OVL_Kikoocycle Beta_Pine3This script use :
- A custom Chande Kroll Stop for generate the channel
- Some custom Parabolic S.A.R for generate cycles
This script can be separated into 3 categories:
- Channel Kroll generator : one layer for the actual interval and a layer for a Large Timeframe .(with ratio)
- "Range" generator : one layer for actual Interval and a layer for a Large Timeframe.(with automique ratio)
-Targets generator : one layer for actual interval with different trend.
"Channel Kroll" :
- I "hijack" the Chande Kroll Stop formula with custom parameters for generate this channel. Overall, it works like other types of channels like BB, etc... A midline and two borders. The thickness of the borders are relatively important here. A thick border shows some resistance of the area. And so the probability of seeing the market return to its first contact is stronger. While a very thin and vertical border would rather play the role of a breach, a bit like the idea of gaps. Often the market seems to want to go after several cycles.
You can activate its Large TimeFrame version, its midline is strong and fine borders helps to judge the risk.
SARget + "SAR Limited" :
- (S.A.R + targets) The philosophy of this function is simple... When a small cycle is broken, it creates a mark on a higher cycle. So on until the SAR called "SAR Limited". For simplicity, imagine a fractal image but inverted ... Break the small figure, it will mark the larger figure at this time but to get there you still have to make the way to the small figure.
Targets are : cross ("+") for fast targets(hidden by default because, theire work only on lower interval), squares (for medium trend), Xcross(for large trend) and red cross(they try to find a large contexte). When a target proc, it is for later (market need some cycles for going to, but it is relative to your interval). This gives you speculative goals.
Why 2 targets for a same type and a triangle with a 90deg angle : This give a potential area for management.The triangle help to visualize the SAR and to juge the market reaction. You need to adapte your trade with that...
Targets may be slightly too far because I am a bad coder... Currently the targets appear at the moment of rupture but it would be necessary to wait for the end of the breaking movement. Which can bring a positional error if the break is violent.
RnG and LTF RnG :
- Attempt to generate a Fibo range for each cycle and see interressing areas to enter or exit. This is played with the same philosophy as the Fibo extensions and retracement.
When a new RnG is generated, do not rush. It appears showing 50/50 for both sides. When a new RnG is generated, do not rush. It appears showing 50/50 for both sides. As long as the market is out of the middle zone (the 3 lines) keep in mind the past RnG.
When the market is out of range, you can use the FibRetracement tool for have extensions. One point at each end, as on the presentation graph. (Values 1.14, 1.272, 1.414, 1.618, 1.786, 2, 2.4 and 4 work well.) If too extrem you can active the LTF version.
Never fomo a break, market like to pull a level... Observe and be patient.
It's easier to use than to explain xD
NB : Do not use the LTF as context. For this, it is better to look at a higher interval.
I invite you to look in the style tab of the script and deselect the plots named UNCHECKEME, this will ease your browser.
在腳本中搜尋"北证50指数的股票交易方式"
Amazing Crossover System - 100+ pips per day!I got the main concept for this system on another site. While I have made one important change, I must stress that the heart of this system was created by someone else! We must give credit where credit is due!
Y'all know baby pips. @ForexPhantom published about this system and did both back and forward test around 10 years ago.
I found it on the sit and now I put it to code to see how it performs. I assume 10 points spread for every trade. I use Renesource or AxiTrader to get the low spreads.
There are 2 mods, the single trades and constant trading on the direction.
Main concept
Indicators
5 EMA -- YELLOW
10 EMA -- RED
RSI (10 - Apply to Median Price: HL/2) -- One level at 50.
TIME FRAME
1 Hour Only (very important!)
PAIRS
Virtually any pair seems to work as this is strictly technical analysis.
I recommend sticking to the main currencies and avoiding cross currencies (just his preference).
WHEN TO ENTER A TRADE
Enter LONG when the Yellow EMA crosses the Red EMA from underneath.
RSI must be approaching 50 from the BOTTOM and cross 50 to warrant entry.
Enter SHORT when the Yellow EMA crosses the Red EMA from the top.
RSI must be approaching 50 from the TOP and cross 50 to warrant entry.
I've attached a picture which demonstrates all these conditions.
That's it!
f.bpcdn.co
MFIww MFI/RSI_v2[wozdux]A new version of the indicator Mfi_v2. Added new control parameters.
tt - the averaging period of the volume.
Len - the period for calculating the MPI.
nn-averaging period MFI (blue line). level-critical levels from below and above (black horizontal lines).
Level 0 or 50 - switch between different histogram views with the middle at either level 50 or level 0.
key level-key to remove black critical levels.
key ema (MFI, nn) - key to remove mfi averaging (blue line).
key color-key to remove histogram coloring.
key colomns a-line - key switching modes represent the mfi histrogram or line.
---------------------------
Новая версия индикатора MFIww_v2. Добавлены новые управляющие параметры.
tt- период усреднения объема.
Len - период вычисления MFI.
nn- период усреднения MFI (голубая линия).
level- критические уровни снизу и сверху (черные горизонтальные линии).
Level 0 or 50 - переключение между разными представлениями гистрограммы с серединой либо на уровне 50 , либо на уровне 0.
key level- ключ убрать черные критические уровни.
key ema(mfi,nn) - ключ убрать усреднение mfi (голубая линия).
key color- ключ убрать расцветку гистрограммы.
key colomns-line - ключ переключения режимов представления mfi гистрограммой или линией.
GoTiT|Simple Auto Fib v1.0Simple Auto Fib!
Notes:
1. Always set the trend manually! Don't rely on the auto trend detection.
2. The first parameter Length sets the number of candles back (left) to search for highs and lows from the current candle.
3. The High Offset parameter sets the number of candles back (left) to ignore/skip before searching for highs.
4. The Low Offset parameter sets the number of candles back (left) to ignore/skip before searching for lows.
5. The offset parameters change the behavior of the Length parameter.
Example 1:
Length = 100
High Offset = 0
Low Offset = 0
This is the default behavior, and the search for highs and lows occurs on the last 100 candles.
Example 2:
Length = 50
High Offset = 20 (Ignore the last 20 candles, and search for highs starting at candle 21 to 71 (or 50 candles back)
Low Offset = 15 (Ignore the last 15 candles, and search for lows starting at candle 16 to 66 (or 50 candles back)
In example 2, search starts on candle 21 for highs, and candle 16 for lows and extends 50 candles further back from there.
6. The Trend Detection parameter sets the number of candles back (left) to use in the trend calculations. Larger values give better "marco trend" detection. Smaller values give better "micro trend" detection. See note #1.
7. The white fib line is fib0. Assuming you correctly set the trend manually (or the trend is auto detected correctly), in a downtrend fib0 should be bellow the red fib line, and in an uptrend fib0 should be above the red fib line.
MACD + Stochastic + RSI (Long + Short)My strategy uses a combination of three indicators MACD Stochastic RSI .
The Idea is to GO LONG when ( MACD > Signal and RSI > 50 and Stochastic > 50) occures at the same time
and GO SHORT when ( MACD < Signal and RSI < 50 and Stochastic < 50)
This strategy works well on futures and stocks especially during market breaking up after consolidation
The best results are on Daily charts , so its NOT a scalping strategy. But it can work also on 1H charts.
