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AMDs not done

已更新

For the most 2024, AMD has taken a seat back in the market - being up less than 6% YTD - while wall street AI darling has enjoyed major growth, rallying up over 140% YTD. Although AMD is known for having one of the most overvalued Forward P/E ratios, from a technical perspective and overall market outlook for Q4 2024, I think there is still some room for AMD to climb higher.

Since Q4 2022, AMD has remained within this rising channel testing support and resistance in a series of higher highs and higher lows, and currently sits at a key support area on the weekly chart. AMD's 246B "miniscule" market cap compared to NVDA's 2.9T requires less trading volume to see a significant move up, and with rate cuts tipped in the markets favor for Q4, I think we can easily see a 175$ - 185$ AMD by years end. It’s also good to see that Trading View’s current analyst rating sports AMD as a “buy”, while the average 1Y price forecast sits at 186$.

A lot of people cover this so stock so I will be looking to cover this on a weekly basis. Best of luck!

註釋

Looking at the daily chart, AMD looks to have formed a double bottom and is on its way to fill the gap. These will be the two scenarios I'll be looking at in terms of price movement

註釋

weekly close above the trendline

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green AMD while market bleeds. love to see it

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ok that was a great week for us here at AMD. We are sitting on this area of support and i expect us to hold here before the bounce up to 175$

註釋

AMD gap filled here, lets see if we can hold this support

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this current set up looks great for a trend continuation

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beautiful!

175$ by next week?

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nearly touched 175. stay on your toes as market reacted negatively following the CPI data and AMD investor news

i think we can hold this area

but got to stay vigilant the trend remains our friend for now

註釋

nice little bounce on AMD, i think we can keep climbing higher

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trend is officially broken here upon ASML new, stay safe

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still within the weekly chanel im feeling bullish for the upcoming earnings i think a small call position could potentially capture a ~12% move

交易進行

picked up a small call position today with plans to close at open and capture a potential earnings pop. Extremely risky but i think AMD has a lot left in the tank.

手動結束交易

WHAT A MOVE . im happy to say that i closed my main position before the bell and avoided the heartbreak that ALOT of traders felt in the after hours today. What a disappointment from AMD.

I positioned myself with short term calls on the 28th and rode the pre-earnings pop till 10 minutes before close today. I decided to sell as i was up over 108% and thought it was responsible to de risk. so i restructured with 37% of that profit and got far OTM calls with more time.

This allowed me to pocket the difference and be exposed to AMD in case we did pop.

Assuming the call becomes a total loss i will pocket 71% gain and im happy!

i did the responsible thing despite slightly FOMOing a bit and avoided catastrophe.

Experience pays! in the future i will resturcte with less capital to lock in more profit say 20-25% intead of the 37%

註釋

we may break below this channel post earnings. and I'll be monitoring AMD closely to see how the week ends