MNQ Morning Indicator | Clean SignalsMNQ Morning Trading Indicator Summary
What It Does
This is a TradingView indicator designed for day trading MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100 futures) during morning sessions. It generates BUY and SELL signals only when multiple technical conditions align, helping traders identify high-probability trade setups.
Core Strategy
BUY Signal Requirements (All must be true):
✅ Price above VWAP (volume-weighted average price)
✅ Fast EMA (9) above Slow EMA (21) - uptrend confirmation
✅ Price above 15-minute 50 EMA - higher timeframe confirmation
✅ MACD histogram positive - momentum confirmation
✅ RSI above 55 - strength confirmation
✅ ADX above 25 - trending market (not choppy)
✅ Volume 1.5x above average - strong participation
SELL Signal (opposite conditions)
Key Features
🎯 Risk Management
Stop Loss: 2× ATR (Average True Range)
Take Profit 1: 2× ATR (1:2 risk-reward)
Take Profit 2: 3× ATR (1:3 risk-reward)
Dollar values: Calculates P&L based on MNQ's $2/point value
⏰ Session Filter
Default: 9:30 AM - 11:30 AM ET (customizable)
Safety feature: Avoids first 15 minutes (high volatility period)
Won't generate signals outside trading hours
🛡️ Signal Quality
Rates each signal: 🔥 STRONG, ⚡ MEDIUM, or ⚠️ WEAK
Requires minimum 15 bars between signals (prevents overtrading)
📊 Visual Dashboard
Shows real-time metrics:
ATR values
ADX (trend strength)
RSI (momentum)
Market condition (TREND/CHOP)
Session status
Volume status
Signal cooldown timer
Visual Elements
📈 VWAP with standard deviation bands (1σ, 2σ, 3σ)
📉 Multiple EMAs with trend-based coloring
🟢/🔴 Buy/Sell arrows on chart
📋 Detailed trade labels showing entry, SL, TPs, and risk-reward ratios
🎨 Background highlighting for market conditions
Safety Features
Cooldown period between signals
Session restrictions (no trading outside set hours)
First 15-minute avoidance (post-open volatility)
Multi-confirmation requirement (all 7 conditions must align)
Trend filter (ADX minimum to avoid choppy markets)
Best For
Day traders focused on morning sessions
MNQ futures traders
Traders who prefer systematic, rule-based entries
Those wanting pre-calculated risk management levels
Customization
All parameters are adjustable:
EMA periods
MACD settings
RSI thresholds
ADX minimum
ATR multipliers
Session times
Visual preferences
This indicator is designed to be conservative — it waits for strong confirmation before signaling, which means fewer but potentially higher-quality trades.
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Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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dabilThe strategy is probably to go short or long with the trend depending on the case, but if all time units 1 minute then 3 minutes then 5 minutes then 15 minutes then 1 hour all show the same direction, but first the 1 hour must be bullish in which the 1 hour candle closes above the previous one, for example if the trend is bearish then the market wants to change direction, then a 1 hour bullish close must then be followed by a 1 hour bearish close below the bullish candle, then another bullish candle must shoot above the previous bullish candle, then 15 minutes also shoot above the previous 15 bullish candles, then 1 and 2...3.5. Then I can rise with the market by only covering the last 15 bullish candles with my stop loss, if my SL is 50 pips then I want 100 pips and then I'm out.
Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levelsYelober – Market Internals + Key Levels is a focused intraday trading tool that helps you spot high-probability price direction by anchoring decisions to structure that matters: yesterday’s RTH High/Low, today’s pre-market High/Low, and a fast Value Area/POC from the prior session. Paired with a compact market internals dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ UVOL vs. DVOL ratios, VOLD slopes, TICK/TICKQ momentum, and optional VIX trend), it gives you a real-time read on breadth so you can choose which direction to trade, when to enter (breaks, retests, or fades at PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC), and how to plan exits as internals confirm or deteriorate. On top of these intraday decision benefits, it also allows traders—in a very subtle but powerful way—to keep an eye on the VIX and immediately recognize significant spikes or sharp decreases that should be factored in before entering a trade, or used as a quick signal to modify an existing position. In short: clear levels for the chart, live internals for the context, and a smarter, rules-based path to execution.
# Yelober – Market Internals + Key Levels
*A TradingView indicator for session key levels + real‑time market internals (NYSE/NASDAQ TICK, UVOL/DVOL/VOLD, and VIX).*
**Script name in Pine:** `Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levels` (Pine v6)
---
## 1) What this indicator does
**Purpose:** Help intraday traders quickly find high‑probability reaction zones and read market internals momentum without switching charts. It overlays yesterday/today’s **automatic price levels** on your active chart and shows a **market breadth table** that summarizes NYSE/NASDAQ buying pressure and TICK direction, with an optional VIX trend read.
### Key features at a glance
* **Automatic Price Levels (overlay on chart)**
* Yesterday’s High/Low of Day (**yHoD**, **yLoD**)
* Extended Hours High/Low (**yEHH**, **yEHL**) across yesterday AH + today pre‑market
* Today’s Pre‑Market High/Low (**PMH**, **PML**)
* Yesterday’s **Value Area High/Low** (**VAH/VAL**) and **Point of Control (POC)** computed from a volume profile of yesterday’s **regular session**
* Smart de‑duplication:
* Shows **only the higher** of (yEHH vs PMH) and **only the lower** of (yEHL vs PML) to avoid redundant bands
* **Market Breadth Table (on‑chart table)**
* **NYSE ratio** = UVOL/DVOL (signed) with **VOLD slope** from session open
* **NASDAQ ratio** = UVOLQ/DVOLQ (signed) with **VOLDQ slope** from session open
* **TICK** and **TICKQ**: live cumulative ratio and short‑term slope
* **VIX** (optional): current value + slope over a configurable lookback/timeframe
* Color‑coded trends with sensible thresholds and optional normalization
---
## 2) How to use it (trader workflow)
1. **Mark your reaction zones**
* Watch **yHoD/yLoD**, **PMH/PML**, and **VAH/VAL/POC** for first touches, break/retest, and failure tests.
* Expect increased responsiveness when multiple levels cluster (e.g., PMH ≈ VAH ≈ daily pivot).
2. **Read the breadth panel for context**
* **NYSE/NASDAQ ratio** (>1 = more up‑volume than down‑volume; <−1 = down‑dominant). Strong green across both favors long setups; red favors short setups.
* **VOLD slopes** (NYSE & NASDAQ): positive and accelerating → broadening participation; negative → persistent pressure.
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative ratio and **slope arrows** (↗ / ↘ / →). Use the slope to gauge **near‑term thrust or fade**.
* **VIX slope**: rising VIX (red) often coincides with risk‑off; falling VIX (green) with risk‑on.
3. **Confluence = higher confidence**
* Example: Price reclaims **PMH** while **NYSE/NASDAQ ratios** print green and **TICK slopes** point ↗ — consider break‑and‑go; if VIX slope is ↘, that adds risk‑on confidence.
* Example: Price rejects **VAH** while **VOLD slopes** roll negative and VIX ↗ — consider fade/reversal.
4. **Risk management**
* Place stops just beyond key levels tested; if breadth flips, tighten or exit.
> **Timeframes:** Works best on 1–15m charts for intraday. Value Area is computed from **yesterday’s RTH**; choose a smaller calculation timeframe (e.g., 5–15m) for stable profiles.
---
## 3) Inputs & settings (what each option controls)
### Global Style
* **Enable all automatic price levels**: master toggle for yHoD/yLoD, yEHH/yEHL, PMH/PML, VAH/VAL/POC.
* **Line style/width**: applies to all drawn levels.
* **Label size/style** and **label color linking**: use the same color as the line or override with a global label color.
* **Maximum bars lookback**: how far the script scans to build yesterday metrics (performance‑sensitive).
### Value Area / Volume Profile
* **Enable Value Area calculations** *(on by default)*: computes yesterday’s **POC**, **VAH**, **VAL** from a simplified intraday volume profile built from yesterday’s **regular session bars**.
* **Max Volume Profile Points** *(default 50)*: lower values = faster; higher = more precise.
* **Value Area Calculation Timeframe** *(default 15)*: the security timeframe used when collecting yesterday’s highs/lows/volumes.
### Individual Level Toggles & Colors
* **yHoD / yLoD** (yesterday high/low)
* **yEHH / yEHL** (yesterday AH + today pre‑market extremes)
* **PMH / PML** (today pre‑market extremes)
* **VAH / VAL / POC** (yesterday RTH value area + point of control)
### Market Breadth Panel
* **Show NYSE / NASDAQ / VIX**: choose which series to display in the table.
* **Table Position / Size / Background Color**: UI placement and legibility.
* **Slope Averaging Periods** *(default 5)*: number of recent TICK/TICKQ ratio points used in slope calculation.
* **Candles for Rate** *(default 10)* & **Normalize Rate**: VIX slope calculation as % change between `now` and `n` candles ago; normalize divides by `n`.
* **VIX Timeframe**: optionally compute VIX on a higher TF (e.g., 15, 30, 60) for a smoother regime read.
* **Volume Normalization** (NYSE & NASDAQ): display VOLD slopes scaled to `tens/thousands/millions/10th millions` for readable magnitudes; color thresholds adapt to your choice.
---
## 4) Data sources & definitions
* **UVOL/VOLD (NYSE)** and **UVOLQ/DVOLQ/VOLDQ (NASDAQ)** via `request.security()`
* **Ratio** = `UVOL/DVOL` (signed; negative when down‑volume dominates)
* **VOLD slope** ≈ `(VOLD_now − VOLD_open) / bars_since_open`, then normalized per your setting
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative sum of prints this session with **positives vs negatives ratio**, plus a simple linear regression **slope** of the last `N` ratio values
* **VIX**: value and slope across a user‑selected timeframe and lookback
* **Sessions (EST/EDT)**
* **Regular:** 09:30–16:00
* **Pre‑Market:** 04:00–09:30
* **After Hours:** 16:00–20:00
* **Extended‑hours extremes** combine **yesterday AH** + **today PM**
> **Note:** All session checks are done with TradingView’s `time(…,"America/New_York")` context. If your broker’s RTH differs (e.g., futures), adjust expectations accordingly.
---
## 5) How the algorithms work (plain English)
### A) Key Levels
* **Yesterday’s RTH High/Low**: scans yesterday’s bars within 09:30–16:00 and records the extremes + bar indices.
* **Extended Hours**: scans yesterday AH and today PM to get **yEHH/yEHL**. Script shows **either yEHH or PMH** (whichever is **higher**) and **either yEHL or PML** (whichever is **lower**) to avoid duplicate bands stacked together.
