BONK 1H Long Volatility StrategyGrok 1hr bonk strategy:
Key Changes and Why They’re Made
1. Indicator Adjustments
Moving Averages:
Fast MA: Changed to 5 periods (from, e.g., 9 on a higher timeframe).
Slow MA: Changed to 13 periods (from, e.g., 21).
Why: Shorter periods make the moving averages more sensitive to quick price changes on the 1-hour chart, helping identify trends faster.
ATR (Average True Range):
Length: Set to 10 periods (down from, e.g., 14).
Multiplier: Reduced to 1.5 (from, e.g., 2.0).
Why: A shorter ATR length tracks recent volatility better, and a lower multiplier lets the strategy catch smaller price swings, which are more common hourly.
RSI:
Kept at 14 periods with an overbought level of 70.
Why: RSI stays the same to filter out overbought conditions, maintaining consistency with the original strategy.
2. Entry Conditions
Trend: Requires the fast MA to be above the slow MA, ensuring a bullish direction.
Volatility: The candle’s range (high - low) must exceed 1.5 times the ATR, confirming a significant move.
Momentum: RSI must be below 70, avoiding entries at potential peaks.
Price: The close must be above the fast MA, signaling a pullback or trend continuation.
Why: These conditions are tightened to capture frequent volatility spikes while filtering out noise, which is more prevalent on a 1-hour chart.
3. Exit Strategy
Profit Target: Default is 5% (adjustable from 3-7%).
Stop-Loss: Default is 3% (adjustable from 1-5%).
Why: These levels remain conservative to lock in gains quickly and limit losses, suitable for the faster pace of a 1-hour timeframe.
4. Risk Management
The strategy may trigger more trades on a 1-hour chart. To avoid overtrading:
The ATR filter ensures only volatile moves are traded.
Trading fees (e.g., 0.5% on Coinbase) reduce the net profit to ~4% on winners and -3.5% on losers, requiring a win rate above 47% for profitability.
Suggestion: Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade to manage exposure.
5. Visuals and Alerts
Plots: Blue fast MA, red slow MA, and green triangles for buy signals.
Alerts: Trigger when an entry condition is met, so you don’t need to watch the chart constantly.
How to Use the Strategy
Setup:
Load TradingView, select BONK/USD on the 1-hour chart (Coinbase pair).
Paste the script into the Pine Editor and add it to your chart.
Customize:
Adjust the profit target (e.g., 5%) and stop-loss (e.g., 3%) to your preference.
Tweak ATR or MA lengths if BONK’s volatility shifts.
Trade:
Look for green triangle signals and confirm with market context (e.g., volume or news).
Enter trades manually or via TradingView’s broker tools if supported.
Exit when the profit target or stop-loss is hit.
Test:
Use TradingView’s Strategy Tester to backtest on historical data and refine settings.
Benefits of the 1-Hour Timeframe
Faster Opportunities: Captures shorter-term uptrends in BONK’s volatile price action.
Responsive: Adjusted indicators react quickly to hourly changes.
Conservative: Maintains the 3-7% profit goal with tight risk control.
Potential Challenges
Noise: The 1-hour chart has more false signals. The ATR and MA filters help, but caution is needed.
Fees: Frequent trading increases costs, so ensure each trade’s potential justifies the expense.
Volatility: BONK can move unpredictably—monitor broader market trends or Solana ecosystem news.
Final Thoughts
Switching to a 1-hour timeframe makes the strategy more active, targeting shorter volatility spikes while keeping profits conservative at 3-7%. The adjusted indicators and conditions balance responsiveness with reliability. Backtest it on TradingView to confirm it suits BONK’s behavior, and always use proper risk management, as meme coins are highly speculative.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading, especially with assets like BONK, is risky. Test thoroughly and trade responsibly.
在腳本中搜尋"stop loss"
RSI Failure Swing Pattern (with Alerts & Targets)RSI Failure Swing Pattern Indicator – Detailed Description
Overview
The RSI Failure Swing Pattern Indicator is a trend reversal detection tool based on the principles of failure swings in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicator identifies key reversal signals by analyzing RSI swings and confirming trend shifts using predefined overbought and oversold conditions.
Failure swing patterns are one of the strongest RSI-based reversal signals, initially introduced by J. Welles Wilder. This indicator detects these patterns and provides clear buy/sell signals with labeled entry, stop-loss, and profit target levels. The tool is designed to work across all timeframes and assets.
How the Indicator Works
The RSI Failure Swing Pattern consists of two key structures:
1. Bullish Failure Swing (Buy Signal)
Occurs when RSI enters oversold territory (below 30), recovers, forms a higher low above the oversold level, and finally breaks above the intermediate swing high in RSI.
Step 1: RSI dips below 30 (oversold condition).
Step 2: RSI rebounds and forms a local peak.
Step 3: RSI retraces but does not go below the previous low (higher low confirmation).
Step 4: RSI breaks above the previous peak, confirming a bullish trend reversal.
Buy signal is triggered at the breakout above the RSI peak.
2. Bearish Failure Swing (Sell Signal)
Occurs when RSI enters overbought territory (above 70), declines, forms a lower high below the overbought level, and then breaks below the intermediate swing low in RSI.
Step 1: RSI rises above 70 (overbought condition).
Step 2: RSI declines and forms a local trough.
Step 3: RSI bounces but fails to exceed the previous high (lower high confirmation).
Step 4: RSI breaks below the previous trough, confirming a bearish trend reversal.
Sell signal is triggered at the breakdown below the RSI trough.
Features of the Indicator
Custom RSI Settings: Adjustable RSI length (default 14), overbought/oversold levels.
Buy & Sell Signals: Buy/sell signals are plotted directly on the price chart.
Entry, Stop-Loss, and Profit Targets:
Entry: Price at the breakout of the RSI failure swing pattern.
Stop-Loss: Lowest low (for buy) or highest high (for sell) of the previous two bars.
Profit Targets: Two levels calculated based on Risk-Reward ratios (1:1 and 1:2 by default, customizable).
Labeled Price Levels:
Entry Price Line (Blue): Marks the point of trade entry.
Stop-Loss Line (Red): Shows the calculated stop-loss level.
Target 1 Line (Orange): Profit target at 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
Target 2 Line (Green): Profit target at 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
Alerts for Trade Execution:
Buy/Sell signals trigger alerts for real-time notifications.
Alerts fire when price reaches stop-loss or profit targets.
Works on Any Timeframe & Asset: Suitable for stocks, forex, crypto, indices, and commodities.
Why Use This Indicator?
Highly Reliable Reversal Signals: Unlike simple RSI overbought/oversold strategies, failure swings filter out false breakouts and provide strong confirmation of trend reversals.
Risk Management Built-In: Stop-loss and take-profit levels are automatically set based on historical price action and risk-reward considerations.
Easy-to-Use Visualization: Clearly marked entry, stop-loss, and profit target levels make it beginner-friendly while still being valuable for experienced traders.
How to Trade with the Indicator
Buy Trade Example (Bullish Failure Swing)
RSI drops below 30 and recovers.
RSI forms a higher low and then breaks above the previous peak.
Entry: Buy when RSI crosses above its previous peak.
Stop-Loss: Set below the lowest low of the previous two candles.
Profit Targets:
Target 1 (1:1 Risk-Reward Ratio)
Target 2 (1:2 Risk-Reward Ratio)
Sell Trade Example (Bearish Failure Swing)
RSI rises above 70 and then declines.
RSI forms a lower high and then breaks below the previous trough.
Entry: Sell when RSI crosses below its previous trough.
Stop-Loss: Set above the highest high of the previous two candles.
Profit Targets:
Target 1 (1:1 Risk-Reward Ratio)
Target 2 (1:2 Risk-Reward Ratio)
Final Thoughts
The RSI Failure Swing Pattern Indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to identify high-probability trend reversals. By using the RSI failure swing concept along with built-in risk management tools, this indicator provides a structured approach to trading with clear entry and exit points. Whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor, this indicator helps in capturing momentum shifts while minimizing risk.
Would you like any modifications or additional features? 🚀
Adaptive RSI with Real-Time Divergence [AIBitcoinTrend]👽 Adaptive RSI Trailing Stop (AIBitcoinTrend)
The Adaptive RSI Trailing Stop is an indicator that integrates Gaussian-weighted RSI calculations with real-time divergence detection and a dynamic ATR-based trailing stop. This advanced approach allows traders to monitor momentum shifts, identify divergences early, and manage risk with adaptive trailing stop levels that adjust to price action.
👽 What Makes the Adaptive RSI with Signals and Trailing Stop Unique?
Unlike traditional RSI indicators, this version applies a Gaussian-weighted smoothing algorithm, making it more responsive to price action while reducing noise. Additionally, the trailing stop feature dynamically adjusts based on volatility and trend conditions, allowing traders to:
Detects real-time divergences (bullish/bearish) with a smart pivot-based system.
Filter noise with Gaussian weighting, ensuring smoother RSI transitions.
Utilize crossover-based trailing stop activation, for systematic trade management.
👽 The Math Behind the Indicator
👾 Gaussian Weighted RSI Calculation
Traditional RSI calculations rely on simple averages of gains and losses. Instead, this indicator weights recent price changes using a Gaussian distribution, prioritizing more relevant data points while maintaining smooth transitions.
Key Features:
Exponential decay ensures recent price changes are weighted more heavily.
Reduces short-term noise while maintaining responsiveness.
👾 Real-Time Divergence Detection
The indicator detects bullish and bearish divergences using pivot points on RSI compared to price action.
👾 Dynamic ATR-Based Trailing Stop
Bullish Trailing Stop: Activates when RSI crosses above 20 and dynamically adjusts based on low - ATR multiplier.
Bearish Trailing Stop: Activates when RSI crosses below 80 and adjusts based on high + ATR multiplier
This allows traders to:
Lock in profits systematically by adjusting stop-losses dynamically.
Stay in trades longer while maintaining adaptive risk management.
👽 How It Adapts to Market Movements
✔️ Gaussian Filtering ensures smooth RSI transitions while preventing excessive lag.
✔️ Real-Time Divergence Alerts provide early trade signals based on price-RSI discrepancies.
✔️ ATR Trailing Stop dynamically expands or contracts based on market volatility.
✔️ Crossover-Based Activation enables the stop-loss system only when RSI confirms a momentum shift.
👽 How Traders Can Use This Indicator
👾 Divergence Trading
Traders can use real-time divergence detection to anticipate reversals before they happen.
Bullish Divergence Setup:
Look for RSI making a higher low, while price makes a lower low.
Enter long when RSI confirms upward momentum.
Bearish Divergence Setup:
Look for RSI making a lower high, while price makes a higher high.
Enter short when RSI confirms downward momentum.
👾 Trailing Stop Signals
Bullish Signal and Trailing Stop Activation:
When RSI crosses above 20, a trailing stop is placed using low - ATR multiplier.
If price crosses below the stop, it exits the trade and removes the stop.
Bearish Signal and Trailing Stop Activation:
When RSI crosses below 80, a trailing stop is placed using high + ATR multiplier.
If price crosses above the stop, it exits the trade and removes the stop.
This makes trend-following strategies more efficient, while ensuring proper risk management.
👽 Why It’s Useful for Traders
✔️ Dynamic and Adaptive: Adjusts to changing market conditions automatically.
✔️ Noise Reduction: Gaussian-weighted RSI reduces short-term price distortions.
✔️ Comprehensive Strategy Tool: Combines momentum detection, divergence analysis, and automated risk management into a single indicator.
✔️ Works Across Markets & Timeframes: Suitable for stocks, forex, crypto, and futures trading.
👽 Indicator Settings
RSI Length: Defines the lookback period for RSI smoothing.
Gaussian Sigma: Controls how much weight is given to recent data points.
Enable Signal Line: Option to display an RSI-based moving average.
Divergence Lookback: Configures how far back pivot points are detected.
Crossover/crossunder values for signals: Set the crossover/crossunder values that triggers signals.
ATR Multiplier: Adjusts trailing stop sensitivity to market volatility.
Disclaimer: This indicator is designed for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Price Action Trend and Margin EquityThe Price Action Trend and Margin Equity indicator is a multifunctional market analysis tool that combines elements of money management and price pattern analysis. The indicator helps traders identify key price action patterns and determine optimal entry, exit and stop loss levels based on the current trend.
The main components of the indicator:
Money Management:
Allows the trader to set risk management parameters such as the percentage of possible loss on the position, the use of fixed leverage and the total capital.
Calculates the required leverage level to achieve a specified percentage of loss.
Price Action:
Correctly identifies various price patterns such as Pin Bar, Engulfing Bar, PPR Bar and Inside Bar.
Displays these patterns on the chart with the ability to customize candle colors and display styles.
Allows the trader to customize take profit and stop loss points to display them on the chart.
The ability to display patterns only in the direction of the trend.
Trend: (some code taken from ChartPrime)
Uses a trend cloud to visualize the current market direction.
The trend cloud is displayed on the chart and helps traders determine whether the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend.
Alert:
Allows you to set an alert that will be triggered when the pattern is formed.
Example of use:
Let's say a trader uses the indicator to trade the crypto market. He sets the money management parameters, setting the maximum loss per position to 5% and using a fixed leverage of 1:100. The indicator automatically calculates the required position size to meet these parameters ($: on the label). Or displays the leverage (X: on the label) to achieve the required risk.
The trader receives an alert when a Pin Bar is formed. The indicator displays the entry, exit, and stop loss levels based on this pattern. The trader opens a position for the recommended amount in the direction indicated by the indicator and sets the stop loss and take profit at the recommended levels.
General Settings:
Position Loss Percentage: Sets the maximum loss percentage you are willing to take on a single position.
Use Fixed Leverage: Enables or disables the use of fixed leverage.
Fixed Leverage: Sets the fixed leverage level.
