. Especially on shorter timeframes, but also on choppy longer timeframes this can make a strategy unattractive to use.
With the range around the EHMA, the strategy only enters a long/exit-short position if a bar crosses above the upper range. Vice versa, it only enters a short/exit-long position if a bar crosses below the lower range. This avoids positions if bars behave choppy within the EHMA range & only enters a position if the market is confident in it's direction. Having said that, fakeouts are still possible, but a lot less frequent. Having backtested this strategy vs the regular EHMA strategy (and having experimented with various settings), this version seems to be a lot more robust & profitable!
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
SMOOTHED RSI SWITCHThis more complex take on the traditional RSI provides clearer entry and exit points and looks beyond just overbought/oversold levels, altogether creating a more robust trading strategy.
The RSI is smoothed by the Hull MA with adjustable periods.
Although a variety of strategies can be developed using this indicator. I intended its most profitable use be as follows:
Entries are to be taken when the oscillator flips from red to clear and/or directly from red to green. Sell/short positions are to be take when the oscillator flips from green to clear and/or directly from green to red.
Pivot Moving Average steteggythis Pivot Moving Average steteggy works best on a chart --->>Above 100$ crypto
Sniper is very profitable in terms of% good trades
It will perform very well on 1-5X Leverage (Solid leverage, not variable depending on the volume )
TP: 0.9 %
SL : 5.5 %
GRID SPOT TRADING ALGORITHM - GRID BOT TRADING STRATEGYGRID SPOT TRADING ALGORITHM : LONG ONLY STRATEGY OPEN SOURCE
This is a long only strategy for spot assets.
HOW IT WORKS
Grid trading is a trading strategy where an investor creates a so-called "price grid". The basic idea of the strategy is to repeatedly buy at the pre-specified price and then wait for the price to rise above that level and then sell the position (and vice versa with shorting or hedging).
FEATURES
Grids: This algorithm has a total of 10 grids.
Take profit: The trader can increase or decrease the distance between the grids from the User Interface panel, the distance between one grid and another represents the take profit.
Management: The algorithm buys 10% of the capital every time the price breaks down a grid and sells during a rise to the next higher grid. The initial capital is invested in 10 sizes which represent 10% of the capital per trade.
Stop Loss: The algorithm knows no stop loss as long as it is not activated from the User Interface panel. By activating the stop loss from the User Interface panel the algorithm will insert a close condition on all trades which will be calculated from the last lower grid.
Trades: Trades are opened only if the price is within the grid. If the market leaves the grid the algorithm will not buy new positions or sell new positions.
Optimal market conditions: The favorable market for this algorithm is the sideways market.
LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL
The trader must take into account that this is a static model. It only works perfectly well if the market is in a sideways phase and incurs heavy losses if the market takes a downward trend. The model is unusable for an uptrend. The trader must therefore carefully analyze the market where he intends to use this strategy, making sure that the price is in a sideways phase.
USES
Indispensable research and backtesting tool for those using bots for their investments. The algorithm produces a backtesting of the strategy for past history. It is used by professional traders to understand if this strategy has been profitable on a market and what parameters to use for bots using this strategy (Kucoin, Binance etc.).
If you would like to develop your own algorithm with customized conditions based on a grid strategy, please contact us.
If you need help in using this tool, please contact us without hesitation.
Trending Bollinger Bands by SiddWolfBollinger Bands are mostly used for trend reversal. I believe they should be used for Trend Continuation and Trend Confirmation.
In this Trending Bollinger Bands script you will see two bands drawn on chart. The Upper band is suggestive of Uptrend and Lower Band is suggestive of Downtrend Market. It just provides the guidance of where the market is now and where it is headed. It is not to be used as a standalone indicator. Use this to confirm your hypothesis of Uptrend or Downtrend.
Bollinger Bands Trend
When the price crosses the moving average it is interpreted as the price is gonna continue in that direction. But most of the time it is a fake breakout. With this script you get an additional confirmation so that you know it is not a fake breakout and the price have caught the trend.
Bollinger Bands Reversal:
This indicator can also work for reversal. For example when price closes outside the outer bands, it is most likely that the trend is gonna reverse. Don't just enter the trade wait for some other confirmation as reversal trading is more complicated.