* **Value Area & POC (RTH only)**
* Build a coarse volume profile with `Max Volume Profile Points` buckets across the price range formed by yesterday’s RTH bars.
* Distribute each bar’s volume uniformly across the buckets it spans (fast approximation to keep Pine within execution limits).
* **POC** = bucket with max volume. **VA** expands from POC outward until **70%** of cumulative volume is enclosed → yields **VAH/VAL**.
### B) Market Breadth Table
* **NYSE/NASDAQ Ratio**: signed UVOL/DVOL with basic coloring.
* **VOLD Slopes**: from session open to current, normalized to human‑readable units; colors flip green/red based on thresholds that map to your normalization setting (e.g., ±2M for NYSE, ±3.5×10M for NASDAQ).
* **TICK/TICKQ Slope**: linear regression over the last `N` ratio points → **↗ / → / ↘** with the rounded slope value.
* **VIX Slope**: % change between now and `n` candles ago (optionally divided by `n`). Red when rising beyond threshold; green when falling.
---
## 6) Recommended presets
* **Stocks (liquid, intraday)**
* Value Area **ON**, `Max Volume Points` = **40–60**, **Timeframe** = **5–15**
* Breadth: show **NYSE & NASDAQ & VIX**, `Slope periods` = **5–8**, `Candles for rate` = **10–20**, **Normalize VIX** = **ON**
* **Index futures / very high‑volume symbols**
* If you see Pine timeouts, set `Max Volume Points` = **20–40** or temporarily **disable Value Area**.
* Keep breadth panel **ON** (it’s light). Consider **VIX timeframe = 15/30** for regime clarity.
---
## 7) Tips, edge cases & performance
* **Performance:** The volume profile is capped (`maxBarsToProcess ≤ 500` and bucketed) to keep it responsive. If you experience slowdowns, reduce `Max Volume Points`, `Maximum bars lookback`, or disable Value Area.
* **Redundant lines:** The script **intentionally suppresses** PMH/PML when yEHH/yEHL are more extreme, and vice‑versa.
* **Label visibility:** Use `Label style = none` if you only want clean lines and read values from the right‑end labels.
* **Futures/RTH differences:** Value Area is from **yesterday’s RTH** only; for 24h instruments the RTH period may not reflect overnight structure.
* **Session transitions:** PMH/PML tracking stops as soon as RTH starts; values persist as static levels for the session.
---
## 8) Known limitations
* Uses public TradingView symbols: `UVOL`, `VOLD`, `UVOLQ`, `DVOLQ`, `VOLDQ`, `TICK`, `TICKQ`, `VIX`. If your data plan or region limits any symbol, the corresponding table rows may show `na`.
* The VA/POC approximation assumes uniform distribution of each bar’s volume across its high–low. That’s fast but not a tick‑level profile.
* Works best on US equities with standard NY session; alternative sessions may need code changes.
---
## 9) Troubleshooting
* **“Script is too slow / timed out”** → Lower `Max Volume Points`, lower `Maximum bars lookback`, or toggle **OFF** `Enable Value Area calculations` for that instrument.
* **Missing breadth values** → Ensure the symbols above load on your account; try reloading chart or switching timeframes once.
* **Overlapping labels** → Set `Label style = none` or reduce label size.
---
## 10) Version / license / contribution
* **Version:** Initial public release (Pine v6).
* **Author:** © yelober
* **License:** Free for community use and enhancement. Please keep author credit.
* **Contributing:** Open PRs/ideas: presets, alert conditions, multi‑day VA composites, optional mid‑value (`(VAH+VAL)/2`), session filter for futures, and alertable state machine for breadth regime transitions.
---
## 11) Quick start (TL;DR)
1. Add the indicator and **keep default settings**.
2. Trade **reactions** at yHoD/yLoD/PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC.
3. Use the **breadth table**: look for **green ratios + ↗ slopes** (risk‑on) or **red ratios + ↘ slopes** (risk‑off). Check **VIX** slope for confirmation.
4. Manage risk around levels; when breadth flips against you, tighten or exit.
---
### Changelog (public)
* **v1.0:** First community release with automatic RTH levels, VA/POC approximation, breadth dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ/TICK/TICKQ/VIX) with normalization and adaptive color thresholds.
ST-Stochastic DashboardST-Stochastic Dashboard: User Manual & Functionality
1. Introduction
The ST-Stochastic Dashboard is a comprehensive tool designed for traders who utilize the Stochastic Oscillator. It combines two key features into a single indicator:
A standard, fully customizable Stochastic Oscillator plotted directly on your chart.
A powerful Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Dashboard that shows the status of the Stochastic %K value across three different timeframes of your choice.
This allows you to analyze momentum on your current timeframe while simultaneously monitoring for confluence or divergence on higher or lower timeframes, all without leaving your chart.
Disclaimer: In accordance with TradingView's House Rules, this document describes the technical functionality of the indicator. It is not financial advice. The indicator provides data based on user-defined parameters; all trading decisions are the sole responsibility of the user. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
2. How It Works (Functionality)
The indicator is divided into two main components:
A. The Main Stochastic Indicator (Chart Pane)
This is the visual representation of the Stochastic Oscillator for the chart's current timeframe.
%K Line (Blue): This is the main line of the oscillator. It shows the current closing price in relation to the high-low range over a user-defined period. A high value means the price is closing near the top of its recent range; a low value means it's closing near the bottom.
%D Line (Black): This is the signal line, which is a moving average of the %K line. It is used to smooth out the %K line and generate trading signals.
Overbought Zone (Red Area): By default, this zone is above the 75 level. When the Stochastic lines are in this area, it indicates that the asset may be "overbought," meaning the price is trading near the peak of its recent price range.
Oversold Zone (Blue Area): By default, this zone is below the 25 level. When the Stochastic lines are in this area, it indicates that the asset may be "oversold," meaning the price is trading near the bottom of its recent price range.
Crossover Signals:
Buy Signal (Blue Up Triangle): A blue triangle appears below the candles when the %K line crosses above the Oversold line (e.g., from 24 to 26). This suggests a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
Sell Signal (Red Down Triangle): A red triangle appears above the candles when the %K line crosses below the Overbought line (e.g., from 76 to 74). This suggests a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
B. The Multi-Timeframe Dashboard (Table on Chart)
This is the informational table that appears on your chart. Its purpose is to give you a quick, at-a-glance summary of the Stochastic's condition on other timeframes.
Function: The script uses TradingView's request.security() function to pull the %K value from three other timeframes that you specify in the settings.
Efficiency: The table is designed to update only on the last (most recent) bar (barstate.islast) to ensure the script runs efficiently and does not slow down your chart.
Columns:
Timeframe: Displays the timeframe you have selected (e.g., '5', '15', '60').
Stoch %K: Shows the current numerical value of the %K line for that specific timeframe, rounded to two decimal places.
Status: Interprets the %K value and displays a clear status:
OVERBOUGHT (Red Background): The %K value is above the "Upper Line" setting.
OVERSOLD (Blue Background): The %K value is below the "Lower Line" setting.
NEUTRAL (Black/Dark Background): The %K value is between the Overbought and Oversold levels.
3. Settings / Parameters in Detail
You can access these settings by clicking the "Settings" (cogwheel) icon on the indicator name.
Stochastic Settings
This group controls the behavior and appearance of the main Stochastic indicator plotted in the pane.
Stochastic Period (length)
Description: This is the lookback period used to calculate the Stochastic Oscillator. It defines the number of past bars to consider for the high-low range.
Default: 9
%K Smoothing (smoothK)
Description: This is the moving average period used to smooth the raw Stochastic value, creating the %K line. A higher value results in a smoother, less sensitive line.
Default: 3
%D Smoothing (smoothD)
Description: This is the moving average period applied to the %K line to create the %D (signal) line. A higher value creates a smoother signal line that lags further behind the %K line.
Default: 6
Lower Line (Oversold) (ul)
Description: This sets the threshold for the oversold condition. When the %K line is below this value, the dashboard will show "OVERSOLD". It is also the level the %K line must cross above to trigger a Buy Signal triangle.
Default: 25
Upper Line (Overbought) (ll)
Description: This sets the threshold for the overbought condition. When the %K line is above this value, the dashboard will show "OVERBOUGHT". It is also the level the %K line must cross below to trigger a Sell Signal triangle.
Default: 75
Dashboard Settings
This group controls the data and appearance of the multi-timeframe table.
Timeframe 1 (tf1)
Description: The first timeframe to be displayed in the dashboard.
Default: 5 (5 minutes)
Timeframe 2 (tf2)
Description: The second timeframe to be displayed in the dashboard.
Default: 15 (15 minutes)
Timeframe 3 (tf3)
Description: The third timeframe to be displayed in the dashboard.
Default: 60 (1 hour)
Dashboard Position (table_pos)
Description: Allows you to select where the dashboard table will appear on your chart.
Options: top_right, top_left, bottom_right, bottom_left
Default: bottom_right
4. How to Use & Interpret
Configuration: Adjust the Stochastic Settings to match your trading strategy. The default values (9, 3, 6) are common, but feel free to experiment. Set the Dashboard Settings to the timeframes that are most relevant to your analysis (e.g., your entry timeframe, a medium-term timeframe, and a long-term trend timeframe).
Analysis with the Dashboard: The primary strength of this tool is confluence. Look for situations where multiple timeframes align. For example:
If the dashboard shows OVERSOLD on the 15-minute, 60-minute, and your current 5-minute chart, a subsequent Buy Signal on your 5-minute chart may carry more weight.
Conversely, if your 5-minute chart shows OVERSOLD but the 60-minute chart is strongly OVERBOUGHT, it could indicate that you are looking at a minor pullback in a larger downtrend.
Interpreting States:
Overbought is not an automatic "sell" signal. It simply means momentum has been strong to the upside, and the price is near its recent peak. It could signal a potential reversal, but the price can also remain overbought for extended periods in a strong uptrend.
Oversold is not an automatic "buy" signal. It means momentum has been strong to the downside. While it can signal a potential bounce, prices can remain oversold for a long time in a strong downtrend.
Use the signals and dashboard states as a source of information to complement your overall trading strategy, which should include other forms of analysis such as price action, support/resistance levels, or other indicators.