Total Equity: Specifies the total equity you are using for trading. (Required for calculation when using fixed leverage)
Turn Patterns On/Off: You can turn on or off the display of various price patterns such as Pin Bar, Outside Bar (Engulfing), Inside Bar, and PPR Bar.
Pattern Colors: Sets the colors for displaying each pattern on the chart.
Candle Color: Allows you to set a neutral color for candles that do not match the price action.
Show Lines: Allows you to turn on or off the display of labels and lines.
Line Length: Sets the length of the stop, entry, and take profit lines.
Label color: One color for all labels (configured below) or the color of the labels in the color of the candle pattern.
Pin entry: Select the entry point for the pin bar: candle head, bar close, or 50% of the candle.
Coefficients for stop and take lines.
Use trend for price action: When enabled, will show price action signals only in the direction of the trend.
Display trend cloud: Enables or disables the display of the trend cloud.
Cloud calculation period: Sets the period for which the maximum and minimum values for the cloud are calculated. The longer the period, the smoother the cloud will be.
Cloud colors: Sets the colors for uptrends and downtrends, as well as the transparency of the cloud.
The logic of the indicator:
Pin Bar is a candle with a long upper or lower shadow and a short body.
Logic: If the length of one shadow is twice the body and the opposite shadow of the candle, it is considered a Pin Bar.
An Inside Bar is a candle that is completely engulfed by the previous candle.
Logic: If the high and low of the current candle are inside the previous candle, it is an Inside Bar.
An Outside Bar or Engulfing is a candle that completely engulfs the previous candle.
Logic: If the high and low of the current candle are outside the previous candle and close outside the previous candle, it is an Outside Bar.
A PPR Bar is a candle that closes above or below the previous candle.
Logic: If the current candle closes above the high of the previous candle or below its low, it is a PPR Bar.
Stop Loss Levels: Calculated based on the specified ratios. If set to 1.0, it shows the correct stop for the pattern by pushing away from the entry point.
Take Profit Levels: Calculated based on the specified ratios.
Create a Label: The label is created at the stop loss level and contains information about the potential leverage and loss.
The formula for calculating the $ value is:
=(Total Capital x (Maximum Loss Percentage on Position/100)) / (Difference between Entry Level and Stop Loss Level × Ratio that sets the stop loss level relative to the length of the candlestick shadow × Fixed Leverage Value) .
Labels contain the following information:
The percentage of price change from the recommended entry point to the stop loss level.
Required Leverage (X: ): The amount of leverage required to achieve the specified loss percentage. (Or a fixed value if selected).
Required Capital ($: ): The amount of capital required to open a position with the specified leverage and loss percentage (only displayed when using fixed leverage).
The trend cloud identifies the maximum and minimum price values for the specified period.
The cloud value is set depending on whether the current price is equal to the high or low values.
If the current closing price is equal to the high value, the cloud is set at the low value, and vice versa.
RU
Индикатор "Price Action Trend and Margin Equity" представляет собой многофункциональный инструмент для анализа рынка, объединяющий в себе элементы управления капиталом и анализа ценовых паттернов. Индикатор помогает трейдерам идентифицировать ключевые прайс экшн паттерны и определять оптимальные уровни входа, выхода и стоп-лосс на основе текущего тренда.
Основные компоненты индикатора:
Управление капиталом:
Позволяет трейдеру задавать параметры управления рисками, такие как процент возможного убытка по позиции, использование фиксированного плеча и общий капитал.
Рассчитывает необходимый уровень плеча для достижения заданного процента убытка.
Price Action:
Правильно идентифицирует различные ценовые паттерны, такие как Pin Bar, Поглащение Бар, PPR Bar и Внутренний Бар.
Отображает эти паттерны на графике с возможностью настройки цветов свечей и стилей отображения.
Позволяет трейдеру настраивать точки тейк профита и стоп лосса для отображения их на графике.
Возможность отображения паттернов только в натправлении тренда.
Trend: (часть кода взята у ChartPrime)
Использует облако тренда для визуализации текущего направления рынка.
Облако тренда отображается на графике и помогает трейдерам определить, находится ли рынок в восходящем или нисходящем тренде.
Оповещение:
Дает возможность установить оповещение которое будет срабатывать при формировании паттерна.
Пример применения:
Предположим, трейдер использует индикатор для торговли на крипто рынке. Он настраивает параметры управления капиталом, устанавливая максимальный убыток по позиции в 5% и используя фиксированное плечо 1:100. Индикатор автоматически рассчитывает необходимый объем позиции для соблюдения этих параметров ($: на лейбле). Или отображает плечо (Х: на лейбле) для достижения необходимого риска.
Трейдер получает оповещение о формировании Pin Bar. Индикатор отображает уровни входа, выхода и стоп-лосс, основанные на этом паттерне. Трейдер открывает позицию на рекомендуемую сумму в направлении, указанном индикатором, и устанавливает стоп-лосс и тейк-профит на рекомендованных уровнях.
Общие настройки:
Процент убытка по позиции: Устанавливает максимальный процент убытка, который вы готовы понести по одной позиции.
Использовать фиксированное плечо: Включает или отключает использование фиксированного плеча.
Уровень фиксированного плеча: Задает уровень фиксированного плеча.
Общий капитал: Указывает общий капитал, который вы используете для торговли. (Необходим для расчета при использовании фиксированного плеча)
Включение/отключение паттернов: Вы можете включить или отключить отображение различных ценовых паттернов, таких как Pin Bar, Outside Bar (Поглощение), Inside Bar и PPR Bar.
Цвета паттернов: Задает цвета для отображения каждого паттерна на графике.
Цвет свечей: Позволяет задать нейтральный цвет для свечей неподходящих под прйс экшн.
Показывать линии: Позволяет включить или отключить отображение лейблов и линий.
Длинна линий: Настройка длинны линий стопа, линии входа и тейк профита.
Цвет лейбла: Один цвет для всех лейблов (настраивается ниже) или цвет лейблов в цвет паттерна свечи.
Вход в пин: Выбор точки входа для пин бара: голова свечи, точка закрытия бара или 50% свечи.
Коэффиценты для стоп и тейк линий.
Использовать тренд для прайс экшна: При включении будет показывать прайс экшн сигналы только в направлении тренда.
Отображение облака тренда: Включает или отключает отображение облака тренда.
Период расчета облака: Устанавливает период, за который рассчитываются максимальные и минимальные значения для облака. Чем больше период, тем более сглаженным будет облако.
Цвета облака: Задает цвета для восходящего и нисходящего трендов, а также прозрачность облака.
Логика работы индикатора:
Pin Bar — это свеча с длинной верхней или нижней тенью и коротким телом.
Логика: Если длина одной тени вдвое больше тела и противоположной тени свечи, считается, что это Pin Bar.
Inside Bar — это свеча, полностью поглощенная предыдущей свечой.
Логика: Если максимум и минимум текущей свечи находятся внутри предыдущей свечи, это Inside Bar.
Outside Bar или Поглощение — это свеча, которая полностью поглощает предыдущую свечу.
Логика: Если максимум и минимум текущей свечи выходят за пределы предыдущей свечи и закрывается за пределами предыдущей свечи, это Outside Bar.
PPR Bar — это свеча, которая закрывается выше или ниже предыдущей свечи.
Логика: Если текущая свеча закрывается выше максимума предыдущей свечи или ниже ее минимума, это PPR Bar.
Уровни стоп-лосс: Рассчитываются на основе заданных коэффициентов. При значении 1.0 показывает правильный стоп для паттерна отталкиваясь от точки входа.
Уровки тейк-профита: Рассчитываются на основе заданных коэффициентов.
Создание метки: Метка создается на уровне стоп-лосс и содержит информацию о потенциальном плече и убытке.
Формула для вычисления значения $:
=(Общий капитал x (Максимальный процент убытка по позиции/100)) / (Разница между уровнем входа и уровнем стоп-лосс × Коэффициент, задающий уровень стоп-лосс относительно длины тени свечи × Значение фиксированного плеча).
Метки содержат следующую информацию:
Процент изменения цены от рекомендованной точки входа до уровня стоп-лосс.
Необходимое плечо (Х: ): Уровень плеча, необходимый для достижения заданного процента убытка. (Или фиксированное значение если оно выбрано).
Необходимый капитал ($: ): Сумма капитала, необходимая для открытия позиции с заданным плечом и процентом убытка (отображается только при использовании фиксированного плеча).
Облако тренда определяет максимальные и минимальные значения цены за указанный период.
Значение облака устанавливается в зависимости от того, совпадает ли текущая цена с максимальными или минимальными значениями.
Если текущая цена закрытия равна максимальному значению, облако устанавливается на уровне минимального значения, и наоборот.
ATR Trailing Stop by GideonMATR Trailing Stop Indicator
This ATR Trailing Stop Indicator is designed for traders who wish to enhance their exit strategies by leveraging volatility-based stops. It offers a systematic approach to trend management and risk control, enabling traders to capture extended trends while protecting their capital during market reversals. Works on Indian Indices as well.
Overview:
The ATR Trailing Stop indicator is a dynamic trend-following tool that adjusts stop levels based on market volatility. By incorporating the Average True Range (ATR), the indicator provides a flexible exit strategy that adapts to changing market conditions, helping traders lock in profits during trends and limit losses during reversals.
How It Works:
True Range and ATR Calculation:
The indicator first calculates the True Range (TR) for each bar, defined as the maximum of:
The difference between the high and low,
The absolute difference between the high and the previous close, and
The absolute difference between the low and the previous close.
Using the TR values, the ATR is computed over a user-defined period (default is 14 bars) with an option to use either a Simple Moving Average (SMA) or an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as the smoothing method.
Trailing Stop Determination:
Two potential stop levels are calculated:
For an uptrend, the stop is determined as:
Stop = Close – (Multiplier × ATR)
For a downtrend, the stop is:
Stop = Close + (Multiplier × ATR)
The indicator maintains a persistent trailing stop that dynamically adjusts:
In an uptrend, the trailing stop only moves upward (or remains flat) to secure gains.
In a downtrend, it only moves downward, thereby protecting the position from excessive losses.
A reversal in trend is identified when the price crosses the trailing stop level, at which point the indicator flips the trend and resets the stop level accordingly.
Rationale:
Utilizing the ATR for trailing stops ensures that the stop levels are directly influenced by market volatility. This dynamic adjustment helps accommodate the natural price fluctuations of the market, providing a more adaptive risk management tool compared to fixed stop-loss levels. The approach is particularly useful in volatile markets where traditional static stops might be triggered prematurely.
Customization:
Key parameters that can be adjusted include:
ATR Period: The number of bars used to calculate the ATR.
ATR Multiplier: The factor that determines how far the trailing stop is set from the current price.
Smoothing Method: Option to choose between SMA and EMA for ATR calculation, allowing traders to tailor the sensitivity of the indicator to their specific trading style.
CandelaCharts - Swing Failure Pattern (SFP)# SWING FAILURE PATTERN
📝 Overview
The Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) indicator is designed to identify and highlight Swing Failure Patterns on a user’s chart. This pattern typically emerges when significant market participants generate liquidity by driving price action to key levels. An SFP occurs when the price temporarily breaks above a resistance level or below a support level, only to quickly reverse and return within the previous range. These movements are often associated with stop-loss hunting or liquidity grabs, providing traders with potential opportunities to anticipate reversals or key market turning points.
A Bullish SFP occurs when the price dips below a key support level, triggering stop-loss orders, but then swiftly reverses upward, signaling a potential upward trend or reversal.
A Bearish SFP happens when the price spikes above a key resistance level, triggering stop-losses of short positions, but then quickly reverses downward, indicating a potential bearish trend or reversal.
The indicator is a powerful tool for traders, helping to identify liquidity grabs and potential reversal points in real-time. Marking bullish and bearish Swing Failure Patterns on the chart, it provides clear visual cues for spotting market traps set by major players, enabling more informed trading decisions and improved risk management.
📦 Features
Bullish/Bearish SFPs
Styling
⚙️ Settings
Length: Determines the detection length of each SFP
Bullish SFP: Displays the bullish SFPs
Bearish SFP: Displays the bearish SFPs
Label: Controls the size of the label
⚡️ Showcase
Bullish
Bearish
Both
📒 Usage
The best approach is to combine a few complementary indicators to gain a clearer market perspective. This doesn’t mean relying on the Golden Cross, RSI divergences, SFPs, and funding rates simultaneously, but rather focusing on one or two that align well in a given scenario.
The example above demonstrates the confluence of a Bearish Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) with an RSI divergence. This combination strengthens the signal, as the Bearish SFP indicates a potential reversal after a liquidity grab, while the RSI divergence confirms weakening momentum at the key level. Together, these indicators provide a more robust setup for identifying potential market reversals with greater confidence.
🚨 Alerts
This script provides alert options for all signals.
Bearish Signal
A bearish signal is triggered when a Bearish SFP is formed.
Bullish Signal
A bullish signal is triggered when a Bullish SFP is formed.
⚠️ Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk, and many participants may incur losses. The content on this site is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Decisions to buy, sell, hold, or trade securities, commodities, or other financial instruments carry inherent risks and are best made with guidance from qualified financial professionals. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
4Vietnamese 3x SupertrendThis strategy attempts to capture long positions in the Vietnamese stock market using a combination of three Supertrend indicators and additional filters. It utilizes pyramiding to enter up to three long positions with a 33.33% allocation each.
Key Elements:
Supertrend Indicators: Three Supertrend indicators are used with different lengths and multipliers to identify potential trend changes.
Entry Conditions:
The strategy looks for a downtrend on the slowest Supertrend (Supertrend3) followed by uptrends on the medium (Supertrend2) and fast (Supertrend1) Supertrends.
Alternatively, if Supertrend3 is still downtrending, but Supertrend1 is downtrending and a significant previous high (highestGreen) exists, an entry signal is generated.
An optional filter allows using the highest of the last two red candles for highestGreen calculation.