Confluence:
Confluence is the key factor for profitable trading. Don't use this indicator as standalone indicator instead combine it with other indicators and price action. Like the divergence occurring when the price is outside the bands is suggestive of trend reversal. I have created a non-delay, non-repaint indicator for finding divergence. I'd soon publish that script. Stay tuned.
Settings is the Key:
Try to play around with the settings. It is a simple yet effective indicator. Change the moving average type or length. I've found moving average RMA or WMA works better than SMA. Find the best setting that works with your setup. Set the Band Source as High/Low to make the outer bands more extreme.
Conclusion:
This is my first script but it isn't my last. I've created quite a few gems that I'm gonna publish soon. If you have any questions or suggestions feel free to comment below. I'd love to connect with you. Thank you.
TICK Scalping strategy, SPY 1 min1 min chart scalping version of my other TICK strategy with adjusted parameters and additional entry and exit conditions better suited for 1 min SPY chart. Please refer to my original TICK strategy for explanation.
Important notes:
1. This strategy is designed for same day SPY option scalping on the 1 min chart . All profit shown in back testing report is based on Profit/Loss (P/L) estimates from trading options with approximately 6 weeks of data. By default, it is set to 10 option contracts. By default the initial capital is set to $5000. Pyramiding is set to 3.
2. This strategy works better with non-extended market data .
3. This strategy is mainly developed for SPY trading on 1 min chart, it probably will not be very profitable with other tickers or time frame without tweaking all the parameters first.
Cheers and enjoy~! Let's all make money~!!
Super OrderBlock / FVG / BoS Tools by makuchaku & eFeThis super indicator is a Swiss army knife for Smart Money traders for OrderBlocks / FVG / BoS
It provides many options for drawing (non-repainting) boxes for OrderBlocks, Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and Break of Structures. The boxes are extended into the future, until the first retest/mitigation.
Some of the additional options (not explained in the diagrams above)
PPDD OB : An order block which is formed after interacting with Liquidity (old low/high, fractal low/high, etc). Since these OB's are in the most premium or most discount, they are Premium Premium Discount Discount OB's (PPDD OB)
HVB Bars : When the volume of any bar is higher than the average volume of last N bars, it could mean something important (in the right context). Hence, the indicator allows for coloring them differently.
This indicator was built as a collaboration between @makuchaku & eFe
Pro tip : This indicator is a simply a tool to visualize trading concepts on the candle stick chart. It is the job of the trader to sequence these effectively into a profitable trade.
If you come across any bug or have a question on how to effectively use the indicator, please don't hesitate to ask questions.
Good luck & good trading!
SAR + 3SMMA with SL & TPThis script is a combination of SAR strategy and 3 Smoothed Moving Averages.
Strategy:
Takes SAR longs when all 3 SMMAs are rising. Take SAR short when all 3 SMMAs are falling.
Supports StopLoss and TakeProfit.
If you have found a profitable setup for it, please share in the comments or private chat.
TICK strategy for SPY optionsImportant notes:
1. This strategy is designed for same day SPY option scalping. All profit shown in back testing report is based on Profit/Loss (P/L) estimates from trading options with approximately 6 months of data. By default, it is set to 10 option contracts. By default the initial capital is set to $5000. Pyramiding is set to 3.
2. This strategy works better with non-extended market data.
3. This strategy is mainly developed for SPY trading on 5 min chart, it probably will not be very profitable with other tickers or time frame without tweaking all the parameters first.
4. This strategy will work with QQQ as well, but please adjust the profit multiplier to match the P/L of QQQ options.
How it works:
When trading the indices, many rely on the TICK for market directions. This strategy is a trend following strategy that uses a combination of conditions using the following indicators:
- TICK
- RSI
- VIX volatility index
- EMA
For entries, the conditions are:
1. TICK moving average crossover with a delayed signal line
2. Bullish or bearish RSI signal, RSI > 50 for bullish, < 50 for bearish
3. VIX must be above a certain threshold to take advantage of high market volatility
4. Price must be on top of EMA line for long, and below for short
For exits, there are 3 scenarios:
1. Stop loss set by a percentage of the daily ATR value
2. Trend changes on the TICK and the RSI
3. Bearish or bullish divergence on price with TICK
This strategy automatically signal to close all trades at 3:50 pm EST at the end of the day.
