M2 Global Liquidity Index - X Days LeadThis custom indicator overlays the Bitcoin price chart with the Global Liquidity M2 chart, providing a unique perspective on how monetary supply might influence Bitcoin's price movements. The indicator distinguishes between past and future segments of the liquidity data using two distinct colors.
- Past Segment: The portion of the Global Liquidity M2 chart that has already passed is displayed in one color, allowing users to assess historical correlations with Bitcoin's price.
- Future Segment: The upcoming part of the liquidity chart is shown in a different color, offering insights into potential future impacts on Bitcoin's price trajectory.
by walkin
在腳本中搜尋"美国m2历年数据"
Global M2 YoY % Change (USD)M2 Global Money Supply in USD terms for nations with historical available past ~10 years, year over year % change.
Global M2 Money Supply (USD)M2 Global Money Supply in USD terms for nations with historical available past ~10 years.
Global M2 Index Percentage### **Global M2 Index Percentage**
**Description:**
The **Global M2 Index Percentage** is a custom indicator designed to track and visualize the global money supply (M2) in a normalized percentage format. It aggregates M2 data from major economies (e.g., the US, EU, China, Japan, and the UK) and adjusts for exchange rates to provide a comprehensive view of global liquidity. This indicator helps traders and investors understand the broader macroeconomic environment, identify trends in money supply, and make informed decisions based on global liquidity conditions.
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### **How It Works:**
1. **Data Aggregation**:
- The indicator collects M2 data from key economies and adjusts it using exchange rates to calculate a global M2 value.
- The formula for global M2 is:
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2. **Normalization**:
- The global M2 value is normalized into a percentage (0% to 100%) based on its range over a user-defined period (default: 13 weeks).
- The formula for normalization is:
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3. **Visualization**:
- The indicator plots the M2 Index as a line chart.
- Key reference levels are highlighted:
- **10% (Red Line)**: Oversold level (low liquidity).
- **50% (Black Line)**: Neutral level.
- **80% (Green Line)**: Overbought level (high liquidity).
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### **How to Use the Indicator:**
#### **1. Understanding the M2 Index:**
- **Below 10%**: Indicates extremely low liquidity, which may signal economic contraction or tight monetary policy.
- **Above 80%**: Indicates high liquidity, which may signal loose monetary policy or potential inflationary pressures.
- **Between 10% and 80%**: Represents a neutral to moderate liquidity environment.
#### **2. Trading Strategies:**
- **Long-Term Investing**:
- Use the M2 Index to assess global liquidity trends.
- **High M2 Index (e.g., >80%)**: Consider investing in risk assets (stocks, commodities) as liquidity supports growth.
- **Low M2 Index (e.g., <10%)**: Shift to defensive assets (bonds, gold) as liquidity tightens.
- **Short-Term Trading**:
- Combine the M2 Index with technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) for timing entries and exits.
- **M2 Index Rising + RSI Oversold**: Potential buying opportunity.
- **M2 Index Falling + RSI Overbought**: Potential selling opportunity.
#### **3. Macroeconomic Analysis**:
- Use the M2 Index to monitor the impact of central bank policies (e.g., quantitative easing, rate hikes).
- Correlate the M2 Index with inflation data (CPI, PPI) to anticipate inflationary or deflationary trends.
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### **Key Features:**
- **Customizable Timeframe**: Adjust the lookback period (e.g., 13 weeks, 26 weeks) to suit your trading style.
- **Multi-Economy Data**: Aggregates M2 data from the US, EU, China, Japan, and the UK for a global perspective.
- **Normalized Output**: Converts raw M2 data into an easy-to-interpret percentage format.
- **Reference Levels**: Includes key levels (10%, 50%, 80%) for quick analysis.
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### **Example Use Case:**
- **Scenario**: The M2 Index rises from 49% to 62% over two weeks.
- **Interpretation**: Global liquidity is increasing, potentially due to central bank stimulus.
- **Action**:
- **Long-Term**: Increase exposure to equities and commodities.
- **Short-Term**: Look for buying opportunities in oversold assets (e.g., RSI < 30).
---
### **Why Use the Global M2 Index Percentage?**
- **Macro Insights**: Understand the broader economic environment and its impact on financial markets.
- **Risk Management**: Identify periods of high or low liquidity to adjust your portfolio accordingly.
- **Enhanced Timing**: Combine with technical analysis for better entry and exit points.