Entry Stop Loss:
An optional stop loss can be set based on the entry price of previous long positions, preventing further losses if the price falls below entry prices.
Exit Conditions:
Three exit options are available:
- All Downtrend Exit: Close all positions if all Supertrends turn uptrend and a bearish candlestick pattern (close price lower than open price) is formed.
- Average Price in Loss Exit: Close all positions if the average entry price of open positions is higher than the current closing price (indicating a loss).
- All Positions in Loss Exit: Close all positions if any of the following conditions are met:
A single open position exists, and its entry price is higher than the current close price.
Two open positions exist, and their entry prices are both higher than the current close price.
Three open positions exist, and their entry prices are all higher than the current close price.
Pyramiding: The strategy allows entering up to three long positions with a fixed allocation of 33.33% each.
Customization Options:
The strategy provides various input parameters to customize its behavior:
Supertrend lengths and multipliers for each indicator.
Option to use the highest of the last two red candles for highestGreen calculation.
Enabling/disabling Entry Stop Loss and different exit conditions.
Further Enhancements:
Explore additional entry and exit filters to refine trade signals.
Consider incorporating risk management techniques like position sizing and trailing stops.
Backtest the strategy with historical data to evaluate its effectiveness and identify potential areas for improvement.
Lot Size & Risk Calculator (All Pairs)this indicator is designed to simplify and optimize risk management. It automatically calculates the ideal lot size based on your account balance, risk percentage, and defined entry and exit levels. Additionally, it includes visual tools to represent stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) levels, helping you trade with precision and consistency.
WHAT IS THIS INDICATOR FOR?
This indicator is essential for traders who want to:
Maintain consistent risk in their trades.
Quickly calculate lot sizes for Forex, XAUUSD, BTCUSD, and US100.
Visualize key levels (Entry, SL, and TP) on the chart.
Monitor potential losses and gains in real time.
COMPATIBLE ASSETS
The Lot Size Calculator works with the following assets:
Forex: Standard currency pairs.
XAUUSD: Gold versus the US dollar.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin versus the US dollar.
US100: Nasdaq 100 index.
Calculations adjust automatically based on the selected asset.
TAKE-PROFIT (TP) LEVELS
The indicator allows you to define up to three take-profit levels:
TP1
TP2
TP3
.
Each level is configurable based on your exit strategy.
DASHBOARD
The dashboard is a visual tool that consolidates key information about your trade:
Account balance: Total amount available in your account.
Lot size: Calculated based on your risk and parameters.
Potential loss (SL): Amount you could lose if the price hits your stop-loss.
Potential gain (TP): Expected profit if the take-profit level is reached.
SETTINGS
The indicator offers multiple configurable options to adapt to your trading style:
Levels
Entry: Initial trade price.
Stop-Loss (SL): Maximum allowed loss level.
Take-Profit (TP): Up to three configurable levels.
Risk Management
Account balance ($): Enter your total available balance.
Risk percentage: Define how much you're willing to risk per trade
.
Visual Options
Visualization style: Choose between simple lines or visual fills.
Colors: Customize the colors of lines and labels.
Dashboard Settings
Statistics: Enable or disable key data display.
Size and position: Adjust the dashboard's size and location on the chart.
HOW TO CHANGE AN ENTRY?
Open the indicator settings in TradingView and entering the new data manually
Removing and re-adding the indicator to the chart
Mean Reversion Cloud (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) // AlgoFyreThe Mean Reversion Cloud (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) indicator detects mean-reversion opportunities by applying the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. It calculates a dynamic mean using an Exponential Weighted Moving Average, surrounded by volatility bands, signaling potential buy/sell points when prices deviate.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
🔶 ORIGINALITY
🔸Adaptive Mean Calculation
🔸Volatility-Based Cloud
🔸Speed of Reversion (θ)
🔶 FUNCTIONALITY
🔸Dynamic Mean and Volatility Bands
🞘 How it works
🞘 How to calculate
🞘 Code extract
🔸Visualization via Table and Plotshapes
🞘 Table Overview
🞘 Plotshapes Explanation
🞘 Code extract
🔶 INSTRUCTIONS
🔸Step-by-Step Guidelines
🞘 Setting Up the Indicator
🞘 Understanding What to Look For on the Chart
🞘 Possible Entry Signals
🞘 Possible Take Profit Strategies
🞘 Possible Stop-Loss Levels
🞘 Additional Tips
🔸Customize settings
🔶 CONCLUSION
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🔶 ORIGINALITY The Mean Reversion Cloud (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) is a unique indicator that applies the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process to identify mean-reverting behavior in asset prices. Unlike traditional moving average-based indicators, this model uses an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) to calculate the long-term mean, dynamically adjusting to recent price movements while still considering all historical data. It also incorporates volatility bands, providing a "cloud" that visually highlights overbought or oversold conditions. By calculating the speed of mean reversion (θ) through the autocorrelation of log returns, this indicator offers traders a more nuanced and mathematically robust tool for identifying mean-reversion opportunities. These innovations make it especially useful for markets that exhibit range-bound characteristics, offering timely buy and sell signals based on statistical deviations from the mean.
🔸Adaptive Mean Calculation Traditional MA indicators use fixed lengths, which can lead to lagging signals or over-sensitivity in volatile markets. The Mean Reversion Cloud uses an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), which adapts to price movements by dynamically adjusting its calculation, offering a more responsive mean.
🔸Volatility-Based Cloud Unlike simple moving averages that only plot a single line, the Mean Reversion Cloud surrounds the dynamic mean with volatility bands. These bands, based on standard deviations, provide traders with a visual cue of when prices are statistically likely to revert, highlighting potential reversal zones.
🔸Speed of Reversion (θ) The indicator goes beyond price averages by calculating the speed at which the price reverts to the mean (θ), using the autocorrelation of log returns. This gives traders an additional tool for estimating the likelihood and timing of mean reversion, making the signals more reliable in practice.
🔶 FUNCTIONALITY The Mean Reversion Cloud (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) indicator is designed to detect potential mean-reversion opportunities in asset prices by applying the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process. It calculates a dynamic mean through the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) and plots volatility bands based on the standard deviation of the asset's price over a specified period. These bands create a "cloud" that represents expected price fluctuations, helping traders to identify overbought or oversold conditions. By calculating the speed of reversion (θ) from the autocorrelation of log returns, the indicator offers a more refined way of assessing how quickly prices may revert to the mean. Additionally, the inclusion of volatility provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, allowing for more accurate buy and sell signals.
Let's dive into the details:
🔸Dynamic Mean and Volatility Bands The dynamic mean (μ) is calculated using the EWMA, giving more weight to recent prices but considering all historical data. This process closely resembles the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, which models the tendency of a stochastic variable (such as price) to revert to its mean over time. Volatility bands are plotted around the mean using standard deviation, forming the "cloud" that signals overbought or oversold conditions. The cloud adapts dynamically to price fluctuations and market volatility, making it a versatile tool for mean-reversion strategies. 🞘 How it works Step one: Calculate the dynamic mean (μ) The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process describes how a variable, such as an asset's price, tends to revert to a long-term mean while subject to random fluctuations. In this indicator, the EWMA is used to compute the dynamic mean (μ), mimicking the mean-reverting behavior of the OU process. Use the EWMA formula to compute a weighted mean that adjusts to recent price movements. Assign exponentially decreasing weights to older data while giving more emphasis to current prices. Step two: Plot volatility bands Calculate the standard deviation of the price over a user-defined period to determine market volatility. Position the upper and lower bands around the mean by adding and subtracting a multiple of the standard deviation. 🞘 How to calculate Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA)
The EWMA dynamically adjusts to recent price movements:
mu_t = lambda * mu_{t-1} + (1 - lambda) * P_t
Where mu_t is the mean at time t, lambda is the decay factor, and P_t is the price at time t. The higher the decay factor, the more weight is given to recent data.
Autocorrelation (ρ) and Standard Deviation (σ)
To measure mean reversion speed and volatility: rho = correlation(log(close), log(close ), length) Where rho is the autocorrelation of log returns over a specified period.
To calculate volatility:
sigma = stdev(close, length)
Where sigma is the standard deviation of the asset's closing price over a specified length.
Upper and Lower Bands
The upper and lower bands are calculated as follows:
upper_band = mu + (threshold * sigma)
lower_band = mu - (threshold * sigma)
Where threshold is a multiplier for the standard deviation, usually set to 2. These bands represent the range within which the price is expected to fluctuate, based on current volatility and the mean.
🞘 Code extract // Calculate Returns
returns = math.log(close / close )
// Calculate Long-Term Mean (μ) using EWMA over the entire dataset
var float ewma_mu = na // Initialize ewma_mu as 'na'
ewma_mu := na(ewma_mu ) ? close : decay_factor * ewma_mu + (1 - decay_factor) * close
mu = ewma_mu
// Calculate Autocorrelation at Lag 1
rho1 = ta.correlation(returns, returns , corr_length)
// Ensure rho1 is within valid range to avoid errors
rho1 := na(rho1) or rho1 <= 0 ? 0.0001 : rho1
// Calculate Speed of Mean Reversion (θ)
theta = -math.log(rho1)
// Calculate Volatility (σ)
sigma = ta.stdev(close, corr_length)
// Calculate Upper and Lower Bands
upper_band = mu + threshold * sigma
lower_band = mu - threshold * sigma
🔸Visualization via Table and Plotshapes
The table shows key statistics such as the current value of the dynamic mean (μ), the number of times the price has crossed the upper or lower bands, and the consecutive number of bars that the price has remained in an overbought or oversold state.
Plotshapes (diamonds) are used to signal buy and sell opportunities. A green diamond below the price suggests a buy signal when the price crosses below the lower band, and a red diamond above the price indicates a sell signal when the price crosses above the upper band.
The table and plotshapes provide a comprehensive visualization, combining both statistical and actionable information to aid decision-making.
🞘 Code extract // Reset consecutive_bars when price crosses the mean
var consecutive_bars = 0
if (close < mu and close >= mu) or (close > mu and close <= mu)
consecutive_bars := 0
else if math.abs(deviation) > 0
consecutive_bars := math.min(consecutive_bars + 1, dev_length)
transparency = math.max(0, math.min(100, 100 - (consecutive_bars * 100 / dev_length)))
🔶 INSTRUCTIONS
The Mean Reversion Cloud (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) indicator can be set up by adding it to your TradingView chart and configuring parameters such as the decay factor, autocorrelation length, and volatility threshold to suit current market conditions. Look for price crossovers and deviations from the calculated mean for potential entry signals. Use the upper and lower bands as dynamic support/resistance levels for setting take profit and stop-loss orders. Combining this indicator with additional trend-following or momentum-based indicators can improve signal accuracy. Adjust settings for better mean-reversion detection and risk management.
🔸Step-by-Step Guidelines
🞘 Setting Up the Indicator
Adding the Indicator to the Chart:
Go to your TradingView chart.
Click on the "Indicators" button at the top.
Search for "Mean Reversion Cloud (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck)" in the indicators list.
Click on the indicator to add it to your chart.
Configuring the Indicator:
Open the indicator settings by clicking on the gear icon next to its name on the chart.
Decay Factor: Adjust the decay factor (λ) to control the responsiveness of the mean calculation. A higher value prioritizes recent data.
Autocorrelation Length: Set the autocorrelation length (θ) for calculating the speed of mean reversion. Longer lengths consider more historical data.
Threshold: Define the number of standard deviations for the upper and lower bands to determine how far price must deviate to trigger a signal.
Chart Setup:
Select the appropriate timeframe (e.g., 1-hour, daily) based on your trading strategy.
Consider using other indicators such as RSI or MACD to confirm buy and sell signals.
🞘 Understanding What to Look For on the Chart
Indicator Behavior:
Observe how the price interacts with the dynamic mean and volatility bands. The price staying within the bands suggests mean-reverting behavior, while crossing the bands signals potential entry points.
The indicator calculates overbought/oversold conditions based on deviation from the mean, highlighted by color-coded cloud areas on the chart.
Crossovers and Deviation:
Look for crossovers between the price and the mean (μ) or the bands. A bullish crossover occurs when the price crosses below the lower band, signaling a potential buying opportunity.
A bearish crossover occurs when the price crosses above the upper band, suggesting a potential sell signal.
Deviations from the mean indicate market extremes. A large deviation indicates that the price is far from the mean, suggesting a potential reversal.
Slope and Direction:
Pay attention to the slope of the mean (μ). A rising slope suggests bullish market conditions, while a declining slope signals a bearish market.
The steepness of the slope can indicate the strength of the mean-reversion trend.
🞘 Possible Entry Signals
Bullish Entry:
Crossover Entry: Enter a long position when the price crosses below the lower band with a positive deviation from the mean.
Confirmation Entry: Use additional indicators like RSI (above 50) or increasing volume to confirm the bullish signal.
Bearish Entry:
Crossover Entry: Enter a short position when the price crosses above the upper band with a negative deviation from the mean.
Confirmation Entry: Look for RSI (below 50) or decreasing volume to confirm the bearish signal.
Deviation Confirmation:
Enter trades when the deviation from the mean is significant, indicating that the price has strayed far from its expected value and is likely to revert.
🞘 Possible Take Profit Strategies
Static Take Profit Levels:
Set predefined take profit levels based on historical volatility, using the upper and lower bands as guides.
Place take profit orders near recent support/resistance levels, ensuring you're capitalizing on the mean-reversion behavior.
Trailing Stop Loss:
Use a trailing stop based on a percentage of the price deviation from the mean to lock in profits as the trend progresses.
Adjust the trailing stop dynamically along the calculated bands to protect profits as the price returns to the mean.
Deviation-Based Exits:
Exit when the deviation from the mean starts to decrease, signaling that the price is returning to its equilibrium.
