Bank CRE Stress & Short Risk Overlay + Dashboard🏦 Bank CRE Stress & Short Risk Overlay + Dashboard
This open-source indicator overlays risk visualization and a fixed dashboard specifically for **U.S. regional bank stocks** exposed to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) lending stress (as observed in 2023–2026 cycles).
It combines:
- Static CRE exposure tiers (critical/high/elevated/short-bias/failed) based on latest known CRE loan-to-capital ratios and provisions data (sourced from FDIC Call Reports, FAU studies, FFIEC filings ~Q3/Q4 2025)
- Real-time price stress detection (EMA200 breakdown + 20-bar range low breach)
- Visual alerts (background coloring + per-bar risk labels)
- Top-right summary dashboard
Purpose & Why This Combination?
Regional banks with heavy CRE concentration became focal points during rising office/vacancy stress, higher provisions, deposit outflows, and equity pressure. This tool helps traders quickly:
- Identify which tickers carry elevated CRE risk
- See when technical breakdown aligns with fundamental vulnerability (potential short setups or high-risk avoidance zones)
- Monitor a static watchlist without needing external spreadsheets
The mashup is useful because raw fundamentals change quarterly, while price action provides real-time confirmation of stress transmission to equity. Dashboard + overlay gives instant context on any bank chart.
How It Works
1. Ticker Classification (static – update manually when new Call Reports released)
- 🔴 Critical / Short Bias: >~500% CRE exposure or high-conviction short candidates
- 🟠 High: ~375–480%
- 🟡 Elevated: ~300–350%
- ❌ Failed: Known FDIC receivership cases
- 🟢 Low/None: not in list
2. Price Stress Trigger
- Below 200 EMA (major trend break)
- Below 20-bar lowest low (range breakdown)
- (Optional stricter filter: ATR expansion – commented out by default)
3. Visuals
- Background tint: black (failed), red (critical/short + stress), orange (high + stress), yellow (elevated + stress)
- Per-bar label above candle: risk category + warning text (only shown for relevant banks)
- EMA50 (gray) & EMA200 (white) plotted for reference
4. Dashboard (top-right, updates on last bar)
- Current ticker risk level + color coding
- Price stress status
- EMA200 position
- Static high-risk watchlist
- Data freshness & disclaimer note
Alerts
- "Critical/Short Bias Breakdown" when stress triggers on red/orange tickers
- "Failed Bank Symbol" on known failed tickers
How to Use
- Apply to **regional bank stocks** (DCOM, EGBN, OZK, LOB, VLY, FLG, ZION, WAL, SNV, RF, CMA, TFC, etc.)
- Best on daily or 4h charts for swing/position trading context
- Use as a **filter / watchlist aid**:
→ Red/orange background + stress label → heightened short risk or avoidance
→ Yellow → monitor for provisioning news or CRE delinquency spikes
→ Black → avoid (historical failures)
- Update the arrays quarterly when new FDIC data drops (Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 Call Reports)
- Combine with volume, news, sector ETFs (KRE), or broader CRE indices
Inputs & Customization
- No user inputs — risk tiers are hardcoded for simplicity & consistency
- To add/remove banks: edit the array.from() lines directly
Publishing Notes
- Publish with a clean chart (e.g., DCOM, EGBN or VLY daily/4h)
- Remove unnecessary drawings/indicators
- Screenshot showing dashboard + stress label during a breakdown period is ideal
Important Disclaimers
- Data is **static** and approximate (based on public reports up to ~Q3/Q4 2025)
- Must be manually updated — not real-time fundamental feed
- This is **not financial advice**, not investment research, and carries no accuracy guarantee
- Regional bank equities are extremely volatile — especially under CRE stress
- Trading or shorting involves substantial risk of loss
Open-source for transparency & educational use. Feedback welcome — especially updated CRE tier suggestions.
Pine Script®指標






