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### **Conclusion:**
The **Global M2 Index Percentage** is a powerful tool for traders and investors seeking to incorporate macroeconomic data into their strategies. By tracking global liquidity trends, this indicator helps you make informed decisions, whether you're trading short-term or planning long-term investments. Add it to your TradingView charts today and gain a deeper understanding of the global money supply!
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**Disclaimer**: This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions.
US M2### Relevance and Functionality of the "US M2" Indicator
#### Relevance
The "US M2" indicator is relevant for several reasons:
1. **Macro-Economic Insight**: The M2 money supply is a critical indicator of the amount of liquidity in the economy. Changes in M2 can significantly impact financial markets, including equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
2. **Trend Identification**: By analyzing the M2 money supply with moving averages, the indicator helps identify long-term and short-term trends, providing insights into economic conditions and potential market movements.
3. **Trading Signals**: The indicator generates bullish and bearish signals based on moving average crossovers and the difference between current M2 values and their moving averages. These signals can be useful for making informed trading decisions.
#### How It Works
1. **Data Input**:
- **US M2 Money Supply**: The indicator fetches the US M2 money supply data using the "USM2" symbol with a monthly resolution.
2. **Moving Averages**:
- **50-Period SMA**: Calculates the Simple Moving Average (SMA) over 50 periods (months) to capture short-term trends.
- **200-Period SMA**: Calculates the SMA over 200 periods to identify long-term trends.
3. **Difference Calculation**:
- **USM2 Difference**: Computes the difference between the current M2 value and its 50-period SMA to highlight deviations from the short-term trend.
4. **Amplification**:
- **Amplified Difference**: Multiplies the difference by 100 to make the deviations more visible on the chart.
5. **Bullish and Bearish Conditions**:
- **Bullish Condition**: When the current M2 value is above the 50-period SMA, indicating a positive short-term trend.
- **Bearish Condition**: When the current M2 value is below the 50-period SMA, indicating a negative short-term trend.
6. **Short-Term SMA of Amplified Difference**:
- **14-Period SMA**: Applies a 14-period SMA to the amplified difference to smooth out short-term fluctuations and provide a clearer trend signal.
7. **Plots and Visualizations**:
- **USM2 Plot**: Plots the US M2 data for reference.
- **200-Period SMA Plot**: Plots the long-term SMA to show the broader trend.
- **Amplified Difference Histogram**: Plots the amplified difference as a histogram with green bars for bullish conditions and red bars for bearish conditions.
- **SMA of Amplified Difference**: Plots the 14-period SMA of the amplified difference to track the trend of deviations.
8. **Moving Average Cross Signals**:
- **Bullish Cross**: Plots an upward triangle when the 50-period SMA crosses above the 200-period SMA, signaling a potential long-term uptrend.
- **Bearish Cross**: Plots a downward triangle when the 50-period SMA crosses below the 200-period SMA, signaling a potential long-term downtrend.
### Summary
The "US M2" indicator provides a comprehensive view of the US M2 money supply, highlighting significant trends and deviations. By combining short-term and long-term moving averages with amplified difference analysis, it offers valuable insights and trading signals based on macroeconomic liquidity conditions.
Money Flow DivergenceThe Money Flow Divergence indicator is designed to help traders identify periods when there is a significant divergence between the growth of the U.S. M2 money supply and the S&P 500 index (SPX).
This divergence can provide insights into potential market turning points, making it a valuable tool for long-term investors and traders looking to capitalize on macroeconomic trends.
How It Works:
Data Sources:
S&P 500 Index (SPX) and U.S. M2 Money Supply.
Calculating Growth Rates:
SPX Growth: The script calculates the percentage growth of the S&P 500 index by comparing the current closing price with the previous period's closing price.
M2 Growth: Similarly, it calculates the percentage growth of the U.S. M2 money supply by comparing the current value with the previous period's value.
Growth Gap/Delta:
Growth Gap: The core of the indicator is the "growth gap" or "delta," which is the difference between the M2 money supply growth and the SPX growth. This gap indicates whether liquidity in the economy (represented by M2) is outpacing or lagging behind the performance of the stock market.
Interpretation:
Positive Gap (Green Bars): When the M2 growth outpaces SPX growth, the gap is positive, indicating that there is more liquidity in the system than what is being reflected in the stock market. This scenario often signals potential upward momentum in the market, making it a good time to consider buying.
