The message is CLEAR - stay away from this sector !!!!
You have been warned - many content creators in the hope of pushing for viewership are blabbering about how hot the HK/China stock market will be. I agree that it is no longer about valuation but more on momentum. Many newbies have no idea how to invest in the stock market and are BLINDLY following the herds.......buying at high price to chase for tech, consumer staples, etc
The FOMO effect is at its all time high.......Even lifestyle bloggers who have never dabble in stock market are also sharing their "expert knowledge" on buying the stocks now. All kinds of fake/half truths about how some make 5-6 figures in a few days and how some are selling their houses to raise cash and show hand at this "once a lifetime" opportunity.
I do not know for sure if this rally is sustainable though I am vested in many of these stocks but followers would know I had been buying since the last 12 months or so when the valuation is much much cheaper and thus I have a wider margin of safety compared to buying it now.
It is likely going to be volatile when next Tuesday market open , possibly causing many stocks to halt trading (once hit 10% intraday) or even causing the system to crash . Too many people want to queue and buy. Who is selling ? Those who had held the shares and wanted to get out. They may get out only to get in later as they see that the price is going higher and they want a piece of this cake as well. So this will push the price higher much like a snow ball effect and the last to catch - good luck to you !
I am bearish on the property sector and been digesting the many news I have gathered thus far and doubt the measures by the government will resolve the issues - oversupply of properties, aging population, high unemployment - these are not issues that any government can solve within a year or two. Many countries like Japan, Korea, Singapore , Thailand too face the aging population and all sorts of carrots - longer maternity leaves, cash incentives, etc have failed to move the fertility rate higher. I start to see the dots connecting about the recent increase in the retirement age in China. What if the funds are insufficient in the coffer to pay out to the retirees? So they have to buy time or kick the can down the road..........
Only the property developers and the agents have the vested interest to push for the properties - be it new launch or resale units. Most homeowners who already have their homes are sitting on the fence or are suffering from not able to pay their mortgage payment and face the consequence of their houses being foreclosed.
Lastly, do not borrow money or go on margin or buy leverage products to bet on this rally. Only play with money you can afford to lose . Remember, HIGH RISK, HIGH RETURNS but most only see the last two words and totally forgot about the first two words - HIGH RISK. What if you are wrong ? What is your safety net ? Think rationally and not get overly emotional in the game of investment especially in this age of social media.
The FOMO effect is at its all time high.......Even lifestyle bloggers who have never dabble in stock market are also sharing their "expert knowledge" on buying the stocks now. All kinds of fake/half truths about how some make 5-6 figures in a few days and how some are selling their houses to raise cash and show hand at this "once a lifetime" opportunity.
I do not know for sure if this rally is sustainable though I am vested in many of these stocks but followers would know I had been buying since the last 12 months or so when the valuation is much much cheaper and thus I have a wider margin of safety compared to buying it now.
It is likely going to be volatile when next Tuesday market open , possibly causing many stocks to halt trading (once hit 10% intraday) or even causing the system to crash . Too many people want to queue and buy. Who is selling ? Those who had held the shares and wanted to get out. They may get out only to get in later as they see that the price is going higher and they want a piece of this cake as well. So this will push the price higher much like a snow ball effect and the last to catch - good luck to you !
I am bearish on the property sector and been digesting the many news I have gathered thus far and doubt the measures by the government will resolve the issues - oversupply of properties, aging population, high unemployment - these are not issues that any government can solve within a year or two. Many countries like Japan, Korea, Singapore , Thailand too face the aging population and all sorts of carrots - longer maternity leaves, cash incentives, etc have failed to move the fertility rate higher. I start to see the dots connecting about the recent increase in the retirement age in China. What if the funds are insufficient in the coffer to pay out to the retirees? So they have to buy time or kick the can down the road..........
Only the property developers and the agents have the vested interest to push for the properties - be it new launch or resale units. Most homeowners who already have their homes are sitting on the fence or are suffering from not able to pay their mortgage payment and face the consequence of their houses being foreclosed.
Lastly, do not borrow money or go on margin or buy leverage products to bet on this rally. Only play with money you can afford to lose . Remember, HIGH RISK, HIGH RETURNS but most only see the last two words and totally forgot about the first two words - HIGH RISK. What if you are wrong ? What is your safety net ? Think rationally and not get overly emotional in the game of investment especially in this age of social media.
註釋
this sector could appeal to some investors who believe in the "turn around sector" coined by Peter Lynch, the legendary investor. Believing that it will not be completely wipe out (property is 25-30% of China's GDP) and the government is doing all it can to support it. The question is how long will it takes to turn around and you could be getting in way too early and hold up your available capital which can be deployed elsewhere for better returns.
Since I am already vested in the 2800 tracker fund which comprises of some property developers, I will not invest into this sector separately until the dust has settled........
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