🞘 Possible Stop-Loss Levels
Initial Stop Loss:
Place an initial stop loss outside the lower band (for long positions) or above the upper band (for short positions) to protect against excessive deviations.
Use a volatility-based buffer to avoid getting stopped out during normal price fluctuations.
Dynamic Stop Loss:
Move the stop loss closer to the mean as the price converges back towards equilibrium, reducing risk.
Adjust the stop loss dynamically along the bands to account for sudden market movements.
🞘 Additional Tips
Combine with Other Indicators:
Enhance your strategy by combining the Mean Reversion Cloud with momentum indicators like MACD, RSI, or Bollinger Bands to confirm market conditions.
Backtesting and Practice:
Backtest the indicator on historical data to understand how it performs in various market environments.
Practice using the indicator on a demo account before implementing it in live trading.
Market Awareness:
Keep an eye on market news and events that might cause extreme price movements. The indicator reacts to price data and might not account for news-driven events that can cause large deviations.
🔸Customize settings 🞘 Decay Factor (λ): Defines the weight assigned to recent price data in the calculation of the mean. A value closer to 1 places more emphasis on recent prices, while lower values create a smoother, more lagging mean.
🞘 Autocorrelation Length (θ): Sets the period for calculating the speed of mean reversion and volatility. Longer lengths capture more historical data, providing smoother calculations, while shorter lengths make the indicator more responsive.
🞘 Threshold (σ): Specifies the number of standard deviations used to create the upper and lower bands. Higher thresholds widen the bands, producing fewer signals, while lower thresholds tighten the bands for more frequent signals.
🞘 Max Gradient Length (γ): Determines the maximum number of consecutive bars for calculating the deviation gradient. This setting impacts the transparency of the plotted bands based on the length of deviation from the mean.
🔶 CONCLUSION
The Mean Reversion Cloud (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) indicator offers a sophisticated approach to identifying mean-reversion opportunities by applying the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process. This dynamic indicator calculates a responsive mean using an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) and plots volatility-based bands to highlight overbought and oversold conditions. By incorporating advanced statistical measures like autocorrelation and standard deviation, traders can better assess market extremes and potential reversals. The indicator’s ability to adapt to price behavior makes it a versatile tool for traders focused on both short-term price deviations and longer-term mean-reversion strategies. With its unique blend of statistical rigor and visual clarity, the Mean Reversion Cloud provides an invaluable tool for understanding and capitalizing on market inefficiencies.
2Mars - MA / BB / SuperTrend
The 2Mars strategy is a trading approach that aims to improve trading efficiency by incorporating several simple order opening tactics. These tactics include moving average crossovers, Bollinger Bands, and SuperTrend.
Entering a Position with the 2Mars Strategy:
Moving Average Crossover: This method considers the crossing of moving averages as a signal to enter a position.
Price Crossing Bollinger Bands: If the price crosses either the upper or lower Bollinger Band, it is seen as a signal to enter a position.
Price Crossing Moving Average: If the price crosses the moving average, it is also considered a signal to enter a position.
SuperTrend and Bars confirm:
The SuperTrend indicator is used to provide additional confirmation for entering positions and setting stop loss levels. "Bars confirm" is used only for entry to positions.
Moving Average Crossover Strategy:
A moving average crossover refers to the point on a chart where there is a crossover of the signal or fast moving average, above or below the basis or slow moving average. This strategy also uses moving averages for additional orders #3.
Basis Moving Average Length: Ratio * Multiplier
Signal Moving Average Length: Multiplier
Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands consist of three bands: an upper band, a lower band, and a basis moving average. However, the 2Mars strategy incorporates multiple upper and lower levels for position entry and take profit.
Basis +/- StdDev * 0.618
Basis +/- StdDev * 1.618
Basis +/- StdDev * 2.618
Additional Orders:
Additional Order #1 and #2: closing price crosses above or below the Bollinger Bands.
Additional Order #3: closing price crosses above or below the basis or signal moving average.
Take Profit:
The strategy includes three levels for taking profits, which are based on the Bollinger Bands. Additionally, a percentage of the position can be chosen to close long or short positions.
Limit Orders:
The strategy allows for entering a position using a limit order. The calculation for the limit order involves the Average True Range (ATR) for a specific period.
For long positions: Low price - ATR * Multiplier
For short positions: High price + ATR * Multiplier
Stop Loss:
To manage risk, the strategy recommends using stop loss options. The stop loss is updated with each entry order and take-profit level 3. When using the SuperTrend Confirmation, the stop loss requires confirmation of a trend change. It allows for flexible adjustment of the stop loss when the trend changes.
There are three options for setting the stop loss:
1. ATR (Average True Range):
For long positions: Low price - ATR * Long multiplier
For short positions: High price + ATR * Short multiplier
2. SuperTrend + ATR:
For long positions: SuperTrend - ATR * Long multiplier
For short positions: SuperTrend + ATR * Short multiplier
3. StdDev:
For long positions: StdDev - ATR * Long multiplier
For short positions: StdDev + ATR * Short multiplier
Flexible Stop Loss:
There is also a flexible stop loss option for the ATR and StdDev methods. It is triggered when the SuperTrend or moving average trend changes unfavorably.
For long positions: Stop-loss price + (ATR * Long multiplier) * Multiplier
For short positions: Stop-loss price - (ATR * Short multiplier) * Multiplier
How configure:
Disable SuperTrend, take profit, stop loss, additional orders and begin setting up a strategy.
Pick soucre data
Number of bars for confirm
Pick up the ratio of the base moving average and the signal moving average.
Set up a SuperTrend
Time for set up of the Bollinger Bands and the take profit
And finaly set up of stop loss and limit orders
All done!
For OKX exchange:
Risk Management and Positionsize - MACD exampleMastering Risk Management
Risk management is the cornerstone of successful trading, and it's often the difference between turning a profit and suffering a loss. In light of its importance, I share a risk management tool which you can use for your trading strategies. The script not only assists in position sizing but also comes with built-in technical features that help in market timing. Let's delve into the nitty-gritty details.
Input Parameter: MarginFactor
One of the key features of the script is the MarginFactor input parameter. This element lets you control the portion of your equity used for placing each trade. A MarginFactor of -0.5 means 50% of your total equity will be deployed in placing the position size. Although Tradingview has a built-in option to adjust position sizing in a same way, I personally prefer to have the logic in my pinecode script. The main reason is userexperience in managing and testing different settings for different charts, timeframes and instruments (with the same strategy).
Stoploss and MarginFactor
If your strategy has a 4% stop-loss, you can choose to use only 50% of your equity by setting the MarginFactor to -0.5. In this case, you are effectively risking only 2% of your total capital per trade, which aligns well with the widely-accepted rule of thumb suggesting a 1-2% risk per trade. Similar if your stoploss is only 1% you can choose to change the MarginFactor to 1, resulting in a positionsize of 200% of your equity. The total risk would be again 2% per trade if your stoploss is set to 1%.
Max Drawdown and MarginFactor
Your MarginFactor setting can also be aligned with the maximum drawdown of your strategy, seen during a backtested period of 2-3 years. For example, if the max drawdown is 15%, you could calibrate your MarginFactor accordingly to limit your risk exposure.
Option to Toggle Number of Contracts
The script offers the option to toggle between using a percentage of equity for position sizing or specifying a fixed number of contracts. Utilizing a percentage of equity might yield unrealistic backtest results, especially over longer periods. This occurs because as the capital grows, the absolute position size also increases, potentially inflating the accumulated returns generated by the backtester. On the other hand, setting a fixed number of contracts as your position size offers a more stable and realistic ROI over the backtested period, as it removes the compounding effect on position sizes.
Key Features Strategy
MACD High Time Frame Entry and Exit Logic
The strategy employs a high time frame MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to make entry and exit decisions. You can easily adjust the timeframe settings and MACD settings in the inputsection to trade on lower timeframes. For more information on the HTF MACD with dynamic smoothing see:
Moving Average High Time Frame Filter
To reduce market 'noise', the strategy incorporates a high time frame moving average filter. This ensures that the trades are aligned with the dominant market trend (trading the trend). In the inputsection traders can easily switch between different type of moving averages. For more information about this HTF filter see:
Dynamic Smoothing
The script includes a feature for dynamic smoothing. The script contains The timeframeToMinutes(tf) function to convert any given time frame into its equivalent in minutes. For example, a daily (D) time frame is converted into 1440 minutes, a weekly (W) into 10,080 minutes, and so forth. Next the smoothing factor is calculated by dividing the minutes of the higher time frame by those of the current time frame. Finally, the script applies a Simple Moving Average (SMA) over the MACD, SIGNAL, and HIST values, MA filter using the dynamically calculated smoothing factor.
User Convenience: One of the major benefits is that traders don't need to manually adjust the smoothing factor when switching between different time frames. The script does this dynamically.
Visual Consistency: Dynamic smoothing helps traders to more accurately visualize and interpret HTF indicators when trading on lower time frames.
Time Frame Restriction: It's crucial to note that the operational time frame should always be lower than the time frame selected in the input sections for dynamic smoothing to function as intended.
By incorporating this dynamic smoothing logic, the script offers traders a nuanced yet straightforward way to adapt High Time Frame indicators for lower time frame trading, enhancing both adaptability and user experience.
Limitations: Exit Strategy
It's crucial to note that the script comes with a simplified exit strategy, devoid of features like a stop-loss, trailing stop-loss or multiple take profits. This means that while the script focuses on entries and risk management, it might result in higher losses if market conditions unexpectedly turn unfavorable.
Conclusion
Effective risk management is pivotal for trading success, and this TradingView script is designed to give you a better idea how to implement positions sizing with your preferred strategy. However, it's essential to note that this tool should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making any trading decisions.
Feel free to use this risk management tool as building block in your trading scripts, Happy Trading!
Elliott Wave with Supertrend Exit - Strategy [presentTrading]## Introduction and How it is Different
The Elliott Wave with Supertrend Exit provides automated detection and validation of Elliott Wave patterns for algorithmic trading. It is designed to objectively identify high-probability wave formations and signal entries based on confirmed impulsive and corrective patterns.
* The Elliott part is mostly referenced from Elliott Wave by @LuxAlgo
Key advantages compared to discretionary Elliott Wave analysis:
- Wave Labeling and Counting: The strategy programmatically identifies swing pivot highs/lows with the Zigzag indicator and analyzes the waves between them. It labels the potential impulsive and corrective patterns as they form. This removes the subjectivity of manual wave counting.
- Pattern Validation: A rules-based engine confirms valid impulsive and corrective patterns by checking relative size relationships and fib ratios. Only confirmed wave counts are plotted and traded.
- Objective Entry Signals: Trades are entered systematically on the start of new impulsive waves in the direction of the trend. Pattern failures invalidate setups and stop out positions.
- Automated Trade Management: The strategy defines specific rules for profit targets at fib extensions, trailing stops at swing points, and exits on Supertrend reversals. This automates the entire trade lifecycle.
- Adaptability: The waveform recognition engine can be tuned by adjusting parameters like Zigzag depth and Supertrend settings. It adapts to evolving market conditions.
ETH 1hr chart
In summary, the strategy brings automation, objectivity and adaptability to Elliott Wave trading - removing subjective interpretation errors and emotional trading biases. It implements a rules-based, algorithmic approach for systematically trading Elliott Wave patterns across markets and timeframes.
## Trading Logic and Rules
The strategy follows specific trading rules based on the detected and validated Elliott Wave patterns.
Entry Rules
- Long entry when a new impulsive bullish (5-wave) pattern forms
- Short entry when a new impulsive bearish (5-wave) pattern forms
The key is entering on the start of a new potential trend wave rather than chasing.
Exit Rules
- Invalidation of wave pattern stops out the trade
- Close long trades on Supertrend downturn
- Close short trades on Supertrend upturn
- Use a stop loss of 10% of entry price (configurable)
Trade Management
- Scale out partial profits at Fibonacci levels
- Move stop to breakeven when price reaches 1.618 extension
- Trail stops below key swing points
- Target exits at next Fibonacci projection level
Risk Management
- Use stop losses on all trades
- Trade only highest probability setups
- Size positions according to chart timeframe
- Avoid overtrading when no clear patterns emerge
## Strategy - How it Works
The core logic follows these steps:
1. Find swing highs/lows with Zigzag indicator
2. Analyze pivot points to detect impulsive 5-wave patterns:
- Waves 1, 3, and 5 should not overlap
- Waves 3 and 5 must be longer than wave 1
- Confirm relative size relationships between waves
3. Validate corrective 3-wave patterns:
- Look for overlapping, choppy waves that retrace the prior impulsive wave
4. Plot validated waves and Fibonacci retracement levels
5. Signal entries when a new impulsive wave pattern forms
6. Manage exits based on pattern failures and Supertrend reversals
Impulsive Wave Validation
The strategy checks relative size relationships to confirm valid impulsive waves.
For uptrends, it ensures:
```
Copy code- Wave 3 is longer than wave 1
- Wave 5 is longer than wave 2
- Waves do not overlap
```
Corrective Wave Validation
The strategy identifies overlapping corrective patterns that retrace the prior impulsive wave within Fibonacci levels.
Pattern Failure Invalidation
If waves fail validation tests, the strategy invalidates the pattern and stops signaling trades.
## Trade Direction
The strategy detects impulsive and corrective patterns in both uptrends and downtrends. Entries are signaled in the direction of the validated wave pattern.
## Usage
- Use on charts showing clear Elliott Wave patterns
- Start with daily or weekly timeframes to gauge overall trend
- Optimize Zigzag and Supertrend settings as needed
- Consider combining with other indicators for confirmation
## Default Settings
- Zigzag Length: 4 bars
- Supertrend Length: 10 bars
- Supertrend Multiplier: 3
- Stop Loss: 10% of entry price
- Trading Direction: Both
SuperTrend Entry(My goal creating this indicator) : Provide a way to enter the market systematically, automatically create Stop Loss Levels and Take Profit Levels, and provide the position size of each entry based on a fix Percentage of the traders account.
