Crude Oil Time + Fix Catalyst StrategyHybrid Workflow: Event-Driven Macro + Market DNA Micro
1. Macro Catalyst Layer (Your Overlays)
Event Mapping: Fed decisions, LBMA fixes, EIA releases, OPEC+ meetings.
Regime Filters: Risk-on/off, volatility regimes, macro bias (hawkish/dovish).
Volatility Scaling: ATR-based position sizing, adaptive overlays for London/NY sessions.
Governance: Max trades/day, cool-down logic, session boundaries.
👉 This layer answers when and why to engage.
2. Micro Execution Layer (Market DNA)
Order Flow Confirmation: Tape reading (Level II, time & sales, bid/ask).
Liquidity Zones: Identify support/resistance pools where buyers/sellers cluster.
Imbalance Detection: Aggressive buyers/sellers overwhelming the other side.
Precision Entry: Only trigger trades when order flow confirms macro catalyst bias.
Risk Discipline: Tight stops beyond liquidity zones, conviction-based scaling.
👉 This layer answers how and where to engage.
3. Unified Playbook
Step Macro Overlay (Your Edge) Market DNA (Jay’s Edge) Result
Event Trigger Fed/LBMA/OPEC+ catalyst flagged — Volatility window opens
Bias Filter Hawkish/dovish regime filter — Directional bias set
Sizing ATR volatility scaling — Position size calibrated
Execution — Tape confirms liquidity imbalance Precision entry
Risk Control Governance rules (cool-down, max trades) Tight stops beyond liquidity zones Disciplined exits
4. Gold & Silver Use Case
Gold (Fed Day):
Overlay flags volatility window → bias hawkish.
Market DNA shows sellers hitting bids at resistance.
Enter short with volatility-scaled size, stop just above liquidity zone.
Silver (LBMA Fix):
Overlay highlights fix window → bias neutral.
Market DNA shows buyers stepping in at support.
Enter long with adaptive size, HUD displays risk metrics.
5. HUD Integration
Macro Dashboard: Catalyst timeline, regime filter status, volatility bands.
Micro Dashboard: Live tape imbalance meter, liquidity zone map, conviction score.
Unified View: Macro tells you when to look, micro tells you when to pull the trigger.
⚡ This hybrid workflow gives you macro awareness + micro precision. Your overlays act as the radar, Jay’s Market DNA acts as the laser scope. Together, they create a disciplined, event-aware, volatility-scaled playbook for gold and silver.
Antonio — do you want me to draft this into a compile-safe Pine Script v6 template that embeds the macro overlay logic, while leaving hooks for Market DNA-style execution (order flow confirmation)? That way you’d have a production-ready skeleton to extend across TradingView, TradeStation, and NinjaTrader.
Antonio — do you want me to draft this into a compile-safe Pine Script v6 template that embeds the macro overlay logic, while leaving hooks for Market DNA-style execution (order flow confirmation)? That way you’d have a production-ready skeleton to extend across TradingView, TradeStation, and NinjaTrader.
在腳本中搜尋"如何用wind搜索股票的发行价和份数"
Quantura - Trendchange ZonesIntroduction
“Quantura – Trendchange Zones” is an advanced technical indicator that identifies and visualizes potential market reversal zones using dynamic RSI-based logic. It highlights areas of overbought and oversold conditions, marking them as visual zones directly on the price chart, and generates corresponding bullish and bearish signals when the RSI exits these extremes. The tool helps traders anticipate possible trend change regions and confirm momentum shifts in a clean, intuitive way.
Originality & Value
Unlike traditional RSI indicators that only show a static oscillator, this tool transforms RSI behavior into on-chart visual zones that represent structural overbought and oversold phases. It converts RSI threshold breaches into price-based regions (boxes) and marks reversal signals at the moment of momentum change.
The indicator’s originality and usefulness come from its:
Direct visualization of RSI overbought and oversold areas as dynamic chart zones.
Automatic detection of potential reversal regions where momentum exhaustion is likely.
Integration of RSI-based signals and visual cues without requiring users to monitor the RSI window.
Adjustable sensitivity for RSI length and upper/lower levels.
Clear color-coded separation of bullish and bearish phases.
Functionality & Core Logic
The indicator continuously monitors RSI values relative to the user-defined thresholds.
When RSI moves above the upper level, an Overbought Zone is created and extends until RSI falls back below that threshold.
When RSI moves below the lower level, an Oversold Zone is generated and extends until RSI returns above that level.
When RSI exits one of these zones, a corresponding Trendchange Signal (▲ bullish or ▼ bearish) appears at the transition point.
Each zone dynamically adjusts its high and low levels during formation, representing the complete range of the exhaustion phase.
Parameters & Customization
RSI Length: Defines the sensitivity of RSI calculation. Shorter lengths make signals more responsive; longer lengths filter noise.
Upper Level / Lower Level: Set thresholds for overbought and oversold conditions (default 70 / 30).
Signals: Toggle on/off for displaying bullish (▲) and bearish (▼) reversal signals.
Zones: Toggle the visualization of shaded RSI-based zones.
Colors: Fully customizable bullish and bearish colors for both signals and zones.
Visualization & Display
Bullish reversal zones (oversold exits) are shaded using the chosen bullish color (default: blue).
Bearish reversal zones (overbought exits) are shaded using the chosen bearish color (default: red).
Each completed zone is outlined and filled with transparent shading for better clarity.
Reversal arrows (▲ for bullish, ▼ for bearish) are displayed at the bar where RSI exits the extreme level.
Clean overlay design ensures compatibility with any chart style or color scheme.
Use Cases
Identify overbought and oversold periods directly on the price chart without switching to the RSI window.
Anticipate potential market reversals or exhaustion points based on RSI momentum shifts.
Combine with trend indicators, moving averages, or volume tools for confirmation.
Apply across multiple timeframes to align short-term reversal signals with higher timeframe momentum.
Use zone width and duration to assess the strength and persistence of overbought/oversold conditions.
Limitations & Recommendations
The indicator is not a standalone trading system but a visual confirmation tool.
False signals may occur in strongly trending markets where RSI remains overextended.
Optimal RSI settings may differ between assets (e.g., crypto vs. equities).
Combining this indicator with additional trend or structure filters can enhance accuracy.
Markets & Timeframes
The “Quantura – Trendchange Zones” indicator works across all markets and timeframes, including cryptocurrencies, Forex, stocks, and commodities. It is suitable for both short-term scalping and long-term swing analysis.
Author & Access
Developed 100% by Quantura. Published as a Open-source script indicator. Access is free.
Important
This description complies with TradingView’s Script Publishing and House Rules. It provides a clear explanation of the indicator’s originality, logic, and function while avoiding unrealistic performance or predictive claims.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Swing AURORA v4.0 — Refined Trend Signals### Swing Algo v4.0 — Refined Trend Signals
#### Overview
Swing Algo v4.0 is an advanced technical indicator designed for TradingView, built to detect trend changes and provide actionable buy/sell signals in various market conditions. It combines multiple technical elements like moving averages, ADX for trend strength, Stochastic RSI for timing, and RSI divergence for confirmation, all while adapting to different timeframes through auto-tuning. This indicator overlays on your chart, highlighting trend regimes with background colors, displaying buy/sell labels (including "strong" variants), and offering early "potential" signals for proactive trading decisions. It's suitable for swing trading, trend following, or as a filter for other strategies across forex, stocks, crypto, and other assets.
#### Purpose
The primary goal of Swing Algo v4.0 is to help traders identify high-probability trend reversals and continuations early, reducing noise and false signals. It aims to provide clear, non-repainting signals that align with market structure, volatility, and momentum. By incorporating filters like higher timeframe (HTF) alignment, bias EMAs, and divergence, it refines entries for better accuracy. The indicator emphasizes balanced performance across aggressive, balanced, and conservative modes, making it versatile for both novice and experienced traders seeking to optimize their decision-making process.
#### What It Indicates
- **Trend Regimes (Background Coloring)**: The chart background changes color to reflect the current market regime:
- **Green (Intense for strong uptrends, faded when cooling)**: Indicates bullish trends where price is above the baseline and EMAs are aligned upward.
- **Red/Maroon (Intense maroon for strong downtrends, faded red when cooling)**: Signals bearish trends with price below the baseline and downward EMA alignment.
- **Faded Yellow**: Marks "no-trade" zones or potential trend changes, where conditions are choppy, weak, or neutral (e.g., low ADX, near baseline, or low volatility).
- **Buy/Sell Signals**: Labels appear on the chart for confirmed entries:
- "BUY" or "STRONG BUY" for bullish signals (strong variants require higher scores and optional divergence).
- "SELL" or "STRONG SELL" for bearish signals.
- **Potential Signals**: Early warnings like "Potential BUY" or "Potential SELL" appear before full confirmation, allowing traders to anticipate moves (confirmed after a few bars based on the trigger window).
- **Divergence Marks**: Small "DIV↑" (bullish) or "DIV↓" (bearish) labels highlight RSI divergences on pivots, adding confluence for strong signals.
- **Lines**: Optional plots for baseline (teal), EMA13/21 (lime/red based on crossover), providing visual trend context.
Signals are anchored either to the current bar or confirmed pivots, ensuring alignment with price action. The indicator avoids repainting by confirming on close if enabled.
#### Key Parameters and Customization
Swing Algo v4.0 offers minimal yet efficient parameters for fine-tuning, with defaults optimized for common use cases. Most can be auto-tuned based on timeframe for simplicity:
- **Confirm on Close (no repaint)**: Boolean (default: true) – Ensures signals don't repaint by waiting for bar confirmation.
- **Auto-tune by Timeframe**: Boolean (default: true) – Automatically adjusts lengths and sensitivity for 5-15m, 30-60m, 2-4h, or higher frames.
- **Mode**: String (options: Aggressive, Balanced , Conservative) – Controls signal thresholds; Aggressive for more signals, Conservative for fewer but higher-quality ones.
- **Signal Anchor**: String (options: Pivot (divLB) , Current bar) – Places labels on confirmed pivots or the current bar.
- **Trigger Window (bars)**: Integer (default: 3) – Window for signal timing; auto-tuned if enabled.
- **Baseline Type**: String (options: HMA , EMA, ALMA) – Core trend line; lengths auto-tune (e.g., 55 for short frames).
- **Use Bias EMA Filter**: Boolean (default: false) – Adds a long-term EMA for trend bias.