The strategy does not have any stops and profit targets, so we can take all the market can give us at the moment.
The exit point only when MACD goes under/over Signal line
Its Preformance is quite stable.
So, use it, trade it.
If it will help you to imprive your trading results, please donate me
BTC: 12kd1F8buWisUBdq27BBwRkUvzW7Ey3og5
Trend Lines and MoreMulti-Indicator consisting of several useful indicators in a single package.
TREND LINES
-By default the 20 SMA and 50 SMA are shown.
-Use "MOVING AVERAGE TYPE" to select SMA, EMA, Double-EMA, Triple-EMA, or Hull.
-Use "50 MA TREND COLOR" to have the 50 turn green/red for uptrend/downtrend.
-Use "DAILY SOURCE ONLY" to always show daily averages regardless of timeframe.
-Use "SHOW LONG MA" to also include 100, 150, and 200 moving averages.
-Use "SHOW MARKERS" to show a small colored marker identifying which line is which.
OTHER INDICATORS
-You can show Bollinger Bands and Parabolic SAR.
-You can highlight key reversal times (9:50-10:10 and 14:40-15:00).
-You can show price offset markers, where was the price "n" periods ago.
That last one is useful to show the level of prices which are about to "fall off" the moving average
and be replaced with current price. So for example, if current price is significantly below the
200-days-ago price, you can gauge the difficulty for the 200 MA to start climbing again.
Multi SMA EMA WMA HMA BB (4x3 MAs Bollinger Bands) Pro MTF - RRBMulti SMA EMA WMA HMA 4x3 Moving Averages with Bollinger Bands Pro MTF by RagingRocketBull 2018
Version 1.0
This indicator shows multiple MAs of any type SMA EMA WMA HMA etc with BB and MTF support, can show MAs as dynamically moving levels.
There are 4 MA groups + 1 BB group. You can assign any type/timeframe combo to a group, for example:
- EMAs 50,100,200 x H1, H4, D1, W1 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 1 type)
- EMAs 8,13,21,55,100,200 x M15, H1 (2 TFs x 6 MAs x 1 type)
- D1 EMAs and SMAs 12,26,50,100,200,400 (1 TF x 6 MAs x 2 types)
- H1 WMAs 7,77,231; H4 HMAs 50,100,200; D1 EMAs 144,169,233; W1 SMAs 50,100,200 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 4 types)
- +1 extra MA type/timeframe for BB
compile time: 25-30 sec
full redraw time after parameter change in UI: 3 sec
There are several versions: Simple, MTF, Pro MTF, Advanced MTF and Ultimate MTF. This is the Pro MTF version. The Differences are listed below. All versions have BB
- Simple: you have 2 groups of MAs that can be assigned any type (5+5)
- MTF: +2 custom Timeframes for each group (2x5 MTF)
- Pro MTF: +4 custom Timeframes for each group (4x3 MTF), MA levels and show max bars back options
- Advanced MTF: +2 extra MAs/group (4x5 MTF), custom Ticker/Symbol, backreferences for type, TF and MA lengths in UI
- Ultimate MTF: +individual settings for each MA, custom Ticker/Symbols
Features:
- 4x3 = 12 MAs of any type including Hull Moving Average (HMA)
- 4x MTF groups with step line smoothing
- BB +1 extra TF/type for BB MAs
- 12 MA levels with adjustable group offsets, indents and shift
- show max bars back
- you can show/hide both groups of MAs/levels and individual MAs
Notes:
1. based on 3EmaBB, uses plot*, barssince and security functions
2. you can't set certain constants from input due to Pinescript limitations - change the code as needed, recompile and use as a private version
3. Levels = trackprice implementation
4. Show Max Bars Back = show_last implementation
5. uses timeframe textbox instead of input resolution to allow for 120 240 and other custom TFs. Also supports TFs in hours: 2H or H2
6. swma has a fixed length = 4, alma and linreg have additional offset and smoothing params
7. Smoothing is applied by default for visual aesthetics on MTF. To use exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping) - disable it
MTF Notes:
- uses simple timeframe textbox instead of input resolution dropdown to allow for 120, 240 and other custom TFs, also supports timeframes in H: 2H, H2
- Groups that are not assigned a Custom TF will use Current Timeframe (0).
- MTF will work for any MA type assigned to the group
- MTF works both ways: you can display a higher TF MA/BB on a lower TF or a lower TF MA/BB on a higher TF.
- MTF MA values are normally aligned at the boundary of their native timeframe. This produces stair stepping when a higher TF MA is viewed on a lower TF.
Therefore X Y Point Density/Smoothing is applied by default on MA MTF for visual aesthetics. Set both to 0 to disable and see exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping and original mtf alignment).
- Smoothing is disabled for BB MTF bands because fill doesn't work with smoothed MAs after duplicate values are replaced with na.
- MTF MA Value fluctuation is possible on the current bar due to default security lookahead
Smoothing:
- X,Y == 0 - X,Y smoothing disabled (stair stepping on high TFs)
- X == 0, Y > 0 - X,Y smoothing applied to all TFs
- Y == 0, X > 0 - X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf, Y smoothing disabled
- X > 0, Y > 0 - Y smoothing applied to all TFs, then X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf
X Smoothing with Y == 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the first bar.
X Smoothing with Y > 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the last shown Y point, essentially filling huge gaps remaining after Y Smoothing with points and preserving the curve's general shape
X Smoothing on high TFs with already scarce points produces weird curve shapes, it works best only on high density lower TFs
Y Smoothing reduces points on all TFs, removes adjacent points with prices within deltaY, while preserving the smaller curve details.
A combination of X,Y produces the most accurate smoothing. Higher delta value - larger range, more points removed.
Show Max Bars Back:
- can't set plot show_last from input -> implemented using a timenow based range check
- you can't delete/modify history once plotted, so essentially it just sets a start point for plotting (from num_bars bars back) that works only in realtime mode (not in replay)
Levels:
You can plot current MA value using plot trackprice=true or by checking Show Price Line in Style. Problem is:
- you can only change color (not the dashed line style, width), have both ma + price line (not just the line), and it's full screen wide
- you can't set plot trackprice from input => implemented using plotshape/plotchar with fixed text labels serving as levels
- there's no other way of creating a dynamic level: hline, plot, offset - nothing else works.
- you can't plot a text var - all text strings must be constants, so you can't change the style, width and text labels without recompiling.
- from input you can only adjust offset, indent and shift for each level group, and change color
- the dot below each level line is the exact MA value. If you want just the line swap plotshape with plotchar, recompile and save as your private version, adjust Y shift.
To speed up redraw times: reduce last_bars to ~2000, recompile and use as your own private version
Pinescript is a rudimentary language (should be called Painscript instead) that can basically only plot data. You can't do much else. Please see the code for tips and hints.
Certain things just can't be done or require shady workarounds and weeks of testing trying to resolve weird node.js compiler errors.
Feel free to learn from/reuse/change the code as needed and use as your own private version. See comments in code. Good Luck!
