Market State Intelligence [Interakktive]Market State Intelligence (MSI) is a diagnostic market-context indicator that reveals how the market is behaving — not where price "should" go.
MSI does not generate buy/sell signals. Instead, it classifies market conditions into clear behavioural regimes by continuously measuring:
- DRIVE (directional effort)
- OPPOSITION (absorption / resistance)
- STABILITY (structural persistence)
MSI is designed to answer three practical questions:
- What state is the market in right now?
- Is energy building, releasing, or decaying?
- Is participation aligned with price, or opposing it?
█ WHAT MSI DOES
MSI operates as a real-time regime classification engine that processes each closed bar through three independent measurement systems:
DRIVE — Directional Effort (0–100)
- Displacement efficiency (net progress vs total path)
- Range expansion quality (actual range vs expected ATR range)
- Body dominance (body vs candle range)
OPPOSITION — Absorption / Resistance (0–100)
- Wick pressure (rejection relative to attempt)
- Effort–result gap (high effort, low progress)
- Reversal density (counter-moves frequency)
STABILITY — Persistence (0–100)
- Condition persistence (how long conditions hold)
- Variance score (flip frequency)
- Follow-through consistency (reaction continuity)
These three forces feed a deterministic classifier with hysteresis (anti-flicker) to identify five regimes:
COMPRESSION — low drive, low opposition, higher stability (pressure building, direction unclear)
EXPANSION — high drive, low opposition (directional energy release)
TREND — medium-high drive, higher stability, low-medium opposition (healthy continuation)
DISTRIBUTION — medium drive, high opposition (effort absorbed; progress blocked)
TRANSITION — rapidly rising opposition, low stability (regime breakdown / uncertainty)
█ WHAT MSI DOES NOT DO
- No buy/sell signals, entries/exits, or performance claims
- No prediction of future direction
- No repainting: calculations use closed-bar data only
MSI is a market state layer intended to support your execution framework.
█ VISUAL SYSTEM
MSI uses a layered visual grammar designed to remain readable on live charts:
Regime Ribbon
A thin horizontal band showing the current regime via colour. Ribbon opacity reflects regime confidence (stronger confidence = more visible).
Pressure Envelope (core visual)
A soft corridor around price that expands with Drive and becomes more visible as Opposition increases. This visualises "pressure thickness" around current action (not a volatility band for entries).
Structural Memory
Faint background stains appear where regimes previously failed (e.g., expansion collapsing into absorption). These are behavioural context zones showing where market intention was rejected — not support/resistance.
Regime Change Markers (optional)
Subtle labels appear when regimes transition after confirmation. Useful for replay and education.
Effort Halo (optional)
Candle highlighting when Opposition materially exceeds Drive, indicating absorption/inefficiency.
█ HUD PANEL
The HUD displays:
- Current regime name + colour indicator
- A context gate showing whether conditions are aligned with long-bias or short-bias context (not an entry/exit system)
█ REGIME LEGEND
When enabled, displays:
- A one-line definition of the current regime
- Live Drive / Opposition / Stability values for interpretation
█ TIME-TO-DECISION METER
A visual pressure gauge that tends to fill during Compression (energy building) and drain during Expansion (energy releasing). It is a state-tracking meter, not a timing tool.
█ SETTINGS
MSI — Settings
- Preset Mode: Scalper / Swing / Position
- Analysis Mode (Minimal): ON = subtle visuals, OFF = full intensity
- Regime Ribbon, Structural Memory, HUD Panel, Time-to-Decision Meter, Effort Halo
MSI — Visual Options
- Show Regime Changes: Labels when regime transitions occur
- Show Regime Legend: Definition and live values display
- Panel Position: Move the entire panel anywhere on chart
MSI — Advanced (Tuning)
- Sensitivity (0.5–2.0)
- Smoothing (0.5–2.0)
- Memory Decay (0.5–2.0)
- Visual Intensity (Low / Medium / High)
█ PRESETS EXPLAINED
Scalper
Higher sensitivity + lower smoothing + faster memory decay. Best for 1m–15m monitoring.