Trading Macro Windows by BW v2
Trading Macros by BW: Integrating ICT Concepts for Session Analysis
This indicator combines two key Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concepts—Change in State of Delivery (CISD) or Inverted Fair Value Gap (IFVG) signals with Macro Time Windows—to provide a unified tool for analyzing intraday price action, particularly during Pacific Time (PT) sessions. Rather than simply merging existing scripts, this integration creates a cohesive visual framework that highlights how macro consolidation periods interact with potential reversal or continuation signals like CISD or IFVG. By overlaying macro candle styling and borders on the chart alongside selectable signal lines, traders can better contextualize setups within ICT's macro narrative, where price often manipulates liquidity during these windows before displacing toward higher-timeframe objectives.
Core Components and How They Work Together:
Macro Time Windows (Inspired by ICT's Macro Periods):
ICT emphasizes "macro" as 30-minute windows (e.g., 06:45–07:15 PT, 07:45–08:15 PT, up to 11:45–12:15 PT) where price tends to consolidate, sweep liquidity, or form key structures like Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). These periods set the stage for the session's directional bias.
The indicator styles candles within these windows using a user-defined color for wicks, borders, and bodies (translucent for visibility). This visual emphasis helps traders focus on activity inside macros, where reversals or continuations often originate.
Borders are drawn as vertical lines at the start and end of each window (with a +5 minute buffer to capture related activity), using a dotted style by default. This creates a "study zone" that encapsulates macro events, allowing traders to assess if price is respecting or violating these zones in alignment with broader ICT models like the Power of 3 (AMD cycle).
Toggle: "Macro Candles Enabled" (default: true) – Turn off to disable styling and borders if focusing solely on signals.
CISD or IFVG Signals (Selectable Mode):
Mode Selection: Choose between "Change in the State of Delivery" (CISD) or "IFVG" (default: IFVG). Both detect shifts in market delivery during specific 30-minute slices (15–45 or 17–45 minutes past the hour in PT sessions).
CISD Mode: Based on ICT's definition of a sudden directional shift, this identifies aggressive displacements after sweeping recent highs/lows. It uses a rolling reference high/low over 6 bars, checks for sweeps (penetrating by at least 2 ticks in the last 2-3 bars), reclamation (closing beyond the reference with at least 50% body), and displacement (50% of prior range or an immediate FVG of 6+ ticks). Signals plot a horizontal line from the close, extending 24 bars right, labeled "CISD."
IFVG Mode: Focuses on Inverted Fair Value Gaps, where a bullish FVG (low > high by 13+ ticks) forms but is inverted (closed below) in the same slice, signaling bearish intent (or vice versa). This targets violations against opposing liquidity, often leading to raids on external ranges. Signals plot similarly, labeled "IFVG."
Shared Logic: Both modes enforce a 55-bar cooldown to prevent clustering, operate only during PT sessions (06:30–13:00), and use tick-based thresholds for precision across instruments. The integration with macros allows traders to see if signals occur within or at the edges of macro windows, enhancing confirmation—for example, a CISD inside a macro might indicate a manipulated reversal toward the session's true objective.
Toggle: "Signals Enabled" (default: true) – Turn off to hide all signal lines and labels, isolating the macro visualization.
How Components Interact:
Macro windows provide the "narrative context" (consolidation/manipulation), while CISD/IFVG signals detect the "delivery shift" (displacement). Together, they form a mashup that justifies publication: isolated signals can be noisy, but when filtered by macro periods, they align with ICT's session model. For instance, an IFVG inversion during a macro might confirm a liquidity sweep before targeting PD arrays or order blocks.
No external dependencies; all calculations are self-contained using Pine's built-in functions like ta.highest/lowest for references and time-based sessions for windows.
Usage Guidelines:
Apply to intraday charts (e.g., 1-5 min) or stocks during PT hours.
Look for confluence: A bull IFVG signal post-macro low sweep might target the next macro high or daily bias.
Customize colors/styles for signals (solid/dashed/dotted lines) and macros to suit your chart.
Backtest in replay mode to observe how macros frame signals—e.g., price often respects macro borders as S/R.
Limitations: Timezone-fixed to PT (America/Los_Angeles); signals are directional hints, not trade entries. Combine with ICT tools like order blocks or liquidity pools for full setups.
This script draws from community ICT implementations but refines them into a single, purpose-built tool for macro-driven trading, reducing chart clutter while emphasizing interconnected concepts. Feedback welcome!
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Options Strategy V2.0📈 Options Strategy V2.0 – Intraday Reversal-Resilient Momentum System
Overview:
This strategy is designed specifically for intraday SPY, TSLA, MSFT, etc. options trading (0DTE or 1DTE), using high-probability signals derived from a confluence of technical indicators: EMA crossovers, RSI thresholds, ATR-based risk control, and volume spikes. The strategy aims to capture strong directional moves while avoiding overtrading, thanks to a built-in cooldown logic and optional time/session filters.
⚙️ Core Concept
The strategy executes trades only in the direction of the prevailing trend, determined by short- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Entry signals are generated when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms momentum in the direction of the trend, and volume spikes suggest institutional activity.
To increase adaptability and user control, it includes a highly customizable parameter set for both long and short entries independently.
📌 Key Features
✅ Trend-Following Logic
Long entries are only allowed when EMA(short) > EMA(long)
Short entries are only allowed when EMA(short) < EMA(long)
✅ RSI Confirmation
Long: Requires RSI crossover above a configurable threshold
Short: Requires RSI crossunder below a configurable threshold
Optional rejection filters: Entry blocked above/below specific RSI extremes
✅ Volume Spike Filter
Confirms institutional participation by comparing current volume to an average multiplied by a user-defined factor.
✅ ATR-Based Risk Management
Both Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) are dynamically calculated using ATR × a multiplier.
TP/SL ratio is fully configurable.
✅ Cooldown Control
After every trade, the system waits for a set number of bars before allowing new entries.
This prevents overtrading and increases signal quality.
Optionally, cooldown is ignored for reversal trades, ensuring the system can react immediately to a confirmed trend change.
✅ Candle Body Filter (Noise Control)
Avoids trades on candles with too small bodies relative to wicks (often noise or indecision candles).
✅ VWAP Confirmation (Optional)
Ensures price is trading above VWAP for long entries, or below for short entries.
✅ Time & Session Filters
Trades only during regular market hours (09:30–16:00 EST).
No-trade zone (e.g., 14:15–15:45 EST) to avoid low-liquidity traps or late-day whipsaws.
✅ End-of-Day Auto Close
All open positions are force-closed at 15:55 EST, protecting against overnight risk (especially relevant for 0DTE options).
📊 Visual Aids
EMA plots show trend direction
VWAP line provides real-time mean-reversion context
Stop Loss and Take Profit lines appear dynamically with each trade
Alerts notify of entry signals and exit triggers
🔧 Customization Panel
Nearly every element of the strategy can be tailored:
EMA lengths (short and long, for both sides)
RSI thresholds and length
ATR length, SL multiplier, and TP/SL ratio
Volume spike sensitivity
Minimum EMA distance filter
Candle body ratio filter
Session restrictions
Cooldown logic (duration + reversal exception)
This makes the strategy extremely versatile, allowing both conservative and aggressive configurations depending on the trader’s profile and the market context.
📌 Example Use Case: SPY Options (0DTE or 1DTE)
This system was designed and tested specifically for SPY and other intraday options trading, where:
Delta is around 0.50 or higher
Trades are short-lived (often 1–5 candles)
You aim to trade 1–3 signals per day, filtering out weak entries
🚫 Important Notes
It is not a scalping strategy; it relies on confirmed breakouts with trend support
No pyramiding or re-entries without cooldown to preserve risk integrity
Should be used with real-time alerts and manual broker execution
📈 Alerts Included
📈 Long Entry Signal
📉 Short Entry Signal
⚠️ Auto-closed all positions at 15:55 EST
✅ Proven Settings – Real Trades + Backtest Results
The current version of the strategy includes the optimal settings I’ve arrived at through extensive backtesting, as well as 3 months of real trading with consistent profitability. These results reflect real-world execution under live market conditions using 0DTE SPY options, with disciplined trade management and risk control.
🧠 Final Thoughts
Options Strategy V2.0 is a robust, highly tunable intraday strategy that blends momentum, trend-following, and volume confirmation. It is ideal for disciplined traders focused on SPY or other 0DTE/1DTE options, and it includes guardrails to reduce false signals and improve execution timing.
Perfect for those who seek precision, flexibility, and risk-defined setups—not blind automation.
TimezoneFormatIANAUTCLibrary "TimezoneFormatIANAUTC"
Provides either the full IANA timezone identifier or the corresponding UTC offset for TradingView’s built-in variables and functions.
tz(_tzname, _format)
Parameters:
_tzname (string) : "London", "New York", "Istanbul", "+1:00", "-03:00" etc.
_format (string) : "IANA" or "UTC"
Returns: "Europe/London", "America/New York", "UTC+1:00"
Example Code
import ARrowofTime/TimezoneFormatIANAUTC/1 as libtz
sesTZInput = input.string(defval = "Singapore", title = "Timezone")
example1 = libtz.tz("London", "IANA") // Return Europe/London
example2 = libtz.tz("London", "UTC") // Return UTC+1:00
example3 = libtz.tz("UTC+5", "IANA") // Return UTC+5:00
example4 = libtz.tz("UTC+4:30", "UTC") // Return UTC+4:30
example5 = libtz.tz(sesTZInput, "IANA") // Return Asia/Singapore
example6 = libtz.tz(sesTZInput, "UTC") // Return UTC+8:00
sesTime1 = time("","1300-1700", example1) // returns the UNIX time of the current bar in session time or na
sesTime2 = time("","1300-1700", example2) // returns the UNIX time of the current bar in session time or na
sesTime3 = time("","1300-1700", example3) // returns the UNIX time of the current bar in session time or na
sesTime4 = time("","1300-1700", example4) // returns the UNIX time of the current bar in session time or na
sesTime5 = time("","1300-1700", example5) // returns the UNIX time of the current bar in session time or na
sesTime6 = time("","1300-1700", example6) // returns the UNIX time of the current bar in session time or na
Parameter Format Guide
This section explains how to properly format the parameters for the tz(_tzname, _format) function.
_tzname (string) must be either;
A valid timezone name exactly as it appears in the chart’s lower-right corner (e.g. New York, London).
