Apple’s iPhone 16 Launch: Post-Event Pullback?

9月9日Looking at the weekly chart (1W) of Apple (AAPL) with the vertical lines marking the dates of iPhone launch events, we can attempt to identify a more consistent pattern around these events.

Key Observations:

Pre-Launch Price Rally: In nearly all the iPhone launch events, we observe a notable pre-event rally. This suggests that investors tend to buy Apple stock in anticipation of the product reveal, leading to upward momentum in the weeks leading up to the launch. Magnitude of Rally: In many cases, the stock gains significant value leading up to the event, as investors and traders speculate on the success of the new product.

Post-Launch Behavior: Short-Term Pullbacks: A clear pattern emerges where, immediately after the event, Apple's stock often experiences a pullback or consolidation. This appears to be a classic "sell the news" reaction, where investors who had bought the stock in anticipation of the event sell to lock in profits. For example, following the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 launches, we saw short-term pullbacks lasting a few weeks. Long-Term Trend Continuation: Despite the short-term corrections, the long-term trajectory of AAPL tends to remain upward. After most iPhone launches, even if there is a post-event pullback, the stock eventually resumes its upward trend. This long-term bullish trend suggests that Apple’s underlying business remains strong, supported by sustained iPhone sales and other product lines.

More Defined Patterns: Pre-Launch Rally: Across most launches (iPhone 6, 7, X, and 12 in particular), the stock rallies leading up to the event by 10-15% on average. This suggests a strong investor confidence buildup before the actual product reveal. Post-Event Decline: In many instances (notably the iPhone 6s, 7, and 12), there is a consistent 5-10% decline after the launch. This sell-off usually lasts a few weeks to a couple of months, after which the stock resumes its longer-term upward trajectory.

Current iPhone 16 Presentation (Today): Pre-Event Setup: Currently, AAPL has shown some weakness in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 16 presentation. The stock has pulled back slightly, breaking the pattern of a strong pre-launch rally seen in previous years. Technical Indicators: The MACD is showing some bearish momentum, which suggests that the stock might be due for a further pullback post-launch, consistent with the historical pattern of profit-taking after these events.

Potential Short-Term and Long-Term Strategy: Short-Term: Given the clear pattern of a post-event pullback, traders might anticipate a brief decline following today’s iPhone 16 presentation. This would align with the past pattern where Apple stock typically declines by 5-10% after the launch. Long-Term: Despite short-term volatility, Apple’s long-term uptrend has remained intact. Investors who are more focused on the long-term may consider any post-launch correction as a buying opportunity, as AAPL tends to resume its upward trend within a few weeks to months after these events.

Conclusion: The most consistent pattern around Apple’s iPhone launch events is a pre-launch rally followed by a post-launch pullback. This sell-the-news behavior often creates a short-term decline, but Apple’s long-term growth trajectory remains strong. For today’s iPhone 16 presentation, based on historical data, we may see a similar short-term correction, but long-term investors could view this as an opportunity to add to their positions.