Extras:
- There is an option to show P/L for reinvesting profits
Enjoy~!!! Let's all make $$$
Trading the Equity Curve Position Sizing Example"Trading the equity curve" as a risk management method is the process of acting on trade signals depending on whether a system’s performance is indicating the strategy is in a profitable or losing phase.
The point of managing equity curve is to minimize risk in trading when the equity curve is in a downtrend. This strategy has two modes to determine the equity curve downtrend: By creating two simple moving averages of a portfolio's equity curve - a short-term and a longer-term one - and acting on their crossings. If the fast SMA is below the slow SMA, equity downtrend is detected (smafastequity < smaslowequity).
The second method is by using the crossings of equity itself with the longer-period SMA (equity < smasloweequity).
When Trading with the Equity Curve" is active, the position size will be reduced by a specified percentage if the equity is "under water" according to a selected rule. If you're a risk seeker, select "Increase size by %" - for some robust systems, it could help overcome their small drawdowns quicker.
KINSKI Multi Trend OscillatorThe Multi Trend Oscillator is a tool that combines the ratings of several indicators to facilitate the search for profitable trades. I was inspired by the excellent indicator "Technical Ratings" from Team TradingView to create an alternative with a technically new approach. Therefore, it is not a modified copy of the original, but newly conceived and implemented.
The recommendations of the indicator are based on the calculated ratings from the different indicators included in it. The special thing here is that all settings for the individual indicators can be changed according to your own needs and displayed as a histogram and MA line. This provides an excellent visual control of your own settings. Alarms are also triggered.
Criteria for determining the rating
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Buy - Crossover oversold level and indicator < oversold level and rising
Sell - Crossunder oversold level and indicator >= oversold level and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Laguerre
Buy - Crossover Oversold Level and Indicator < Oversold Level and rising
Sell - Crossunder oversold level and indicator >= oversold level and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Noise free Relative Strength Index (RSX)
Buy - Crossover Oversold Level and Indicator < Oversold Level and rising
Sell - Crossunder oversold level and indicator >= oversold level and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Money Flow Index (MFI)
Buy - Crossover Oversold Level and Indicator < Oversold Level and rising
Sell - Crossunder oversold level and indicator >= oversold level and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Buy - Crossover Oversold Level and Indicator < Oversold Level and rising
Sell - Crossunder oversold level and indicator >= oversold level and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
Buy - values of the main line > values of the signal line and rising
Sell - values of the main line < values of the signal line and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Klinger
Buy - indicator >= 0 and rising
Sell - indicator < 0 and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Average Directional Index (ADX)
Buy - indicator > 20 and +DI line crosses over the -DI line and rising
Sell - indicator > 20 and +DI line crosses below the -DI line and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Awesome Oscillator
Buy - Crossover 0 and values are greater than 0, or exceed the zero line
Sell - Crossunder 0 and values are lower than 0, or fall below the zero line
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Ultimate Oscillator
Buy - Crossover oversold level and indicator < oversold level and rising
Sell - Crossunder oversold level and indicator >= oversold level and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Williams Percent Range
Buy - Crossover Oversold Level and Indicator < Oversold Level and rising
Sell - Crossunder Oversold Level and Indicator >= Oversold Level and falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Momentum
Buy - Crossover 0 and indicator levels rising
Sell - Crossunder 0 and indicator values falling
Neutral - neither Buy nor Sell
Total Ratings
The numerical value of the rating "Sell" is 0, "Neutral" is 0 and "Buy" is 1. The total rating is calculated as the average of the ratings of the individual indicators and are determined according to the following criteria:
MaxCount = 12 (depending on whether other oscillators are added).
CompareSellStrong = MaxCount * 0.3
CompareMid = MaxCount * 0.5
CompareBuyStrong = MaxCount * 0.7
value <= CompareSellStrong - Strong Sell
value < CompareMid and value > CompareSellStrong - Sell
value == 6 - Neutral
value > CompareMid and value < CompareBuyStrong - Buy
value >= CompareBuyStrong - Strong Buy
Understanding the results
The Multi Trend Oscillator is designed so that its values fluctuate between 0 and currently 12 (maximum number of integrated indicators). Its values are displayed as a histogram with green, red and gray bars. The bars are gray when the value of the indicator is at half of the number of indicators used, currently 12. Increasingly saturated green bars indicate increasing values above 6, and increasingly saturated red bars indicate increasingly decreasing values below 6.