A valid UTC offset in ±H:MM or ±HH:MM format. Hours: 0–14 (zero-padded or not, e.g. +1:30, +01:30, -0:00). Minutes: Must be 00, 15, 30, or 45
examples;
"New York" → ✅ Valid chart label
"London" → ✅ Valid chart label
"Berlin" → ✅ Valid chart label
"America/New York" → ❌ Invalid chart label. (Use "New York" instead)
"+1:30" → ✅ Valid offset with single-digit hour
"+01:30" → ✅ Valid offset with zero-padded hour
"-05:00" → ✅ Valid negative offset
"-0:00" → ✅ Valid zero offset
"+1:1" → ❌ Invalid (minute must be 00, 15, 30, or 45)
"+2:50" → ❌ Invalid (minute must be 00, 15, 30, or 45)
"+15:00" → ❌ Invalid (hour must be 14 or below)
_tztype (string) must be either;
"IANA" → returns full IANA timezone identifier (e.g. "Europe/London"). When a time function call uses an IANA time zone identifier for its timezone argument, its calculations adjust automatically for historical and future changes to the specified region’s observed time, such as daylight saving time (DST) and updates to time zone boundaries, instead of using a fixed offset from UTC.
"UTC" → returns UTC offset string (e.g. "UTC+01:00")
Relative Measured Volatility (RMV)RMV • Volume-Sensitive Consolidation Indicator
A lightweight Pine Script that highlights true low-volatility, low-volume bars in a single squeeze measure.
What it does
Calculates each bar’s raw High-Low range.
Down-weights bars where volume is below its 30-day average, emphasizing genuine quiet periods.
Normalizes the result over the prior 15 bars (excluding the current bar), scaling from 0 (tightest) to 100 (most volatile).
Draws the series as a step plot, shades true “tight” bars below the user threshold, and marks sustained squeezes with a small arrow.
Key inputs
Lookback (bars): Number of bars to use for normalization (default 15).
Tight Threshold: RMV value under which a bar is considered squeezed (default 15).
Volume SMA Period: Period for the volume moving average benchmark (default 30).
How it works
Raw range: barRange = high - low
Volume ratio: volRatio = min(volume / sma(volume,30), 1)
Weighted range: vwRange = barRange * volRatio
Rolling min/max (prior 15 bars): exclude today so a new low immediately registers a 0.
Normalize: rmv = clamp(100 * (vwRange - min) / (max - min), 0, 100)
Visualization & signals
Step line for exact bar-by-bar values.
Shaded background when RMV < threshold.
Consecutive-bar filter ensures arrows only appear when tightness lasts at least two bars, cutting noise.
Why use it
Quickly spot consolidation zones that combine narrow price action with genuine dry volume—ideal for swing entries ahead of breakouts.
Opening Range Breakout🧭 Overview
The Open Range Breakout (ORB) indicator is designed to capture and display the initial price range of the trading day (typically the first 15 minutes), and help traders identify breakout opportunities beyond this range. This is a popular strategy among intraday and momentum traders.
🔧 Features
📊 ORB High/Low Lines
Plots horizontal lines for the session’s high and low
🟩 Breakout Zones
Background highlights when price breaks above or below the range
🏷️ Breakout Labels
Text labels marking breakout events
🧭 Session Control
Customizable session input (default: 09:15–09:30 IST)
📍 ORB Line Labels
Text labels anchored to the ORB high and low lines (aligned right)
🔔 Alerts
Configurable alerts for breakout events
⚙️ Adjustable Settings
Show/hide background, labels, session window, etc.
⏱️ Session Logic
• The ORB range is calculated during a defined session window (default: 09:15–09:30).
• During this window, the highest high and lowest low are recorded as ORB High and ORB Low.
📈 Breakout Detection
• Breakout Above: Triggered when price crosses above the ORB High.
• Breakout Below: Triggered when price crosses below the ORB Low.
• Each breakout can trigger:
• A background highlight (green/red)
• A text label (“Breakout ↑” / “Breakout ↓”)
• An optional alert
🔔 Alerts
Two built-in alert conditions:
1. Breakout Above ORB High
• Message: "🔼 Price broke above ORB High: {{close}}"
2. Breakout Below ORB Low
• Message: "🔽 Price broke below ORB Low: {{close}}"
You can create alerts in TradingView by selecting these from the Add Alert window.
📌 Best Use Cases
• Intraday momentum trading
• Breakout and scalping strategies
• First 15-minute range traders (NSE, BSE markets)
NY ORB + Fakeout Detector🗽 NY ORB + Fakeout Detector
This indicator automatically plots the New York Opening Range (ORB) based on the first 15 minutes of the NY session (15:30–15:45 CEST / 13:30–13:45 UTC) and detects potential fakeouts (false breakouts).
🔍 Key Features:
✅ Plots ORB high and low based on the 15-minute NY open range
✅ Automatically detects fake breakouts (price wicks beyond the box but closes back inside)
✅ Visual markers:
🔺 "Fake ↑" if a fake breakout occurs above the range
🔻 "Fake ↓" if a fake breakout occurs below the range
✅ Gray background highlights the ORB session window
✅ Designed for scalping and short-term breakout strategies
🧠 Best For:
Intraday traders looking for NY volatility setups
Scalpers using ORB-based entries
Traders seeking early-session fakeout traps to avoid false signals
Those combining with EMA 12/21, volume, or other confluence tools
Time HighlightHow This Works:
Time Conversion: The script converts the current time to HHMM format (e.g., 9:16 becomes 916) for easy comparison.
Timeframe Detection: It checks the current chart's timeframe:
For 1-minute charts: Exactly matches the target times
For 5-minute charts: Checks if the target time falls within the 5-minute window
For 15-minute charts: Checks if the target time falls within the 15-minute window
Highlighting: When the condition is met, it highlights the candle with a semi-transparent yellow color.
Note:
The script will work on 1-minute, 5-minute, and 15-minute timeframes only
The highlight appears on the candle that contains the specified time
The transparency is set to 70% so you can still see the candle through the highlight
You can adjust the transparency level by changing the transp parameter (0 = fully opaque, 100 = fully transparent).
make a pine script which change the color of the candle in yellow color in 1,5,15 timeframe at the time of 9:16, 9:31, 9:46
Futures Trading Hours RSI StrategyFutures Trading Hours RSI Strategy
A lightweight, session-filtered RSI strategy designed for equity-index futures (e.g. NQ, ES, YM) on a 30-minute chart. It dynamically enters long when RSI crosses above your oversold threshold and short when RSI crosses below your overbought threshold—but only during regular U.S. trading hours (08:30–15:00 CT, Monday–Friday). All positions are set to close at 15:00 CT to avoid overnight risk, and optional background shading highlights your open longs (green) and shorts (red).
⸻
Key Features
• RSI-based entries: configurable length, oversold, and overbought levels
• Session filter: trades only between 08:30–15:00 CT, Monday through Friday
• Automatic exit: closes all positions at or after 15:00 CT each day
• Visual cues: optional background shading for open long/short positions
• Easy customization: adjust length, overSold, overBought, and time offsets
Backtest Performance (NQ Jun 2025, 30 min)
• Total P&L: +$10,230 (+1.02%)
• Profit Factor: 4.61
• Win Rate: 57.1% (4 wins / 7 trades)
• Max Drawdown: $2,215 (0.22%)
(Results shown are for illustrative purposes only; past performance does not guarantee future returns.)
How to Use
1. Add this script to your 30-minute futures chart.
2. Tweak the RSI parameters and time-zone offset to suit your instrument.
3. Enable “background shading” if you’d like a visual reminder of open positions.
4. Run in paper-trade mode to validate performance before going live.
⸻
⚠️ Disclaimer: Trading carries risk. Always backtest and paper-trade before using real capital. Adjust position sizing and risk controls to your own tolerance.
Topological Market Stress (TMS) - Quantum FabricTopological Market Stress (TMS) - Quantum Fabric
What Stresses The Market?
Topological Market Stress (TMS) represents a revolutionary fusion of algebraic topology and quantum field theory applied to financial markets. Unlike traditional indicators that analyze price movements linearly, TMS examines the underlying topological structure of market data—detecting when the very fabric of market relationships begins to tear, warp, or collapse.
Drawing inspiration from the ethereal beauty of quantum field visualizations and the mathematical elegance of topological spaces, this indicator transforms complex mathematical concepts into an intuitive, visually stunning interface that reveals hidden market dynamics invisible to conventional analysis.
Theoretical Foundation: Topology Meets Markets
Topological Holes in Market Structure
In algebraic topology, a "hole" represents a fundamental structural break—a place where the normal connectivity of space fails. In markets, these topological holes manifest as:
Correlation Breakdown: When traditional price-volume relationships collapse
Volatility Clustering Failure: When volatility patterns lose their predictive power
Microstructure Stress: When market efficiency mechanisms begin to fail
The Mathematics of Market Topology
TMS constructs a topological space from market data using three key components:
1. Correlation Topology
ρ(P,V) = correlation(price, volume, period)
Hole Formation = 1 - |ρ(P,V)|
When price and volume decorrelate, topological holes begin forming.
2. Volatility Clustering Topology
σ(t) = volatility at time t
Clustering = correlation(σ(t), σ(t-1), period)
Breakdown = 1 - |Clustering|
Volatility clustering breakdown indicates structural instability.
3. Market Efficiency Topology
Efficiency = |price - EMA(price)| / ATR
Measures how far price deviates from its efficient trajectory.