Negative Gap (Red Bars): When the SPX growth outpaces M2 growth, the gap is negative, suggesting that the market may be overextended relative to the available liquidity. This can be a warning sign of potential market corrections or downturns.
Visualization:
The indicator plots the growth gap as a histogram with bars colored based on the gap value:
Green Bars: Indicate a positive gap where M2 growth is higher than SPX growth.
Red Bars: Indicate a negative gap where SPX growth is higher than M2 growth.
The bars are thickened for better visibility, and a horizontal line at zero is plotted to help users easily distinguish between positive and negative gaps.
How To Use It:
Time Frame Selection: Users can select the desired time frame (e.g., monthly, weekly) for the data. This flexibility allows traders to analyze the indicator over different periods, depending on their investment horizon.
Monthly time frames seem to work best.
Interpreting the Indicator:
Bullish Signals: Look for sustained periods of positive growth gaps (green bars), which may indicate a favorable environment for buying or holding long positions.
Bearish Signals: Be cautious during periods of negative growth gaps (red bars), which could signal overvaluation in the market or potential pullbacks.
Enjoy and let me know if you have any questions.
Global Leaders M2Introducing the Global Leaders M2 Indicator
The Global Leaders M2 indicator is a comprehensive tool designed to provide you with crucial insights into the money supply (M2) of the world's top 10 economic powerhouses. This powerful indicator offers a wealth of information to help you make informed decisions in the financial markets.
Key Features:
Multi-Country M2 Data: Access M2 data for the world's top 10 economic leaders, including China, the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, Russia, and India.
Rate of Change Analysis: Understand the rate of change in M2 data for each country and the overall global aggregate, allowing you to gauge the momentum of monetary supply.
Customizable Display: Tailor your chart to display the data of specific countries, or focus on the total global M2 value based on your preferences.
Currency Selection: Choose your preferred currency for displaying the M2 data, making it easier to work with data in your currency of choice.
Interactive Overview Table: Get an overview of M2 data for each country and the global total in an interactive table, complete with color-coded indicators to help you quickly spot trends.
Precision and Clarity: The indicator provides precision to two decimal places and uses color coding to differentiate between positive and negative rate of change.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or a newcomer to the world of finance, the Global Leaders M2 indicator equips you with valuable data and insights to guide your financial decisions. Stay on top of global monetary supply trends, and trade with confidence using this user-friendly and informative tool.
BTC x M2 Divergence (Weekly)### Why the "M2 Money Supply vs BTC Divergence with Normalized RSI" Indicator Should Work
IMPORTANT
- Weekly only indicator
- Combine it with BTC Halving Cycle Profit for better results
The "M2 Money Supply vs BTC Divergence with Normalized RSI" indicator leverages the relationship between macroeconomic factors (M2 money supply) and Bitcoin price movements, combined with technical analysis tools like RSI, to provide actionable trading signals. Here's a detailed rationale on why this indicator should be effective:
1. **Macroeconomic Influence**:
- **M2 Money Supply**: Represents the total money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Changes in M2 reflect liquidity in the economy, which can influence asset prices, including Bitcoin.
- **Bitcoin Sensitivity to Liquidity**: Bitcoin, being a digital asset, often reacts to changes in liquidity conditions. An increase in money supply can lead to higher asset prices as more money chases fewer assets, while a decrease can signal tightening conditions and lower prices.
2. **Divergence Analysis**:
- **Economic Divergence**: The indicator calculates the divergence between the percentage changes in M2 and Bitcoin prices. This divergence can highlight discrepancies between Bitcoin's price movements and broader economic conditions.
- **Market Inefficiencies**: Large divergences may indicate inefficiencies or imbalances that could lead to price corrections or trends. For example, if M2 is increasing (indicating more liquidity) but Bitcoin is not rising proportionately, it might suggest a potential upward correction in Bitcoin's price.
3. **Normalization and Smoothing**:
- **Normalized Divergence**: Normalizing the divergence to a consistent scale (-100 to 100) allows for easier comparison and interpretation over time, making the signals more robust.
- **Smoothing with EMA**: Applying Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to the normalized divergence helps to reduce noise and identify the underlying trend more clearly. This double-smoothed divergence provides a clearer signal by filtering out short-term volatility.
4. **RSI Integration**:
- **RSI as a Momentum Indicator**: RSI measures the speed and change of price movements, indicating overbought or oversold conditions. Normalizing the RSI and incorporating it into the divergence analysis helps to confirm the strength of the signals.