The table at the end of the histogram shows details (can be activated in the settings) about the overall rating and the individual indicators. Its color is determined by the rating value: gray for neutral, green for buy or strong buy, red for sell or strong sell.
The following alarms are triggered:
Multi Trend Oscillator: Sell
Multi Trend Oscillator: Strong Sell
Multi Trend Oscillator: Buy
Multi Trend Oscillator: Strong Buy
AlphaTrendAlphaTrend is a brand new indicator which I've personally derived from Trend Magic and still developing:
In Magic Trend we had some problems, Alpha Trend tries to solve those problems such as:
1-To minimize stop losses and overcome sideways market conditions.
2-To have more accurate BUY/SELL signals during trending market conditions.
3- To have significant support and resistance levels.
4- To bring together indicators from different categories that are compatible with each other and make a meaningful combination regarding momentum, trend, volatility, volume and trailing stop loss.
according to those purposes Alpha Trend:
1- Acts like a dead indicator like its ancestor Magic Trendin sideways market conditions and doesn't give many false signals.
2- With another line with 2 bars offsetted off the original one Alpha Trend have BUY and SELL signals from their crossovers.
BUY / LONG when Alpha Trend line crosses above its 2 bars offsetted line and there would be a green filling between them
SELL / SHORT when Alpha Trend line crosses below its 2 bars offsetted line and filling would be red then.
3- Alpha Trend lines
-act as support levels when an uptrend occurs trailing 1*ATR (default coefficient) distance from bar's low values
-conversely act as resistancelevels when a downtrend occurs trailing 1*ATR (default coefficient) distance from bar's high values
and acting as trailing stop losses
the more Alpha Trend lines straighter the more supports and resistances become stronger.
4- Trend Magic has CCI in calculation
Alpha Trend has MFI as momentum, but when there's no volume data MFI has 0 values, so there's abutton to change calculation considering RSI after checking the relevant box to overcome this problem when there is no volume data in that chart.
Momentum: RSI and MFI
Trend: Magic Trend
Volatility: ATR,
Trailing STOP: ATR TRAILING STOP
Volume: MFI
Alpha trend is really a combination of different types...
default values:
coefficient: 1 which is the factor of trailing ATR value
common period: 14 which is the length of ATR MFI and RSI
Wish you all use AlphaTrend in profitable trades.
Kıvanç Özbilgiç
PnL and Buy & Hold TrackerIn this script I use a simple, not necessarily profitable, strategy of a cross of MAs to teach how to calculate and plot the PnL of each trade made by the indicator. I also show how to calculate the cumulative PnL of all trades and the Buy and Hold of the same period.
These calculations which are natively available in any strategy script, require a bit of resourcefulness to work in an indicator script.
It can be very useful to optimize parameters for the best performance of an indicator-based strategy.
I use variables to store the price of the asset at each buy signal to calculate the PnL with the closing price of that particular trade and another variable to store the price value of the first trade, which calculates the Buy and Hold percentage with the current price of the asset.
I plot the values of the trades in labels and the accumulated values in a table.
I also show how to calculate and plot the unrealized PnL of open trades.
Bitcoin Power Law Bands (BTC Power Law) Indicator█ OVERVIEW
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a set of three US dollar price trendlines and two price bands for bitcoin , indicating overall long-term trend, support and resistance levels as well as oversold and overbought conditions. The magnitude and growth of the middle (Center) line is determined by double logarithmic (log-log) regression on the entire USD price history of bitcoin . The upper (Resistance) and lower (Support) lines follow the same trajectory but multiplied by respective (fixed) factors. These two lines indicate levels where the price of bitcoin is expected to meet strong long-term resistance or receive strong long-term support. The two bands between the three lines are price levels where bitcoin may be considered overbought or oversold.
All parameters and visuals may be customized by the user as needed.
█ CONCEPTS
Long-term models
Long-term price models have many challenges, the most significant of which is getting the growth curve right overall. No one can predict how a certain market, asset class, or financial instrument will unfold over several decades. In the case of bitcoin , price history is very limited and extremely volatile, and this further complicates the situation. Fortunately for us, a few smart people already had some bright ideas that seem to have stood the test of time.