Multi-Scale Topological Analysis
Markets exist across multiple temporal scales simultaneously. TMS analyzes topology at three distinct scales:
Micro Scale (3-15 periods): Immediate structural changes, market microstructure stress
Meso Scale (10-50 periods): Trend-level topology, medium-term structural shifts
Macro Scale (50-200 periods): Long-term structural topology, regime-level changes
The final stress metric combines all scales:
Combined Stress = 0.3×Micro + 0.4×Meso + 0.3×Macro
How TMS Works
1. Topological Space Construction
Each market moment is embedded in a multi-dimensional topological space where:
- Price efficiency forms one dimension
- Correlation breakdown forms another
- Volatility clustering breakdown forms the third
2. Hole Detection Algorithm
The indicator continuously scans this topological space for:
Hole Formation: When stress exceeds the formation threshold
Hole Persistence: How long structural breaks maintain
Hole Collapse: Sudden topology restoration (regime shifts)
3. Quantum Visualization Engine
The visualization system translates topological mathematics into intuitive quantum field representations:
Stress Waves: Main line showing topological stress intensity
Quantum Glow: Surrounding field indicating stress energy
Fabric Integrity: Background showing structural health
Multi-Scale Rings: Orbital representations of different timeframes
4. Signal Generation
Stable Topology (✨): Normal market structure, standard trading conditions
Stressed Topology (⚡): Increased structural tension, heightened volatility expected
Topological Collapse (🕳️): Major structural break, regime shift in progress
Critical Stress (🌋): Extreme conditions, maximum caution required
Inputs & Parameters
🕳️ Topological Parameters
Analysis Window (20-200, default: 50)
Primary period for topological analysis
20-30: High-frequency scalping, rapid structure detection
50: Balanced approach, recommended for most markets
100-200: Long-term position trading, major structural shifts only
Hole Formation Threshold (0.1-0.9, default: 0.3)
Sensitivity for detecting topological holes
0.1-0.2: Very sensitive, detects minor structural stress
0.3: Balanced, optimal for most market conditions
0.5-0.9: Conservative, only major structural breaks
Density Calculation Radius (0.1-2.0, default: 0.5)
Radius for local density estimation in topological space
0.1-0.3: Fine-grained analysis, sensitive to local changes
0.5: Standard approach, balanced sensitivity
1.0-2.0: Broad analysis, focuses on major structural features
Collapse Detection (0.5-0.95, default: 0.7)
Threshold for detecting sudden topology restoration
0.5-0.6: Very sensitive to regime changes
0.7: Balanced, reliable collapse detection
0.8-0.95: Conservative, only major regime shifts
📊 Multi-Scale Analysis
Enable Multi-Scale (default: true)
- Analyzes topology across multiple timeframes simultaneously
- Provides deeper insight into market structure at different scales
- Essential for understanding cross-timeframe topology interactions
Micro Scale Period (3-15, default: 5)
Fast scale for immediate topology changes
3-5: Ultra-fast, tick/minute data analysis
5-8: Fast, 5m-15m chart optimization
10-15: Medium-fast, 30m-1H chart focus
Meso Scale Period (10-50, default: 20)
Medium scale for trend topology analysis
10-15: Short trend structures
20-25: Medium trend structures (recommended)
30-50: Long trend structures
Macro Scale Period (50-200, default: 100)
Slow scale for structural topology
50-75: Medium-term structural analysis
100: Long-term structure (recommended)
150-200: Very long-term structural patterns
⚙️ Signal Processing
Smoothing Method (SMA/EMA/RMA/WMA, default: EMA) Method for smoothing stress signals
SMA: Simple average, stable but slower
EMA: Exponential, responsive and recommended
RMA: Running average, very smooth
WMA: Weighted average, balanced approach
Smoothing Period (1-10, default: 3)
Period for signal smoothing
1-2: Minimal smoothing, noisy but fast
3-5: Balanced, recommended for most applications
6-10: Heavy smoothing, slow but very stable
Normalization (Fixed/Adaptive/Rolling, default: Adaptive)
Method for normalizing stress values
Fixed: Static 0-1 range normalization
Adaptive: Dynamic range adjustment (recommended)
Rolling: Rolling window normalization
🎨 Quantum Visualization
Fabric Style Options:
Quantum Field: Flowing energy visualization with smooth gradients
Topological Mesh: Mathematical topology with stepped lines
Phase Space: Dynamical systems view with circular markers
Minimal: Clean, simple display with reduced visual elements
Color Scheme Options:
Quantum Gradient: Deep space blue → Quantum red progression
Thermal: Black → Hot orange thermal imaging style
Spectral: Purple → Gold full spectrum colors
Monochrome: Dark gray → Light gray elegant simplicity
Multi-Scale Rings (default: true)
- Display orbital rings for different time scales
- Visualizes how topology changes across timeframes
- Provides immediate visual feedback on cross-scale dynamics
Glow Intensity (0.0-1.0, default: 0.6)
Controls the quantum glow effect intensity
0.0: No glow, pure line display
0.6: Balanced, recommended setting
1.0: Maximum glow, full quantum field effect
📋 Dashboard & Alerts
Show Dashboard (default: true)
Real-time topology status display
Current market state and trading recommendations
Stress level visualization and fabric integrity status
Show Theory Guide (default: true)
Educational panel explaining topological concepts
Dashboard interpretation guide
Trading strategy recommendations
Enable Alerts (default: true)
Extreme stress detection alerts
Topological collapse notifications
Hole formation and recovery signals
Visual Logic & Interpretation
Main Visualization Elements
Quantum Stress Line
Primary indicator showing topological stress intensity
Color intensity reflects current market state
Line style varies based on selected fabric style
Glow effect indicates stress energy field
Equilibrium Line
Silver line showing average stress level
Reference point for normal market conditions
Helps identify when stress is elevated or suppressed
Upper/Lower Bounds
Red upper bound: High stress threshold
Green lower bound: Low stress threshold
Quantum fabric fill between bounds shows stress field
Multi-Scale Rings
Aqua circles : Micro-scale topology (immediate changes)
Orange circles: Meso-scale topology (trend-level changes)
Provides cross-timeframe topology visualization
Dashboard Information
Topology State Icons:
✨ STABLE: Normal market structure, standard trading conditions
⚡ STRESSED: Increased structural tension, monitor closely
🕳️ COLLAPSE: Major structural break, regime shift occurring
🌋 CRITICAL: Extreme conditions, reduce risk exposure
Stress Bar Visualization:
Visual representation of current stress level (0-100%)
Color-coded based on current topology state
Real-time percentage display
Fabric Integrity Dots:
●●●●● Intact: Strong market structure (0-30% stress)
●●●○○ Stressed: Weakening structure (30-70% stress)
●○○○○ Fractured: Breaking down structure (70-100% stress)
Action Recommendations:
✅ TRADE: Normal conditions, standard strategies apply
⚠️ WATCH: Monitor closely, increased vigilance required
🔄 ADAPT: Change strategy, regime shift in progress
🛑 REDUCE: Lower risk exposure, extreme conditions
Trading Strategies
In Stable Topology (✨ STABLE)
- Normal trading conditions apply
- Use standard technical analysis
- Regular position sizing appropriate
- Both trend-following and mean-reversion strategies viable
In Stressed Topology (⚡ STRESSED)
- Increased volatility expected
- Widen stop losses to account for higher volatility
- Reduce position sizes slightly
- Focus on high-probability setups
- Monitor for potential regime change
During Topological Collapse (🕳️ COLLAPSE)
- Major regime shift in progress
- Adapt strategy immediately to new market character
- Consider closing positions that rely on previous regime
- Wait for new topology to stabilize before major trades
- Opportunity for contrarian plays if collapse is extreme
In Critical Stress (🌋 CRITICAL)
- Extreme market conditions
- Significantly reduce risk exposure
- Avoid new positions until stress subsides
- Focus on capital preservation
- Consider hedging existing positions
Advanced Techniques
Multi-Timeframe Topology Analysis
- Use higher timeframe TMS for regime context
- Use lower timeframe TMS for precise entry timing
- Alignment across timeframes = highest probability trades
Topology Divergence Trading
- Most powerful at regime boundaries
- Price makes new high/low but topology stress decreases
- Early warning of potential reversals
- Combine with key support/resistance levels
Stress Persistence Analysis
- Long periods of stable topology often precede major moves
- Extended stress periods often resolve in regime changes
- Use persistence tracking for position sizing decisions
Originality & Innovation
TMS represents a genuine breakthrough in applying advanced mathematics to market analysis:
True Topological Analysis: Not a simplified proxy but actual topological space construction and hole detection using correlation breakdown, volatility clustering analysis, and market efficiency measurement.
Quantum Aesthetic: Transforms complex topology mathematics into an intuitive, visually stunning interface inspired by quantum field theory visualizations.
Multi-Scale Architecture: Simultaneous analysis across micro, meso, and macro timeframes provides unprecedented insight into market structure dynamics.
Regime Detection: Identifies fundamental market character changes before they become obvious in price action, providing early warning of structural shifts.
Practical Application: Clear, actionable signals derived from advanced mathematical concepts, making theoretical topology accessible to practical traders.
This is not a combination of existing indicators or a cosmetic enhancement of standard tools. It represents a fundamental reimagining of how we measure, visualize, and interpret market dynamics through the lens of algebraic topology and quantum field theory.
Best Practices
Start with defaults: Parameters are optimized for broad market applicability
Match timeframe: Adjust scales based on your trading timeframe
Confirm with price action: TMS shows market character, not direction
Respect topology changes: Reduce risk during regime transitions
Use appropriate strategies: Adapt approach based on current topology state
Monitor persistence: Track how long topology states maintain
Cross-timeframe analysis: Align multiple timeframes for highest probability trades
Alerts Available
Extreme Topological Stress: Market fabric under severe deformation
Topological Collapse Detected: Regime shift in progress
Topological Hole Forming: Market structure breakdown detected
Topology Stabilizing: Market structure recovering to normal
Chart Requirements
Recommended Markets: All liquid markets (forex, stocks, crypto, futures)
Optimal Timeframes: 5m to Daily (adaptable to any timeframe)
Minimum History: 200 bars for proper topology construction
Best Performance: Markets with clear regime characteristics
Academic Foundation
This indicator draws from cutting-edge research in:
- Algebraic topology and persistent homology
- Quantum field theory visualization techniques
- Market microstructure analysis
- Multi-scale dynamical systems theory
- Correlation topology and network analysis
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or provide direct buy/sell signals. Topological analysis reveals market structure characteristics, not future price direction. Always use proper risk management and combine with your own analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See markets through the lens of topology. Trade the structure, not the noise.
Bringing advanced mathematics to practical trading through quantum-inspired visualization.
Trade with insight. Trade with structure.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
VWAP + Candle-Rating SELL (close, robust)This multi‐timeframe setup first scans the 15-minute chart for strong bearish candles (body position in the bottom 40% of their range, i.e. rating 4 or 5) that close below the session VWAP. When it finds the first such “setup” of a trading period, it pins the low of that 15-minute candle as a trigger level and draws a persistent red line there. On the 5-minute chart, the strategy then waits for a similarly strong bearish candle (rating 4 or 5) to close below that marked low—at which point it emits a one‐time SELL signal. The trigger level remains in place (and additional sell signals are locked out) until the market “rescues” the price: a 15-minute bullish candle (rating 1 or 2) closing back above VWAP clears the old setup and allows the next valid bearish 15-minute candle to form a new trigger. This design ensures you only trade the most significant breakdowns after a clear bearish bias and avoids repeated signals until a genuine bullish reversal resets the system.
10 Monday's 1H Avg Range + 30-Day Daily RangeWhat This Script Does
This indicator is designed for traders who want to monitor volatility and range behavior at the start of the trading week . It focuses specifically on the first four 15-minute candles of each Monday and tracks their combined high-low range over time.
How It Works
Monday 1H Range Detection:
Each week, it automatically detects and highlights the first 4 candles of Monday on a 15-minute chart (1 hour total). It calculates the range between the highest high and lowest low of these candles.
10-Week Average of Monday 1H Ranges:
It stores and averages the last 10 such ranges, displaying this average in a table for weekly comparison.