- **Use HTF Filter**: Boolean (default: false) – Aligns with higher timeframe (auto or manual like 60m, 240m, D); override for stricter scoring.
- **Sensitivity (10–90)**: Integer (default: 55) – Adjusts ADX threshold for trend detection; higher = more sensitive.
- **Use RSI-Stoch Trigger**: Boolean (default: true) – Enables Stochastic RSI for entry timing; customizable lengths, smooths, and levels.
- **Use RSI Divergence for STRONG**: Boolean (default: true) – Requires divergence for strong signals; pivot lookback (default: 5).
- **Visual Options**: Booleans for background regime, labels, divergence marks, and lines (all default: true).
These parameters are grouped for ease, with tooltips in TradingView for quick reference. Start with defaults and tweak based on backtesting.
#### How It Works
At its core, Swing Algo v4.0 calculates a baseline (e.g., HMA) to define the trend direction. It then scores potential buys/sells using factors like:
- **Trend Strength**: ADX above a dynamic threshold, combined with EMA crossovers (13/21) and slope analysis.
- **Volatility/Volume**: Bollinger/Keltner squeeze exits, volume z-score, and ATR filters to avoid choppy markets.
- **Timing**: Stochastic RSI crossovers or micro-timing via DEMA/TEMA for precise entries.
- **Filters**: Bias EMA, HTF alignment, gap from baseline, and no-trade zones (weak ADX, near baseline, low vol).
- **Divergence**: RSI pivots confirm strong signals.
- **Scoring**: Buy/sell scores (min 3-5 based on mode) trigger labels only when all gates pass, with early "potential" detection for foresight.
The algorithm processes these in real-time, auto-adapting to timeframe for efficiency. Signals flip only on direction changes to prevent over-trading. For best results, use on liquid assets and combine with risk management.
#### Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. Trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always backtest the indicator on your preferred assets and timeframes, and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no liability for any losses incurred from using this script. Use at your own risk.
GpPa - Φ Frames (V5.0.1)# GpPa — Φ Frames (V5.0.1)
**What it does**
This tool overlays nine “Phi Frames” on your chart. Each frame builds a dynamic price **box** from the **highest high** and **lowest low** over a user-defined lookback on a fixed timeframe. The boxes help you read structure, extremes, and balance zones across multiple scales in one view. No signals are generated.
**How it works (simple)**
* For every frame, the script requests data at a fixed resolution (e.g., 1D, 610m, 233m, 89m, etc.).
* It scans the last *N* bars at that resolution (your input).
* It draws a box from the start of that window to the current time, bounded by the window’s high and low.
* Optional “Re-Analysis Zone” guides project a vertical line into the future at a user-set offset, giving you a planning marker.
**Frames included**
* **M1** – 1D resolution (default length 258 bars)
* **M2** – 1D resolution (default length 160 bars)
* **M3** – 610-minute resolution (default length 233 bars)
* **M4** – 233-minute resolution (default length 377 bars)
* **M5** – 89-minute resolution (default length 610 bars)
* **M6** – 34-minute resolution (default length 987 bars)
* **M7** – 13-minute resolution (default length 1597 bars)
* **M8** – 5-minute resolution (default length 2584 bars)
* **M9** – 2-minute resolution (default length 4181 bars)
These durations follow a Fibonacci/Φ scheme. Using multiple frames together reveals confluence and nested ranges.
**Inputs & customization**
* **Per-frame controls:**
* *Length (bars)* — lookback window at the frame’s resolution.
* *Show/Hide* — toggle a frame on or off.
* *Color* — box border color.
* **Re-Analysis Zone (M4, M5, M6):**
* *Offset (bars)* — projects a future reference time from the right edge of the box.
* *Show/Hide* and *Color.*
* The line spans slightly above and below the box (+/-10% of its height) for visibility.
**Tips**
* Start with 2–3 frames to reduce clutter. Add more as needed.
* On lower chart resolutions, higher-timeframe boxes will “step” at their own closes.
* Use frames as context for your own entries, risk, and targets.
* Colors are semi-transparent by design so overlaps remain readable.
**Behavior & notes**
* Boxes update intrabar; values settle when the source timeframe closes.
* No alerts, signals, or strategy logic are included.
* Works on any symbol and timeframe.
* Overlay: **true**.
**Disclaimer**
This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.
**Credits**
Pine Script™ v6. © thewayofrichie.
Adaptive Z-Momentum (AZM) [Blk0ut]Adaptive Z-Momentum (AZM) is a momentum indicator that expresses the normalized deviation of price from a dynamic anchor (VWAP or EMA) in standard-score (z-score) terms, with adaptive “extreme” thresholds, trend sensitivity, and optional regime filtering. The line color, background shading, and labels help you visually discern when momentum is mild, building, or overextended.
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## Features & Concept
* Computes **z = (price – anchor) / σ**, where the anchor is either Session VWAP (intraday) or EMA (non-intraday).
* Uses exponential moving averages (EWMA) to adaptively estimate the running mean and variance, making the indicator responsive to regime changes.
* Defines an **adaptive extreme threshold** (±z threshold) based on the chosen percentile of |z| over a lookback window (e.g. 90th percentile) — dynamically adjusting to volatility environment.
* Colors the main z-line **differently when inside vs. outside the extreme thresholds**, giving immediate visual feedback.
* Optionally shades the background when momentum is over the extremes (bullish or bearish).
* Supports a **self-tuning mode** (ADX-aware) that tightens or relaxes lookback/smoothing in strong trend vs. chop regimes.
* Regime filtering options (EMA slope or ADX threshold) let you filter signals in trend vs. non-trend markets.
* Plots Δz (the change in z) in various styles to help detect acceleration or deceleration in momentum.
* Adds optional thrust/fade labels to highlight when z crosses ±extreme zones, or when momentum stalls.
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## How to Use
* Look for **z crossing** above zero (bullish momentum) or below zero (bearish momentum).
* When **z enters the extreme band**, it suggests strong momentum; when it exits, that may indicate exhaustion or reversal.
* Watch **Δz** (momentum acceleration) for clues of weakening or strengthening momentum before z itself reacts.
* Use the **regime filter** to enforce that signals only count in favorable directional markets.
* Customize inputs: lookback window, smoothing length, extreme percentile, ADX/auto settings, colors, etc., to match your trading style and timeframe.
*Use VWAP as the anchor on intraday/session charts — because it resets each session, it highlights deviations from session “fair value” and captures volume-flow bias.
*Use EMA on swing or multi-day charts — it doesn’t reset, so it preserves trend structure and gives a smoother momentum baseline across sessions.
*In trending markets, EMA tends to deliver more reliable momentum extremes; in range or mean-reversion regimes, VWAP often gives more intuitive reversal zones.
---
## Limitations & Disclaimers
* Like all indicators, AZM is **lagging** (though adaptive) and should not be used as a standalone entry/exit trigger — always combine with price action, structure, or confirmation.
* The extreme thresholds are **percentile-based**, meaning in very quiet or very noisy periods, “extreme” may shift rapidly; use your eyes alongside the indicator.
* Because the script uses historical data and smoothing, earlier bars may differ from real-time behavior.
* Past behavior is no guarantee of future performance. Use proper risk management and test ideas on historical data before trading live.
---
## Inputs & Customization
* **Anchor** mode: Session VWAP (intraday) or EMA
* **Lookback window** and **smoothing EMA** for computing z
* **Extreme percentile** (e.g. 90) to define ±z thresholds
* **Auto / ADX-based tuning** to allow dynamic parameter changes in trending vs chop markets
* **Regime filter** (EMA slope or ADX) to restrict signals to trending conditions
* **Color settings** for inside vs outside extremes, background shading, zero line, Δz style, labels, etc.
* **Show/hide labels**, choose Δz style (columns, histogram, line, etc.)
---
## Why It’s Useful
By combining standard-score normalization with adaptive thresholds and regime sensitivity, AZM helps you see **relative momentum extremes** in a way that adjusts to market regime shifts. The dual visual cues (line color + background) reduce ambiguity at a glance.
---
Cumulative Volume Delta Profile and Heatmap [BackQuant]Cumulative Volume Delta Profile and Heatmap
A multi-view CVD workstation that measures buying vs selling pressure, renders a price-aligned CVD profile with Point of Control, paints an optional heatmap of delta intensity, and detects classical CVD divergences using pivot logic. Built for reading who is in control, where participation clustered, and when effort is failing to produce result.
What is CVD
Cumulative Volume Delta accumulates the difference between aggressive buys and aggressive sells over time. When CVD rises, buyers are lifting the offer more than sellers are hitting the bid. When CVD falls, the opposite is true. Plotting CVD alongside price helps you judge whether price moves are supported by real participation or are running on fumes.
Core Features
Visual Analysis Components
CVD Columns - Plot of cumulative delta, colored by side, for quick read of participation bias.
CVD Profile - Price-aligned histogram of CVD accumulation using user-set bins. Shows where net initiative clustered.
Split Buy and Sell CVD - Optional two-sided profile that separates positive and negative CVD into distinct wings.
POC - Point of Control - The price level with the highest absolute CVD accumulation, labeled and line-marked.
Heatmap - Semi-transparent blocks behind price that encode CVD intensity across the last N bars.
Divergence Engine - Pivot-based detection of Bearish and Bullish CVD divergences with optional lines and labels.
Stats Panel - Top level metrics: Total CVD, Buy and Sell totals with percentages, Delta Ratio, and current POC price.
How it works
Delta source and sampling
You select an Anchor Timeframe that defines the higher time aggregation for reading the trend of CVD.
The script pulls lower timeframe volume delta and aggregates it to the anchor window. You can let it auto-select the lower timeframe or force a custom one.
CVD is then accumulated bar by bar to form a running total. This plot shows the direction and persistence of initiative.
Profile construction
The recent price range is split into Profile Granularity bins.
As price traverses a bin, the current delta contribution is added to that bin.
If Split Buy and Sell CVD is enabled, positive CVD goes to the right wing and negative CVD to the left wing.
Widths are scaled by each side’s maximum so you can compare distribution shape at a glance.
The Point of Control is the bin with the highest absolute CVD. This marks where initiative concentrated the most.
Heatmap
For each bin, the script computes intensity as absolute CVD relative to the maximum bin value.
Color is derived from the side in control in that bin and shaded by intensity.