Power law
The so-called power law is the only long-term bitcoin price model that has a chance of survival for the years ahead. The idea behind the power law is very simple: over time, the rapid (exponential) initial growth cannot possibly be sustained (see The seduction of the exponential curve for a fun take on this). Year-on-year returns, therefore, must decrease over time, which leads us to the concept of diminishing returns and the power law. In this context, the power law translates to linear growth on a chart with both its axes scaled logarithmically. This is called the log-log chart (as opposed to the semilog chart you see above, on which only one of the axes - price - is logarithmic).
Log-log regression
When both price and time are scaled logarithmically, the power law leads to a linear relationship between them. This in turn allows us to apply linear regression techniques, which will find the best-fitting straight line to the data points in question. The result of performing this log-log regression (i.e. linear regression on a log-log scaled dataset) is two parameters: slope (m) and intercept (b). These parameters fully describe the relationship between price and time as follows: log(P) = m * log(T) + b, where P is price and T is time. Price is measured in US dollars , and Time is counted as the number of days elapsed since bitcoin 's genesis block.
DPC model
The final piece of our puzzle is the Dynamic Power Cycle (DPC) price model of bitcoin . DPC is a long-term cyclic model that uses the power law as its foundation, to which a periodic component stemming from the block subsidy halving cycle is applied dynamically. The regression parameters of this model are re-calculated daily to ensure longevity. For the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator, the slope and intercept parameters were calculated on publication date (March 6, 2022). The slope of the Resistance Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Nov 2021 cycle peak. The slope of the Support Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Dec 2018 trough of the previous cycle. Please see the Limitations section below on the implications of a static model.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Parameters
• Center Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the grey line in the middle
• Resistance Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the red line at the top
• Support Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the green line at the bottom
• Controls
• Plot Line Fill: N/A
• Plot Opportunity Label: Controls the display of current price level relative to the Center, Resistance and Support Lines
Style
• Visuals
• Center: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Center Line
• Resistance: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Resistance Line
• Support: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Support Line
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Upper Band
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Lower Band
• Labels: N/A
• Output
• Labels on price scale: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values on the price scale
• Values in status line: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values in the indicator's status line
█ HOW TO USE
The indicator includes three price lines:
• The grey Center Line in the middle shows the overall long-term bitcoin USD price trend
• The red Resistance Line at the top is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to meet strong long-term resistance
• The green Support Line at the bottom is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to receive strong long-term support
These lines envelope two price bands:
• The red Upper Band between the Center and Resistance Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered overbought (i.e. too expensive)
• The green Lower Band between the Support and Center Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered oversold (i.e. too cheap)
The power law model assumes that the price of bitcoin will fluctuate around the Center Line, by meeting resistance at the Resistance Line and finding support at the Support Line. When the current price is well below the Center Line (i.e. well into the green Lower Band), bitcoin is considered too cheap (oversold). When the current price is well above the Center Line (i.e. well into the red Upper Band), bitcoin is considered too expensive (overbought). This idea alone is not sufficient for profitable trading, but, when combined with other factors, it could guide the user's decision-making process in the right direction.
█ LIMITATIONS
The indicator is based on a static model, and for this reason it will gradually lose its usefulness. The Center Line is the most durable of the three lines since the long-term growth trend of bitcoin seems to deviate little from the power law. However, how far price extends above and below this line will change with every halving cycle (as can be seen for past cycles). Periodic updates will be needed to keep the indicator relevant. The user is invited to adjust the slope and intercept parameters manually between two updates of the indicator.
█ RAMBLINGS
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a useful tool for users wishing to place bitcoin in a macro context. As described above, the price level relative to the three lines is a rough indication of whether bitcoin is over- or undervalued. Users wishing to gain more insight into bitcoin price trends may follow the author's periodic updates of the DPC model (contact information below).
█ NOTES
The author regularly posts on Twitter using the @DeFi_initiate handle.
█ THANKS
Many thanks to the following individuals, who - one way or another - made the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator possible:
• TradingView user 'capriole_charles', whose open-source 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script was the basis for this indicator
• Harold Christopher Burger, whose Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth article (2019) was the basis for the 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script
• Bitcoin Forum user "Trololo", who posted the original power law model at Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value (2014)
Honey CypherHoney Cypher Aims to do 4 things
Momentum
Trend Strength
Overbought and oversold zones
Being the most beautiful indicator you ever see
Momentum
The big yellow honey waves primary use is to see the momentum of the market, they can be used in a similar way you would use a MACD or Chaikin Money Flow
On this image you see the honey waves being plotted to the 30 minute timeframe while on the 5 minute chart to have an understanding of longer time momentum in the chart.