30-Day Daily Range Average:
Separately, it calculates the average daily range (high – low) of the last 30 daily candles. This value helps put the Monday 1H range into broader context and can guide Stop Loss or TP planning.
Dynamic Labeling & Visual Highlights:
The script visually highlights the first 4 candles of Monday and places a label showing the pip range once the 4 candles have completed. It also updates a small table with the two averages described above.
How to Use It
Use it on the 15-minute timeframe to activate the Monday 1H logic.
Compare the current week’s Monday range to the 10-week average to see if volatility is increasing or decreasing.
Use the 30-day daily range to determine if the Monday opening movement is unusually large or small.
Consider adjusting trade entries, stops, or targets if the Monday range is disproportionately large compared to recent historical behavior.
What Makes It Original?
This is not a typical volatility indicator like ATR or standard deviation. Instead, it’s a purpose-built tool combining:
Time-specific behavior (first hour of the week),
Historical contextualization (10-week average tracking),
A dual-timeframe analysis (15-min + daily),
A user-friendly table and visual interface.
This script helps intraday or swing traders spot abnormal volatility early in the week and adjust their strategies accordingly—especially in fast-moving Forex or Index markets.
[blackcat] L2 Angle Trend TrackerOVERVIEW
The " L2 Angle Trend Tracker" is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed to monitor trend direction and momentum using multiple Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) with different periods. 📈 This script calculates the angles of 5 EMAs (5, 8, 10, 12, and 15 periods) and displays them with gradient colors, providing a comprehensive view of market momentum. When all EMAs cross above or below specified threshold levels, it generates Buy or Sell signals with visual alerts. The indicator helps traders identify trend reversals, potential entry/exit points, and market sentiment shifts with precision. 🚀 This powerful tool is particularly useful for traders who want to combine multiple timeframe analysis with angle-based momentum confirmation.
FEATURES
Calculates angles for 5 EMAs with customizable periods (5, 8, 10, 12, and 15)
Displays angle values with distinct colors for each EMA (Green, Blue, Purple, Orange, and Red)
Generates Buy signals when all EMAs cross above the lower threshold
Generates Sell signals when all EMAs cross below the upper threshold
Shows a zero line and threshold lines for easy reference
Customizable threshold levels for Buy/Sell signals
Visual alerts with "Buy" and "Sell" labels at the point of signal generation
The script uses a mathematical formula to calculate the angle of each EMA relative to its position 11 bars ago
Angle values are converted from radians to degrees for easier interpretation
The zero line represents no change in the EMA angle
The indicator is not overlayed on the price chart by default, but can be adjusted in the script settings 📊
HOW TO USE
Adjust the EMA periods to match your trading strategy 🛠️
Shorter periods (5, 8) are more sensitive to price changes
Longer periods (10, 12, 15) provide smoother trend confirmation
Set appropriate threshold values for Buy/Sell signals based on your risk tolerance
Default thresholds are 70 for upper threshold and -70 for lower threshold
Consider adjusting thresholds based on market volatility
Watch for Buy signals when all EMAs cross above the lower threshold (default: -70)
The signal appears as a green "Buy" label on the chart
This indicates a potential trend reversal to the upside
Watch for Sell signals when all EMAs cross below the upper threshold (default: 70)
The signal appears as a red "Sell" label on the chart
This indicates a potential trend reversal to the downside
Combine with other indicators for confirmation before making trading decisions 🧠
Consider using volume confirmation, support/resistance levels, or other oscillators
The angle tracker works well with trend-following strategies
Use the angle values to gauge momentum strength
Steeper angles indicate stronger momentum
Flatter angles suggest weakening momentum or consolidation
CONFIGURATION
EMA Periods: The script uses five different EMA periods that can be customized:
EMA Period 5: Short-term trend indicator
EMA Period 8: Medium-short term trend indicator
EMA Period 10: Medium-term trend indicator
EMA Period 12: Medium-long term trend indicator
EMA Period 15: Long-term trend indicator
Threshold Settings:
Threshold Top: Sets the upper boundary for Sell signals (default: 70)
Threshold Bot: Sets the lower boundary for Buy signals (default: -70)
These thresholds can be adjusted based on market conditions and trading style
LIMITATIONS
The script may generate false signals in ranging markets or during periods of high volatility
All EMAs must cross the threshold for a signal to appear, which may filter some valid signals
The angle calculation uses a 11-bar lookback period, which may not be suitable for all timeframes
Works best in trending markets and may produce whipsaws in choppy conditions ⚠️
The indicator is more effective on higher timeframes (4H, 1D) than on very short timeframes (1M, 5M)
Signal generation requires confirmation from multiple EMAs, which may delay entry/exit points
The angle calculation method may not be suitable for all financial instruments
ADVANCED TIPS
Use multiple instances of this indicator with different EMA settings for multi-timeframe analysis
Combine with volume analysis to confirm the strength of signals
Look for confluence with support and resistance levels for more reliable signals
Consider using the angle values as a filter for other trading strategies
The indicator can be used to identify momentum exhaustion points when angles flatten
For swing trading, consider using the Buy and Sell signals as potential entry/exit points
For day trading, you may want to use shorter EMA periods and adjust threshold values accordingly
NOTES
The script uses a mathematical formula to calculate the angle of each EMA relative to its position 11 bars ago
The angle values are converted from radians to degrees for easier interpretation
The zero line represents no change in the EMA angle
The indicator is not overlayed on the price chart by default, but can be adjusted in the script settings 📊
The angle calculation provides a dynamic view of momentum that traditional moving averages don't offer
The threshold values are based on empirical testing and can be fine-tuned for specific instruments
THANKS
Special thanks to the TradingView community for their support and feedback on this indicator. If you find this script helpful, please consider leaving a comment or sharing your experiences with it. Your feedback helps improve the tool for everyone. 🙏
Also, a nod to the original concept developers who pioneered angle-based trend analysis. This script builds upon those foundational ideas to provide a more comprehensive view of market momentum. 🌟
Canuck Trading IndicatorOverview
The Canuck Trading Indicator is a versatile, overlay-based technical analysis tool designed to assist traders in identifying potential trading opportunities across various timeframes and market conditions. By combining multiple technical indicators—such as RSI, Bollinger Bands, EMAs, VWAP, MACD, Stochastic RSI, ADX, HMA, and candlestick patterns—the indicator provides clear visual signals for bullish and bearish entries, breakouts, long-term trends, and options strategies like cash-secured puts, straddles/strangles, iron condors, and short squeezes. It also incorporates 20-day and 200-day SMAs to detect Golden/Death Crosses and price positioning relative to these moving averages. A dynamic table displays key metrics, and customizable alerts help traders stay informed of market conditions.
Key Features
Multi-Timeframe Adaptability: Automatically adjusts parameters (e.g., ATR multiplier, ADX period, HMA length) based on the chart's timeframe (minute, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly) for optimal performance.
Comprehensive Signal Generation: Identifies short-term entries, breakouts, long-term bullish trends, and options strategies using a combination of momentum, trend, volatility, and candlestick patterns.
Candlestick Pattern Detection: Recognizes bullish/bearish engulfing, hammer, shooting star, doji, and strong candles for precise entry/exit signals.
Moving Average Analysis: Plots 20-day and 200-day SMAs, detects Golden/Death Crosses, and evaluates price position relative to these averages.
Dynamic Table: Displays real-time metrics, including zone status (bullish, bearish, neutral), RSI, MACD, Stochastic RSI, short/long-term trends, candlestick patterns, ADX, ROC, VWAP slope, and MA positioning.
Customizable Alerts: Over 20 alert conditions for entries, exits, overbought/oversold warnings, and MA crosses, with actionable messages including ticker, price, and suggested strategies.
Visual Clarity: Uses distinct shapes, colors, and sizes to plot signals (e.g., green triangles for bullish entries, red triangles for bearish entries) and overlays key levels like EMA, VWAP, Bollinger Bands, support/resistance, and HMA.
Options Strategy Signals: Suggests opportunities for selling cash-secured puts, straddles/strangles, iron condors, and capitalizing on short squeezes.
How to Use
Add to Chart: Apply the indicator to any TradingView chart by selecting "Canuck Trading Indicator" from the Pine Script library.
Interpret Signals:
Bullish Signals: Green triangles (short-term entry), lime diamonds (breakout), blue circles (long-term entry).
Bearish Signals: Red triangles (short-term entry), maroon diamonds (breakout).
Options Strategies: Purple squares (cash-secured puts), yellow circles (straddles/strangles), orange crosses (iron condors), white arrows (short squeezes).
Exits: X-cross shapes in corresponding colors indicate exit signals.
Monitor: Gray circles suggest holding cash or monitoring for setups.
Review Table: Check the top-right table for real-time metrics, including zone status, RSI, MACD, trends, and MA positioning.
Set Alerts: Configure alerts for specific signals (e.g., "Short-Term Bullish Entry" or "Golden Cross") to receive notifications via TradingView.
Adjust Inputs: Customize input parameters (e.g., RSI period, EMA length, ATR period) to suit your trading style or market conditions.
Input Parameters
The indicator offers a wide range of customizable inputs to fine-tune its behavior:
RSI Period (default: 14): Length for RSI calculation.
RSI Bullish Low/High (default: 35/70): RSI thresholds for bullish signals.
RSI Bearish High (default: 65): RSI threshold for bearish signals.
EMA Period (default: 15): Main EMA length (15 for day trading, 50 for swing).
Short/Long EMA Length (default: 3/20): For momentum oscillator.
T3 Smoothing Length (default: 5): Smooths momentum signals.
Long-Term EMA/RSI Length (default: 20/15): For long-term trend analysis.
Support/Resistance Lookback (default: 5): Periods for support/resistance levels.
MACD Fast/Slow/Signal (default: 12/26/9): MACD parameters.
Bollinger Bands Period/StdDev (default: 15/2): BB settings.
Stochastic RSI Period/Smoothing (default: 14/3/3): Stochastic RSI settings.
Uptrend/Short-Term/Long-Term Lookback (default: 2/2/5): Candles for trend detection.
ATR Period (default: 14): For volatility and price targets.
VWAP Sensitivity (default: 0.1%): Threshold for VWAP-based signals.
Volume Oscillator Period (default: 14): For volume surge detection.
Pattern Detection Threshold (default: 0.3%): Sensitivity for candlestick patterns.
ROC Period (default: 3): Rate of change for momentum.
VWAP Slope Period (default: 5): For VWAP trend analysis.
TradingView Publishing Compliance
Originality: The Canuck Trading Indicator is an original script, combining multiple technical indicators and custom logic to provide unique trading signals. It does not replicate existing public scripts.