Simple_longshort_signalsLong Entry
Criteria:
1) Green candle close above 50MA
2) Green candle close above 20MA
3) MA of RSI(14) is cross upward 50
Result: displays green up arrow
Long Exit
Criteria:
1) Three red candles in a row
2) Any candle close bellow 20MA
3) MA of RSI(14) cross downward 50
Result: displays green diamond
Short Entry
1) Red candle close bellow 50MA
2) Red candle close bellow 20MA
3) MA of RSI(14) is cross downward 50
Result: displays red down arrow
Short Exit
Criteria
1) Three green candles in a row
2) Any candle close above 20MA
3) MA of RSI(14) is cross upward 50
Result: displays red diamond
Noro's Double RSI Strategy 1.0Strategy uses only 2 RSI indicators. Slow and fast.
If slow RSI > 50 and fast RSI < 50 - to open a long-position
If slow RSI < 50 and fast RSI > 50 - to open a short-position
If the long-position is open and a candle green - to close a long-position
if the short-position is open and a candle red - to close a short-position
GoldenCross by PuffyThis is a simple trading strategy that seeks the Golden Cross and Death Cross on the 4HR chart. The fast moving indicator in this strategy is the EMA 50 and the slow moving indicator is the EMA 200. When the EMA 50 crosses over the EMA 200 the strategy indicates a buy. When the EMA 50 crosses below the EMA 200 the strategy indicates a sell. This strategy averages trades in the 40 - 50 day range and as such should not be used with heavy leverage.
Exponential Moving Average (Set of 3) [Krypt] + 13/34 EMAsI took Krypt's script and essentially added on to it.
the 20/50/100/200 EMAs should be used together as support and resistance as normal.
Wait for price to break 200 EMA
Wait for 50 EMA to cross 200 EMA
Wait for pullback to 50 EMA to open position
20 and 100 EMAs are for extra information about moving support and resistance
and 13/34 EMAs should be used in conjunction
When 13 EMA crosses 34 EMA, open position
When price gets far from 13/34, close position (because price will attempt to revert back to mean)
This is better for scalping and swing trades than the 20/50/100/200 setup.
Twitter: @AzorAhai06
MTF EMAExponential Moving Average indicator that can be configured to display different timeframe EMA's.
Timeframe is set in minutes. Max timeframe currently is the daily (1440 minutes). Any value higher than 1440 will result in no plot.
Examples:
Daily 50 EMA plotted on 4H chart
4H 50 EMA and Daily 50 EMA plotted on 1H chart
Can also work in reverse if needed.
Example, Daily 50 EMA plotted on Weekly Chart
Price vs VolImproved version of OBV/price (this one actually works)
Both lines show where price is going relative to volume metrics (one line uses OBV, the other uses accumulation/distribution).
Green and above 50 means price is rising faster then buying volume
Red and below 50 means price is falling faster then selling volume
you can add smoothing in the controls and color will go according to raw (even if smoothing goes above/below 50)
under the hood: changes price, OBV and AD to RSI for comparability, calculates the difference between price and the others, then an RSI on the result to create an <50< style indicator.
this script replaces the previouse from:
MNQ Morning Indicator | Clean SignalsMNQ Morning Trading Indicator Summary
What It Does
This is a TradingView indicator designed for day trading MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100 futures) during morning sessions. It generates BUY and SELL signals only when multiple technical conditions align, helping traders identify high-probability trade setups.
Core Strategy
BUY Signal Requirements (All must be true):
✅ Price above VWAP (volume-weighted average price)
✅ Fast EMA (9) above Slow EMA (21) - uptrend confirmation
✅ Price above 15-minute 50 EMA - higher timeframe confirmation
✅ MACD histogram positive - momentum confirmation
✅ RSI above 55 - strength confirmation
✅ ADX above 25 - trending market (not choppy)
✅ Volume 1.5x above average - strong participation
SELL Signal (opposite conditions)
Key Features
🎯 Risk Management
Stop Loss: 2× ATR (Average True Range)
Take Profit 1: 2× ATR (1:2 risk-reward)
Take Profit 2: 3× ATR (1:3 risk-reward)
Dollar values: Calculates P&L based on MNQ's $2/point value
⏰ Session Filter
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (customizable)
Safety feature: Avoids first 15 minutes (high volatility period)
Won't generate signals outside trading hours
🛡️ Signal Quality
Rates each signal: 🔥 STRONG, ⚡ MEDIUM, or ⚠️ WEAK
Requires minimum 15 bars between signals (prevents overtrading)
📊 Visual Dashboard
Shows real-time metrics:
ATR values
ADX (trend strength)
RSI (momentum)
Market condition (TREND/CHOP)
Session status
Volume status
Signal cooldown timer
Visual Elements
📈 VWAP with standard deviation bands (1σ, 2σ, 3σ)
📉 Multiple EMAs with trend-based coloring
🟢/🔴 Buy/Sell arrows on chart
📋 Detailed trade labels showing entry, SL, TPs, and risk-reward ratios
🎨 Background highlighting for market conditions
Safety Features
Cooldown period between signals
Session restrictions (no trading outside set hours)
First 15-minute avoidance (post-open volatility)
Multi-confirmation requirement (all 7 conditions must align)
Trend filter (ADX minimum to avoid choppy markets)
Best For
Day traders focused on morning sessions
MNQ futures traders
Traders who prefer systematic, rule-based entries
Those wanting pre-calculated risk management levels
Customization
All parameters are adjustable:
EMA periods
MACD settings
RSI thresholds
ADX minimum
ATR multipliers
Session times
Visual preferences
This indicator is designed to be conservative — it waits for strong confirmation before signaling, which means fewer but potentially higher-quality trades.
Parabolic Short Criteria Parabolic Short Criteria
This indicator identifies overextended stocks that may be prime candidates for parabolic short setups, based on criteria by Bracco (@Braczyy on twitter/X) in his writeup "The Parabolic Short" (unchartedterritoryy.substack.com). One of the best in the game at Parabolic Short setups.
What It Measures:
The indicator calculates and displays metrics that quantify how overextended a stock is relative to key moving averages and its recent price action:
Distance Metrics:
ATR Extension above 50 SMA: Measures how many ATRs (Average True Range) the current price is above the 50-day Simple Moving Average. Higher values indicate extreme extension.
% Above 9/20/50/200 Moving Averages: Shows the percentage distance between current price and each key moving average level.
Momentum Metrics:
Consecutive Green Days: Counts how many days in a row the stock has closed higher
Consecutive Gap Ups: Tracks sequential gap-up openings (today's low > yesterday's high)
Range Expansion: Analyzes how many of the last 4 days showed larger percentage moves than the prior day
Volume Expansion: Counts consecutive days of increasing volume
Color Coding System:
Each metric uses a 4-tier color system for quick visual assessment:
Dark Green: Extremely overextended (highest alert level)
Light Green: Significantly overextended
Yellow: Moderately overextended
Red: Not overextended
Use Case:
This indicator is designed for traders looking to identify parabolic moves that have reached unsustainable levels. When multiple metrics show dark green or green, the stock may be due for a pullback or reversal. Not all criteria are often met at once, but the more the better.
GRG/RGR Signal, MA, Ranges and PivotsThis indicator is a combination of several indicators.