- **Combining Divergence with RSI**: By using RSI in conjunction with divergence, the indicator gains an additional layer of confirmation. For instance, a bullish divergence combined with an oversold RSI can be a strong buy signal.
5. **Dynamic Zones and Sensitivity**:
- **Good DCA Zones**: Highlighting zones where the divergence is significantly positive (good DCA zones) indicates periods where Bitcoin might be undervalued relative to economic conditions, suggesting good buying opportunities.
- **Red Zones**: Marking zones with extremely negative divergence, combined with RSI confirmation, identifies potential market tops or bearish conditions. This helps traders avoid buying into overbought markets or consider selling.
- **Peak Detection**: The sensitivity setting for detecting upside down peaks allows for early identification of potential market bottoms, providing timely entry points for traders.
6. **Visual Cues and Alerts**:
- **Clear Visualization**: The plots and background colors provide immediate visual feedback, making it easier for traders to spot significant conditions without deep analysis.
- **Alerts**: Built-in alerts for key conditions (good DCA zones, red zones, sell signals) ensure traders can act promptly based on the indicator's signals, enhancing the practicality of the tool.
### Conclusion
The "M2 Money Supply vs BTC Divergence with Normalized RSI" indicator integrates macroeconomic data with technical analysis to offer a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's market conditions. By analyzing the divergence between M2 money supply and Bitcoin prices, normalizing and smoothing the data, and incorporating RSI for momentum confirmation, the indicator provides robust signals for identifying potential buying and selling opportunities. This holistic approach increases the likelihood of capturing significant market movements and making informed trading decisions.
Global M2 Liquidity [TheAlchimist]🌍 Global M2 Liquidity – Navigating the Quantum Field of Markets 🌍
Category: Macroeconomic Indicators 📊
"In quantum physics, the observer effect states that the mere act of observation changes the system being observed. Similarly, in financial markets, global liquidity acts as a quantum field that permeates all market states simultaneously. Just as Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle suggests we cannot precisely measure both position and momentum, the M2 money supply’s influence on market dynamics creates a complex web of cause and effect across multiple timeframes."
📈 Overview
The Global M2 Liquidity indicator is a powerful tool that tracks the combined M2 money supply from five major economies (US, EU, China, Japan, UK), converted to USD 💵, offering a panoramic view of global liquidity conditions. With multi-timeframe analysis and a customizable forward-shift feature, it empowers traders to anticipate market movements driven by liquidity trends.
✨ Features
- Global Coverage 🌎: Monitors M2 money supply from 5 major economic regions (US, EU, China, Japan, UK).
- Real-Time Conversion 💱: Converts all data to USD for consistent analysis.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis ⏰: Tracks liquidity from 15-minute to weekly charts.
- Forward-Shift Capability 🔮: Aligns M2 data with future price action for predictive insights.
- Color-Coded Trends 🎨: Visualizes liquidity trends (🟢 Expansion, 🔴 Contraction).
🚀 How to Use
1. Main Line 📉: Displays total global M2 liquidity in trillions of USD.
2. Golden Moving Average ⭐: Identifies the overall trend direction.
3. Trend Colors 🟢🔴:
- Green: Liquidity expanding above the moving average (bullish for risk assets).
- Red: Liquidity contracting below the moving average (bearish signal).
4. Forward Shift ⏩: Use the shift parameter to align M2 data with price action for predictive analysis.
5. Combine with Price Action 🔍: Correlate liquidity trends with assets like Bitcoin, stocks, or forex for strategic entries/exits.
⚙️ Settings
- MA Period 📏: Length of the moving average (default: 50).
- Shift ⏳: Number of days to shift data forward (default: 60).
🏷️ Tags
#Trading #Macroeconomic #M2Liquidity #GlobalLiquidity #MoneySupply #MultiTimeframe #TrendAnalysis #PredictiveAnalysis #Forex #Stocks #Crypto #Bitcoin #RiskAssets #CentralBanks #USD #TheAlchimist #QuantumTrading #AlgoTrading #DayTrading #SwingTrading
Accurate Global M2 (Top10 GDP, FX-Stabilized)This script was created to solve the serious distortions found in other circulating "Global M2" indicators.