The Underlying Concept :
What is Momentum?
The Momentum shown is derived from a Mathematical Formula, SUPERTREND. When price closes above Supertrend Its bullish Momentum when its below Supertrend its Bearish Momentum. This indicator scans for candle closes on the current chart and when there is a shift in momentum (price closes below or above SUPERTREND) it notifies the trader with a Bar Color change.
Technical Inputs
- If you want to optimize the rate of signals to better fit your trading plan you would change the Factor input and ATR Length input. Increase factor and ATR Length to decrease the frequency of signals and decrease the Factor and ATR Length to increase the frequency of signals.
Quick TIP! : You can Sync all VFX SuperTrend Indicators together! All VFX SuperTrend indicators display unique information but its all derived from that same Momentum Formula. Keep the Factor input and ATR Length the same on other VFX SuperTrend indicators to have them operating on the same data.
Display Inputs
- The indicator has a candle overlay option you can toggle ON or OFF. If toggled ON the candles color will represent the momentum of your current chart ( bullish or bearish Momentum)
your able to change the colors that represent bullish or bearish to your preference
- You can toggle on which shows the exact candle momentum switched sides
your able to change the colors that represent a bullish switch or bearish switch to your preference
- The trader can specify which point you would like your stop loss to reference. (Low and High) Which uses the Low of the Momentum signal as the reference for your Stop Loss during buy signals and the High as the reference during sell signals. Or (Lowest Close and Highest Close) which uses the Lowest Close of the Momentum signal as the reference for your Stop Loss during buys and the Highest Close as the reference during sells.
- The colors that represent your Stop Loses and Take Profits can also be changed
Risk Management Inputs
- Your Risk MANAGMENT section is used to set up how your Stop Loss and Take Profit are calculated
- You have the option to take in account Volatility when calculating your Stop Loss. A adjusted ATR formula is used to achieve this. Increase Stop Loss Multiplier from 0 to widen stops.
- Increase Take Profit Multiplier from 0 to access visual Take Profit Levels based on your Stop Loss. This will be important for traders that Prefer trading using risk rewards. For Example: If the the Take Profit Multiplier is 3 a Take Profit level 3 times the size or your stop loss from your entry will be shown and a price number corresponding to that Take Profit Level becomes available.
- Enter your current Account size, Bet Percentage and Fixed Spread to get your Position Size for each trade
-Toggle on the Current Trade Chart and easily get the size of your Position and the exact price of your Take Profit and Stop Loss.
You can increase the Size of the Current Trade Chart= Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, Huge and change the Position of the Current
trade Chart to your preference, (Top- Right, Center, Left) (Middle- Right, Center, Left) (Bottom- Right, Center, Left).
How it can be used ?
- Enter Trades and always know where your stop is going to be
- Eliminate the need to manual calculate Position Size
- Get a consistent view of the current charts momentum
- Systematical enter trades
- Reduce information overload
CDC ActionZone BF for ETHUSD-1D © PRoSkYNeT-EE
Based on improvements from "Kitti-Playbook Action Zone V.4.2.0.3 for Stock Market"
Based on improvements from "CDC Action Zone V3 2020 by piriya33"
Based on Triple MACD crossover between 9/15, 21/28, 15/28 for filter error signal (noise) from CDC ActionZone V3
MACDs generated from the execution of millions of times in the "Brute Force Algorithm" to backtest data from the past 5 years. ( 2017-08-21 to 2022-08-01 )
Released 2022-08-01
***** The indicator is used in the ETHUSD 1 Day period ONLY *****
Recommended Stop Loss : -4 % (execute stop Loss after candlestick has been closed)
Backtest Result ( Start $100 )
Winrate 63 % (Win:12, Loss:7, Total:19)
Live Days 1,806 days
B : Buy
S : Sell
SL : Stop Loss
2022-07-19 07 - 1,542 : B 6.971 ETH
2022-04-13 07 - 3,118 : S 8.98 % $10,750 12,7,19 63 %
2022-03-20 07 - 2,861 : B 3.448 ETH
2021-12-03 07 - 4,216 : SL -8.94 % $9,864 11,7,18 61 %
2021-11-30 07 - 4,630 : B 2.340 ETH
2021-11-18 07 - 3,997 : S 13.71 % $10,832 11,6,17 65 %
2021-10-05 07 - 3,515 : B 2.710 ETH
2021-09-20 07 - 2,977 : S 29.38 % $9,526 10,6,16 63 %
2021-07-28 07 - 2,301 : B 3.200 ETH
2021-05-20 07 - 2,769 : S 50.49 % $7,363 9,6,15 60 %
2021-03-30 07 - 1,840 : B 2.659 ETH
2021-03-22 07 - 1,681 : SL -8.29 % $4,893 8,6,14 57 %
2021-03-08 07 - 1,833 : B 2.911 ETH
2021-02-26 07 - 1,445 : S 279.27 % $5,335 8,5,13 62 %
2020-10-13 07 - 381 : B 3.692 ETH
2020-09-05 07 - 335 : S 38.43 % $1,407 7,5,12 58 %
2020-07-06 07 - 242 : B 4.199 ETH
2020-06-27 07 - 221 : S 28.49 % $1,016 6,5,11 55 %
2020-04-16 07 - 172 : B 4.598 ETH
2020-02-29 07 - 217 : S 47.62 % $791 5,5,10 50 %
2020-01-12 07 - 147 : B 3.644 ETH
2019-11-18 07 - 178 : S -2.73 % $536 4,5,9 44 %
2019-11-01 07 - 183 : B 3.010 ETH
2019-09-23 07 - 201 : SL -4.29 % $551 4,4,8 50 %
2019-09-18 07 - 210 : B 2.740 ETH
2019-07-12 07 - 275 : S 63.69 % $575 4,3,7 57 %
2019-05-03 07 - 168 : B 2.093 ETH
2019-04-28 07 - 158 : S 29.51 % $352 3,3,6 50 %
2019-02-15 07 - 122 : B 2.225 ETH
2019-01-10 07 - 125 : SL -6.02 % $271 2,3,5 40 %
2018-12-29 07 - 133 : B 2.172 ETH
2018-05-22 07 - 641 : S 5.95 % $289 2,2,4 50 %
2018-04-21 07 - 605 : B 0.451 ETH
2018-02-02 07 - 922 : S 197.42 % $273 1,2,3 33 %
2017-11-11 07 - 310 : B 0.296 ETH
2017-10-09 07 - 297 : SL -4.50 % $92 0,2,2 0 %
2017-10-07 07 - 311 : B 0.309 ETH
2017-08-22 07 - 310 : SL -4.02 % $96 0,1,1 0 %
2017-08-21 07 - 323 : B 0.310 ETH
EMA bands + leledc + bollinger bands trend following strategy v2The basics:
In its simplest form, this strategy is a positional trend following strategy which enters long when price breaks out above "middle" EMA bands and closes or flips short when price breaks down below "middle" EMA bands. The top and bottom of the middle EMA bands are calculated from the EMA of candle highs and lows, respectively.
The idea is that entering trades on breakouts of the high EMAs and low EMAs rather than the typical EMA based on candle closes gives a bit more confirmation of trend strength and minimizes getting chopped up. To further reduce getting chopped up, the strategy defaults to close on crossing the opposite EMA band (ie. long on break above high EMA middle band and close below low EMA middle band).
This strategy works on all markets on all timeframes, but as a trend following strategy it works best on markets prone to trending such as crypto and tech stocks. On lower timeframes, longer EMAs tend to work best (I've found good results on EMA lengths even has high up to 1000), while 4H charts and above tend to work better with EMA lengths 21 and below.
As an added filter to confirm the trend, a second EMA can be used. Inputting a slower EMA filter can ensure trades are entered in accordance with longer term trends, inputting a faster EMA filter can act as confirmation of breakout strength.
Bar coloring can be enabled to quickly visually identify a trend's direction for confluence with other indicators or strategies.
The goods:
Waiting for the trend to flip before closing a trade (especially when a longer base EMA is used) often leaves money on the table. This script combines a number of ways to identify when a trend is exhausted for backtesting the best early exits.
"Delayed bars inside middle bands" - When a number of candle's in a row open and close between the middle EMA bands, it could be a sign the trend is weak, or that the breakout was not the start of a new trend. Selecting this will close out positions after a number of bars has passed
"Leledc bars" - Originally introduced by glaz, this is a price action indicator that highlights a candle after a number of bars in a row close the same direction and result in greatest high/low over a period. It often triggers when a strong trend has paused before further continuation, or it marks the end of a trend. To mitigate closing on false Leledc signals, this strategy has two options: 1. Introducing requirement for increased volume on the Leledc bars can help filter out Leledc signals that happen mid trend. 2. Closing after a number of Leledc bars appear after position opens. These two options work great in isolation but don't perform well together in my testing.
"Bollinger Bands exhaustion bars" - These bars are highlighted when price closes back inside the Bollinger Bands and RSI is within specified overbought/sold zones. The idea is that a trend is overextended when price trades beyond the Bollinger Bands. When price closes back inside the bands it's likely due for mean reversion back to the base EMA in which this strategy will ideally re-enter a position. Since the added RSI requirements often make this indicator too strict to trigger a large enough sample size to backtest, I've found it best to use "non-standard" settings for both the bands and the RSI as seen in the default settings.
"Buy/Sell zones" - Similar to the idea behind using Bollinger Bands exhaustion bars as a closing signal. Instead of calculating off of standard deviations, the Buy/Sell zones are calculated off multiples of the middle EMA bands. When trading beyond these zones and subsequently failing back inside, price may be due for mean reversion back to the base EMA. No RSI filter is used for Buy/Sell zones.
If any early close conditions are selected, it's often worth enabling trade re-entry on "middle EMA band bounce". Instead of waiting for a candle to close back inside the middle EMA bands, this feature will re-enter position on only a wick back into the middle bands as will sometimes happen when the trend is strong.
Any and all of the early close conditions can be combined. Experimenting with these, I've found can result in less net profit but higher win-rates and sharpe ratios as less time is spent in trades.
The deadly:
The trend is your friend. But wouldn't it be nice to catch the trends early? In ranging markets (or when using slower base EMAs in this strategy), waiting for confirmation of a breakout of the EMA bands at best will cause you to miss half the move, at worst will result in getting consistently chopped up. Enabling "counter-trend" trades on this strategy will allow the strategy to enter positions on the opposite side of the EMA bands on either a Leledc bar or Bollinger Bands exhaustion bar. There is a filter requiring either a high/low (for Leledc) or open (for BB bars) outside the selected inner or outer Buy/Sell zone. There are also a number of different close conditions for the counter-trend trades to experiment with and backtest.
There are two ways I've found best to use counter-trend trades
1. Mean reverting scalp trades when a trend is clearly overextended. Selecting from the first 5 counter-trend closing conditions on the dropdown list will usually close the trades out quickly, with less profit but less risk.
2. Trying to catch trends early. Selecting any of the close conditions below the first 5 can cause the strategy to behave as if it's entering into a new trend (from the wrong side).
This feature can be deadly effective in profiting from every move price makes, or deadly to the strategy's PnL if not set correctly. Since counter-trend trades open opposite the middle bands, a stop-loss is recommended to reduce risk. If stop-losses for counter-trend trades are disabled, the strategy will hold a position open often until liquidation in a trending market if th trade is offsides. Note that using a slower base EMA makes counter-trend stop-losses even more necessary as it can reduce the effectiveness of the Buy/Sell zone filter for opening the trades as price can spend a long time trending outside the zones. If faster EMAs (34 and below) are used with "Inner" Buy/Zone filter selected, the first few closing conditions will often trigger almost immediately closing the trade at a loss.
The niche:
I've added a feature to default into longs or shorts. Enabling these with other features (aside from the basic long/short on EMA middle band breakout) tends to break the strategy one way or another. Enabling default long works to simulate trying to acquire more of the asset rather than the base currency. Enabling default short can have positive results for those high FDV, high inflation coins that go down-only for months at a time. Otherwise, I use default short as a hedge for coins that I hold and stake spot. I gain the utility and APR of staking while reducing the risk of holding the underlying asset by maintaining a net neutral position *most* of the time.
Disclaimer:
This script is intended for experimenting and backtesting different strategies around EMA bands. Use this script for your live trading at your own risk. I am a rookie coder, as such there may be errors in the code that cause the strategy to behave not as intended. As far as I can tell it doesn't repaint, but I cannot guarantee that it does not. That being said if there's any question, improvements, or errors you've found, drop a comment below!
GRID SPOT TRADING ALGORITHM - GRID BOT TRADING STRATEGYGRID SPOT TRADING ALGORITHM : LONG ONLY STRATEGY OPEN SOURCE
This is a long only strategy for spot assets.
HOW IT WORKS
Grid trading is a trading strategy where an investor creates a so-called "price grid". The basic idea of the strategy is to repeatedly buy at the pre-specified price and then wait for the price to rise above that level and then sell the position (and vice versa with shorting or hedging).
FEATURES
Grids: This algorithm has a total of 10 grids.
Take profit: The trader can increase or decrease the distance between the grids from the User Interface panel, the distance between one grid and another represents the take profit.
Management: The algorithm buys 10% of the capital every time the price breaks down a grid and sells during a rise to the next higher grid. The initial capital is invested in 10 sizes which represent 10% of the capital per trade.
Stop Loss: The algorithm knows no stop loss as long as it is not activated from the User Interface panel. By activating the stop loss from the User Interface panel the algorithm will insert a close condition on all trades which will be calculated from the last lower grid.
Trades: Trades are opened only if the price is within the grid. If the market leaves the grid the algorithm will not buy new positions or sell new positions.
Optimal market conditions: The favorable market for this algorithm is the sideways market.
LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL
The trader must take into account that this is a static model. It only works perfectly well if the market is in a sideways phase and incurs heavy losses if the market takes a downward trend. The model is unusable for an uptrend. The trader must therefore carefully analyze the market where he intends to use this strategy, making sure that the price is in a sideways phase.
USES
Indispensable research and backtesting tool for those using bots for their investments. The algorithm produces a backtesting of the strategy for past history. It is used by professional traders to understand if this strategy has been profitable on a market and what parameters to use for bots using this strategy (Kucoin, Binance etc.).
If you would like to develop your own algorithm with customized conditions based on a grid strategy, please contact us.
If you need help in using this tool, please contact us without hesitation.
Breakout Trend Trading Strategy - V1Strategy in nutshell:
This strategy is made to be used in daily time-frames. Works better on trending instruments where volume is available. Hence, this is more suitable for trending shares rather than currencies, commodities and indexes where volume data is either not present or not reliable.
Breakout signifies the continuation of trend. Hence, trade in the direction of breakouts. Breakouts are calculated based on high volume and price movement in a day. This will be combined with few other conditions to generate buy and sell signals along with stop and compound targets. Supertrend is used for trend bias. Our buy and sell targets do not directly depend on the bias. But, entry criteria in opposite trend is made much difficult than that of trend direction. Further explanation of method and input parameters are explained below.
Backtesting parameters :
Capital and position sizing : Capital and position sizing parameters are set to test investing 2000 wholly on certain stock without compounding.
Initial Capital : 2000
Order Size : 100% of equity
Pyramiding : 1
ExitOnSignal : If unchecked exit is triggered solely on trailing stop
Trade Direction : Long, Short or All. Short condition is riskier than long conditions and often results in losses as per my observation. On most of the stocks trending up, strategy will not generate any short signals. This is achieved by comparing yearly high lows to previous two years to decide whether to allow short or long entries.
allowImmediateCompound : Applicable only if compounding/pyramiding is enabled in trade. If checked allows to place compounding orders immediately. If unchecked, it waits for stopline to cross order price before placing next compound.
Display Mode :
Targets : Whenever breakout happens, show marker for upTarget and downTarget
TargetChannel : Show up target and downtarget as a channel
Target With Stop : Along with targets, show also stop levels for breakouts
Up Channel : Channel created from UpTarget and respective stops
Down Channel : Channel created from DownTarget and respective stops
ShowTrailingStop : Shows trailing stop and compound lines when there is a trading position.
ShowTargetLevels : Shows Buy Sell target levels along with stop and compound lines. Trades are done as market orders. Hence, target levels are displayed after strategy makes the trade. Since only one order allowed per side without compounding, target, stop and compound levels are shown sometimes even without trade being made. These can be considered as entry levels if there is no existing position.
ShowPreviousLevels : Shows previous buy/sell target levels. When enabled, layout can look messy.
StopMultiplyer: To Set trailing stop loss.
BacktestYears: Number of years to include in backtest
So far my test cases are:
Positive : AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, RUN, VRT, ASX:APT
Negative Test Cases: WPL, WHC, NHC, WOW, COL, NAB (All ASX stocks)
Special test case: WDI
Negative test cases still show losses in backtesting. I have attempted including many conditions to eliminate or reduce the loss. But, further efforts has resulted in reduction in profits in positive cases as well. Still experimenting. Will update whenever I find improvements. Comments and suggestions welcome :)
Two Take Profit StrategyThis script is for research purposes only. I am not a financial advisor.
Entry Condition
This strategy is based on two take profit targets and scaling out strategy. The entry rule is very simple. Whenever the EMA crossover WMA, the long trade is taken and vice versa.
Take Profit and Stop Loss
The first take profit is set at 20 pips above the long entry and the second take profit is set at 40 pips above the long entry. Meanwhile, the stop loss is set at 20 pips below the long entry.
Money Management
When the first take profit is achieved, half of the position is closed. The rest of the position is open to achieve either second take profit or stop loss.
There are three outcomes when using this strategy. Let's say you enter the trade with 200 lot size and you are risking 2% of your equity.
1. The first outcome is when the price hits stop loss, you lose the entire 2%.
2. The second outcome is when the price hits the first take profit and you close half of your position. Meaning that you have gained 1%. Then you let the trade running and eventually it hits stop loss. The total loss is 0% because the remaining lot size which is 200/2=100 times by 20pips is 1%. You have gained the earlier 1% and then loss 1%. At this point, you are at break even.
3. The third outcome is similar to the second out but instead of hiring stop loss, the trade is running to your favor and hits the second take profit.
Therefore, you gained 1% from the first take profit and you gained another 2% for the second take profit. Your total gained is 3%
Summary
The reason behind this strategy is to minimize risk. with normal strategy, you only have two outcomes which are either win or loss. With this strategy, you have three outcomes which are win, loss or break even.
Drawdown Distribution Analysis (DDA) ACADEMIC FOUNDATION AND RESEARCH BACKGROUND
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator implements quantitative risk management principles, drawing upon decades of academic research in portfolio theory, behavioral finance, and statistical risk modeling. This tool provides risk assessment capabilities for traders and portfolio managers seeking to understand their current position within historical drawdown patterns.
The theoretical foundation of this indicator rests on modern portfolio theory as established by Markowitz (1952), who introduced the fundamental concepts of risk-return optimization that continue to underpin contemporary portfolio management. Sharpe (1966) later expanded this framework by developing risk-adjusted performance measures, most notably the Sharpe ratio, which remains a cornerstone of performance evaluation in financial markets.
The specific focus on drawdown analysis builds upon the work of Chekhlov, Uryasev and Zabarankin (2005), who provided the mathematical framework for incorporating drawdown measures into portfolio optimization. Their research demonstrated that traditional mean-variance optimization often fails to capture the full risk profile of investment strategies, particularly regarding sequential losses. More recent work by Goldberg and Mahmoud (2017) has brought these theoretical concepts into practical application within institutional risk management frameworks.
Value at Risk methodology, as comprehensively outlined by Jorion (2007), provides the statistical foundation for the risk measurement components of this indicator. The coherent risk measures framework developed by Artzner et al. (1999) ensures that the risk metrics employed satisfy the mathematical properties required for sound risk management decisions. Additionally, the focus on downside risk follows the framework established by Sortino and Price (1994), while the drawdown-adjusted performance measures implement concepts introduced by Young (1991).
MATHEMATICAL METHODOLOGY
The core calculation methodology centers on a peak-tracking algorithm that continuously monitors the maximum price level achieved and calculates the percentage decline from this peak. The drawdown at any time t is defined as DD(t) = (P(t) - Peak(t)) / Peak(t) × 100, where P(t) represents the asset price at time t and Peak(t) represents the running maximum price observed up to time t.
Statistical distribution analysis forms the analytical backbone of the indicator. The system calculates key percentiles using the ta.percentile_nearest_rank() function to establish the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of the historical drawdown distribution. This approach provides a complete picture of how the current drawdown compares to historical patterns.
Statistical significance assessment employs standard deviation bands at one, two, and three standard deviations from the mean, following the conventional approach where the upper band equals μ + nσ and the lower band equals μ - nσ. The Z-score calculation, defined as Z = (DD - μ) / σ, enables the identification of statistically extreme events, with thresholds set at |Z| > 2.5 for extreme drawdowns and |Z| > 3.0 for severe drawdowns, corresponding to confidence levels exceeding 99.4% and 99.7% respectively.
ADVANCED RISK METRICS
The indicator incorporates several risk-adjusted performance measures that extend beyond basic drawdown analysis. The Sharpe ratio calculation follows the standard formula Sharpe = (R - Rf) / σ, where R represents the annualized return, Rf represents the risk-free rate, and σ represents the annualized volatility. The system supports dynamic sourcing of the risk-free rate from the US 10-year Treasury yield or allows for manual specification.
The Sortino ratio addresses the limitation of the Sharpe ratio by focusing exclusively on downside risk, calculated as Sortino = (R - Rf) / σd, where σd represents the downside deviation computed using only negative returns. This measure provides a more accurate assessment of risk-adjusted performance for strategies that exhibit asymmetric return distributions.
The Calmar ratio, defined as Annual Return divided by the absolute value of Maximum Drawdown, offers a direct measure of return per unit of drawdown risk. This metric proves particularly valuable for comparing strategies or assets with different risk profiles, as it directly relates performance to the maximum historical loss experienced.
Value at Risk calculations provide quantitative estimates of potential losses at specified confidence levels. The 95% VaR corresponds to the 5th percentile of the drawdown distribution, while the 99% VaR corresponds to the 1st percentile. Conditional VaR, also known as Expected Shortfall, estimates the average loss in the worst 5% of scenarios, providing insight into tail risk that standard VaR measures may not capture.
To enable fair comparison across assets with different volatility characteristics, the indicator calculates volatility-adjusted drawdowns using the formula Adjusted DD = Raw DD / (Volatility / 20%). This normalization allows for meaningful comparison between high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies and lower-volatility instruments like government bonds.
The Risk Efficiency Score represents a composite measure ranging from 0 to 100 that combines the Sharpe ratio and current percentile rank to provide a single metric for quick asset assessment. Higher scores indicate superior risk-adjusted performance relative to historical patterns.
COLOR SCHEMES AND VISUALIZATION
The indicator implements eight distinct color themes designed to accommodate different analytical preferences and market contexts. The EdgeTools theme employs a corporate blue palette that matches the design system used throughout the edgetools.org platform, ensuring visual consistency across analytical tools.
The Gold theme specifically targets precious metals analysis with warm tones that complement gold chart analysis, while the Quant theme provides a grayscale scheme suitable for analytical environments that prioritize clarity over aesthetic appeal. The Behavioral theme incorporates psychology-based color coding, using green to represent greed-driven market conditions and red to indicate fear-driven environments.
Additional themes include Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic schemes, each designed for specific market conditions or user preferences. All themes function effectively with both dark and light mode trading platforms, ensuring accessibility across different user interface configurations.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
Asset allocation and portfolio construction represent primary use cases for this analytical framework. When comparing multiple assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, traders can examine Risk Efficiency Scores to identify instruments offering superior risk-adjusted performance. The 95% VaR provides worst-case scenario comparisons, while volatility-adjusted drawdowns enable fair comparison despite varying volatility profiles.
The practical decision framework suggests that assets with Risk Efficiency Scores above 70 may be suitable for aggressive portfolio allocations, scores between 40 and 70 indicate moderate allocation potential, and scores below 40 suggest defensive positioning or avoidance. These thresholds should be adjusted based on individual risk tolerance and market conditions.
Risk management and position sizing applications utilize the current percentile rank to guide allocation decisions. When the current drawdown ranks above the 75th percentile of historical data, indicating that current conditions are better than 75% of historical periods, position increases may be warranted. Conversely, when percentile rankings fall below the 25th percentile, indicating elevated risk conditions, position reductions become advisable.
Institutional portfolio monitoring applications include hedge fund risk dashboard implementations where multiple strategies can be monitored simultaneously. Sharpe ratio tracking identifies deteriorating risk-adjusted performance across strategies, VaR monitoring ensures portfolios remain within established risk limits, and drawdown duration tracking provides valuable information for investor reporting requirements.
Market timing applications combine the statistical analysis with trend identification techniques. Strong buy signals may emerge when risk levels register as "Low" in conjunction with established uptrends, while extreme risk levels combined with downtrends may indicate exit or hedging opportunities. Z-scores exceeding 3.0 often signal statistically oversold conditions that may precede trend reversals.
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND VALIDATION
The indicator provides 95% confidence intervals around current drawdown levels using the standard formula CI = μ ± 1.96σ. This statistical framework enables users to assess whether current conditions fall within normal market variation or represent statistically significant departures from historical patterns.
Risk level classification employs a dynamic assessment system based on percentile ranking within the historical distribution. Low risk designation applies when current drawdowns perform better than 50% of historical data, moderate risk encompasses the 25th to 50th percentile range, high risk covers the 10th to 25th percentile range, and extreme risk applies to the worst 10% of historical drawdowns.
Sample size considerations play a crucial role in statistical reliability. For daily data, the system requires a minimum of 252 trading days (approximately one year) but performs better with 500 or more observations. Weekly data analysis benefits from at least 104 weeks (two years) of history, while monthly data requires a minimum of 60 months (five years) for reliable statistical inference.
IMPLEMENTATION BEST PRACTICES
Parameter optimization should consider the specific characteristics of different asset classes. Equity analysis typically benefits from 500-day lookback periods with 21-day smoothing, while cryptocurrency analysis may employ 365-day lookback periods with 14-day smoothing to account for higher volatility patterns. Fixed income analysis often requires longer lookback periods of 756 days with 34-day smoothing to capture the lower volatility environment.
Multi-timeframe analysis provides hierarchical risk assessment capabilities. Daily timeframe analysis supports tactical risk management decisions, weekly analysis informs strategic positioning choices, and monthly analysis guides long-term allocation decisions. This hierarchical approach ensures that risk assessment occurs at appropriate temporal scales for different investment objectives.
Integration with complementary indicators enhances the analytical framework. Trend indicators such as RSI and moving averages provide directional bias context, volume analysis helps confirm the severity of drawdown conditions, and volatility measures like VIX or ATR assist in market regime identification.
ALERT SYSTEM AND AUTOMATION
The automated alert system monitors five distinct categories of risk events. Risk level changes trigger notifications when drawdowns move between risk categories, enabling proactive risk management responses. Statistical significance alerts activate when Z-scores exceed established threshold levels of 2.5 or 3.0 standard deviations.
New maximum drawdown alerts notify users when historical maximum levels are exceeded, indicating entry into uncharted risk territory. Poor risk efficiency alerts trigger when the composite risk efficiency score falls below 30, suggesting deteriorating risk-adjusted performance. Sharpe ratio decline alerts activate when risk-adjusted performance turns negative, indicating that returns no longer compensate for the risk undertaken.