Heatmap Length sets how far back the panels extend, highlighting recurring participation zones.
Divergence model
You define pivot sensitivity with Pivot Left and Right .
Bearish divergence triggers when price confirms a higher high while CVD fails to make a higher high within a configurable Delta Tolerance .
Bullish divergence triggers when price confirms a lower low while CVD fails to make a lower low.
On trigger, optional link lines and labels are drawn at the pivots for immediate context.
Key Settings
Delta Source
Anchor Timeframe - Higher TF for the CVD narrative.
Custom Lower TF and Lower Timeframe - Force the sampling TF if desired.
Pivot Logic
Pivot Left and Right - Bars to each side for swing confirmation.
Delta Tolerance - Small allowance to avoid near-miss false positives.
CVD Profile
Show CVD Profile - Toggle profile rendering.
Split Buy and Sell CVD - Two-sided profile for clearer side attribution.
Show Heatmap - Project intensity panels behind price.
Show POC and POC Color - Mark the dominant CVD node.
Profile Granularity - Number of bins across the visible price range.
Profile Offset and Profile Width - Position and scale the profile.
Profile Position - Right, Left, or Current bar alignment.
Visuals
Bullish Div Color and Bearish Div Color - Colors for divergence artifacts.
Show Divergence Lines and Labels - Visualize pivots and annotations.
Plot CVD - Column plot of total CVD.
Show Statistics and Position - Toggle and place the summary table.
Reading the display
CVD columns
Rising CVD confirms buyers are in control. Falling CVD confirms sellers.
Flat or choppy CVD during wide price moves hints at passive or exhausted participation.
CVD profile wings
Thick right wing near a price zone implies heavy buy initiative accumulated there.
Thick left wing implies heavy sell initiative.
POC marks the strongest initiative node. Expect reactions on first touch and rotations around this level when the tape is balanced.
Heatmap
Brighter blocks indicate stronger historical net initiative at that price.
Stacked bright bands form CVD high volume nodes. These often behave like magnets or shelves for future trade.
Divergences
Bearish - Price prints a higher high while CVD fails to do so. Effort is not producing result. Potential fade or pause.
Bullish - Price prints a lower low while CVD fails to do so. Capitulation lacks initiative. Potential bounce or reversal.
Stats panel
Total CVD - Net initiative over the window.
Buy and Sell volume with percentages - Side composition.
Delta Ratio - Buy over Sell. Values above 1 favor buyers, below 1 favor sellers.
POC Price - Current control node for plan and risk.
Workflows
Trend following
Choose an Anchor Timeframe that matches your holding period.
Trade in the direction of CVD slope while price holds above a bullish POC or below a bearish POC.
Use pullbacks to CVD nodes on your profile as entry locations.
Trend weakens when price makes new highs but CVD stalls, or new lows while CVD recovers.
Mean reversion
Look for divergences at or near prior CVD nodes, especially the POC.
Fade tests into thick wings when the side that dominated there now fails to push CVD further.
Target rotations back toward the POC or the opposite wing edge.
Liquidity and execution map
Treat strong wings and heatmap bands as probable passive interest zones.
Expect pauses, partial fills, or flips at these shelves.
Stops make sense beyond the far edge of the active wing supporting your idea.
Alerts included
CVD Bearish Divergence and CVD Bullish Divergence.
Price Cross Above POC and Price Cross Below POC.
Extreme Buy Imbalance and Extreme Sell Imbalance from Delta Ratio.
CVD Turn Bullish and CVD Turn Bearish when net CVD crosses zero.
Price Near POC proximity alert.
Best practices
Use a higher Anchor Timeframe to stabilize the CVD story and a sensible Profile Granularity so wings are readable without clutter.
Keep Split mode on when you want to separate initiative attribution. Turn it off when you prefer a single net profile.
Tune Pivot Left and Right by instrument to avoid overfitting. Larger values find swing divergences. Smaller values find micro fades.
If volume is thin or synthetic for the symbol, CVD will be less reliable. The script will warn if volume is zero.
Trading applications
Context - Confirm or question breakouts with CVD slope.
Location - Build entries at CVD nodes and POC.
Timing - Use divergence and POC crosses for triggers.
Risk - Place stops beyond the opposite wing or outside the POC shelf.
Important notes and limits
This is a price and volume based study. It does not access off-book or venue-level order flow.
CVD profiles are built from the data available on your chart and the chosen lower timeframe sampling.
Like all volume tools, readings can distort during roll periods, holidays, or feed anomalies. Validate on your instrument.
Technical notes
Delta is aggregated from a lower timeframe into an Anchor Timeframe narrative.
Profile bins update in real time. Splitting by side scales each wing independently so both are readable in the same panel.
Divergences are confirmed using standard pivot definitions with user-set tolerances.
All profile drawing uses fixed X offsets so panels and POC do not swim when you scroll.
Quick start
Anchor Timeframe = Daily for intraday context.
Split Buy and Sell CVD = On.
Profile Granularity = 100 to 200, Profile Position = Right, Width to taste.
Pivot Left and Right around 8 to 12 to start, then adapt.
Turn on Heatmap for a fast map of interest bands.
Bottom line
CVD tells you who is doing the lifting. The profile shows where they did it. Divergences tell you when effort stops paying. Put them together and you get a clear read on control, location, and timing for both trend and mean reversion.
Volume-Confirmed Reversal Engine [AlgoPoint]Volume-Confirmed Reversal Engine v2.0
Overview
A price pattern alone is not enough to signal a high-probability reversal. True market turning points—moments of capitulation or euphoria—are almost always confirmed by a significant spike in volume.
The Volume-Confirmed Reversal Engine is designed to identify these exact moments. It filters out low-conviction price movements and focuses only on reversal patterns that are backed by meaningful volume activity.
How It Works
The indicator's logic is based on a sequential confirmation process:
- High-Volume Anchor Candle: The engine first scans for an "Anchor Candle"—a candle that makes a new high or low over a user-defined look_back period. Critically, this candle's volume must also be significantly higher than the recent average. Low-volume breakouts are ignored.
- Setup Activation & Visualization: When a valid Anchor Candle is detected, the indicator enters a "setup" phase. It visually marks this on your chart by drawing a Setup Box around the high and low of the Anchor Candle, extending it forward for the duration of the confirm_in window.
- Confirmation & Signal: A final signal is only triggered if the price breaks out of the opposite side of the Setup Box within the confirmation window. This action, combined with the initial volume spike, confirms the reversal.
- Setup Box Visualization: See exactly which candle the indicator is watching and the key price levels (the box boundaries) that need to be broken for a signal.
Signal Strength Score (1-4): Every signal now comes with a score, providing insight into its quality based on four factors:
- The base price pattern is met.
- The initial Anchor Candle had high volume.
- The final Confirmation Candle also had high volume.
- The signal is aligned with the long-term macro trend (e.g., a BUY signal above the 200 EMA).
Status Dashboard: A simple panel on your chart tells you what the indicator is doing in real-time ("Scanning for Setups," "Watching Bullish Setup," etc.) and displays a countdown for how many bars are left for a confirmation.
How to Interpret & Use
- The Box: When a colored box appears, it's an early warning that a reversal setup is active. Watch the boundaries of the box for a potential breakout.
- The Score: Use the score to gauge the quality of a signal. A 3/4 or 4/4 score represents a very high-conviction setup where multiple technical factors are aligned.
- The Dashboard: Use the panel to understand the indicator's current state and the time-sensitivity of an active setup.
- The BUY/SELL Labels: These are the final, actionable triggers, appearing only after the full price and volume confirmation process is complete.
FibPulse144 [CHE] FibPulse144 — ADX-gated 13/21 crossover with 144-trend regime and closed-bar labels
Summary
FibPulse144 combines a fast moving-average crossover with a 144-period trend regime and an ADX strength gate. Signals are confirmed on closed bars only and drawn as labels on the price chart, while an ADX line in a separate pane provides context. Color gradients are derived from normalized ADX, so visual intensity reflects trend strength without changing the underlying logic. The approach reduces false flips during weak conditions and keeps entries aligned with the dominant trend.
Motivation: Why this design?
Traditional crossover signals can flip repeatedly during sideways phases and often trigger against the higher-time regime. By requiring alignment with a slower trend proxy and by gating entries through a rising ADX condition, FibPulse144 favors structurally cleaner transitions. Gradient coloring communicates strength visually, helping users temper aggressiveness without additional indicators.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Baseline: Classic dual-MA crossover with unconditional signals.
Architecture differences:
Two-bar regime confirmation against a 144-period trend average.
Pending-signal logic that waits for regime and optional ADX approval.
ADX strength gate using the prior reading relative to a user threshold and earlier value.
Gradient colors scaled by an ADX window with gamma controls.
Price-chart labels enforced via overlay on an otherwise pane-based indicator.
Practical effect: Fewer signals during weak or choppy conditions, labels that appear only after a bar closes, and color intensity that mirrors trend quality.
How it works (technical)
The script computes fast and slow moving averages using the selected method and lengths. A separate 144-length average defines the regime using a two-bar confirmation above or below it. Crossovers are observed on the previous bar to avoid intrabar ambiguity; once a prior crossover is detected, it is stored as pending. A pending long requires regime alignment and, if enabled, an ADX condition based on the previous reading being above the threshold and greater than an earlier reading. The state machine holds neutral, long, or short until an exit condition or ADX reset is met. ADX is normalized within a user window, scaled with gamma, and mapped to up and down color palettes to render gradients. Labels on the price panel are forced to overlay, while the ADX line and threshold guide remain in a separate pane.
Parameter Guide
Source — Input data for all calculations. Default: close. Tip: keep consistent with your chart.
MA Type — EMA or SMA. Default: EMA. EMA reacts faster; SMA is smoother.
Fast / Slow — Fast and slow lengths for crossover. Defaults: 13 and 21. Shorter reacts earlier; longer reduces noise.
Trend — Regime average length. Default: 144. Larger values stabilize regime; smaller values increase sensitivity.
Use 144 as trend filter — Enables regime gating. Default: true. Disable to allow raw crossovers.
Use ADX filter — Requires ADX strength. Default: true. Disable to allow signals regardless of strength.
ADX Len — DI and ADX smoothing length. Default: 14. Higher values smooth strength; lower values react faster.
ADX Thresh — Minimum strength for signals. Default: 25. Raise to reduce flips; lower to capture earlier moves.