Many previous versions used noisy daily FX rates, unweighted country data, mixed liquidity categories (e.g., RRP, TGA), or aggregated low-quality sources, causing exaggerated or misleading charts.
This version fixes those problems by:
Using Top 10 global economies only (based on GDP).
GDP-weighting each country's M2 contribution.
Fetching monthly-averaged M2 data.
Applying monthly FX conversions to eliminate daily volatility noise.
Forward-shifting the M2 line (default 90 days) to study potential Bitcoin correlations.
Keeping the math clean, without mixing central bank liquidity tools with broad M2 aggregates.
As a result, this script provides a more realistic and stable representation of global M2 expansion in USD terms, more suitable for serious macroeconomic analysis and Bitcoin market correlation studies.
for your comparison: Global M2 Money Supply // Days Offset =📈 Global M2 Money Supply Overlay – Offset Adjustable
This script plots an aggregated, FX-adjusted global M2 money supply index directly on your TradingView chart. It pulls M2 data from multiple global regions—including North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, and more—and normalizes it for comparison in USD terms.
You can apply a custom time offset to the M2 line using the settings, allowing you to test potential leading or lagging correlations between global liquidity and market price action (e.g., Bitcoin, equities, commodities).
💡 Ideal for macro traders, long-term investors, and anyone interested in liquidity-driven market behavior.
Features:
Combines M2 data from 20+ countries and currency zones
FX-adjusted for consistency in USD terms
Offset slider to shift M2 data forward or backward in time
Scaled to trillions for readability
Plots directly on the main chart for visual comparison
Global M2 Money+ Supply Input Lead (USD)Global M2 Money Supply + INR+CAD Input Lead (USD)
This indicator calculates the global M2 money supply in USD by aggregating M2 data from multiple economies, converted to USD using their respective exchange rates. It overlays the scaled M2 data on the chart with a user-defined time shift to analyze potential correlations with asset prices, such as Bitcoin. The indicator is designed to help traders assess global liquidity trends with a customizable lead or lag.
Countries Included:
Eurozone (EUM2)
North America: United States (USM2), Canada (CAM2)
Non-EU Europe: Switzerland (CHM2), United Kingdom (GBM2), Finland (FIM2), Russia (RUM2)
Pacific: New Zealand (NZM2)
Asia: China (CNM2), Taiwan (TWM2), Hong Kong (HKM2), India (INM2), Japan (JPM2), Philippines (PHM2), Singapore (SGM2)
Latin America: Brazil (BRM2), Colombia (COM2), Mexico (MXM2)
Middle East: United Arab Emirates (AEM2), Turkey (TRM2)
Africa: South Africa (ZAM2)
Input for Lead/Lag:
Time Shift (days): Adjust this input to shift the M2 data forward (positive values) or backward (negative values) on the chart. For example, setting a lead of 85 days shifts the M2 data 85 days into the future, helping traders analyze potential leading indicators for price movements.
Annualizer: New Indicator + CPI AnalysisThis indicator calculates the annualized month-over-month percent change of a cumulative index and plots it alongside the year-over-year percent change for comparison. It was developed for the purpose of analyzing the inflation rate of CPI indexes such as “CPIAUCSL.” It can also be used on M2 money supply and pretty much any cumulative index. It will not produce useful outputs on percent change indexes such as “USCCPI” because it performs percent change calculations which are already applied to those indexes.
This indicator takes data from the monthly chart, regardless of how often the data is reported or what the timeframe of the current chart is. Doing so allows it to work on all timeframes while displaying only monthly data outputs but limits it from recognizing data which might be released more often than once per month. This limitation should be suitable for macroeconomic data such as CPI and M2 money supply which are usually analyzed on a month-to-month basis.
If the ticker symbol is "M2SL" which is M2 money supply, annualized percent change is plotted in green, otherwise, it’s plotted in blue.
CPI analysis:
Upon deploying this indicator, it was observed that the year-over-year (YoY) inflation rate (red) is a lagging indicator of the annualized month-over-month (MoM) inflation rate (blue) and that it appears to almost be a moving average of it. A moving average plot was temporarily added for comparison to the YoY and it was found that the difference between the two plots is negligible and that for the purposes of high-level analysis of inflation, the two plots can be considered to be no different from one another. Below is a screenshot for demonstration. Notice how closely the white 12-month SMA of the annualized rate tracks the YoY rate.