TRADING STRATEGIES
Conservative risk parity strategies can be implemented by monitoring Risk Efficiency Scores across a diversified asset portfolio. Monthly rebalancing maintains equal risk contribution from each asset, with allocation reductions triggered when risk levels reach "High" status and complete exits executed when "Extreme" risk levels emerge. This approach typically results in lower overall portfolio volatility, improved risk-adjusted returns, and reduced maximum drawdown periods.
Tactical asset rotation strategies compare Risk Efficiency Scores across different asset classes to guide allocation decisions. Assets with scores exceeding 60 receive overweight allocations, while assets scoring below 40 receive underweight positions. Percentile rankings provide timing guidance for allocation adjustments, creating a systematic approach to asset allocation that responds to changing risk-return profiles.
Market timing strategies with statistical edges can be constructed by entering positions when Z-scores fall below -2.5, indicating statistically oversold conditions, and scaling out when Z-scores exceed 2.5, suggesting overbought conditions. The 95% VaR serves as a stop-loss reference point, while trend confirmation indicators provide additional validation for position entry and exit decisions.
LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
Several statistical limitations affect the interpretation and application of these risk measures. Historical bias represents a fundamental challenge, as past drawdown patterns may not accurately predict future risk characteristics, particularly during structural market changes or regime shifts. Sample dependence means that results can be sensitive to the selected lookback period, with shorter periods providing more responsive but potentially less stable estimates.
Market regime changes can significantly alter the statistical parameters underlying the analysis. During periods of structural market evolution, historical distributions may provide poor guidance for future expectations. Additionally, many financial assets exhibit return distributions with fat tails that deviate from normal distribution assumptions, potentially leading to underestimation of extreme event probabilities.
Practical limitations include execution risk, where theoretical signals may not translate directly into actual trading results due to factors such as slippage, timing delays, and market impact. Liquidity constraints mean that risk metrics assume perfect liquidity, which may not hold during stressed market conditions when risk management becomes most critical.
Transaction costs are not incorporated into risk-adjusted return calculations, potentially overstating the attractiveness of strategies that require frequent trading. Behavioral factors represent another limitation, as human psychology may override statistical signals, particularly during periods of extreme market stress when disciplined risk management becomes most challenging.
TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION
Performance optimization ensures reliable operation across different market conditions and timeframes. All technical analysis functions are extracted from conditional statements to maintain Pine Script compliance and ensure consistent execution. Memory efficiency is achieved through optimized variable scoping and array usage, while computational speed benefits from vectorized calculations where possible.
Data quality requirements include clean price data without gaps or errors that could distort distribution analysis. Sufficient historical data is essential, with a minimum of 100 bars required and 500 or more preferred for reliable statistical inference. Time alignment across related assets ensures meaningful comparison when conducting multi-asset analysis.
The configuration parameters are organized into logical groups to enhance usability. Core settings include the Distribution Analysis Period (100-2000 bars), Drawdown Smoothing Period (1-50 bars), and Price Source selection. Advanced metrics settings control risk-free rate sourcing, either from live market data or fixed rate specification, along with toggles for various risk-adjusted metric calculations.
Display options provide flexibility in visual presentation, including color theme selection from eight available schemes, automatic dark mode optimization, and control over table display, position lines, percentile bands, and standard deviation overlays. These options ensure that the indicator can be adapted to different analytical workflows and visual preferences.
CONCLUSION
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator provides risk management tools for traders seeking to understand their current position within historical risk patterns. By combining established statistical methodology with practical usability features, the tool enables evidence-based risk assessment and portfolio optimization decisions.
The implementation draws upon established academic research while providing practical features that address real-world trading requirements. Dynamic risk-free rate integration ensures accurate risk-adjusted performance calculations, while multiple color schemes accommodate different analytical preferences and use cases.
Academic compliance is maintained through transparent methodology and acknowledgment of limitations. The tool implements peer-reviewed statistical techniques while clearly communicating the constraints and assumptions underlying the analysis. This approach ensures that users can make informed decisions about the appropriate application of the risk assessment framework within their broader trading and investment processes.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.M. and Heath, D. (1999) 'Coherent Measures of Risk', Mathematical Finance, 9(3), pp. 203-228.
Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S. and Zabarankin, M. (2005) 'Drawdown Measure in Portfolio Optimization', International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 8(1), pp. 13-58.
Goldberg, L.R. and Mahmoud, O. (2017) 'Drawdown: From Practice to Theory and Back Again', Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 10(2), pp. 140-152.
Jorion, P. (2007) Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. 3rd edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Markowitz, H. (1952) 'Portfolio Selection', Journal of Finance, 7(1), pp. 77-91.
Sharpe, W.F. (1966) 'Mutual Fund Performance', Journal of Business, 39(1), pp. 119-138.
Sortino, F.A. and Price, L.N. (1994) 'Performance Measurement in a Downside Risk Framework', Journal of Investing, 3(3), pp. 59-64.
Young, T.W. (1991) 'Calmar Ratio: A Smoother Tool', Futures, 20(1), pp. 40-42.
Easy Position Size Calculator with Fees# Easy Position Size Calculator with Fees - Manual
## Overview
The Easy Position Size Calculator is a Pine Script indicator designed to help traders calculate the optimal position size for their trades while accounting for trading fees. This tool automatically determines whether you're planning a long or short position and calculates the exact position size needed to risk a specific dollar amount.
## Key Features
- **Automatic Trade Direction Detection**: Determines if you're going long or short based on entry price vs stop loss
- **Fee Integration**: Accounts for trading fees in position size calculations
- **Risk Management**: Calculates position size based on your specified risk amount
- **Risk Factor Adjustment**: Allows you to scale your position size up or down
- **Visual Display**: Shows all calculations in a clear, organized table
## Input Parameters
### Entry Price ($)
- **Purpose**: The price at which you plan to enter the trade
- **Default**: 0.0
- **Range**: Any positive value
- **Step**: 0.01
### Stop Loss ($)
- **Purpose**: The price at which you will exit the trade if it goes against you
- **Default**: 0.0
- **Range**: Any positive value
- **Step**: 0.01
### Risk ($)
- **Purpose**: The maximum dollar amount you're willing to lose on this trade
- **Default**: 0.0
- **Range**: Any positive value
- **Step**: 0.01
### Risk Factor
- **Purpose**: A multiplier to scale your position size up or down
- **Default**: 1.0 (no scaling)
- **Range**: 0.0 to 10.0
- **Step**: 0.1
- **Examples**:
- 1.0 = Normal position size
- 2.0 = Double the position size
- 0.5 = Half the position size
### Fee (%)
- **Purpose**: The percentage fee charged per transaction (buy/sell)
- **Default**: 0.01% (0.01)
- **Range**: 0.0% to 1.0%
- **Step**: 0.001
## How It Works
### Trade Direction Detection
The script automatically determines your trade direction:
- **Long Trade**: Entry price > Stop loss price
- **Short Trade**: Entry price < Stop loss price
### Position Size Calculation
#### For Long Trades:
```
Position Size = -Risk Factor × Risk Amount / (Stop Loss × (1 - Fee) - Entry Price × (1 + Fee))
```
#### For Short Trades:
```
Position Size = -Risk Factor × Risk Amount / (Entry Price × (1 - Fee) - Stop Loss × (1 + Fee))
```
### Fee Adjustment
The script accounts for fees on both entry and exit:
- **Long trades**: You pay fees when buying (entry) and selling (exit)
- **Short trades**: You pay fees when shorting (entry) and covering (exit)
## Output Display
The indicator displays a table with the following information:
### Trade Information
- **Trade Type**: Shows whether it's a LONG, SHORT, or INVALID trade
- **Entry Price**: Your specified entry price
- **Stop Loss**: Your specified stop loss price
- **Fee (%)**: The fee percentage being used
### Risk Parameters
- **Risk Amount**: The dollar amount you're willing to risk
- **Risk Factor**: The multiplier being applied
### Calculated Values
- **Effective Entry**: The actual cost per share including fees
- **Effective Exit**: The actual exit value per share including fees
- **Expected Loss**: The calculated loss if stop loss is hit
- **Deviation from Risk %**: Shows how close the expected loss is to your target risk
- **Position Size**: The number of shares/units to trade
## Usage Examples
### Example 1: Long Trade
- Entry Price: $100.00
- Stop Loss: $95.00
- Risk Amount: $500.00
- Risk Factor: 1.0
- Fee: 0.01%
**Result**: The script will calculate how many shares to buy so that if the stop loss is hit, you lose approximately $500 (accounting for fees). Position Size: 99.61152
### Example 2: Short Trade
- Entry Price: $50.00
- Stop Loss: $55.00
- Risk Amount: $300.00
- Risk Factor: 1.0
- Fee: 0.01%
**Result**: The script will calculate how many shares to short so that if the stop loss is hit, you lose approximately $300 (accounting for fees). Position Size: 59.87426
## Important Notes
### Validation Requirements
For the script to work properly, all of the following must be true:
- Entry price > 0
- Stop loss > 0
- Risk amount > 0
- Entry price ≠ Stop loss (to determine direction)
### Negative Position Sizes
The script may show negative position sizes, which is normal:
- **Negative values for long trades**: Represents shares to buy
- **Negative values for short trades**: Represents shares to short
### Risk Deviation
The "Deviation from Risk %" shows how closely the calculated position size matches your target risk. Small deviations are normal due to:
- Fee calculations
- Rounding
- Market precision
## Color Coding
The table uses color coding for easy identification:
- **Green**: Long trade information
- **Red**: Short trade information
- **Gray**: Invalid trade (when inputs are incorrect)
- **Blue**: Final position size
- **Red background**: Risk-related calculations
## Troubleshooting
### Common Issues
1. **Position Size shows 0**
- Check that all inputs are greater than 0
- Ensure entry price is different from stop loss
2. **Trade Type shows INVALID**
- Verify that entry price and stop loss are both positive
- Make sure entry price ≠ stop loss
3. **Large Risk Deviation**
- This is normal for very small position sizes
- Consider adjusting your risk amount or price levels
## Best Practices
1. **Always validate your inputs** before placing actual trades
2. **Double-check the trade direction** shown in the table
3. **Review the expected loss** to ensure it aligns with your risk management
4. **Consider the effective entry/exit prices** which include fees
5. **Use appropriate risk factors** - avoid extreme values that could lead to overexposure
## Disclaimer
This tool is for educational and planning purposes only. Always verify calculations manually and consider market conditions, liquidity, and other factors before placing actual trades. The script assumes that fees are charged on both entry and exit transactions.
KST Strategy [Skyrexio]Overview
KST Strategy leverages Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator in conjunction with the Williams Alligator and Moving average to obtain the high probability setups. KST is used for for having the high probability to enter in the direction of a current trend when momentum is rising, Alligator is used as a short term trend filter, while Moving average approximates the long term trend and allows trades only in its direction. Also strategy has the additional optional filter on Choppiness Index which does not allow trades if market is choppy, above the user-specified threshold. Strategy has the user specified take profit and stop-loss numbers, but multiplied by Average True Range (ATR) value on the moment when trade is open. The strategy opens only long trades.
Unique Features
ATR based stop-loss and take profit. Instead of fixed take profit and stop-loss percentage strategy utilizes user chosen numbers multiplied by ATR for its calculation.
Configurable Trading Periods. Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Optional Choppiness Index filter. Strategy allows to choose if it will use the filter trades with Choppiness Index and set up its threshold.
Methodology
The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions:
Close price is above the Alligator's jaw line
Close price is above the filtering Moving average
KST line of Know Sure Thing indicator shall cross over its signal line (details in justification of methodology)
If the Choppiness Index filter is enabled its value shall be less than user defined threshold
When the long trade is executed algorithm defines the stop-loss level as the low minus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. Also it defines take profit with close price plus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. While trade is in progress, if high price on any candle above the calculated take profit level or low price is below the calculated stop loss level, trade is closed.
Strategy settings
In the inputs window user can setup the following strategy settings:
ATR Stop Loss (by default = 1.5, number of ATRs to calculate stop-loss level)
ATR Take Profit (by default = 3.5, number of ATRs to calculate take profit level)
Filter MA Type (by default = Least Squares MA, type of moving average which is used for filter MA)
Filter MA Length (by default = 200, length for filter MA calculation)
Enable Choppiness Index Filter (by default = true, setting to choose the optional filtering using Choppiness index)
Choppiness Index Threshold (by default = 50, Choppiness Index threshold, its value shall be below it to allow trades execution)
Choppiness Index Length (by default = 14, length used in Choppiness index calculation)
KST ROC Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #2 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #3 (by default = 20, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #4 (by default = 30, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #2 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #3 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #4 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST Signal Line Length (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
User can choose the optimal parameters during backtesting on certain price chart.
Justification of Methodology
Before understanding why this particular combination of indicator has been chosen let's briefly explain what is KST, Williams Alligator, Moving Average, ATR and Choppiness Index.
The KST (Know Sure Thing) is a momentum oscillator developed by Martin Pring. It combines multiple Rate of Change (ROC) values, smoothed over different timeframes, to identify trend direction and momentum strength. First of all, what is ROC? ROC (Rate of Change) is a momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price between the current price and the price a set number of periods ago.
ROC = 100 * (Current Price - Price N Periods Ago) / Price N Periods Ago
In our case N is the KST ROC Length inputs from settings, here we will calculate 4 different ROCs to obtain KST value:
KST = ROC1_smooth × 1 + ROC2_smooth × 2 + ROC3_smooth × 3 + ROC4_smooth × 4
ROC1 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #1), smoothed by KST SMA Length #1,
ROC2 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #2), smoothed by KST SMA Length #2,
ROC3 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #3), smoothed by KST SMA Length #3,
ROC4 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #4), smoothed by KST SMA Length #4
Also for this indicator the signal line is calculated:
Signal = SMA(KST, KST Signal Line Length)
When the KST line rises, it indicates increasing momentum and suggests that an upward trend may be developing. Conversely, when the KST line declines, it reflects weakening momentum and a potential downward trend. A crossover of the KST line above its signal line is considered a buy signal, while a crossover below the signal line is viewed as a sell signal. If the KST stays above zero, it indicates overall bullish momentum; if it remains below zero, it points to bearish momentum. The KST indicator smooths momentum across multiple timeframes, helping to reduce noise and provide clearer signals for medium- to long-term trends.