No Guaranteed Profits: This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and does not guarantee profits. Trading involves risks, and users should conduct their own research and risk management.
Clear Instructions: The description and usage guide are detailed and accessible, ensuring users understand how to apply the indicator effectively.
No External Dependencies: The script uses only built-in Pine Script functions (e.g., ta.rsi, ta.ema, ta.vwap) and requires no external libraries or data sources.
Performance: The script is optimized for performance, using efficient calculations and adaptive parameters to minimize lag on various timeframes.
Visual Clarity: Signals are plotted with distinct shapes and colors, and the table provides a concise summary of market conditions, enhancing usability.
Limitations and Risks
Market Conditions: The indicator may generate false signals in choppy or low-liquidity markets. Always confirm signals with additional analysis.
Timeframe Sensitivity: Performance varies by timeframe; test settings on your preferred chart (e.g., 5-minute for day trading, daily for swing trading).
Risk Management: Use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk, as suggested in alert messages (e.g., "Stop -20%").
Options Trading: Options strategies (e.g., straddles, iron condors) carry unique risks; consult a financial advisor before trading.
Feedback and Support
For questions, suggestions, or bug reports, please leave a comment on the TradingView script page or contact the author via TradingView. Your feedback helps improve the indicator for the community.
Disclaimer
The Canuck Trading Indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
ORB-HL1. Opening Range Detection
Automatically calculates the high and low of the first 15 minutes after the selected session opens.
Supported sessions:
New York (Futures): 08:30–08:45 EST
New York (Equities): 09:30–09:45 EST
London: 03:00–03:15 GMT
Asia: 19:00–19:15 JST
Plots ORB high/low lines for the rest of the day.
2. Breakout Signals
Highlights the first valid breakout above or below the ORB range on the:
5-minute timeframe
15-minute timeframe
Green arrows = breakout up (long)
Red arrows = breakout down (short)
3. 1-Minute Projection
When a breakout is confirmed on a higher timeframe (5m or 15m), a projection label (e.g., "5m", "15m") appears on the 1-minute chart.
Purple label = 5m breakout
Teal label = 15m breakout
Helps you confirm momentum in real time while on the 1-minute chart.
4. Trailing Stop System
Uses ATR to create an adaptive trailing stop after breakout.
Turns green when price is above stop (bullish), red when below (bearish).
Optional Buy / Sell signal labels appear on crossover events.
5. Session High/Low Visualization
Tracks and displays the previous session’s High and Low for:
Tokyo
London
New York
Lines extend into the current session to act as S/R reference.
Labels like "NY High", "Asia Low" are placed at the end of each line.
6. Alerts
Built-in alerts for:
First 5m or 15m breakout (long/short)
Trailing stop Buy/Sell crossover
7. Customization Options
Turn session H/L lines on/off per session
Customize projection visibility
Adjust ATR period and sensitivity
Set how far each session line extends using bar offsets
Camarilla Pivot Plays█ OVERVIEW
This indicator implements the Camarilla Pivot Points levels and a system for suggesting particular plays. It only calculates and shows the 3rd, 4th, and 6th levels, as these are the only ones used by the system. In total, there are 12 possible plays, grouped into two groups of six. The algorithm constantly evaluates conditions for entering and exiting the plays and indicates them in real time, also triggering user-configurable alerts.
█ CREDITS
The Camarilla pivot plays are defined in a strategy developed by Thor Young, and the whole system is explained in his book "A Complete Day Trading System" . The indicator is published with his permission, and he is a user of it. The book is not necessary in order to understand and use the indicator; this description contains sufficient information to use it effectively.
█ FEATURES
Automatically draws plays, suggesting an entry, stop-loss, and maximum target
User can set alerts on chosen ticker to call these plays, even when not currently viewing them
Highly configurable via many options
Works for US/European stocks and US futures (at least)
Works correctly on both RTH and ETH charts
Automatically switches between RTH and ETH data
Optionally also shows the "other" set of pivots (RTH vs ETH data)
Configurable behaviour in the pre-market, not active in the post-market
Configurable sensitivity of the play detection algorithm
Can also show weekly and monthly Camarilla pivots
Well-documented options tooltips
Sensible defaults which are suitable for immediate use
Well-documented and high-quality open-source code for those who are interested
█ HOW TO USE
The defaults work well; at a minimum, just add the indicator and watch the plays being called. To avoid having to watch securities, by selecting the three dots next to the indicator name, you can set an alert on the indicator and choose to be alerted on play entry or exit events—or both. The following diagram shows several plays activated in the past (with the "Show past plays" option selected).
By default, the indicator draws plays 5 days back; this can be changed up to 20 days. The labels can be shifted left/right using the "label offset" option to avoid overlapping with other labels in this indicator or those of another indicator.
An information box at the top-right of the chart shows:
The data currently in use for the main pivots. This can switch in the pre-market if the H/L range exceeds the previous day's H/L, and if it does, you will see that switch at the time that it happens
Whether the current day's pivots are in a higher or lower range compared to the previous day's. This is based on the RTH close, so large moves in the post-market won't be reflected (there is an advanced option to change this)
The width of the value relationship in the current day compared to the previous day
The currently active play. If multiple plays are active in parallel, only the last activated one is shown
The resistance pivots are all drawn in the same colour (red by default), as are the support pivots (green by default). You can change the resistance and support colours, but it is not possible to have different colours for different levels of the same kind. Plays will always use the correct colour, drawing over the pivots. For example, R4 is red by default, but if a play treats R4 as a support, then the play will draw a green line (by default) over the red R4 line, thereby hiding it while the play is active.
There are a few advanced parameters; leave these as default unless you really know what they do. Please note the script is complicated—it does a lot. You might need to wait a few seconds while it (re)calculates on new tickers or when changing options. Give it time when first loading or changing options!
█ CONCEPTS
The indicator is focused around daily Camarilla pivots and implements 12 possible plays: 6 when in a higher range, 6 when in a lower range. The plays are labelled by two letters—the first indicates the range, the second indicates the play—as shown in this diagram:
The pivots can be calculated using only RTH (Regular Trading Hours) data, or ETH (Extended Trading Hours) data, which includes the pre-market and post-market. The indicator implements logic to automatically choose the correct data, based on the rules defined by the strategy. This is user-overridable. With the default options, ETH will be used when the H/L range in the previous day's post-market or current day's pre-market exceeds that of the previous day's regular market. In auto mode, the chosen pivots are considered the main pivots for that day and are the ones used for play evaluation. The "other" pivots can also be shown—"other" here meaning using ETH data when the main pivots use RTH data, and vice versa.
When displaying plays in the pre-market, since the RTH open is not yet known (and that value is needed to evaluate play pre-conditions), the pre-market open is used as a proxy for the RTH open. After the regular market opens, the correct RTH open is used to evaluate play conditions.
█ NOTE FOR FUTURES
Futures always use full ETH data in auto mode. Users may, however, wish to use the option "Always use RTH close," which uses the 3 p.m. Central Time (CME/Chicago) as a basis for the close in the pivot calculations (instead of the 4 p.m. actual close).
Futures don't officially have a pre-market or post-market like equities. Let's take ES on CME as an example (CME is in Chicago, so all times are Central Time, i.e., 1 hour behind Eastern Time). It trades from 17:00 Sunday to 16:00 Friday, with a daily pause between 16:00 and 17:00. However, most of the trading activity is done between 08:30 and 15:00 (Central), which you can tell from the volume spikes at those times, and this coincides with NYSE/NASDAQ regular hours (09:30–16:00 Eastern). So we define a pseudo-pre-market from 17:00 the previous day to 08:30 on the current day, then a pseudo-regular market from 08:30 to 15:00, then a pseudo-post-market from 15:00 to 16:00.
The indicator then works exactly the same as with equities—all the options behave the same, just with different session times defined for the pre-, regular, and post-market, with "RTH" meaning just the regular market and "ETH" meaning all three. The only difference from equities is that the auto calculation mode always uses ETH instead of switching based on ETH range compared to RTH range. This is so users who just leave all the defaults are not confused by auto-switching of the calculation mode; normally you'll want the pivots based on all the (ETH) data. However, both "Force RTH" and "Use RTH close with ETH data" work the same as with equities—so if, in the calculations, you really want to only use RTH data, or use all ETH H/L data but use the RTH close (at 15:00), you can.
█ LIMITATIONS
The pivots are very close to those shown in DAS Trader Pro. They are not to-the-cent exact, but within a few cents. The reasons are:
TradingView uses real-time data from CBOE One, so doesn't have access to full exchange data (unless you pay for it in TradingView), and
the close/high/low are taken from the intraday timeframe you are currently viewing, not daily data—which are very close, but often not exactly the same. For example, the high on the daily timeframe may differ slightly from the daily high you'll see on an intraday timeframe.
I have occasionally seen larger than a few cents differences in the pivots between these and DAS Trader Pro—this is always due to differences in data, for example a big spike in the data in TradingView but not in DAS Trader Pro, or vice versa. The more traded the stock is, the less the difference tends to be. Highly traded stocks are usually within a few cents. Less traded stocks may be more (for example, 30¢ difference in R4 is the highest I've seen). If it bothers you, official NYSE/NASDAQ data in TradingView is quite inexpensive (but even that doesn't make the 8am candle identical).
The 6th Camarilla level does not have a standard definition and may not match the level shown on other platforms. It does match the definition used by DAS Trader Pro.
The indicator is an intraday indicator (despite also being able to show weekly and monthly pivots on an intraday chart). It deactivates on a daily timeframe and higher. It is untested on sub-minute timeframes; you may encounter runtime errors on these due to various historical data referencing issues. Also, the play detection algorithm would likely be unpredictable on sub-minute timeframes. Therefore, sub-minute timeframes are formally unsupported.
The indicator was developed and tested for US/European stocks and US futures. It may or may not work as intended for stocks and futures in different locations. It does not work for other security types (e.g., crypto), where I have no evidence that the strategy has any relevance.
Liquid Pulse Liquid Pulse by Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems
Liquid Pulse is a trading algo built by Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems for futures markets like NQ1!, designed to snag high-probability trades with tight risk control. it fuses a confluence system—VWAP, MACD, ADX, volume, and liquidity sweeps—with a trade scoring setup, daily limits, and VIX pauses to dodge wild volatility. visuals include simple signals, VWAP bands, and a dashboard with stats.
Core Components for Liquid Pulse
Volume Sensitivity (volumeSensitivity) controls how much volume spikes matter for entries. options: 'Low', 'Medium', 'High' default: 'High' (catches small spikes, good for active markets) tweak it: 'Low' for calm markets, 'High' for chaos.