For other indexes which may see more dramatic changes month-over-month such as M2 money supply, the difference between the two signals becomes more pronounced but they are still comparable. The conclusion is that the YoY inflation rate can be considered to be a 12-month simple moving average of the annualized MoM rate.
12-month SMA:
It’s easy to see and stands to reason that if the annualized MoM inflation rate (blue) remains where it has been for the previous 2 months YoY inflation (red) will begin falling and eventually reach similar levels due to its moving-average-like behavior. This will bring us back to the 2% YoY inflation target of the Fed within no more than 10 months. There may be a perception that deflation is required to bring prices back down to the purple channel of CPI to make prices pre-Covid "normal" again. We were headed in that direction in July with a slightly negative MoM CPI read. What may have freaked investors out about the August report (most recent as of this writing) is that the inflation rate, rather than continuing into negative deflationary territory, has bounced back into positive territory.
M2 money supply isn’t an integral part of this analysis, but it helps demonstrate the indicator. It can be observed that CPI growth lags M2 money supply growth which seems to have leveled off.
I’m not a macroeconomist so I’m probably missing some things, but I do not see a lagging indicator such as YoY inflation being at 8.25% while annualized MoM inflation is at 1.42% as something to freak out about as investors have seemingly done. I’m a stock market bear as of last week, but I do not feel this CPI analysis strongly supports a bearish thesis, nor is it bullish. Next month’s annualized MoM % change may begin to sway me one way or the other depending on what this chart looks like when it’s updated.
DECODE Global Liquidity IndexDECODE Global Liquidity Index 🌊
The DECODE Global Liquidity Index is a powerful tool designed to track and aggregate global liquidity by combining data from the world's 13 largest economies. It offers a comprehensive view of financial liquidity, providing crucial insights into the underlying currents that can influence asset prices and market trends.
The economies covered are: United States, China, European Union, Japan, India, United Kingdom, Brazil, Canada, Russia, South Korea, Australia, Mexico, and Indonesia. The European Union accounts for major individual economies within the EU like Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, etc.
Key Features:
1. Customizable Liquidity Sources
Include Global M2: You can opt to include the M2 money supply from the 13 listed economies. M2 is a broad measure of money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds, and other time deposits. (Note: Australia uses M3 as its primary measure, which is included when M2 is selected for Australia).
Include Central Bank Balance Sheets (CBBS): Alternatively, or in addition, you can include the total assets held by the central banks of these economies. Central bank balance sheets expand or contract based on monetary policy operations like quantitative easing (QE) or tightening (QT).
Combined View: If you select both M2 and CBBS, and data is available for both, the indicator will display an average of the two aggregated values. If only one source type is selected, or if data for one type is unavailable despite both being selected, the indicator will display the single available and selected component. This provides flexibility in how you define and analyze global liquidity.
2. Lead/Lag Analysis (Forward Projection):
Lead Offset (Days): This feature allows you to project the liquidity index forward by a specified number of days.
Why it's useful: Global liquidity changes can often be a leading indicator for various asset classes, particularly those sensitive to risk appetite, like Bitcoin or growth stocks. These assets might lag shifts in liquidity. By applying a lead (e.g., 90 days), you can shift the liquidity data forward on your chart to more easily visualize potential correlations and identify if current asset price movements might be responding to past changes in liquidity.
3. Rate of Change (RoC) Oscillator:
Year-over-Year % View: Instead of viewing aggregate liquidity, you can switch to a Year-over-Year (YoY%) Rate of Change (ROC) oscillator.
Why it's useful:
Momentum Identification: The ROC highlights the speed and direction of liquidity changes. Positive values indicate liquidity is increasing compared to a year ago, while negative values show it's decreasing.
Turning Points: Oscillators make it easier to spot potential accelerations, decelerations, or reversals in liquidity trends. A cross above the zero line can signal strengthening liquidity momentum, while a cross below can signal weakening momentum.
Cycle Analysis: It helps in assessing the cyclical nature of liquidity provision and its potential impact on market cycles.
This indicator aims to provide a clear, customizable, and insightful measure of global liquidity to aid traders and investors in their market analysis.
Global M2 10-Week Lead (for bitcoin)This script displays a combined view of the Global M2 Money Supply, converted to USD and adjusted with a configurable forward lead (default 10 weeks). It is designed to help visualize macro liquidity trends and anticipate potential impacts on Bitcoin price movements across any timeframe.