Trend Strength
Most tools of the indicator can be used for that but the yellow and purple slope strength lines are made specificaly for this. When you see them curl down you know trend is strengthening towards the downside.
The candle color is based on the amount of Honey waves sloping in one direction. This might be the best tool in the indicator to find Trend Strength. Bright yellow candles mean strong bears while the bright blue candles mean strong bulls.
Overbought and oversold zones
By analysing the waves on a chart you start to learn how big waves can get before a reversal or consolidation period arrives.
You can become profitable with the indicator. But to be honest, my primary focus in making this indicator was find ways to visualise alot of data in a clear and beautiful way.
You should use the indicator with some out of the box ideas instead of just trusting the signals.
examples:
Find a head and shoulders pattern on the top of a huge honey wave.
Find a bottom small wave while the others honey waves are in the opposite direction for entering a pullback.
Use the honey for direction but the yellow and purple slope line crosses for entrys.
Comment your own strategys, I made this open source to be able to get community feedback.
The Honey Cypher waves are calculated in a similar way as the MACD histogram. I've combined MACD formula with some of the lazybear formula. It looks for the distance between 2 moving averages to find trend strength. After that the end results get's smoothed out. It is very satisfying to change that as you can see the honey waves create a melting like motion on each change of smoothing.
Below a preview of the honey cypher moving average lines, all lines have a length that is based on the fibonacci number sequence. Honey cypher measures the distance between for example length 5-8 averages.
I hope this inspires coders to create very beautiful scripts.
Support and Resistance with MACD IndicatorOriginal script from ©akpaswaniitk. I just added MACD to filter out bad trades and alert function so that we get notified whenever indicator gives us an entry signal. Most of the false breakout has been removed but the remaining ones only pop up during consolidation, so it's wait for the retest before entry. Works better in continuous market. Also look at the color of EMA for further confirmation, only focus on buy side when EMA is green and sell when EMA is red or when after the buy signal EMA changes color from red to green. These are the highly profitable setups I've found with this indicator.
Signals
Red or Green solid line with diamond are trailing stoploses
dotted black line is entry level
dotted white line is optimal exit
STR:EMA Oscilator [Azzrael]Strategy based on EMA and EMA Oscilator
(EMA - close) + Std Dev + Factor = detecting oversell/overbuy
Long only!
Pyramiding - sometimes, depends on ...
There're 2 enter strategies in one script:
1 - Classic, buy on entering to OverSell zone (more profitable ~> 70%)
2 - Crazy, buy on entering to OverBuy zone (catching trend and pyramiding, more net profit)
Exit - crossing zero of (EMA - close)
TrendsThe Trends indicator is created for trend trading and (Bitsgap) crypto bots of crypto assets over longer time periods.
Works best for 4h, Daily and Weekly candles (even Monthly), but unsuitable for hourly candles and day trading.
This indicator shows you if a crypto pair is in a Bear, Bull or Sideways market.
The idea is to simplify decision making when to sell or buy, or what pairs to use with trading bots.
Stick to the rule of not having bots in a Bear trend!
- Blue = Bull trend
- Red = Bear trend
- Green = Sideways trend - which can be profitable with trading bots
Price Clouds Oscillator (PCO)This is the oscillator version of Price Clouds (PS). Use this with (PS) for best results.
This indicator shows you over bought and over sold regions similarly to to rsi or stochastic. This indicator centers a moving average around the hl2 of the price. This is calculated as the difference of four moving averages. The signal line shows you how much momentum in any given direction you have. You can also see how much volatility there is by the band width. Just like the Bollinger band high volatility comes before low volatility and visa versa. You can also see what the market is doing based on the signal crosses. If the fast line is above the slow line you are going up and visa versa. This indicator works in most markets, especially crypto. There is a tool tip for every aspect of this indicator explaining how everything works.
Key Feature:
>See where the price is relative to a mean price
>Measure volatility
>Clean global settings
>Normalization feature lets you scale the band from 0 to 1. You loose some information but its easier to use if you aren't measuring volatility.
I hope you are very profitable with this one!
If you find this indicator is useful to you, Star it, Follow, Donate, Like and Share.
Your support is a highly motivation for me.
PCO
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