$ABNB sliding moat; slumpy housing market + recession incoming

3月11日

- ABNB has a sliding moat problem
- slumpy housing market + recession incoming should lead to compressed multiple

- ABNB used to be wall street poster child and commanded premium multiple but that moat is no longer here.

- BKNG is the OG of travel booking.
- ABNB is useful only when you are travelling in a big group where booking rooms in a hotel becomes expensive.

- Nothing unique about ABNB, Verbo offers same thing and many hotel aggregator has started showing individual properties owned by owner.

- Regulation in cities in favour of long term tenants is welcomed as it will help in easing inflation for rental units which is always sticky.

- Technicals looks like a wedge which should break to the downside. Ideally, ABNB should trade below $85 to look compelling investment.

- Otherwise avoid this stock

5月21日

註釋

- Spain banning ABNB in the country which will lead to reduction in revenue significantly.

- At this point, regulation seems to be the biggest hurdle for the stock.

- There is no USP (Unique selling point) for $ABNB. You will be better off buying BKNG if you want exposure to leisure and travel industry

5月21日

註釋

Fundamentally,

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 4.17 | 4.83 | 5.67 | 7.43
EPS% | 4.95% | 15.77% | 17.47% | 31.04%

For a company with receding moat growing EPS @ mid teens forward p/e should be around 15

Stock price with forward p/e = 15

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 4.17 | 4.83 | 5.67 | 7.43
Stock $ | $62.55 | $72.45 | $85.05 | $222 ( eps growth is 30% in 2028 f p/e=30)