It is a combination of two of my indicators which I solely use for trading
1. EMA 10-20-50-200, Pivots and Previous Day/Week/Month range
2. 3/4-Bar GRG / RGR Pattern (Conditional 4th Candle)
You can use them individually if you already have some of them or just use this one. Belive me when I say, this is all you need, along with market structure knowlege and even if you don’t have that, this indicator has been doing wonders for me. This is all I use. I do not use anything else.
**Note - Do checkout the indicators individually as I have added valuable information in the comment section.
It contains the following,
1. 10 EMA/SMA - configurable
2. 20 EMA/SMA - configurable
3. 50 EMA/SMA - configurable
4. 200 EMA/SMA - configurable
5. Previous Day's Range - configurable
6. Previous Week's Range - configurable
7. Previous Month's Range - configurable
8. Pivots - configurable
9. Buy Sell Signal - configurable
The Moving Averages
It is a very important combination and using it correctly with price action will strengthen your entries and exits.
The ema's or sma's added are the most powerful ones and they do definitely act as support and resistance.
The Daily/Weekly/Monthly Ranges
The Daily/Weekly/Monthly ranges are extremely important for any trader and should be used for targets and reversals.
Pivots
Pivots can provide support and resistance level. R5 and S5 can be used to check for over stretched conditions. You can customise them however you like. It is a full pivot indicator.
It is defaulted to show R5 and S5 only to reduce noise in the chart but it can be customised.
The 3/4 RGR or GRG Signal Generator
Combined with a 3/4 RGR or GRG setup can be all a trader needs.
You don't need complex strategies and SMC concepts to trade. Simple EMAs, ranges and RGR/GRG setup is the most winning combination.
This indicator can be used to identify the Green-Red-Green or Red-Green-Red pattern.
It is a price action indicator where a price action which identifies the defeat of buyers and sellers.
If the buyers comprehensively defeat the sellers then the price moves up and if the sellers defeat the buyers then the price moves down.
In my trading experience this is what defines the price movement.
It is a 3 or 4 candle pattern, beyond that i.e, 5 or more candles could mean a very sideways market and unnecessary signal generation.
How does it work?
Upside/Green signal
1. Say candle 1 is Green, which means buyers stepped in, then candle 2 is Red or a Doji, that means sellers brought the price down. Then if candle 3 is forming to be Green and breaks the closing of the 1st candle and opening of the 2nd candle, then a green arrow will appear and that is the place where you want to take your trade.
2. Here the buyers defeated the sellers.
3. Sometimes candle 3 falls short but candle 4 breaks candle 1's closing and candle 2's opening price. We can enter on candle 4.
4. Important - We need to enter the trade as soon as the price moves above the candle 1 and 2's body and should not wait for the 3rd or 4th candle to close. Ignore wicks.
5. But for a more optimised entry I have added an option to use candle’s highs and lows instead of open and close. This reduces lot of noise and provides us with more precise entry. This setting is turned on by default.
6. I have restricted it to 4 candles and that is all that is needed. More than that is a longer sideways market.
7. I call it the +-+ or GRG pattern or Green-Red-Green or Buyer-Seller-Buyer or Seller defeated or just Buyer pattern.
8. Stop loss can be candle 2's mid for safe traders (that includes me) or candle 2's body low for risky traders.
9. Back testing suggests that body low will be useless and result in more points in loss because for the bigger move this point will not be touched, so why not get out faster.
Downside/Red signal
1. Say candle 1 is Red, which means sellers stepped in, then candle 2 is Green or a Doji, that means buyers took the price up. Then if candle 3 is forming to be Red and breaks the closing of the 1st candle and opening of the 2nd candle then a Red arrow will appear and that is the place where you want to take your trade.
2. Sometimes candle 3 falls short but candle 4 breaks candle 1's closing and candle 2's opening price. We can enter on candle 4.
3. We need to enter the trade as soon as the price moves below the candle 1 and 2's body and should not wait for the 3rd or 4th candle to close.
4. But for a more optimised entry I have added an option to use candle’s highs and lows instead of open and close. This reduces lot of noise and provides us with more precise entry. This setting is turned on by default.
5. I have restricted it to 4 candles and that is all that is needed. More than that is a longer sideways market.
6. I call it the -+- or RGR pattern or Red-Green-Red or Seller-Buyer-Seller or Buyer defeated or just Seller pattern.
7. Stop loss can be candle 2's mid for safe traders ( that includes me) or candle 2's body high for risky traders.
8. Back testing suggests that body high will be useless and result in more points in loss because for the bigger move this point will not be touched, so why not get out faster.
Combining Indicators and Signal
Combining these indicators with GRG/RGR signal can be very powerful and can provide big moves.
1. MA crossover and Signal - This is very powerful and provides a very big move. Trades can be held for longer. If after taking the trade we notice that the MA crossover has happened then trades can be held for higher targets.
2. Pivots and Signal - Pivots and add a support or resistance point. Take profits on these points. R5/S5 are over streched conditions so we can start looking for reversal signals and ignore other signals
3. Intraday Range - first 1, 5, 15 min of the day - Sideways days is when price will stay in these ranges. You can take profits at these ranges or if the range is broken and we get a signal, then it can mean that the direction will be sustained.
4. Previous Day/Week/Month Ranges - These can be used as Take Profit points if the price is moving towards them after getting the signal. If the range is broken and we get a signal then it can be a strong signal. They can also be used as reversal points if a strong signal is generated.
Important Settings
1. Include 4th Candle Confirmation - You can enable or disable the 4th candle signal to avoid the noise, but at times I have noticed that the 4th candle gives a very strong signal or I can say that the strong signal falls on the 4th candle. This is mostly a coincidence.
2. Bars to check (default 10) - You can also configure how many previous bars should the signal be generated for. 10 to 30 is good enough. To backtest increase it to 2000 or 5000 for example.
3. Use Candle High/Low for confirmation instead of Candle Open/Close - More optimized entry and noise reduction. This option is now defaulted to false.
4. Show Green-Red-Green (bull) signals - Show only bull entries. Useful when I have a predefined view i.e, I know market is going to go up today.
5. Show Red-Green-Red (bear) signals - Show only bear entries. Useful when I have a predefined view i.e, I know market is going to go down today.
6. 3rd candle should be a Strong candle before considering 4th candle - This will enforce additional logic in 4 candle setup that the 3rd candle is the candle in our direction of breakout. This means something like GRGG is mandatory, which is still the default behaviour. If disabled, the 3rd candle can be any candle and 4th candle will act as our breakout candle. This behaviour has led to breakouts and breakdowns as times, hence I added this as a separate feature. Vice-versa for a RGGR.
For a 4 candle setup till now we were expecting GRGG or RGRR but we can let the system ignore the 3rd candle completely if needed.
This will result in additional signals.
7. Three intraday ranges added for index and stock traders - 1 min, 5 min and 15 min ranges will be displayed. These are disabled by default except 15 min. These are very important ranges and in sideways days the price will usually move within the 15 min. A breakout of this range and a positive signal can be a very powerful setup.
Safe traders can avoid taking a trade in this range as it can lead to fakeouts.
The line style, width, color and opacity are configurable.
Pointers/Golden Rules
1. If after taking the trade, the next candle moves in your direction and closes strong bullish or bearish, then move SL to break even and after that you can trail it.
2. If a upside trade hits SL and immediately a down side trade signal is generated on the next candle then take it. Vice versa is true.