Entry/Exit labels (price) — Price-panel labels on state changes. Default: true.
Signal labels in ADX pane — Small markers at the ADX value on entries. Default: true.
Label size — tiny, small, normal, large. Default: normal.
Enable barcolor — Optional candle tint by regime and gradient. Default: false.
Enable gradient — Turns on ADX-driven color blending. Default: true.
Window — Bars used to normalize ADX for colors. Default: 100; minimum: 5.
Gamma bars / Gamma plots — Nonlinear scaling for bar and line intensities. Default: 0.80; between 0.30 and 2.00.
Gradient transp (0–90) — Transparency for gradient colors. Default: 0.
MA fill transparency (0–100) — Fill opacity between fast and slow lines. Default: 65.
Palette colors (Up/Down) — Dark and neon endpoints for up and down gradients. Defaults as in the code.
Reading & Interpretation
Fast/Slow lines: When the fast line is above the slow line, the line and fill use the long palette; when below, the short palette is used.
Trend MA (144): Neutral gray line indicating the regime boundary.
Labels on price: “LONG” appears when the state turns long; “SHORT” when it turns short. Labels appear only after the bar closes and conditions are satisfied.
ADX pane: The ADX line shows current strength. The dotted threshold line is the user level for gating. Optional small markers indicate entries at the ADX value.
Bar colors (optional): Candle tint intensity reflects normalized ADX. Higher intensity implies stronger conditions.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Trend following: Use long entries when fast crosses above slow and price has held above the trend average for two bars, with ADX above threshold. Mirror this for shorts below the trend average.
Exits and stops: Consider reducing exposure when price closes on the opposite side of the trend average for two consecutive bars or when ADX fades below the threshold if the ADX filter is enabled.
Structure confirmation: Combine with higher-timeframe structure such as swing highs and lows or a simple market structure overlay for confirmation.
Multi-asset/Multi-TF: Works across liquid assets. For lower timeframes, consider a slightly lower ADX threshold; for higher timeframes, maintain or raise the threshold to avoid unnecessary flips.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint/confirmation: Signals are based on previous-bar crossovers and are confirmed on bar close. No higher-timeframe or security calls are used. Intrabar markers are not relied upon.
Resources: The script declares `max_bars_back` of 2000, uses no loops or arrays, and employs persistent variables for pending signals and state.
Known limits: Crossover systems can lag after sudden reversals. During tight ranges, disabling the ADX filter may increase flips; keeping it enabled may skip early transitions.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Starting point: EMA, 13/21/144, ADX length 14, ADX threshold 25, gradients on, barcolor off.
Too many flips: Increase ADX threshold or length; increase trend length; consider SMA instead of EMA.
Too sluggish: Lower ADX threshold slightly; shorten fast and slow lengths; reduce the trend length.
Colors overpowering: Increase gradient transparency or reduce gamma values toward one.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a visualization and signal layer that combines crossover, regime, and strength gating. It does not predict future movements, manage risk, or execute trades. Use it alongside clear structure, risk controls, and a defined position management plan.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Premarket Hi/Lo + Prior Day O/C LevelsPremarket Hi/Lo + Prior Day O/C (today only) shows four clear reference levels for the current regular trading session: the Premarket High and Premarket Low (taken from a user-defined premarket window, 04:00–09:30 by default) and Yesterday’s 09:30 Open and 15:59 Close (sourced from the 1-minute feed for accuracy). The premarket levels “lock” at the opening bell so they don’t move for the rest of the day. All four lines are displayed only during today’s regular hours to keep the chart focused. Small right-edge labels and an optional top-right mini-table show the exact values at a glance.
This indicator is designed to give immediate context without technical jargon. The premarket high/low summarize where price traveled before the bell; the prior-day open/close summarize where the last session began and ended. Checking whether price is above or below these markers helps you quickly judge strength or weakness and anticipate where price may pause, bounce, or break. Typical uses include watching for a clean break and hold above Premarket High (often bullish), a break and hold below Premarket Low (often bearish), drift back toward Prior Day Close after a gap (a common “magnet”), and flips around Prior Day Open that can lead to continuation.
Setup: Turn on Extended Hours in TradingView so premarket bars are visible (Chart Settings → Symbol → Extended Hours). Apply the indicator to any intraday timeframe. In Inputs, you can change the premarket window to match your market, adjust colors and line widths, and toggle the floating labels and the mini-table. Times use the chart’s exchange time (for US stocks, Eastern Time).
Notes and limits: Lines show only for today’s session (default 09:30–16:00). The script looks at the previous calendar day for “prior day,” so values may be empty after weekends or holidays when markets were closed. If your instrument uses different regular hours or you trade futures/crypto, adjust the premarket session in Inputs and—if needed—edit the regular-hours window in code to match. If your data source does not include premarket, the premarket lines will be blank.
Best practice: The first 15–30 minutes after the open are where these levels have the most impact. Reactions are more meaningful when a line aligns with another tool you use (e.g., VWAP or your opening range). If price does not react clearly at a line, avoid forcing a trade.
ORB Breakout Traffic Signal (5/15/30)ORB Breakout Traffic Signal (5/15/30)
This indicator visualizes Opening Range Breakouts (ORB) for the first 5, 15, and 30 minutes of the US regular trading session (09:30–16:00 ET).
It provides a compact, easy-to-read traffic signal table on your chart to show whether price is breaking out, breaking down, or consolidating inside the range.
🔑 Features
Auto-anchors at 09:30 ET (converted to your local time automatically).
Tracks ORB High/Low for:
5-minute window (09:30–09:34)
15-minute window (09:30–09:44)
30-minute window (09:30–09:59)
Displays results in a compact table:
↑ (green) → price has broken above the ORB high
↓ (red) → price has broken below the ORB low
• (gray) → price remains inside the ORB range (optional; can be disabled)
Customizable:
Toggle which ORBs to show (5m, 15m, 30m)
Choose table position (top/bottom left/right)
Adjustable text size
Option to plot the ORB High/Low lines on your chart
📌 Usage
Designed for intraday traders watching US equities/ETFs/futures.
Works best on 1-minute or 5-minute charts with Extended Hours turned OFF (so the session starts exactly at 09:30 ET).
Helps you quickly spot early breakouts (5m), mid-session trends (15m), or confirmed directional moves (30m).
⚠️ Notes
Signals only update during the RTH session
Outside market hours, the last locked ORB and signal remain displayed until the next open.
This tool is for analysis/visualization only; not a buy/sell signal. Always combine with your own trading strategy and risk management.
👉 Perfect for traders who want a quick visual confirmation of whether price is breaking out of the opening range or stuck inside it.
Adaptive Rolling Quantile Bands [CHE] Adaptive Rolling Quantile Bands
Part 1 — Mathematics and Algorithmic Design
Purpose. The indicator estimates distribution‐aware price levels from a rolling window and turns them into dynamic “buy” and “sell” bands. It can work on raw price or on *residuals* around a baseline to better isolate deviations from trend. Optionally, the percentile parameter $q$ adapts to volatility via ATR so the bands widen in turbulent regimes and tighten in calm ones. A compact, latched state machine converts these statistical levels into high-quality discretionary signals.
Data pipeline.
1. Choose a source (default `close`; MTF optional via `request.security`).
2. Optionally compute a baseline (`SMA` or `EMA`) of length $L$.
3. Build the *working series*: raw price if residual mode is off; otherwise price minus baseline (if a baseline exists).
4. Maintain a FIFO buffer of the last $N$ values (window length). All quantiles are computed on this buffer.
5. Map the resulting levels back to price space if residual mode is on (i.e., add back the baseline).
6. Smooth levels with a short EMA for readability.
Rolling quantiles.
Given the buffer $X_{t-N+1..t}$ and a percentile $q\in $, the indicator sorts a copy of the buffer ascending and linearly interpolates between adjacent ranks to estimate:
* Buy band $\approx Q(q)$
* Sell band $\approx Q(1-q)$
* Median $Q(0.5)$, plus optional deciles $Q(0.10)$ and $Q(0.90)$
Quantiles are robust to outliers relative to means. The estimator uses only data up to the current bar’s value in the buffer; there is no look-ahead.
Residual transform (optional).
In residual mode, quantiles are computed on $X^{res}_t = \text{price}_t - \text{baseline}_t$. This centers the distribution and often yields more stationary tails. After computing $Q(\cdot)$ on residuals, levels are transformed back to price space by adding the baseline. If `Baseline = None`, residual mode simply falls back to raw price.
Volatility-adaptive percentile.
Let $\text{ATR}_{14}(t)$ be current ATR and $\overline{\text{ATR}}_{100}(t)$ its long SMA. Define a volatility ratio $r = \text{ATR}_{14}/\overline{\text{ATR}}_{100}$. The effective quantile is:
Smoothing.
Each level is optionally smoothed by an EMA of length $k$ for cleaner visuals. This smoothing does not change the underlying quantile logic; it only stabilizes plots and signals.
Latched state machines.
Two three-step processes convert levels into “latched” signals that only fire after confirmation and then reset:
* BUY latch:
(1) HLC3 crosses above the median →
(2) the median is rising →
(3) HLC3 prints above the upper (orange) band → BUY latched.
* SELL latch:
(1) HLC3 crosses below the median →
(2) the median is falling →
(3) HLC3 prints below the lower (teal) band → SELL latched.
Labels are drawn on the latch bar, with a FIFO cap to limit clutter. Alerts are available for both the simple band interactions and the latched events. Use “Once per bar close” to avoid intrabar churn.
MTF behavior and repainting.
MTF sourcing uses `lookahead_off`. Quantiles and baselines are computed from completed data only; however, any *intrabar* cross conditions naturally stabilize at close. As with all real-time indicators, values can update during a live bar; prefer bar-close alerts for reliability.
Complexity and parameters.
Each bar sorts a copy of the $N$-length window (practical $N$ values keep this inexpensive). Typical choices: $N=50$–$100$, $q_0=0.15$–$0.25$, $k=2$–$5$, baseline length $L=20$ (if used), adaptation strength $s=0.2$–$0.7$.
Part 2 — Practical Use for Discretionary/Active Traders
What the bands mean in practice.
The teal “buy” band marks the lower tail of the recent distribution; the orange “sell” band marks the upper tail. The median is your dynamic equilibrium. In residual mode, these tails are deviations around trend; in raw mode they are absolute price percentiles. When ATR adaptation is on, tails breathe with regime shifts.