MACD Speed (macdSpeed) sets the MACD’s pace for momentum. options: 'Fast', 'Medium', 'Slow' default: 'Medium' (solid balance) tweak it: 'Fast' for scalping, 'Slow' for swings.
Daily Trade Limit (dailyTradeLimit) caps trades per day to keep risk in check. range: 1 to 30 default: 20 tweak it: 5-10 for safety, 20-30 for action.
Number of Contracts (numContracts) sets position size. range: 1 to 20 default: 4 tweak it: up for big accounts, down for small.
VIX Pause Level (vixPauseLevel) stops trading if VIX gets too hot. range: 10 to 80 default: 39.0 tweak it: 30 to avoid volatility, 50 to ride it.
Min Confluence Conditions (minConditions) sets how many signals must align. range: 1 to 5 default: 2 tweak it: 3-4 for strict, 1-2 for more trades.
Min Trade Score (Longs/Shorts) (minTradeScoreLongs/minTradeScoreShorts) filters trade quality. longs range: 0 to 100 default: 73 shorts range: 0 to 100 default: 75 tweak it: 80-90 for quality, 60-70 for volume.
Liquidity Sweep Strength (sweepStrength) gauges breakouts. range: 0.1 to 1.0 default: 0.5 tweak it: 0.7-1.0 for strong moves, 0.3-0.5 for small.
ADX Trend Threshold (adxTrendThreshold) confirms trends. range: 10 to 100 default: 41 tweak it: 40-50 for trends, 30-35 for weak ones.
ADX Chop Threshold (adxChopThreshold) avoids chop. range: 5 to 50 default: 20 tweak it: 15-20 to dodge chop, 25-30 to loosen.
VWAP Timeframe (vwapTimeframe) sets VWAP period. options: '15', '30', '60', '240', 'D' default: '60' (1-hour) tweak it: 60 for day, 240 for swing, D for long.
Take Profit Ticks (Longs/Shorts) (takeProfitTicksLongs/takeProfitTicksShorts) sets profit targets. longs range: 5 to 100 default: 25.0 shorts range: 5 to 100 default: 20.0 tweak it: 30-50 for trends, 10-20 for chop.
Max Profit Ticks (maxProfitTicks) caps max gain. range: 10 to 200 default: 60.0 tweak it: 80-100 for big moves, 40-60 for tight.
Min Profit Ticks to Trail (minProfitTicksTrail) triggers trailing. range: 1 to 50 default: 7.0 tweak it: 10-15 for big gains, 5-7 for quick locks.
Trailing Stop Ticks (trailTicks) sets trail distance. range: 1 to 50 default: 5.0 tweak it: 8-10 for room, 3-5 for fast locks.
Trailing Offset Ticks (trailOffsetTicks) sets trail offset. range: 1 to 20 default: 2.0 tweak it: 1-2 for tight, 5-10 for loose.
ATR Period (atrPeriod) measures volatility. range: 5 to 50 default: 9 tweak it: 14-20 for smooth, 5-9 for reactive.
Hardcoded Settings volLookback: 30 ('Low'), 20 ('Medium'), 11 ('High') volThreshold: 1.5 ('Low'), 1.8 ('Medium'), 2 ('High') swingLen: 5
Execution Logic Overview trades trigger when confluence conditions align, entering long or short with set position sizes. exits use dynamic take-profits, trailing stops after a profit threshold, hard stops via ATR, and a time stop after 100 bars.
Features Multi-Signal Confluence: needs VWAP, MACD, volume, sweeps, and ADX to line up.
Risk Control: ATR-based stops (capped 15 ticks), take-profits (scaled by volatility), and trails.
Market Filters: VIX pause, ADX trend/chop checks, volatility gates. Dashboard: shows scores, VIX, ADX, P/L, win %, streak.
Visuals Simple signals (green up triangles for longs, red down for shorts) and VWAP bands with glow. info table (bottom right) with MACD momentum. dashboard (top right) with stats.
Chart and Backtest:
NQ1! futures, 5-minute chart. works best in trending, volatile conditions. tweak inputs for other markets—test thoroughly.
Backtesting: NQ1! Frame: Jan 19, 2025, 09:00 — May 02, 2025, 16:00 Slippage: 3 Commission: $4.60
Fee Typical Range (per side, per contract)
CME Exchange $1.14 – $1.20
Clearing $0.10 – $0.30
NFA Regulatory $0.02
Firm/Broker Commis. $0.25 – $0.80 (retail prop)
TOTAL $1.60 – $2.30 per side
Round Turn: (enter+exit) = $3.20 – $4.60 per contract
Disclaimer this is for education only. past results don’t predict future wins. trading’s risky—only use money you can lose. backtest and validate before going live. (expect moderators to nitpick some random chart symbol rule—i’ll fix and repost if they pull it.)
About the Author Dskyz (DAFE) Trading Systems crafts killer trading algos. Liquid Pulse is pure research and grit, built for smart, bold trading. Use it with discipline. Use it with clarity. Trade smarter. I’ll keep dropping badass strategies ‘til i build a brand or someone signs me up.
2025 Created by Dskyz, powered by DAFE Trading Systems. Trade smart, trade bold.
C&B Auto MK5C&B Auto MK5.2ema BullBear
Overview
The C&B Auto MK5.2ema BullBear is a versatile Pine Script indicator designed to help traders identify bullish and bearish market conditions across various timeframes. It combines Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Average True Range (ATR), and customizable time filters to generate actionable signals. The indicator overlays on the price chart, displaying EMAs, a dynamic cloud, scaled RSI levels, bull/bear signals, and market condition labels, making it suitable for swing trading, day trading, or scalping in trending or volatile markets.
What It Does
This indicator generates bull and bear signals based on the interaction of two EMAs, filtered by RSI thresholds, ATR-based volatility, a 50/200 EMA trend filter, and user-defined time windows. It adapts to market volatility by adjusting EMA lengths and RSI thresholds. A dynamic cloud highlights trend direction or neutral zones, with candlestick coloring in neutral conditions. Market condition labels (current and historical) provide real-time trend and volatility context, displayed above the chart.
How It Works
The indicator uses the following components:
EMAs: Two EMAs (short and long) are calculated on a user-selected timeframe (1, 5, 15, 30, or 60 minutes). Their crossover or crossunder triggers potential bull/bear signals. EMA lengths adjust based on volatility (e.g., 10/20 for volatile markets, 5/10 for non-volatile).
Dynamic Cloud: The area between the EMAs forms a cloud, colored green for bullish trends, red for bearish trends, or a user-defined color (default yellow) for neutral zones (when EMAs are close, determined by an ATR-based threshold). Users can widen the cloud for visibility.
RSI Filter: RSI is scaled to price levels and plotted on the chart (optional). Signals are filtered to ensure RSI is within volatility-adjusted bull/bear thresholds and not in overbought/oversold zones.
ATR Volatility Filter: An optional filter ensures signals occur during sufficient volatility (ATR(14) > SMA(ATR, 20)).
50/200 EMA Trend Filter: An optional filter restricts bull signals to bullish trends (50 EMA > 200 EMA) and bear signals to bearish trends (50 EMA < 200 EMA).
Time Filter: Signals are restricted to a user-defined UTC time window (default 9:00–15:00), aligning with active trading sessions.
Market Condition Labels: Labels above the chart display the current trend (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) and optionally volatility (e.g., “Bullish Volatile”). Up to two historical labels persist for a user-defined number of bars (default 5) to show recent trend changes.
Visual Aids: Bull signals appear as green triangles/labels below the bar, bear signals as red triangles/labels above. Candlesticks in neutral zones are colored (default yellow).
The indicator ensures compatibility with standard chart types (e.g., candlestick or bar charts) to produce realistic signals, avoiding non-standard types like Heikin Ashi or Renko.
How to Use It
Add to Chart: Apply the indicator to a candlestick or bar chart on TradingView.
Configure Settings:
Timeframe: Choose a timeframe (1, 5, 15, 30, or 60 minutes) to match your trading style.
Filters:
Enable/disable the ATR volatility filter to focus on high-volatility periods.
Enable/disable the 50/200 EMA trend filter to align signals with the broader trend.
Enable the time filter and set custom UTC hours/minutes (default 9:00–15:00).
Cloud Settings: Adjust the cloud width, neutral zone threshold, color, and transparency.
EMA Colors: Use default trend-based colors or set custom colors for short/long EMAs.
RSI Display: Toggle the scaled RSI and its thresholds, with customizable colors.
Signal Settings: Toggle bull/bear labels and set signal colors.
Market Condition Labels: Toggle current/historical labels, include/exclude volatility, and adjust decay period.
Interpret Signals:
Bull Signal: A green triangle or “Bull” label below the bar indicates potential bullish momentum (EMA crossover, RSI above bull threshold, within time window, passing filters).
Bear Signal: A red triangle or “Bear” label above the bar indicates potential bearish momentum (EMA crossunder, RSI below bear threshold, within time window, passing filters).
Neutral Zone: Yellow candlesticks and cloud (if enabled) suggest a lack of clear trend; consider range-bound strategies or avoid trading.
Market Condition Labels: Check labels above the chart for real-time trend (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) and volatility status to confirm market context.
Monitor Context: Use the cloud, RSI, and labels to assess trend strength and volatility before acting on signals.
Unique Features
Volatility-Adaptive EMAs: Automatically adjusts EMA lengths based on ATR to suit volatile or non-volatile markets, reducing manual configuration.
Neutral Zone Detection: Uses an ATR-based threshold to identify low-trend periods, helping traders avoid choppy markets.
Scaled RSI Visualization: Plots RSI and thresholds directly on the price chart, simplifying momentum analysis relative to price.
Flexible Time Filtering: Supports precise UTC-based trading windows, ideal for day traders targeting specific sessions.
Historical Market Labels: Displays recent trend changes (up to two) with a decay period, providing context for market shifts.
50/200 EMA Trend Filter: Aligns signals with the broader market trend, enhancing signal reliability.
Notes
Use on standard candlestick or bar charts to ensure accurate signals.
Test the indicator on a demo account to optimize settings for your market and timeframe.
Combine with other analysis (e.g., support/resistance, volume) for better decision-making.
The indicator is not a standalone system; use it as part of a broader trading strategy.
Limitations
Signals may lag in fast-moving markets due to EMA-based calculations.
Neutral zone detection may vary in extremely volatile or illiquid markets.
Time filters are UTC-based; ensure your platform’s timezone settings align.
This indicator is designed for traders seeking a customizable, trend-following tool that adapts to volatility and provides clear visual cues with robust filtering for bullish and bearish market conditions.
