Compression-to-Expansion Early Warning (CEEWS)The Compression → Expansion Early Warning System (CEEWS) is a volatility-structure and market-timing indicator designed to identify periods of statistical price compression and to signal when that compression transitions into directional expansion. Rather than predicting direction in advance, CEEWS focuses on detecting when price action becomes tightly constrained and then confirms when stored energy begins to release.
CEEWS quantifies compression using a composite of volatility contraction, range tightening, candle overlap, and reference-level convergence, producing a normalized Build score (0–100) that reflects the degree of latent price pressure. Elevated Build values indicate that the market is coiled and increasingly susceptible to movement, while expansion signals occur only when volatility begins to expand and price breaks from its recent range.
The indicator is intended as a timing and transition tool, not a standalone trend or directional system. CEEWS is most effective when paired with broader regime or trend-health indicators and is particularly well suited for index funds and highly liquid markets, where prolonged consolidation phases often precede sharp directional moves. Its primary purpose is to help traders identify when the market is likely to move, not to forecast where it will go.