Two core playbooks.
1. Mean-reversion around a stable median.
* Context: The median is flat or gently sloped; band width is relatively tight; instrument is ranging.
* Entry (long): Look for price to probe or close below the buy band and then reclaim it, especially after HLC3 recrosses the median and the median turns up.
* Stops: Place beyond the most recent swing low or $1.0–1.5\times$ ATR(14) below entry.
* Targets: First scale at the median; optional second scale near the opposite band. Trail with the median or an ATR stop.
* Symmetry: Mirror the rules for shorts near the sell band when the median is flat to down.
2. Continuation with latched confirmations.
* Context: A developing trend where you want fewer but cleaner signals.
* Entry (long): Take the latched BUY (3-step confirmation) on close, or on the next bar if you require bar-close validation.
* Invalidation: A close back below the median (or below the lower band in strong trends) negates momentum.
* Exits: Trail under the median for conservative exits or under the teal band for trend-following exits. Consider scaling at structure (prior swing highs) or at a fixed $R$ multiple.
Parameter guidance by timeframe.
* Scalping / LTF (1–5m): $N=30$–$60$, $q_0=0.20$, $k=2$–3, residual mode on, baseline EMA $L=20$, adaptation $s=0.5$–0.7 to handle micro-vol spikes. Expect more signals; rely on latched logic to filter noise.
* Intraday swing (15–60m): $N=60$–$100$, $q_0=0.15$–0.20, $k=3$–4. Residual mode helps but is optional if the instrument trends cleanly. $s=0.3$–0.6.
* Swing / HTF (4H–D): $N=80$–$150$, $q_0=0.10$–0.18, $k=3$–5. Consider `SMA` baseline for smoother residuals and moderate adaptation $s=0.2$–0.4.
Baseline choice.
Use EMA for responsiveness (fast trend shifts) and SMA for stability (smoother residuals). Turning residual mode on is advantageous when price exhibits persistent drift; turning it off is useful when you explicitly want absolute bands.
How to time entries.
Prefer bar-close validation for both band recaptures and latched signals. If you must act intrabar, accept that crosses can “un-cross” before close; compensate with tighter stops or reduced size.
Risk management.
Position size to a fixed fractional risk per trade (e.g., 0.5–1.0% of equity). Define invalidation using structure (swing points) plus ATR. Avoid chasing when distance to the opposite band is small; reward-to-risk degrades rapidly once you are deep inside the distribution.
Combos and filters.
* Pair with a higher-timeframe median slope as a regime filter (trade only in the direction of the HTF median).
* Use band width relative to ATR as a range/trend gauge: unusually narrow bands suggest compression (mean-reversion bias); expanding bands suggest breakout potential (favor latched continuation).
* Volume or session filters (e.g., avoid illiquid hours) can materially improve execution.
Alerts for discretion.
Enable “Cross above Buy Level” / “Cross below Sell Level” for early notices and “Latched BUY/SELL” for conviction entries. Set alerts to “Once per bar close” to avoid noise.
Common pitfalls.
Do not interpret band touches as automatic signals; context matters. A strong trend will often ride the far band (“band walking”) and punish counter-trend fades—use the median slope and latched logic to separate trend from range. Do not oversmooth levels; you will lag breaks. Do not set $q$ too small or too large; extremes reduce statistical meaning and practical distance for stops.
A concise checklist.
1. Is the median flat (range) or sloped (trend)?
2. Is band width expanding or contracting vs ATR?
3. Are we near the tail level aligned with the intended trade?
4. For continuation: did the 3 steps for a latched signal complete?
5. Do stops and targets produce acceptable $R$ (≥1.5–2.0)?
6. Are you trading during liquid hours for the instrument?
Summary. ARQB provides statistically grounded, regime-aware bands and a disciplined, latched confirmation engine. Use the bands as objective context, the median as your equilibrium line, ATR adaptation to stay calibrated across regimes, and the latched logic to time higher-quality discretionary entries.
Disclaimer
No indicator guarantees profits. Adaptive Rolling Quantile Bands is a decision aid; always combine with solid risk management and your own judgment. Backtest, forward test, and size responsibly.
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Enhance your trading precision and confidence 🚀
Best regards
Chervolino
Breakout Volume Momentum [5m]Breakout Volume Momentum Indicator (Pine Script v5)
This TradingView Pine Script v5 indicator plots a green dot below a 5-minute price bar whenever all the breakout and volume conditions are met. It is optimized for live intraday trading (not backtesting) and includes customizable inputs for thresholds and trading session times. Key features and conditions of this indicator:
Gap Up Threshold: Current price is up at least X% (default 20%) from the previous day’s close (uses higher-timeframe daily data) before any signal can trigger.
Relative Volume (RVOL): Current bar’s volume is at least Y× (default 2×) the average volume of the last 20 bars. This ensures unusually high volume is present, indicating strong interest.
Trend Alignment: Price is trading above the VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) and above a fast EMA. In addition, the fast EMA (default 9) is above the slower EMA (default 20) to confirm bullish momentum
tradingview.com
tradingview.com
. These filters ensure the stock is in an intraday uptrend (above the average price and rising EMAs).
Intraday Breakout (optional): Optionally require the price to break above the recent intraday high (default last 30 bars). If enabled, a signal only occurs when the stock exceeds its prior range high, confirming a breakout. This can be toggled on/off in the settings.
Avoid Parabolic Spikes: The script skips any bar with an excessively large range (default >12% from low to high), to avoid triggering on spiky or unsustainable parabolic candles.
Time Window Filter: Signals are restricted to a specific session window (by default 09:30 – 11:00 exchange time, typically the morning session) and will not trigger outside these hours. The session window is adjustable via inputs
stackoverflow.com
.
Alerts: An alert condition is provided so you can set a Trading View alert to send a push notification when a green dot signal fires. The alert message includes the ticker and price at the time of signal.
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator [BackQuant]Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator
1. Big-picture idea
Traditional percentile or stochastic oscillators treat every bar in the look-back window as equally important. That is fine when markets are slow, but if volatility regime changes quickly yesterday’s print should matter more than last month’s. The Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator attempts to fix that blind spot by assigning an adjustable weight to every past price before it is ranked. The result is a percentile score that “breathes” with market tempo much faster to flag new extremes yet still smooth enough to ignore random noise.
2. What the script actually does
Build a weight curve
• You pick a look-back length (default 28 bars).
• You decide whether weights fall Linearly , Exponentially , by Power-law or Logarithmically .
• A decay factor (lower = faster fade) shapes how quickly the oldest price loses influence.
• The array is normalised so all weights still sum to 1.
Rank prices by weighted mass
• Every close in the window is paired with its weight.
• The pairs are sorted from low to high.
• The cumulative weight is walked until it equals your chosen percentile level (default 50 = median).
• That price becomes the Time-Decayed Percentile .
Find dispersion with robust statistics
• Instead of a fragile standard deviation the script measures weighted Median-Absolute-Deviation about the new percentile.
• You multiply that deviation by the Deviation Multiplier slider (default 1.0) to get a non-parametric volatility band.
Build an adaptive channel
• Upper band = percentile + (multiplier × deviation)
• Lower band = percentile – (multiplier × deviation)
Normalise into a 0-100 oscillator
• The current close is mapped inside that band:
0 = lower band, 50 = centre, 100 = upper band.
• If the channel squeezes, tiny moves still travel the full scale; if volatility explodes, it automatically widens.
Optional smoothing
• A second-stage moving average (EMA, SMA, DEMA, TEMA, etc.) tames the jitter.
• Length 22 EMA by default—change it to tune reaction speed.
Threshold logic
• Upper Threshold 70 and Lower Threshold 30 separate standard overbought/oversold states.
• Extreme bands 85 and 15 paint background heat when aggressive fade or breakout trades might trigger.
Divergence engine
• Looks back twenty bars.
• Flags Bullish divergence when price makes a lower low but oscillator refuses to confirm (value < 40).
• Flags Bearish divergence when price prints a higher high but oscillator stalls (value > 60).
3. Component walk-through
• Source – Any price series. Close by default, switch to typical price or custom OHLC4 for futures spreads.
• Look-back Period – How many bars to rank. Short = faster, long = slower.
• Base Percentile Level – 50 shows relative position around the median; set to 25 / 75 for quartile tracking or 90 / 10 for extreme tails.
• Deviation Multiplier – Higher values widen the dynamic channel, lowering whipsaw but delaying signals.
• Decay Settings
– Type decides the curve shape. Exponential (default 1.16) mimics EMA logic.
– Factor < 1 shrinks influence faster; > 1 spreads influence flatter.
– Toggle Enable Time Decay off to compare with classic equal-weight stochastic.
• Smoothing Block – Choose one of seven MA flavours plus length.
• Thresholds – Overbought / Oversold / Extreme levels. Push them out when working on very mean-reverting assets like FX; pull them in for trend monsters like crypto.
• Display toggles – Show or hide threshold lines, extreme filler zones, bar colouring, divergence labels.
• Colours – Bullish green, bearish red, neutral grey. Every gradient step is automatically blended to generate a heat map across the 0-100 range.
4. How to read the chart
• Oscillator creeping above 70 = market auctioning near the top of its adaptive range.
• Fast poke above 85 with no follow-through = exhaustion fade candidate.
• Slow grind that lives above 70 for many bars = valid bullish trend, not a fade.
• Cross back through 50 shows balance has shifted; treat it like a micro trend change.
• Divergence arrows add extra confidence when you already see two-bar reversal candles at range extremes.
• Background shading (semi-transparent red / green) warns of extreme states and throttles your position size.
5. Practical trading playbook
Mean-reversion scalps
1. Wait for oscillator to reach your desired OB/ OS levels
2. Check the slope of the smoothing MA—if it is flattening the squeeze is mature.
3. Look for a one- or two-bar reversal pattern.
4. Enter against the move; first target = midline 50, second target = opposite threshold.
5. Stop loss just beyond the extreme band.
Trend continuation pullbacks
1. Identify a clean directional trend on the price chart.
2. During the trend, TDP will oscillate between midline and extreme of that side.
3. Buy dips when oscillator hits OS levels, and the same for OB levels & shorting
4. Exit when oscillator re-tags the same-side extreme or prints divergence.
Volatility regime filter
• Use the Enable Time Decay switch as a regime test.