Next, let’s discuss the short-term trend filter, which combines the Williams Alligator and Williams Fractals. Williams Alligator
Developed by Bill Williams, the Alligator is a technical indicator that identifies trends and potential market reversals. It consists of three smoothed moving averages:
Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest of the three, based on a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars ahead.
Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, derived from an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward.
Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, calculated using a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward.
When the lines diverge and align in order, the "Alligator" is "awake," signaling a strong trend. When the lines overlap or intertwine, the "Alligator" is "asleep," indicating a range-bound or sideways market. This indicator helps traders determine when to enter or avoid trades.
The next indicator is Moving Average. It has a lot of different types which can be chosen to filter trades and the Least Squares MA is used by default settings. Let's briefly explain what is it.
The Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) — also known as Linear Regression Moving Average — is a trend-following indicator that uses the least squares method to fit a straight line to the price data over a given period, then plots the value of that line at the most recent point. It draws the best-fitting straight line through the past N prices (using linear regression), and then takes the endpoint of that line as the value of the moving average for that bar. The LSMA aims to reduce lag and highlight the current trend more accurately than traditional moving averages like SMA or EMA.
Key Features:
It reacts faster to price changes than most moving averages.
It is smoother and less noisy than short-term EMAs.
It can be used to identify trend direction, momentum, and potential reversal points.
ATR (Average True Range) is a volatility indicator that measures how much an asset typically moves during a given period. It was introduced by J. Welles Wilder and is widely used to assess market volatility, not direction.
To calculate it first of all we need to get True Range (TR), this is the greatest value among:
High - Low
abs(High - Previous Close)
abs(Low - Previous Close)
ATR = MA(TR, n) , where n is number of periods for moving average, in our case equals 14.
ATR shows how much an asset moves on average per candle/bar. A higher ATR means more volatility; a lower ATR means a calmer market.
The Choppiness Index is a technical indicator that quantifies whether the market is trending or choppy (sideways). It doesn't indicate trend direction — only the strength or weakness of a trend. Higher Choppiness Index usually approximates the sideways market, while its low value tells us that there is a high probability of a trend.
Choppiness Index = 100 × log10(ΣATR(n) / (MaxHigh(n) - MinLow(n))) / log10(n)
where:
ΣATR(n) = sum of the Average True Range over n periods
MaxHigh(n) = highest high over n periods
MinLow(n) = lowest low over n periods
log10 = base-10 logarithm
Now let's understand how these indicators work in conjunction and why they were chosen for this strategy. KST indicator approximates current momentum, when it is rising and KST line crosses over the signal line there is high probability that short term trend is reversing to the upside and strategy allows to take part in this potential move. Alligator's jaw (blue) line is used as an approximation of a short term trend, taking trades only above it we want to avoid trading against trend to increase probability that long trade is going to be winning.
Almost the same for Moving Average, but it approximates the long term trend, this is just the additional filter. If we trade in the direction of the long term trend we increase probability that higher risk to reward trade will hit the take profit. Choppiness index is the optional filter, but if it turned on it is used for approximating if now market is in sideways or in trend. On the range bounded market the potential moves are restricted. We want to decrease probability opening trades in such condition avoiding trades if this index is above threshold value.
When trade is open script sets the stop loss and take profit targets. ATR approximates the current volatility, so we can make a decision when to exit a trade based on current market condition, it can increase the probability that strategy will avoid the excessive stop loss hits, but anyway user can setup how many ATRs to use as a stop loss and take profit target. As was said in the Methodology stop loss level is obtained by subtracting number of ATRs from trade opening candle low, while take profit by adding to this candle's close.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2025.05.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 60%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -5.53%
Maximum Single Profit: +8.35%
Net Profit: +5175.20 USDT (+51.75%)
Total Trades: 120 (56.67% win rate)
Profit Factor: 1.747
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 1039.89 USDT (-9.1%)
Average Profit per Trade: 43.13 USDT (+0.6%)
Average Trade Duration: 27 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 1h BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrexio commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation.
Lorentzian Classification - Advanced Trading DashboardLorentzian Classification - Relativistic Market Analysis
A Journey from Theory to Trading Reality
What began as fascination with Einstein's relativity and Lorentzian geometry has evolved into a practical trading tool that bridges theoretical physics and market dynamics. This indicator represents months of wrestling with complex mathematical concepts, debugging intricate algorithms, and transforming abstract theory into actionable trading signals.
The Theoretical Foundation
Lorentzian Distance in Market Space
Traditional Euclidean distance treats all feature differences equally, but markets don't behave uniformly. Lorentzian distance, borrowed from spacetime geometry, provides a more nuanced similarity measure:
d(x,y) = Σ ln(1 + |xi - yi|)
This logarithmic formulation naturally handles:
Scale invariance: Large price moves don't overwhelm small but significant patterns
Outlier robustness: Extreme values are dampened rather than dominating
Non-linear relationships: Captures market behavior better than linear metrics
K-Nearest Neighbors with Relativistic Weighting
The algorithm searches historical market states for patterns similar to current conditions. Each neighbor receives weight inversely proportional to its Lorentzian distance:
w = 1 / (1 + distance)
This creates a "gravitational" effect where closer patterns have stronger influence on predictions.
The Implementation Challenge
Creating meaningful market features required extensive experimentation:
Price Features: Multi-timeframe momentum (1, 2, 3, 5, 8 bar lookbacks) Volume Features: Relative volume analysis against 20-period average
Volatility Features: ATR and Bollinger Band width normalization Momentum Features: RSI deviation from neutral and MACD/price ratio
Each feature undergoes min-max normalization to ensure equal weighting in distance calculations.
The Prediction Mechanism
For each current market state:
Feature Vector Construction: 12-dimensional representation of market conditions
Historical Search: Scan lookback period for similar patterns using Lorentzian distance
Neighbor Selection: Identify K nearest historical matches
Outcome Analysis: Examine what happened N bars after each match
Weighted Prediction: Combine outcomes using distance-based weights
Confidence Calculation: Measure agreement between neighbors
Technical Hurdles Overcome
Array Management: Complex indexing to prevent look-ahead bias
Distance Calculations: Optimizing nested loops for performance
Memory Constraints: Balancing lookback depth with computational limits
Signal Filtering: Preventing clustering of identical signals
Advanced Dashboard System
Main Control Panel
The primary dashboard provides real-time market intelligence:
Signal Status: Current prediction with confidence percentage
Neighbor Analysis: How many historical patterns match current conditions
Market Regime: Trend strength, volatility, and volume analysis
Temporal Context: Real-time updates with timestamp
Performance Analytics
Comprehensive tracking system monitors:
Win Rate: Percentage of successful predictions
Signal Count: Total predictions generated
Streak Analysis: Current winning/losing sequence
Drawdown Monitoring: Maximum equity decline
Sharpe Approximation: Risk-adjusted performance estimate
Risk Assessment Panel
Multi-dimensional risk analysis:
RSI Positioning: Overbought/oversold conditions
ATR Percentage: Current volatility relative to price
Bollinger Position: Price location within volatility bands
MACD Alignment: Momentum confirmation
Confidence Heatmap
Visual representation of prediction reliability:
Historical Confidence: Last 10 periods of prediction certainty
Strength Analysis: Magnitude of prediction values over time
Pattern Recognition: Color-coded confidence levels for quick assessment
Input Parameters Deep Dive
Core Algorithm Settings
K Nearest Neighbors (1-20): More neighbors create smoother but less responsive signals. Optimal range 5-8 for most markets.
Historical Lookback (50-500): Deeper history improves pattern recognition but reduces adaptability. 100-200 bars optimal for most timeframes.
Feature Window (5-30): Longer windows capture more context but reduce sensitivity. Match to your trading timeframe.
Feature Selection
Price Changes: Essential for momentum and reversal detection Volume Profile: Critical for institutional activity recognition Volatility Measures: Key for regime change detection Momentum Indicators: Vital for trend confirmation
Signal Generation
Prediction Horizon (1-20): How far ahead to predict. Shorter horizons for scalping, longer for swing trading.
Signal Threshold (0.5-0.9): Confidence required for signal generation. Higher values reduce false signals but may miss opportunities.
Smoothing (1-10): EMA applied to raw predictions. More smoothing reduces noise but increases lag.
Visual Design Philosophy
Color Themes
Professional: Corporate blue/red for institutional environments Neon: Cyberpunk cyan/magenta for modern aesthetics
Matrix: Green/red hacker-inspired palette Classic: Traditional trading colors
Information Hierarchy
The dashboard system prioritizes information by importance:
Primary Signals: Largest, most prominent display
Confidence Metrics: Secondary but clearly visible
Supporting Data: Detailed but unobtrusive
Historical Context: Available but not distracting
Trading Applications
Signal Interpretation
Long Signals: Prediction > threshold with high confidence
Look for volume confirmation
- Check trend alignment
- Verify support levels
Short Signals: Prediction < -threshold with high confidence
Confirm with resistance levels
- Check for distribution patterns
- Verify momentum divergence
- Market Regime Adaptation
Trending Markets: Higher confidence in directional signals
Ranging Markets: Focus on reversal signals at extremes
Volatile Markets: Require higher confidence thresholds
Low Volume: Reduce position sizes, increase caution
Risk Management Integration
Confidence-Based Sizing: Larger positions for higher confidence signals
Regime-Aware Stops: Wider stops in volatile regimes
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Align signals across timeframes
Volume Confirmation: Require volume support for major signals
Originality and Innovation
This indicator represents genuine innovation in several areas:
Mathematical Approach
First application of Lorentzian geometry to market pattern recognition. Unlike Euclidean-based systems, this naturally handles market non-linearities.
Feature Engineering
Sophisticated multi-dimensional feature space combining price, volume, volatility, and momentum in normalized form.
Visualization System
Professional-grade dashboard system providing comprehensive market intelligence in intuitive format.
Performance Tracking
Real-time performance analytics typically found only in institutional trading systems.
Development Journey
Creating this indicator involved overcoming numerous technical challenges:
Mathematical Complexity: Translating theoretical concepts into practical code
Performance Optimization: Balancing accuracy with computational efficiency
User Interface Design: Making complex data accessible and actionable
Signal Quality: Filtering noise while maintaining responsiveness
The result is a tool that brings institutional-grade analytics to individual traders while maintaining the theoretical rigor of its mathematical foundation.
Best Practices
- Parameter Optimization
- Start with default settings and adjust based on:
Market Characteristics: Volatile vs. stable
Trading Timeframe: Scalping vs. swing trading
Risk Tolerance: Conservative vs. aggressive
Signal Confirmation
Never trade on Lorentzian signals alone:
Price Action: Confirm with support/resistance
Volume: Verify with volume analysis
Multiple Timeframes: Check higher timeframe alignment
Market Context: Consider overall market conditions
Risk Management
Position Sizing: Scale with confidence levels
Stop Losses: Adapt to market volatility
Profit Targets: Based on historical performance
Maximum Risk: Never exceed 2-3% per trade
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or guarantee profitable trading results. The Lorentzian classification system reveals market patterns but cannot predict future price movements with certainty. Always use proper risk management, conduct your own analysis, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Market dynamics are inherently uncertain, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This tool should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy, not as a standalone solution.
Bringing the elegance of relativistic geometry to market analysis through sophisticated pattern recognition and intuitive visualization.
Thank you for sharing the idea. You're more than a follower, you're a leader!
@vasanthgautham1221
Trade with precision. Trade with insight.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
Risk Calculator PRO — manual lot size + auto lot-suggestionWhy risk management?
90 % of traders blow up because they size positions emotionally. This tool forces Risk-First Thinking: choose the amount you’re willing to lose, and the script reverse-engineers everything else.
Key features
1. Manual or Market Entry – click “Use current price” or type a custom entry.
2. Setup-based ₹-Risk – four presets (A/B/C/D). Edit to your workflow.
3. Lot-Size Input + Auto Lot Suggestion – you tell the contract size ⇒ script tells you how many lots.
4. Auto-SL (optional) – tick to push stop-loss to exactly 1-lot risk.
5. Instant Targets – 1 : 2, 1 : 3, 1 : 4, 1 : 5 plotted and alert-ready.
6. P&L Preview – table shows potential profit at each R-multiple plus real ₹ at SL.
7. Margin Column – enter per-lot margin once; script totals it for any size.
8. Clean Table UI – dark/light friendly; updates every 5 bars.
9. Alert Pack – SL, each target, plus copy-paste journal line on the chart.
How to use
1. Add to chart > “Format”.
2. Type the lot size for the symbol (e.g., 1250 for Natural Gas, 1 for cash equity).
3. Pick Side (Buy / Sell) & Setup grade.
4. ✅ If you want the script to place SL for you, tick Auto-SL (risk = 1 lot).
5. Otherwise type your own Stop-loss.
6. Read the table:
• Suggested lots = how many to trade so risk ≤ setup ₹.
• Risk (currency) = real money lost if SL hits.
7. Set TradingView alerts on the built-in conditions (T1_2, SL_hit, etc.) if you’d like push / email.
8. Copy the orange CSV label to Excel / Sheets for journalling.
Best practices
• Never raise risk to “fit” a trade. Lower size instead.
• Review win-rate vs. R multiple monthly; adjust setups A–D accordingly.
• Test Auto-SL in replay before going live.
Disclaimer
This script is educational. Past performance ≠ future results. The author isn’t responsible for trading losses.