3. Trades need to be taken on previous 2 candle's body high or low combined and not the wicks.
4. The most losses a trader takes is on a sideways day and because in our strategy the stop loss is so small that even on a sideways day we'll get out with a little profit or worst break even.
5. Hold trades for longer targets and don't panic.
6. If last 3-4 days have been sideways then there is a good probability that today will be trending so we can hold our trade for longer targets. Inverse is true when the market has been trending for 2-3 days then volatility followed by sideways is coming (DOW theory). Target to hold the trade for whole day and not exit till the day closes.
7. In general avoid trading in the middle of the day for index and stocks. Divide the day into 3 parts and avoid the middle.
8. Use Support/Resistance, 10, 20, 50, 200 EMA/SMA, Gaps, Whole/Round numbers(very imp) for identifying targets.
9. Trail your SL.
10. For indexes I would use 5 min and 15 min timeframe and at times 10 mins.
11. For commodities and crypto we can use higher timeframe as well. Look for signals during volatile time durations and avoid trading the whole day. Signal usually gives good targets on those times.
12. If a GRG or RGR pattern appears on a daily timeframe then this is our time to go big.
13. Minimum Risk to Reward should be 1:2 and for longer targets can be 1:4 to 1:10.
14. Trade with small lot size. Money management will happen automatically.
15. With small lot size and correct Risk-Reward we can be very profitable. Don't trade with big lot size.
16. Stay in the market for longer and collect points not money.
17. Very imp - Watch market and learn to generate a market view.
18. Very imp - Only 3 type of candles are needed in trading -
Strong Bullish (Big Green candle), Strong Bearish (Big Red candle),
Hammer (it is Strong Bullish), Inverse Hammer (it is Strong Bearish)
and Doji (indecision or confusion).
If on daily timeframe I see Strong Bullish candle previous day then I am biased to the upside the next day, if I see Strong Bearish candle the previous day then I am biased to the downside the next day, if I see Doji on the previous day then I am cautious the next day, if there are back to back Dojis forming in daily or weekly then I am preparing for big move so time to go big once I get the signal.
19. Most Important Candlestick pattern - Bullish and Bearish Engulfing
20. The only Chart patterns I need -
a) Falling Wedge/Channel Bullish Pattern Uptrend or Bull Flag - Buying - Forming over a couple days for intraday and forming over a couple of weeks for swing
b) Falling Wedge/Channel Bullish Pattern Downtrend or Falling Channel - Buying
c) Rising Wedge Bearish Pattern Uptrend or Rising Channel - Selling
d) Rising Wedge Bearish Pattern Downtrend or Bear flag - Selling
e) Head and Shoulder - Over a longer period not for intraday. In 15 min takes few days and for swing 1hr or 4h or daily can take few days
f) M and W pattern - Reversal Patterns - They form within the above 4 patterns, usually resulting in the break of trend line
21. How Gaps work -
a) Small Gap up in Uptrend - Market can fill the gap and reverse. The perception is that people are buying. If previous day candle was Strong Bullish then market view is up.
b) Big Gap up in Uptrend - Not news driven - Profit booking will come but may not fill the entire gap
c) Big Gap up in Uptrend - News driven, war related, tax, interest rate - Market can keep going up without stopping.
c) Flat opening in Uptrend - Big chance of market going up. If previous day candle was Strong Bullish then view is upwards, if it was Doji then still upwards.
d) Gap down in Uptrend - Market is surprised. After going down initially it can go up
e) Small Gap down in Downtrend - Market can fill the gap and keep moving down. If previous day candle was Strong Bearish then view is still down.
f) Flat opening in Downtrend - View is down, short today.
g) Big Gap down in Downtrend - Profit booking and foolish buying will come but market view is still down.
h) Gap down with News - Volatility, sideways then down.
i) Gap Up in Downtrend - Can move up - Price can move up during 2/3rd of the day and End of the day revert and close in red.
22. Go big on bearish days for option traders. Puts are better bought and Calls are better sold.
23. Cluster of green signals can lead to bigger move on the upside and vice versa for red signals.
24. Most of this is what I learned from successful traders (from the top 2%) only the indicator is mine.
Session Breakout Detector (SBD)Overview:
The Session Breakout Detector (SBD) is a TradingView indicator designed to identify and visualize breakouts from major trading sessions. It tracks a selected session (Tokyo, London, or New York) and detects price movements beyond the session's high or low, assisting traders in spotting potential breakout opportunities.
Key Features:
- Session Selection: Choose between Tokyo, London, or New York sessions.
- Breakout Detection Modes:
- Confirmed Bar: Detects breakouts when a candle closes beyond the session's range.
- Intrabar: Detects breakouts as soon as the price exceeds the session's high or low within a
candle.
- Visual Indicators:
- Displays session high, low, and range with a colored box for clear visualization.
- Marks breakouts with green (bullish) or red (bearish) triangles.
- Optional 50-Period SMA: Adds a 50-period Simple Moving Average to the chart for trend
analysis.
- Alerts: Configurable alerts for bullish and bearish breakouts.
Usage Instructions:
1. Select Session: Choose the desired trading session (Tokyo, London, or New York) from the
input settings.
2. Choose Breakout Detection Mode: Select between 'By confirmed bar' or 'By intrabars' based
on your trading preference.
3. Enable SMA (Optional): Toggle the 'Use SMA?' option to display the 50-period Simple Moving
Average.