• If equal-weight oscillator and decayed oscillator diverge widely, market is entering a new volatility regime—tighten stops and trade smaller.
Divergence confirmation for other indicators
• Pair TDP divergence arrows with MACD histogram or RSI to filter false positives.
• The weighted nature means TDP often spots divergence a bar or two earlier than standard RSI.
Swing breakout strategy
1. During consolidation, band width compresses and oscillator oscillates around 50.
2. Watch for sudden expansion where oscillator blasts through extreme bands and stays pinned.
3. Enter with momentum in breakout direction; trail stop behind upper or lower band as it re-expands.
6. Customising decay mathematics
Linear – Each older bar loses the same fixed amount of influence. Intuitive and stable; good for slow swing charts.
Exponential – Influence halves every “decay factor” steps. Mirrors EMA thinking and is fastest to react.
Power-law – Mid-history bars keep more authority than exponential but oldest data still fades. Handy for commodities where seasonality matters.
Logarithmic – The gentlest curve; weight drops sharply at first then levels off. Mimics how traders remember dramatic moves for weeks but forget ordinary noise quickly.
Turn decay off to verify the tool’s added value; most users never switch back.
7. Alert catalogue
• TD Overbought / TD Oversold – Cross of regular thresholds.
• TD Extreme OB / OS – Breach of danger zones.
• TD Bullish / Bearish Divergence – High-probability reversal watch.
• TD Midline Cross – Momentum shift that often precedes a window where trend-following systems perform.
8. Visual hygiene tips
• If you already plot price on a dark background pick Bullish Color and Bearish Color default; change to pastel tones for light themes.
• Hide threshold lines after you memorise the zones to declutter scalping layouts.
• Overlay mode set to false so the oscillator lives in its own panel; keep height about 30 % of screen for best resolution.
9. Final notes
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator marries robust statistical ranking, adaptive dispersion and decay-aware weighting into a simple oscillator. It respects both recent order-flow shocks and historical context, offers granular control over responsiveness and ships with divergence and alert plumbing out of the box. Bolt it onto your price action framework, trend-following system or volatility mean-reversion playbook and see how much sooner it recognises genuine extremes compared to legacy oscillators.
Backtest thoroughly, experiment with decay curves on each asset class and remember: in trading, timing beats timidity but patience beats impulse. May this tool help you find that edge.
TrendShift [MOT]📈 TrendShift – Multi-Factor Momentum & Trend Signal Suite
TrendShift is a precision-built momentum and confluence tool designed to highlight directional shifts in price action. It combines EMA slope structure, oscillator confirmation, volume behavior, and dynamic SL/TP logic into one cohesive system. Whether you're trading with the trend or catching reversals, TrendShift provides data-backed clarity and visual confidence — and it’s available free to the public.
🔍 Core Signal Logic
Buy (🟢 Long) and Sell (🔴 Short) signals are triggered when multiple conditions align within a set bar window (default: 5 bars):
Stochastic RSI K/D cross
RSI crosses above 20 (long) or below 80 (short)
Stochastic RSI breaks 20 (long) or 80 (short)
Volume exceeds 20-bar average
🧭 Visual Trend Dashboard – Signal Table
A real-time on-chart dashboard displays:
EMA Trend: Bullish / Bearish / Mixed (based on 4 EMA slopes)
Stoch RSI: Oversold / Overbought / Neutral
RSI: Exact value with zone label
Volume: Above or Below average
Dashboard theme and position are fully customizable.
📐 Trend Structure with EMA Slope Logic
Plots four EMAs (21, 50, 100, 200) color-coded by slope:
Green = Rising
Red = Falling
These feed into the dashboard's EMA Trend display.
🎯 Optional Take Profit / Stop Loss Zones
When enabled, SL/TP lines plot automatically on valid signals:
Fixed-distance targets (e.g., 10pt TP, 5pt SL)
Auto-remove on TP or SL hit
Separate lines for long vs. short trades
Fully customizable styling
🔁 Trailing Stop Filter (Internal Logic)
A custom ATR-based trailing stop helps validate directional strength:
ATR period
HHV window
ATR multiplier
Used internally — not plotted — to confirm trend progression before entry.
⚙️ Customizable Parameters
Every core component is user-configurable:
EMA periods: 21 / 50 / 100 / 200
ATR trailing logic: period, HHV, multiplier
Oscillator settings: Stoch RSI & RSI
Volume length
SL/TP toggles and point values
Bar clustering window
Dashboard theme and location
🔔 Alerts Included
BUY Signal Triggered
SELL Signal Triggered
Compatible with webhook automation or mobile push notifications.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This tool is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves risk — always do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making trading decisions.
Big Trade % Heatmap### Big Trade % Heatmap
**Quick overview**
This indicator highlights where “whale” activity is clustered by showing what fraction of the recent candles contained *large‑value trades*. A candle is considered “big” when its notional volume (`volume × close`) exceeds your chosen USD threshold. You instantly see:
* **Percent of big candles** in the last *N* bars, refreshed at the cadence you pick.
* **On‑chart labels & markers** every refresh, so the chart stays clean.
* **Optional heat‑map background** that turns orange (>20 %) or green (>50 %) when big‑trade concentration spikes.
* **Ready‑made alert** when big‑trade dominance crosses 50 %.
---
#### How it works
1. **Trade size per candle** – Calculates `close × volume` to estimate dollars traded.
2. **Threshold filter** – Flags candles whose value is above *Big Trade Threshold (\$)*.
3. **Look‑back window** – Counts what percentage of the last *Lookback Window (X Candles)* were “big.”
4. **Refresh interval** – Repeats the measurement only every *Refresh Interval (Every X Candles)* to avoid label spam.
5. **Visuals** –
* A small blue ▼ above the bar + a text label such as `35.00 % > $25 000`.
* Background shading (green/orange) for quick, at‑a‑glance sentiment.
---
#### Inputs
| Input | Purpose | Default |
| -------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- | ------- |
| **Lookback Window (X Candles)** | How many recent bars to sample for the % calculation. | 20 |
| **Refresh Interval (Every X Candles)** | How often to display a new label/marker. | 5 |
| **Big Trade Threshold (\$)** | Minimum USD value for a candle to count as “big.” | 10 000 |
Tune these to the symbol and timeframe you trade (e.g., raise the threshold for BTC‑USDT 1‑h, lower it for micro‑caps).
---
#### Alerts
Enable **“High Big Trade %”** to get notified the moment more than half of the last *N* candles qualify as big trades—handy for spotting sudden accumulation or distribution.
---
#### Typical use cases
* **Breakout confirmation** – A surge in big‑trade % just before price escapes a range can validate the move.
* **Whale spotting** – Detect hidden accumulation on pullbacks or aggressive selling into rallies.
* **Filter noise** – Combine with your favorite trend indicator; only act when both align.
---
> *Built with Pine Script v6. Always back‑test before trading live; this tool is for educational purposes and not financial advice.*
LANZ Strategy 5.0🔷 LANZ Strategy 5.0 — Intraday BUY Signals, Dynamic Lot Size per Account, Real-Time Dashboard and Smart Execution
LANZ Strategy 5.0 is a powerful intraday tool designed for traders who need a visual-first, data-backed BUY system, enhanced with risk-aware lot size calculation and a real-time performance dashboard. This indicator intelligently detects strong momentum setups and provides visual and statistical clarity throughout the session.
📌 This is an indicator, not a strategy — It does not place trades automatically but provides precise conditions, alerts, and visual guides to support execution.
🧠 Core Logic & Features
BUY Entry Conditions (Signal Engine)
A BUY signal is triggered when:
The current price is above the EMA200 (trend filter)
The last 3 candles are bullish (candle body close > open)
You are within the defined session window (NY time)
When all conditions are met and you haven’t reached the daily trade limit, a signal appears on the chart and an optional alert is triggered.
Operational Hours Filter (NY Time)
You define:
Start time (e.g., 01:15 NY)
End time (e.g., 16:00 NY)
The system only evaluates and executes signals within this period. If a BUY setup occurs outside the window, it’s ignored. The chart is also highlighted with a transparent teal background to visually show active trading hours.
Lot Size Panel with Per-Account Risk Management
Designed for traders managing multiple accounts or capital sources. You can enable up to 5 accounts, each with:
Its own capital
Its own risk percentage per trade
The system uses the defined SL in pips, plus the instrument’s pip value, to calculate the lot size per account. All values are shown in a dedicated panel at the bottom-right, automatically updating with each new trade.
The emojis (🐣🦊🦁🐲🐳) distinguish each account visually.
Trade Visualization with Customizable Lines
When a signal is triggered:
An Entry Point (EP) line is drawn at the candle’s close.
A Stop Loss (SL) line is placed X pips below the entry.
A Take Profit (TP) line is placed Y pips above the entry.
All three lines are fully customizable in style, color, and thickness. You define how many bars the lines should extend.
Outcome Tracking & Real-Time Dashboard
Each trade outcome is measured:
SL hit = –1.00%
TP hit = +3.00%
Manual close = calculated dynamically based on price at close time
Each result is labeled on the chart near its level, and stored.
The top-right dashboard updates in real time:
✅ Number of trades
📈 Cumulative % gain/loss of the day (color-coded)
Alerts You Can Trust:
You’ll get a Buy Alert when a valid signal is formed
You’ll get a Trade Executed Alert when the visual operation is plotted
You’ll get a SL/TP Hit Alert with price and result
You’ll get a Manual Close Alert if the configured time is reached and the trade is still active
⚙️ Step-by-Step Execution Flow
At every bar, the system checks:
Are we within the session time window?
Is price above EMA?
Are the last 3 candles bullish?
✅ If yes:
A BUY signal is plotted
Entry/SL/TP lines are drawn
Lot sizes are calculated and displayed
Trade is added to the daily count
🕐 At the configured Manual Close time (e.g., 16:00 NY):
If the trade is still open, it's closed
A label is added with the exact result in %
💡 Ideal For:
Intraday traders who operate within fixed time sessions
Traders managing multiple accounts or capital pools
Anyone who wants full visual clarity of every decision point
Traders who appreciate dynamic lot size calculation and clean execution tracking
👨💻 Credits:
💡 Developed by: LANZ
🧠 Strategy concept & execution model: LANZ
🧪 Tested on: 1H charts with visual-only execution
📈 Designed for: Clarity, adaptability, and full intraday control
Tsallis Entropy Market RiskTsallis Entropy Market Risk Indicator
What Is It?