🔹 Main Features:
- Aggregates M2 data from 18 countries and regions including the USA, Eurozone, China, Japan, and more.
- All M2 values are converted to USD using respective exchange rates.
- Customizable “Slide Weeks Forward” setting lets you project global liquidity data into the future.
- Works on all timeframes by adjusting the projection logic dynamically.
- Toggle each country’s data on or off to customize the liquidity model.
💡 Use Case:
Global liquidity is often a leading indicator for major asset classes. This tool helps traders and analysts assess macro-level trends and their potential influence on Bitcoin by looking at changes in M2 money supply worldwide.
💡 Inspired By:
This tool mimics the Global M2 10-Week Lead liquidity indicator often referenced by Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, used for macro analysis and Bitcoin movement prediction.
📊 Note:
All economic and FX data is sourced from TradingView’s built-in datasets (ECONOMICS and FX_IDC). Data availability may vary depending on your plan.
Bitcoin as % Global M2 signalThis script provides signal system:
Buy signal: each time the YoY of the Global M2 rises more than 2.5% while the distance between the bitcoin price as a percentage of the Global M2 is below its yearly SMA.
Sell signal: the distance between the bitcoin price as a percentage of the Global M2 and its yearly SMA is > 0.7
This is a very simple system, but it seems to work pretty well to ride the bitcoin price cycle wave.
The parameters are hard coded but they can be easily changed to test different levels for both the buy and sell signals.
Global M2 YoY % Increase signalThe script produces a signal each time the global M2 increases more than 2.5%. This usually coincides with bitcoin prices pumps, except when it is late in the business cycle or the bitcoin price / halving cycle.
It leverages dylanleclair Global M2 YoY % change, with several modifications:
adding a 10 week lead at the YoY Change plot for better visibility, so that the bitcoin pump moreless coincides with the YoY change.
signal increases > 2.5 in Global M2 at the point at which they occur with a green triangle up.
Forex Macro Metrics [MacroGlide]"Forex Macro Metrics " is a powerful tool for analyzing macroeconomic metrics, designed to help traders make more informed decisions in the forex market. This indicator displays key economic indicators such as interest rates, money supply (M1 and M2), unemployment rate, and government debt for various currencies and their pairs, allowing users to assess the macroeconomic differences between the base and quote currencies.
Key Features:
• Interest Rates Display: Includes interest rates for major world currencies with the ability to show the differential between the base and quote currencies.
• Money Supply Analysis (M1 and M2): Displays the money supply for both the base and quote currencies, including differential calculations.
• Unemployment Rate: Compares the unemployment rates between currencies, showing the differences on the chart.
• Government Debt: Shows government debt levels for the base and quote currencies with differential calculations.
• Customizable Options: Enable/disable specific metrics and adjust colors for better visual clarity.
How to Use:
• Select a Currency Pair: Apply the indicator to your chart and choose the desired currency pair. The indicator will automatically load the relevant data for the base and quote currencies.
• Adjust Display Settings: Use the indicator settings to enable or disable specific metrics and their differentials.
• Analyze the Data: Compare the economic conditions of the two currencies through the charts and identify potential trading opportunities based on macroeconomic differences.
Methodology:
The indicator uses economic data available through TradingView tickers to calculate the values of the base and quote currencies. Differentials are calculated by subtracting the values of the quote currency from the base currency, allowing for a visual assessment of their differences. The displayed data includes historical changes, helping to identify trends and potential reversal points.
Originality and Usefulness:
"Forex Macro Metrics " is a unique tool that combines several key macroeconomic indicators into one comprehensive indicator. This simplifies the analysis process for traders looking to understand the fundamental differences between currencies. Using this approach provides an advantage in assessing long-term trends and potential shifts in currency pairs driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions.
Charts:
The indicator displays data in the form of lines and areas on the chart, with interest rates shown as lines for the base and quote currencies, accompanied by an area representing the differential. For money supply (M1 and M2), lines are drawn for each currency, with areas highlighting the differences. Similarly, the unemployment rate and government debt are displayed with clear visual separation of the data and their differentials, making it easy to compare and analyze the macroeconomic conditions of the currencies involved.
Enjoy the game!
Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% ChangeIntroducing the "Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% Change" indicator, a tool designed to offer traders and analysts an understanding of global liquidity dynamics.
This indicator tracks the Return on Investment (ROI) percentage changes across major central banks' balance sheets, providing insights into shifts in global economic liquidity not tied to cumulative figures but through ROI calculations, capturing the pulse of overall economic dynamics.