4. Set Alerts: Configure alerts for breakout signals as per your trading strategy.
⚠️Note: This indicator is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consider their individual risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
JW Clean Adaptive Channel//@version=5
indicator("JW Clean Adaptive Channel", overlay=true)
// Inputs
emaFast = input.int(20, "EMA Fast")
emaMid = input.int(50, "EMA Mid")
emaSlow = input.int(200, "EMA Slow")
atrLen = input.int(14, "ATR Length")
regLen = input.int(100, "Regression Window")
multATR = input.float(2.0, "Channel Width x ATR", step=0.1)
baseATR = input.int(50, "ATR Baseline")
volCap = input.float(2.5, "Max Vol Mult", step=0.1)
// EMAs
ema20 = ta.ema(close, emaFast)
ema50 = ta.ema(close, emaMid)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, emaSlow)
plot(ema20, "EMA 20", color=color.lime)
plot(ema50, "EMA 50", color=color.yellow)
plot(ema200, "EMA 200", color=color.orange, linewidth=2)
// Adaptive regression channel
atr = ta.atr(atrLen)
bAtr = ta.sma(atr, baseATR)
vRat = bAtr == 0.0 ? 1.0 : math.min(atr / bAtr, volCap)
width = atr * multATR * vRat
basis = ta.linreg(close, regLen, 0)
upper = basis + width
lower = basis - width
slope = basis - basis
chanColor = slope > 0 ? color.lime : slope < 0 ? color.red : color.gray
pU = plot(upper, "Upper", color=chanColor)
pL = plot(lower, "Lower", color=chanColor)
pB = plot(basis, "Basis", color=color.gray)
fill(pU, pL, color=color.new(chanColor, 85))
// Candle and background color
ribbonBull = ema20 > ema50 and ema50 > ema200
ribbonBear = ema20 < ema50 and ema50 < ema200
barcolor(ribbonBull ? color.lime : ribbonBear ? color.red : na)
bgcolor(slope > 0 ? color.new(color.green, 85) : slope < 0 ? color.new(color.red, 85) : na)
// MACD buy/sell markers
= ta.macd(close, 12, 26, 9)
buySig = ta.crossover(macdLine, sigLine) and slope > 0
sellSig = ta.crossunder(macdLine, sigLine) and slope < 0
plotshape(buySig, title="Buy", style=shape.triangleup, color=color.lime, location=location.belowbar, size=size.tiny)
plotshape(sellSig, title="Sell", style=shape.triangledown, color=color.red, location=location.abovebar, size=size.tiny)
// Trend strength label (single-line calls; no dangling commas)
strength = slope * vRat * 1000.0
string tText = "Sideways"
color tCol = color.gray
if strength > 2
tText := "Strong Uptrend"
tCol := color.lime
else if strength > 0.5
tText := "Weak Uptrend"
tCol := color.new(color.lime, 40)
else if strength < -2
tText := "Strong Downtrend"
tCol := color.red
else if strength < -0.5
tText := "Weak Downtrend"
tCol := color.new(color.red, 40)
var label tLbl = na
if barstate.islast
if not na(tLbl)
label.delete(tLbl)
tLbl := label.new(x=bar_index, y=high, text=tText, style=label.style_label_right, textcolor=color.white, color=tCol, size=size.normal, yloc=yloc.price)
// 10-day breakout alerts
hi10 = ta.highest(high, 10)
lo10 = ta.lowest(low, 10)
alertcondition(close > hi10, title="10-Day High Break", message="{{ticker}} 10D HIGH @ {{close}}")
alertcondition(close < lo10, title="10-Day Low Break", message="{{ticker}} 10D LOW @ {{close}}")
alertcondition(buySig, title="Buy Alert", message="BUY {{ticker}} @ {{close}}")
alertcondition(sellSig, title="Sell Alert", message="SELL {{ticker}} @ {{close}}")
15-Min RSI Scalper [SwissAlgo]15-Min RSI Scalper
Tracks RSI Momentum Loss and Gain to Generate Signals
-------------------------------------------------------
WHAT THIS INDICATOR CALCULATES
This indicator attempts to identify RSI directional changes (RSI momentum) using a step-by-step "ladder" method. It reads RSI(14) from the next higher timeframe relative to your chart. On a 15-minute chart, it uses 1-hour RSI. On a 5-minute chart, it uses 15-minute RSI, and so on.
How the ladder logic works:
The indicator doesn't track RSI all the time. It only starts tracking when RSI crosses into potentially extreme territory (these are called "events" in the code):
For sell signals : when RSI crosses above a dynamic upper threshold (typically between 60-80, calculated as the 90th percentile of recent RSI)
For buy signals : when RSI crosses below a dynamic lower threshold (typically between 20-40, calculated as the 10th percentile of recent RSI)
Once tracking begins, RSI movement is divided into 2-point steps (boxes). The indicator counts how many boxes RSI climbs or falls.
A signal generates only when:
RSI reverses direction by at least 2 boxes (4 RSI points) from its extreme
RSI holds that reversal for 3 consecutive confirmed bars
Example: Dynamic threshold is at 68. RSI crosses above 68 → tracking starts. RSI climbs to 76 (4 boxes up). Then it drops back to 72 and stays below that level for 3 bars → sell signal prints. The buy signal works the same way in reverse.
-------------------------------------------------------
SIGNAL GENERATION METHODOLOGY
Sell Signal (Red Triangle)
RSI crosses above a dynamic start level (calculated as the 90th percentile of the last 1000 bars, constrained between 60-80)
Indicator tracks upward progression in 2-point boxes
RSI reverses and drops below a boundary 2 boxes below the highest box reached
RSI remains below that boundary for 3 confirmed bars
Red triangle plots above price
Reset condition: RSI returns below 50
Buy Signal (Green Triangle)
RSI crosses below a dynamic start level (10th percentile of last 1000 bars, constrained between 20-40)
Indicator tracks downward progression in 2-point boxes
RSI reverses and rises above a boundary 2 boxes above the lowest box reached
RSI remains above that boundary for 3 confirmed bars
Green triangle plots below price
Reset condition: RSI returns above 50
-------------------------------------------------------
TECHNICAL PARAMETERS
All parameters are hardcoded:
RSI Period: 14
Box Size: 2 RSI points
Reversal Threshold: 2 boxes (4 RSI points)
Confirmation Period: 3 bars
Reset Level: RSI 50
Sell Start Range: 60-80 (dynamic)
Buy Start Range: 20-40 (dynamic)
Lookback for Percentile: 1000 bars
Note: Since the code is open source, users can modify these hardcoded values directly in the script to adjust sensitivity. For example, increasing the confirmation period from 3 to 5 bars will produce fewer but more conservative signals. Decreasing the box size from 2 to 1 will make the indicator more responsive to smaller RSI movements.
-------------------------------------------------------
KEY FEATURES
Automatic Higher Timeframe RSI
When applied to a 15-minute chart, the indicator automatically reads 1-hour RSI data. This is the next standard timeframe above 15 minutes in the indicator's logic.
Dynamic Adaptive Start Levels
Sell signals use the 90th percentile of RSI over the last 1000 bars, constrained between 60-80. Buy signals use the 10th percentile, constrained between 20-40. These thresholds recalculate on each bar based on recent data.
Ladder Box System
RSI movements are tracked in 2-point boxes. The indicator requires a 2-box reversal followed by 3 consecutive bars maintaining that reversal before generating a signal.
Dual Signal Output
Red down-triangles plot above price when the sell signal conditions are met. Green up-triangles plot below the price when buy signal conditions are met.
-------------------------------------------------------
REPAINTING
This indicator does not repaint. All calculations use "barstate.isconfirmed" to ensure signals appear only on closed bars. The request.security() call uses lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off to prevent forward-looking bias.
-------------------------------------------------------
INTENDED CHART TIMEFRAME
This indicator is designed for use on 15-minute charts. The visual reminder table at the top of the chart indicates this requirement.
On a 15-minute chart:
RSI data comes from the 1-hour timeframe
Signals reflect 1-hour momentum shifts
3-bar confirmation equals 45 minutes of price action
Using it on other timeframes will change the higher timeframe RSI source and may produce different behavior.
-------------------------------------------------------
WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES NOT DO
Does not predict future price movements
Does not provide entry or exit advice
Does not guarantee profitable trades
Does not replace comprehensive technical analysis
Does not account for fundamental factors, news events, or market structure
Does not adapt to all market conditions equally
-------------------------------------------------------
EDUCATIONAL USE
This indicator demonstrates one approach to momentum reversal detection using:
Multi-timeframe analysis
Adaptive thresholds via percentile calculation
Step-wise momentum tracking
Multi-bar confirmation logic
It is designed as a technical study, not a trading system. Signals represent calculated conditions based on RSI behavior, not trade recommendations. Always do your own analysis before taking market positions.
-------------------------------------------------------
RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This indicator:
Is for educational and informational purposes only
Does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice
Should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions
Has not been tested across all market conditions
May produce false signals, late signals, or no signals in certain conditions
Past performance of any indicator does not predict future results. Users must conduct their own analysis and risk assessment before making trading decisions. Always use proper risk management, including stop losses and position sizing appropriate to your account and risk tolerance.