The Tsallis Entropy Market Risk Indicator is a market analysis tool that measures the degree of randomness or disorder in price movements. Unlike traditional technical indicators that focus on price patterns or momentum, this indicator takes a statistical physics approach to market analysis.
Scientific Foundation
The indicator is based on Tsallis entropy, a generalization of traditional Shannon entropy developed by physicist Constantino Tsallis. The Tsallis entropy is particularly effective at analyzing complex systems with long-range correlations and memory effects—precisely the characteristics found in crypto and stock markets.
The indicator also borrows from Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL).
Core Concepts
1. Entropy Deficit
The primary measurement is the "entropy deficit," which represents how far the market is from a state of maximum randomness:
Low Entropy Deficit (0-0.3): The market exhibits random, uncorrelated price movements typical of efficient markets
Medium Entropy Deficit (0.3-0.5): Some patterns emerging, moderate deviation from randomness
High Entropy Deficit (0.5-0.7): Strong correlation patterns, potentially indicating herding behavior
Extreme Entropy Deficit (0.7-1.0): Highly ordered price movements, often seen before significant market events
2. Multi-Scale Analysis
The indicator calculates entropy across different timeframes:
Short-term Entropy (blue line): Captures recent market behavior (20-day window)
Long-term Entropy (green line): Captures structural market behavior (120-day window)
Main Entropy (purple line): Primary measurement (60-day window)
3. Scale Ratio
This measures the relationship between long-term and short-term entropy. A healthy market typically has a scale ratio above 0.85. When this ratio drops below 0.85, it suggests abnormal relationships between timeframes that often precede market dislocations.
How It Works
Data Collection: The indicator samples price returns over specific lookback periods
Probability Distribution Estimation: It creates a histogram of these returns to estimate their probability distribution
Entropy Calculation: Using the Tsallis q-parameter (typically 1.5), it calculates how far this distribution is from maximum entropy
Normalization: Results are normalized against theoretical maximum entropy to create the entropy deficit measure
Risk Assessment: Multiple factors are combined to generate a composite risk score and classification
Market Interpretation
Low Risk Environments (Risk Score < 25)
Market is functioning efficiently with reasonable randomness
Price discovery is likely effective
Normal trading and investment approaches appropriate
Medium Risk Environments (Risk Score 25-50)
Increasing correlation in price movements
Beginning of trend formation or momentum
Time to monitor positions more closely
High Risk Environments (Risk Score 50-75)
Strong herding behavior present
Market potentially becoming one-sided
Consider reducing position sizes or implementing hedges
Extreme Risk Environments (Risk Score > 75)
Highly ordered market behavior
Significant imbalance between buyers and sellers
Heightened probability of sharp reversals or corrections
Practical Application Examples
Market Tops: Often characterized by gradually increasing entropy deficit as momentum builds, followed by extreme readings near the actual top
Market Bottoms: Can show high entropy deficit during capitulation, followed by normalization
Range-Bound Markets: Typically display low and stable entropy deficit measurements
Trending Markets: Often show moderate entropy deficit that remains relatively consistent
Advantages Over Traditional Indicators
Forward-Looking: Identifies changing market structure before price action confirms it
Statistical Foundation: Based on robust mathematical principles rather than empirical patterns
Adaptability: Functions across different market regimes and asset classes
Noise Filtering: Focuses on meaningful structural changes rather than price fluctuations
Limitations
Not a Timing Tool: Signals market risk conditions, not precise entry/exit points
Parameter Sensitivity: Results can vary based on the chosen parameters
Historical Context: Requires some historical perspective to interpret effectively
Complementary Tool: Works best alongside other analysis methods
Enjoy :)
Swing High/Low with Liquidity Sweeps🧠 Overview
This indicator identifies swing highs and swing lows based on user-defined candle lengths and checks for liquidity sweeps—situations where the price breaks a previous swing level but then closes back inside, indicating a potential false breakout or stop hunt. It also supports visual labeling and alerts for these events.
⚙️ Inputs
Swing Length (must be odd number ≥ 3):
Determines how many candles are used to identify swing highs/lows. The central candle must be higher or lower than all neighbors within the range.
Example: If swingLength = 5, the central candle must be higher/lower than the 2 candles on both sides.
Sweep Lookback (bars):
Defines how many bars to look back for possible liquidity sweeps.
Show Swing Labels (checkbox):
Optionally display labels on the chart when a swing high or low is detected.
Show Sweep Labels (checkbox):
Optionally display labels on the chart when a liquidity sweep occurs.
🕯️ Swing Detection Logic
A Swing High is detected when the high of the central candle is greater than the highs of all candles around it (as per the defined length).
A Swing Low is detected when the low of the central candle is lower than the lows of surrounding candles.
Swing labels are placed slightly above (for highs) or below (for lows) the candle.
💧 Liquidity Sweep Logic
A Sweep High is triggered if:
The current high breaks above a previously detected swing high,
And then the candle closes below that swing high,
Within the configured lookback window.
A Sweep Low is triggered if:
The current low breaks below a previous swing low,
And then closes above it,
Within the lookback window.
These are often seen as stop hunts or fake breakouts.
🔔 Alerts
Sweep High Alert: Triggered when a sweep above a swing high occurs.
Sweep Low Alert: Triggered when a sweep below a swing low occurs.
You can use these to set up TradingView alerts to notify you of potential liquidity grabs.
📊 Use Cases
Identifying market structure shifts.
Spotting fake breakouts and potential reversals.
Assisting in smart money concepts and liquidity-based trading.
Supporting entry timing in trend continuation or reversal strategies.
Open Range Breakout (ORB) with Alerts
🚀 ChartsAlgo – Open Range Breakout (ORB) with Alerts
The Open Range Breakout (ORB) Indicator by ChartsAlg is designed for intraday traders looking to capitalize on price movements after the market’s opening range. This tool is especially effective for futures (MNQ, MES) and high-volatility stocks or crypto where initial volatility sets the tone for the session.
This indicator identifies a user-defined opening range window, plots the high/low lines of that range, and visually alerts users when price breaks out above or below the range — with options to customize breakout repetitions, background fill, and alerts.
💡 What is an Open Range Breakout (ORB)?
The opening range represents the high and low established during the first few minutes of the trading session — usually 15 or 30 minutes. Many intraday strategies are based on the idea that breaking out of this initial range often signals strong momentum and trend continuation.
Traders often enter:
Long when price breaks above the range high.
Short when price breaks below the range low.
⚙️ How It Works
You define a session window (e.g., 09:30–09:45 EST).
The indicator tracks the high and low during this time.
Once the session ends, the high and low become your range breakout levels.
The indicator then:
Plots lines for visual clarity
Optionally fills background between the range
Triggers breakout signals if price crosses the levels
Provides alerts when breakouts occur
🛠️ Settings Breakdown
🔹 Session Settings
Range Session: Set your preferred window (e.g., 0930–0945). Can be premarket, first 30 mins, or any custom time.
Time zone: Use "America/New York" for EST (default) or change to "GMT+0" for international traders.
🔹 Breakout Settings
Bullish Breakout Signals: Number of allowed breakout alerts above the range.
Bearish Breakout Signals: Number of allowed breakout alerts below the range.
This prevents repeated alerts once breakout has been confirmed.
🔹 Display Settings
Show Background Fill: Fills area between high/low of the range for easier visual analysis.
Show Breakout Signals: Triangle markers plotted on the chart when breakouts happen.
Only Show Today’s Range: Keeps the chart clean by showing only the most current day’s range.
🔹 Color Settings
Range High/Low Line Colors: Choose any color for clarity.
Range Fill Color: Customize the highlight area for your chart style.
📊 Chart Features
Range High/Low Lines: Automatically plotted after range session ends.
Visual Fill Box: Optional background shading between the opening range.
Triangle Breakout Markers: Appear at the breakout candle.
Alerts: Can be used with TradingView’s alert system to notify you of breakouts in real-time.
🔔 Alerts
Two alert conditions are built in:
Bullish Breakout: Triggers when price breaks above the high of the range.
Bearish Breakout: Triggers when price breaks below the low of the range.
Example Alert Message:
📈 “Bullish Breakout above Open Range on AAPL!”
To activate:
Click “🔔 Alerts” on TradingView.
Set condition to this script.
Choose “ORB Breakout Up” or “ORB Breakout Down”.
Choose alert frequency and notification method.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
ChartsAlgo tools are for informational and educational purposes only.
They are not financial advice or signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use at your own risk and always implement solid risk management.
By using this indicator, you agree that you are solely responsible for any trades or decisions made based on the information provided.
SIP Evaluator and Screener [Trendoscope®]The SIP Evaluator and Screener is a Pine Script indicator designed for TradingView to calculate and visualize Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) returns across multiple investment instruments. It is tailored for use in TradingView's screener, enabling users to evaluate SIP performance for various assets efficiently.
🎲 How SIP Works
A Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) is an investment strategy where a fixed amount is invested at regular intervals (e.g., monthly or weekly) into a financial instrument, such as stocks, mutual funds, or ETFs. The goal is to build wealth over time by leveraging the power of compounding and mitigating the impact of market volatility through disciplined, consistent investing. Here’s a breakdown of how SIPs function:
Regular Investments : In an SIP, an investor commits to investing a fixed sum at predefined intervals, regardless of market conditions. This consistency helps inculcate a habit of saving and investing.
Cost Averaging : By investing a fixed amount regularly, investors purchase more units when prices are low and fewer units when prices are high. This approach, known as dollar-cost averaging, reduces the average cost per unit over time and mitigates the risk of investing a large amount at a peak price.
Compounding Benefits : Returns generated from the invested amount (e.g., capital gains or dividends) are reinvested, leading to exponential growth over the long term. The longer the investment horizon, the greater the potential for compounding to amplify returns.
Dividend Reinvestment : In some SIPs, dividends received from the underlying asset can be reinvested to purchase additional units, further enhancing returns. Taxes on dividends, if applicable, may reduce the reinvested amount.
Flexibility and Accessibility : SIPs allow investors to start with small amounts, making them accessible to a wide range of individuals. They also offer flexibility in terms of investment frequency and the ability to adjust or pause contributions.