Key Enhancements:
ROI Period Customization: Users can now adjust the ROI calculation period, offering flexibility to analyze short-term fluctuations or longer-term trends in central bank activities, aligning with their strategic time horizons.
Chart Offset Feature: This new functionality allows traders to shift the chart view, aiding in the alignment of data visualization with other indicators or specific analysis needs, enhancing interpretive clarity.
Central Bank Selection: With options to include or exclude data from specific central banks among the world's top 15 economies (with the exception of Mexico and the consolidation of the EU's central bank data), traders can tailor the analysis to their regional focus or diversification strategies.
US M2 Option: Recognizing the significance of the M2 money supply as a liquidity metric, this indicator offers an alternative view focusing solely on the US M2, allowing for a concentrated analysis of the US liquidity environment.
Comprehensive Coverage: The tool covers a wide array of central banks, including the Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, European Central Bank, and more, ensuring a broad and inclusive perspective on global liquidity.
Visualization Enhancements: A histogram plot vividly distinguishes between positive and negative ROI changes, offering an intuitive grasp of liquidity expansions or contractions at a glance.
This indicator is a strategic tool designed for traders who seek to understand the undercurrents of market liquidity and its implications on global markets.
Whether you're assessing the impact of central bank policies, gauging economic health, or identifying investment opportunities, the "Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% Change" indicator offers a critical lens through which to view the complex interplay of global liquidity factors.
Global M2 + BTCUSD (90-day displacement)the Global M2 and the BTCUSD charts with a 90-day relative displacement
Excess Liquidity IndicatorExcess Liquidity Indicator
This script visualizes excess liquidity trends in relation to risk assets. It estimates excess liquidity by combining various macroeconomic factors such as WW M2 money supply, central bank balance sheets, and interest rates, oil, and the dollar index, and it substracts WW GDP. The tool helps traders analyze liquidity-driven market trends in a structured manner.
Note: This script is for research purposes only and does not provide financial advice.
I cannot point names cause I get banned but work is inspired by others...
Recession Warning Traffic LightThis is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession.
GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods in the chart above.
RED will show a full-on warning level for that particular recession indicator, signaling that monitoring of this sector is clearly showing a problem – which has in the past, reliably exhibited itself as a forewarning of recessions.
Adding green and red together can help determine a combined probability of recession.
IMPORTANT: Your chart should be on 1d and set to SPX , DJI ,or NDQ indices
Precious metals: This indicator calculates the relative prices of Gold & rhodium. Gold is a flight-to-quality asset. Rhodium is the rarest of precious industrial metals and prices spike when the economy is heating up. In front of a recession, the upper relative movement of rhodium precedes gold.
Stock markets: This indicator compares closing prices to growth rate curves of the SPX. This indication is the noisiest but tells us very well when the recession has ended. Stock market indices, which respond to “smart money” moving out of markets when the other indicators begin to warn of recession, or when markets become overheated and rise to historically unsustainable levels.
Yield curve: This indicator compares the 3m & 10y treasuries and detects yield curve inversions. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve and by the purchasers in the Federal Treasury auction markets, which together create the treasury yield curve. This inversion is the most reliable recession indicator. These happen during a flight to quality.
Federal Reserve: This indicator measures GDP and detects contraction which is technically a recession. This is usually one of the last indicators to enter a Warning state, and it could be 6 months delayed simply confirming what may have already been projected.
Money Supply. This indicator measures the M2 money supply, which typically grows about 1% per calendar quarter. When this shrinks, it's tapping the brakes on the economy. This can also lead to yield curve inversion. This is also a measure of inflation and its effects on the aggregate money supply (liquid capital) available for short-term economic activity, or which can be directed into the purchase of long-term, less liquid assets.
Leading Economic factors: There is a whole basket of leading economic indicators that, as collections, reflect overall growth or contraction of economic activity. These indicators include measures of level and growth in productivity, employment, housing, consumer confidence, industrial purchasing confidence, and much more. These indicators may or may not be detached from the broader economy, and often provide up to 6 months of foresight. For more information please visit www.conference-board.org
Actual Recession: Central Bank indicators are published by the Federal Reserve and reflect their own analysis of national and regional economic health, as well as their calculations of the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve has a recession ticker which is used to plot periods of actual recessions on this indicator for comparison.