MIT LICENSE
This code is open source and provided as-is without warranties of any kind. You may use, modify, and distribute it freely under the MIT License.
BTC 5-MA Multi Cross Strategy By Hardik Prajapati Ai TradelabThis strategy is built around the five most powerful and commonly used moving averages in crypto trading — 5, 20, 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) — applied on a 1-hour Bitcoin chart.
Core Idea:
The strategy aims to identify strong bullish trends by confirming when the price action crosses above all key moving averages. This alignment of multiple MAs indicates momentum shift and helps filter out false breakouts.
⸻
⚙️ How It Works:
1. Calculates 5 Moving Averages:
• 5 MA → Short-term momentum (fastest signal)
• 20 MA → Near-term trend confirmation
• 50 MA → Mid-term trend filter
• 100 MA → Long-term trend foundation
• 200 MA → Macro-trend direction (strongest support/resistance)
2. Buy Condition (Entry):
• A Buy is triggered when:
• The price crosses above the 5 MA, and
• The closing price remains above all other MAs (20, 50, 100, 200)
This signals that momentum is aligned across all time horizons — a strong uptrend confirmation.
3. Sell Condition (Exit):
• The position is closed when price crosses below the 20 MA, showing weakness in short-term momentum.
4. Visual Signals:
• 🟢 BUY triangle below candles → Entry signal
• 🔴 SELL triangle above candles → Exit signal
• Colored MAs plotted for trend clarity.
⸻
📈 Recommended Usage:
• Chart: BTC/USDT
• Timeframe: 1 Hour
• Type: Trend-following crossover strategy
• Ideal for: Identifying major breakout moves and confirming trend reversals.
⸻
⚠️ Notes:
• This script is meant for educational and backtesting purposes only.
• Always apply additional confirmation tools (like RSI, Volume, or VIX-style filters) before live trading.
• Works best during trending markets; may produce whipsaws in sideways zones.
Total Info Indicator (Public)# Total Info Indicator (TII)
A one-stop TradingView dashboard that overlays key market info on your chart and (optionally) prints **breakout warnings/confirmations** and **Smart SELL** signals. It shows MAs, ATR & stop-loss, RSI/CCI, earnings countdown, and a volume block that compares **today’s volume (so far)** vs a **20-day daily average (excluding today)**.
---
## Features
- **Overlay Dashboard (watermark table)**
- **Name & Market Cap**, **Ticker & Timeframe**, **Sector/Industry**
- **ATR (14)** and **ATR%** with traffic-light emoji
- **MA status** (Above/Below for 20/50/150/200)
- **Stop-loss** value + risk emoji
- **Earnings**: days remaining (if data available)
- **RSI (14)** + trend arrow; **CCI (14)** with interpretation
- **Volume** block:
- `Volume Avg (N)` = **daily** SMA(N) **excluding today**
- `Current Volume` = **today-so-far** (intraday cumulative)
- `Volume change %` vs avg + emoji
- `Volume speed` = today’s **pace** vs the average daily pace
- **On-Chart Visuals**
- **MAs**: 20 / 50 / 150 / 200 (toggle individually)
- **Stop-loss label** at `close − ATR × multiplier` (or Auto from last 3 bars)
- **Pivot price labels** at confirmed swing highs/lows
- **Signals (optional)**
- **Predictive Breakout Warnings** (yellow ⚡) — early hints near S/R
- **Confirmed Breakouts** — green “BUY”/red “SELL”; 🔥 marks very high volume
- **Smart SELL** set — small triangles for:
- RSI **overbought** fade
- **Bearish RSI divergence**
- **EMA-cross** with volume filter
- Thin **EMA** line when Smart SELL is enabled (reference for the cross)
---
## Installation
1. Open **TradingView** → **Pine Editor**.
2. Paste your TII script.
3. Click **Save** → **Add to chart**.
4. If the table doesn’t show, ensure `overlay = true` (already set) and you’re on a symbol with data.
---
## Quick Start (2 minutes)
1. Open **Inputs**.
2. **Volume session alignment**:
- If your chart shows **Extended Hours**, turn **Include Extended Hours** **ON**.
- If not, leave it **OFF** (uses the symbol’s regular session).
3. Pick the **MAs** you want and set **ATR thresholds** & **Stop-loss** style (**Auto** or anchored day).
4. (Optional) Enable **Breakout Detection** and/or **Smart SELLs**.
5. Use the table to read:
- Volatility (ATR row), Position (MA row), Risk (Stop row), Momentum (RSI/CCI),
- Volume vs average & pace,
- **Trend summary** at the bottom.
---
## Volume Logic (important)
- **Today’s volume (intraday)** = **sum of intraday bars since session start**.
Reset uses:
- `syminfo.session` when **Include Extended Hours = OFF** (regular trading hours), or
- **00:00–23:59** when **ON** (includes pre/post).
- **Average volume** = **daily SMA(N)** with **today excluded** (prevents intraday skew).
- **Volume speed** assumes **US RTH 09:30–16:00 (America/New_York)**.
Adjust in code if you trade other sessions.
> **Tip:** To match the built-in Volume pane, mirror your chart’s **Extended Hours** setting with the indicator’s **Include Extended Hours** toggle.
---
## Inputs Overview
### Table Visualization
- **Location** (Top/Middle/Bottom × Left/Center/Right)
- **Text color & size**
### General Information
- **Symbol & TF**, **Company Name**, **Industry & Sector**, **Market Cap**
- **Show Days Until Earnings**, **Show Earnings Info**
### Moving Average Position
- Toggle **MA 20 / 50 / 150 / 200** (on-chart lines + table status)
### ATR Indication
- Show **ATR (14)** & percent
- **Red/Yellow thresholds** → 🟢/🟡/🔴 ATR emoji
### Stop-Loss
- **Source**: Today / Yesterday / 2 Days Ago / **Auto** (tightest of last 3 ATR anchors)
- **ATR Multiplier**: widen/tighten stops
### Volume
- **Include Extended Hours**: defines day reset & matching with chart
- **Lookback (days)**: N for daily average (today excluded)
### Trend Calculation
- Weights for **MA**, **RSI**, **Volume** (default 0.6 / 0.3 / 0.1)
- Total ≥ **0.6** ⇒ **📈 Uptrend 🟢**; otherwise **Downtrend 🔴**
### Pivot High/Low Labels
- **pivotStrength**: larger = stronger swings; confirms later
### Breakout Detection (optional)
- **S/R Length** (window), **Volume Multiplier** vs vol SMA20
- Filters: **Use Volume**, **Use RSI**, **Use Trend**, **Use Retest**
- **Min Breakout %**, **Min Candle Body %**
### Smart SELL Signals (optional)
- **RSI Overbought** level
- **RSI Divergence** lookback
- **EMA Cross** length (with volume > avg filter)
---
## Reading Emojis at a Glance
- **ATR**: 🟢 calm • 🟡 medium • 🔴 high volatility
- **MA status**: “Above … 🟢 / Below … 🔴”
- **Stop-loss** row: 🟢 safer distance • 🟡 moderate • 🔴 tight/at risk
- **Volume**: 🔴 below avg • 🟡 ≈ avg • 🟢 above avg
- **Trend**: “📈 Uptrend 🟢” or “Downtrend 🔴”
Multi-Timeframe MACD with Color Mix (Nikko)Multi-Timeframe MACD with Color Mix (Nikko) Indicator
This documentation explains the benefits of the "Multi-Timeframe MACD with Color Mix (Nikko)" indicator for traders and provides easy-to-follow steps on how to use it. Written as of 05:06 AM +07 on Saturday, October 04, 2025, this guide focuses on helping you, as a trader, get the most out of this tool with clear, practical advice before diving into the technical details.