In the context of the SIP Evaluator and Screener , the script simulates an SIP by calculating the number of units purchased with each fixed investment, factoring in commissions, dividends, taxes and the chosen price reference (e.g., open, close, or average prices). It tracks the cumulative investment, equity value, and dividends over time, providing a clear picture of how an SIP would perform for a given instrument. This helps users understand the impact of regular investing and make informed decisions when comparing different assets in TradingView’s screener. It offers insights into key metrics such as total invested amount, dividends received, equity value, and the number of installments, making it a valuable resource for investors and traders interested in understanding long-term investment outcomes.
🎲 Key Features
Customizable Investment Parameters: Users can define the recurring investment amount, price reference (e.g., open, close, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4), and whether fractional quantities are allowed.
Commission Handling: Supports both fixed and percentage-based commission types, adjusting calculations accordingly.
Dividend Reinvestment: Optionally reinvests dividends after a user-specified period, with the ability to apply tax on dividends.
Time-Bound Analysis: Allows users to set a start year for the analysis, enabling historical performance evaluation.
Flexible Dividend Periods: Dividends can be evaluated based on bars, days, weeks, or months.
Visual Outputs: Plots key metrics like total invested amount, dividends, equity value, and remainder, with customizable display options for clarity in the data window and chart.
🎲 Using the script as an indicator on Tradingview Supercharts
In order to use the indicator on charts, do the following.
Load the instrument of your choice - Preferably a stable stocks, ETFs.
Chose monthly timeframe as lower timeframes are insignificant in this type of investment strategy
Load the indicator SIP Evaluator and Screener and set the input parameters as per your preference.
Indicator plots, investment value, dividends and equity on the chart.
🎲 Visualizations
Installments : Displays the number of SIP installments (gray line, visible in the data window).
Invested Amount : Shows the cumulative amount invested, excluding reinvested dividends (blue area plot).
Dividends : Tracks total dividends received (green area plot).
Equity : Represents the current market value of the investment based on the closing price (purple area plot).
Remainder : Indicates any uninvested cash after each installment (gray line, visible in the data window).
🎲 Deep dive into the settings
The SIP Evaluator and Screener offers a range of customizable settings to tailor the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) simulation to your preferences. Below is an explanation of each setting, its purpose, and how it impacts the analysis:
🎯 Duration
Start Year (Default: 2020) : Specifies the year from which the SIP calculations begin. When Start Year is enabled via the timebound option, the script only considers data from the specified year onward. This is useful for analyzing historical SIP performance over a defined period. If disabled, the script uses all available data.
Timebound (Default: False) : A toggle to enable or disable the Start Year restriction. When set to False, the SIP calculation starts from the earliest available data for the instrument.
🎯 Investment
Recurring Investment (Default: 1000.0) : The fixed amount invested in each SIP installment (e.g., $1000 per period). This represents the regular contribution to the SIP and directly influences the total invested amount and quantity purchased.
Allow Fractional Qty (Default: True) : When enabled, the script allows the purchase of fractional units (e.g., 2.35 shares). If disabled, only whole units are purchased (e.g., 2 shares), with any remaining funds carried forward as Remainder. This setting impacts the precision of investment allocation.
Price Reference (Default: OPEN): Determines the price used for purchasing units in each SIP installment. Options include:
OPEN : Uses the opening price of the bar.
CLOSE : Uses the closing price of the bar.
HL2 : Uses the average of the high and low prices.
HLC3 : Uses the average of the high, low, and close prices.
OHLC4 : Uses the average of the open, high, low, and close prices. This setting affects the cost basis of each purchase and, consequently, the total quantity and equity value.
🎯 Commission
Commission (Default: 3) : The commission charged per SIP installment, expressed as either a fixed amount (e.g., $3) or a percentage (e.g., 3% of the investment). This reduces the amount available for purchasing units.
Commission Type (Default: Fixed) : Specifies how the commission is calculated:
Fixed ($) : A flat fee is deducted per installment (e.g., $3).
Percentage (%) : A percentage of the investment amount is deducted as commission (e.g., 3% of $1000 = $30). This setting affects the net amount invested and the overall cost of the SIP.
🎯 Dividends
Apply Tax On Dividends (Default: False) : When enabled, a tax is applied to dividends before they are reinvested or recorded. The tax rate is set via the Dividend Tax setting.
Dividend Tax (Default: 47) : The percentage of tax deducted from dividends if Apply Tax On Dividends is enabled (e.g., 47% tax reduces a $100 dividend to $53). This reduces the amount available for reinvestment or accumulation.
Reinvest Dividends After (Default: True, 2) : When enabled, dividends received are reinvested to purchase additional units after a specified period (e.g., 2 units of time, defined by Dividends Availability). If disabled, dividends are tracked but not reinvested. Reinvestment increases the total quantity and equity over time.
Dividends Availability (Default: Bars) : Defines the time unit for evaluating when dividends are available for reinvestment. Options include:
Bars : Based on the number of chart bars.
Weeks : Based on weeks.
Months : Based on months (approximated as 30.5 days). This setting determines the timing of dividend reinvestment relative to the Reinvest Dividends After period.
🎯 How Settings Interact
These settings work together to simulate a realistic SIP. For example, a $1000 recurring investment with a 3% commission and fractional quantities enabled will calculate the number of units purchased at the chosen price reference after deducting the commission. If dividends are reinvested after 2 months with a 47% tax, the script fetches dividend data, applies the tax, and adds the net dividend to the investment amount for that period. The Start Year and Timebound settings ensure the analysis aligns with the desired timeframe, while the Dividends Availability setting fine-tunes dividend reinvestment timing.
By adjusting these settings, users can model different SIP scenarios, compare performance across instruments in TradingView’s screener, and gain insights into how commissions, dividends, and price references impact long-term returns.
🎲 Using the script with Pine Screener
The main purpose of developing this script is to use it with Tradingview Pine Screener so that multiple ETFs/Funds can be compared.
In order to use this as a screener, the following things needs to be done.
Add SIP Evaluator and Screener to your favourites (Required for it to be added in pine screener)
Create a watch list containing required instruments to compare
Open pine screener from Tradingview main menu Products -> Screeners -> Pine or simply load the URL - www.tradingview.com
Select the watchlist created from Watchlist dropdown.
Chose the SIP Evaluator and Screener from the "Choose Indicator" dropdown
Set timeframe to 1 month and update settings as required.
Press scan to display collected data on the screener.
🎲 Use Case
This indicator is ideal for educational purposes, allowing users to experiment with SIP strategies across different instruments. It can be applied in TradingView’s screener to compare SIP performance for stocks, ETFs, or other assets, helping users understand how factors like commissions, dividends, and price references impact returns over time.
WLSMA: fast approximation🙏🏻 Sup TV & @alexgrover
O(N) algocomplexity, just one loop inside. No, you can't do O(1) @ updates in moving window mode, only expanding window will allow that.
Now I have time series & stats models of my own creation, nowhere else available, just TV and my github for now, ain’t no legacy academic industry I always have fun about, but back in 2k20 when I consciously ain’t known much about quant, I remember seeing post by @alexgrover recreating Moving Regression Endpoint dropped on price chart (called LSMA here) as a linear filter combination of filters (yea yeah DSP terms) as 3WMA - 2SMA. Now it’s my time to do smth alike aye?
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This script is remake of my 1st degree WLSMA via linear filter combo. It’s much faster, we aint calculate moving regression per se, we just match its freq response. You can see it on the screen (WLSMAfa) almost perfectly matching the original one (WLSMA).
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While humans like to overfit, I fw generalizations. So your lovely WMA is actually just one case of a more general weight pattern: pow(len - i, e), where pow is the power function and e is the exponent itself. So:
- If e = 0, then we have SMA (every number in 0th power is one)
- If e = 1, we get WMA
- If e = 2, we get quadratic weights.
We can recreate WLSMA freq response then by combining 2 filters with e = 1 and e = 2.
This is still an approximation, even tho enormously precise for the tasks you’ve shared with me. Due to the non-linear nature of the thing it’s all we can do, and as window size grows, even this small discrepancy converges with true WLSMA value, so we’re all good. Pls don’t try to model this 0.00xxxx discrepancy, it’s not natural.
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DSP approach is unnatural for prices, but you can put this thing on volume delta and be happy, or on other metrics of yours, if for some reason u dont wanna estimate thresholds by fitting a distro.
All good TV
∞
P.S.: strangely, the first script made & dropped in the location in Saint P where my actual quant way has started ~5 years ago xD, very thankful
Support and Resistance Profile with Volatility ClusteringThe indicator begins by looking at recent volatility behavior in the market: it measures the average true range over your chosen “Length” and compares it to the average true range over ten times that period. When volatility over the short window is high relative to longer-term volatility, we mark that period as a “cluster.” As price moves through these clusters—whether in a quiet period or a sudden burst of activity—the script isolates each cluster and examines the sequence of closing prices within it.
Within every cluster, the algorithm next finds the points along the price path that matter most to a human eye, smoothing out minor wobbles and highlighting the peaks and valleys that define the cluster’s shape. It does this by drawing a straight line between the beginning and end of the cluster, then repeatedly snapping the single point that deviates most from that line back onto it and re-interpolating, until it has identified a fixed number of perceptually important points. Those points capture where price really turned or accelerated, stripping away noise so that you see the genuine memory-markers in each volatility episode.
Each of those important points inherits a “weight” based on the cluster’s normalized volatility—essentially how large the average true range in that cluster was relative to its average close. Over your “Main Length for Profile” window, every time one of these weighted points occurs at a particular price level, it adds to a running total in that level’s bin. At the end of the window you see a silhouette of boxes extending to the right of the chart: where boxes are wide, many important points (with high volatility weight) have happened there in the past; where boxes are thin or absent, price memory is light.
For a trader, the value of this profile lies in spotting zones where the market has repeatedly “remembered” price extremes during volatile episodes—those are areas where support or resistance is likely to be strongest. Conversely, gaps in the profile—price levels with little weighted history—suggest frictionless zones. If price enters such a gap, it may move swiftly until it encounters another region of heavy memory. You can use this in several ways: as a filter on breakouts and breakdowns (only trade through a gap when you see sufficient momentum), as a guide for scaling into positions (add when price enters a low-memory zone and tighten stops where memory boxes thicken), or to anticipate where price might pause or reverse (when it reaches a band of wide boxes). By turning raw volatility clusters into a human-readable map of price memory, this tool helps you see at a glance where the market is likely to push or pause—and plan entries, exits, and risk targets accordingly.