Swing (default)
Balanced behaviour. Best for 15m–4H analysis.
Position
Lower sensitivity + higher smoothing + slower memory decay. Best for 4H–1D macro context.
█ STRUCTURAL MEMORY
When a regime fails (example: Expansion → Distribution), MSI creates a memory imprint:
- Fixed stain window (preset dependent)
- Strength decays over time
- Limited to a maximum number of imprints to reduce chart clutter
These zones represent behavioural rejection, not levels.
█ SUITABLE MARKETS
MSI is designed for Forex, Crypto, Indices, Stocks, and Commodities.
Works from intraday to Daily, with particularly strong readability on 15m–4H.
█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, trading recommendations, or solicitation. Trading involves substantial risk. Always use proper risk management and make independent decisions.
Volatilityregime
Volume Weighted Volatility RegimeThe Volume-Weighted Volatility Regime (VWVR) is a market analysis tool that dissects total volatility to classify the current market 'character' or 'regime'. Using a Linear Regression model, it decomposes volatility into Trend, Residual (mean-reversion), and Within-Bar (noise) components.
Key Features:
Seven-Stage Regime Classification: The indicator's primary output is a regime value from -3 to +3, identifying the market state:
+3 (Strong Bull Trend): High directional, upward volatility.
+2 (Choppy Bull): Moderate upward trend with noise.
+1 (Quiet Bull): Low volatility, slight upward drift.
0 (Neutral): No clear directional bias.
-1 (Quiet Bear): Low volatility, slight downward drift.
-2 (Choppy Bear): Moderate downward trend with noise.
-3 (Strong Bear Trend): High directional, downward volatility.
Advanced Volatility Decomposition: The regime is derived from a three-component volatility model that separates price action into Trend (momentum), Residual (mean-reversion), and Within-Bar (noise) variance. The classification is determined by comparing the 'Trend' ratio against the user-defined 'Trend Threshold' and 'Quiet Threshold'.
Dual-Level Analysis: The indicator analyzes market character on two levels simultaneously:
Inter-Bar Regime (Background Color): Based on the main StdDev Length, showing the overall market character.
Intra-Bar Regime (Column Color): Based on a high-resolution analysis within each single bar ('Intra-Bar Timeframe'), showing the micro-structural character.
Calculation Options:
Statistical Model: The 'Estimate Bar Statistics' option (enabled by default) uses a statistical model ('Estimator') to perform the decomposition. (Assumption: In this mode, the Source input is ignored, and an estimated mean for each bar is used instead).
Normalization: An optional 'Normalize Volatility' setting calculates an Exponential Regression Curve (log-space).
Volume Weighting: An option (Volume weighted) applies volume weighting to all volatility calculations.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Capability: The entire dual-level analysis can be run on a higher timeframe (using the Timeframe input), with standard options to handle gaps (Fill Gaps) and prevent repainting (Wait for...).
Integrated Alerts: Includes 22 comprehensive alerts that trigger whenever the 'Inter-Bar Regime' or the 'Intra-Bar Regime' crosses one of the key thresholds (e.g., 'Regime crosses above Neutral Line'), or when the 'Intra-Bar Dominance' crosses the 50% mark.
Caution: Real-Time Data Behavior (Intra-Bar Repainting) This indicator uses high-resolution intra-bar data. As a result, the values on the current, unclosed bar (the real-time bar) will update dynamically as new intra-bar data arrives. This behavior is normal and necessary for this type of analysis. Signals should only be considered final after the main chart bar has closed.
DISCLAIMER
For Informational/Educational Use Only: This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
Use at Your Own Risk: All trading decisions you make based on the information or signals generated by this indicator are made solely at your own risk.
No Guarantee of Performance: Past performance is not an indicator of future results. The author makes no guarantee regarding the accuracy of the signals or future profitability.
No Liability: The author shall not be held liable for any financial losses or damages incurred directly or indirectly from the use of this indicator.
Signals Are Not Recommendations: The alerts and visual signals (e.g., crossovers) generated by this tool are not direct recommendations to buy or sell. They are technical observations for your own analysis and consideration.