Benefits for Traders
1. Multi-Timeframe Insight
This indicator lets you see momentum trends across 15-minute, 1-hour, 1-day, and 1-week timeframes all on one chart. This big-picture view helps you catch both quick market moves and long-term trends without flipping between charts, saving you time and giving you a fuller understanding of the market.
2. Visual Momentum Representation
The background changes from red to green based on short-term (15m) momentum, giving you a quick, easy-to-see signal—red means bearish (prices might drop), and green means bullish (prices might rise). The histogram uses a mix of red, green, and blue colors to show the combined strength of the 1-hour, 1-day, and 1-week timeframes, helping you spot strong trends at a glance (e.g., a bright mix for strong momentum, darker for weaker).
3. Enhanced Decision-Making
The background and histogram colors work together to confirm trends across different timeframes, making it less likely you’ll act on a false signal. This helps you feel more confident when deciding when to buy, sell, or hold.
4. Proactive Alert System
You can set alerts to notify you when the percentage of bullish timeframes hits your chosen levels (e.g., below 10% for bearish, above 90% for bullish). This keeps you in the loop on big momentum shifts without needing to watch the chart all day—perfect for when you’re busy.
5. Flexibility and Efficiency
You can turn timeframes on or off, adjust settings like speed of the moving averages, and tweak transparency to fit your trading style—whether you’re a fast scalper or a patient swing trader. Everything is shown on one chart, saving you effort, and the colors make it simple to read, even if you’re new to trading.
How to Use It
Getting Started
Add the Indicator: Load the "Multi-Timeframe MACD with Color Mix (Nikko)" onto your TradingView chart using the Pine Script editor or indicator library.
Pick Your Timeframes: Turn on the timeframes that match your trading—use 15m and 1h for quick trades, or 1d and 1w for longer holds—using the enable_15m, enable_1h, enable_1d, enable_1w, and enable_background options.
Reading the Colors
Background Gradient: Watch for red to signal bearish 15m momentum and green for bullish momentum. Adjust the Background_transparency (default 75%, or 25% opacity) if the chart feels too busy—try lowering it to 50 for clearer candlesticks in fast markets.
Histogram and EMA Colors:
The histogram and its Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line show a mix of red (1-week), green (1-day), and blue (1-hour) based on how strong the momentum is in each timeframe.
Brighter colors mean stronger momentum—white (all bright) shows all timeframes are pushing up hard, while darker shades (like gray or black) mean weaker or mixed momentum.
Turn off a timeframe (e.g., enable_1h = false) to see how it changes the color mix and focus on what matters to you.
Setting Alerts
Set Your Levels: Choose a threshold_low (default 10%) and threshold_high (default 90%) based on your comfort zone or past market patterns to catch big turns.
Get Notifications: Use TradingView alerts to get pings when the market hits your set levels, so you can act without staring at the screen.
Practical Tips
Pair with Other Tools: Use it with support/resistance lines or the RSI to double-check your moves and build a solid plan.
Tweak Settings: Adjust fast_length, slow_length, and signal_smoothing to match your asset’s speed, and bump up the lookback (default 50) for steadier trends in wild markets.
Practice First: Test different timeframe combos on a demo account to find what works best for you.
Understanding the Colors (Simple Explanation)
How Colors Work
The histogram and its EMA line use a color mix based on a simple idea from color theory, like mixing paints with red, green, and blue (RGB):
Red comes from the 1-week timeframe, green from 1-day, and blue from 1-hour.
When all three timeframes show strong upward momentum, they blend into bright white—the brightest color, like a super-bright light telling you the market’s roaring up.
If some timeframes are weak or pulling down, the mix gets darker (like gray or black), warning you the momentum might not be solid.
Brighter is Better
Bright Colors = Strong Opportunity: The brighter the histogram and EMA (closer to white), the more all your chosen timeframes are in agreement that prices are rising. This is your signal to think about buying or holding, as it points to a powerful trend you can ride.
Dark Colors = Caution: A darker mix (toward black) means some timeframes are lagging or bearish, suggesting you might wait or consider selling. It’s like a dim light saying, “Hold on, check again.”
Benefit in Practice: Watching the brightness helps you jump on the best trades fast. For example, a bright white histogram on a green background is like a green traffic light—go for it! A dark gray on red is like a red light—pause and rethink. This quick color check can save you from bad moves and boost your profits when the trend is strong.
Why It Helps
These colors are your fast friend in trading. A bright histogram means all your timeframes are cheering for an uptrend, giving you the confidence to act. A dull one tells you to be careful, helping you avoid traps. It’s like having a color-coded guide to pick the hottest market moments!
Technical Details
Input Parameters
Fast Length (default: 12): Short-term moving average speed.
Slow Length (default: 26): Long-term moving average speed.
Source (default: close): Price data used.
Signal Smoothing (default: 9): Smooths the signal line.
MA Type (default: EMA): Choose EMA or SMA.
Timeframe and Scaling
Timeframes: 15m, 1h, 1d, 1w, with on/off switches.
Lookback Period (default: 50): Sets the data window for trends.
Background Transparency (default: 75%): Controls background see-through level.
MACD Calculation
Per Timeframe: Uses request.security():
MACD Line: ta.ema(src, fast_length) - ta.ema(src, slow_length).
Signal Line: ta.ema(MACD, signal_length).
Histogram: (macd - signal) / 3.0.
Background Gradient
15m Normalization: norm_value = (hist_15m - hist_15m_min) / max(hist_15m_range, 1e-10), limited to 0-1.
RGB Mix: Red drops from 255 to 0, green rises from 0 to 255, blue stays 0.
Apply: color.new(color.rgb(r_val, g_val, b_val), Background_transparency).
Histogram and EMA Colors
Color Assignment:
1h: Blue (#0000FF) if hist_1h >= 0, else black.
1d: Green (#00FF00) if hist_1d >= 0, else black.
1w: Red (#FF0000) if hist_1w >= 0, else black.
Final Color: final_color = color.rgb(min(r, 255), min(g, 255), min(b, 255)).
Plotting: Histogram and EMA use final_color; MACD (#2962FF), signal (#FF6D00).
Alerts
Bullish Percentage: bullish_pct = (bullish_count / bullish_total) * 100, counting hist >= 0.
Triggers: Below threshold_low or above threshold_high.
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Conclusion
The "Multi-Timeframe MACD with Color Mix (Nikko)" is your all-in-one tool to spot trends, confirm moves, and trade smarter with its bright, easy-to-read colors. By using it wisely, you can sharpen your market edge and trade with more confidence.
This README is tailored for traders and reflects the indicator's practical value as of 05:06 AM +07 on October 04, 2025.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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