American Superconductor - Floating Crystals, Floating Candles
已更新
The new rage on financial social media is that a new room temperature superconductor has been discovered, and appears to be replicable in labs.
This is significant because superconductors normally have to be either really hot or really cold during their operations.
So, AMSC has Superconductor in its name and is naturally pumping, and has been since May.
The biggest pump was August 1 at 60%, spurred on my a lot of social media chatter, especially in Korean and Chinese.
Greed in the markets is already at extremes, people are convinced new all time highs on indexes are as good as in the bank, and it's very dangerous.
Moreover, you're dealing with hidden geopolitical risks from a Chinese Communist Party being on the edge of collapse that's guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa meditation's 100 million practitioners.
And people want to long the top on stuff that's already up 400%+.
The world truly is an asylum.
And look at the monthly bar this has produced with people longing a daily range between $14 and $17.
The weekly candle looks more sane, because at least we're on Tuesday, but it still shows that this swing may have already topped.
So, here's the thing about the fundamentals of this kind of trade:
1. The Superconductor discovery right now is a piece of lead apatite crystal that is capable of majority levitation and diamagnetism when placed on a magnetic plate.
2. The crystal has been made by students in a lab using a paper from Korea.
3. It looks like a little piece of graphite/charcoal. Unless you put it on a magnetic plate, it doesn't even float.
4. Let's say the crystal is truly revolutionary, how many years away from it making its way into a sellable product are you?
5. Why would you think American Superconductor Corporation is going to be the one who licenses something disruptive?
6. Wouldn't TSM, Intel, or AMD, or some Elon Musk/Peter Thiel/Sam Altman-type venture be the ones to steal it?
7. The stock has already quadrupled in price
8. At Tuesday's close, the market cap is $488 billion
9. Look at their earnings results: they bring in $25 million in revenue quarterly
10. Next ER is August 9 post-market. Can you maintain a $500 million market cap when they report $20 million in revenue and the CEO tells investors and banks on the conference call that they aren't going to be able to profit from the discovery?
In essence, you're kind of dealing with a real corporation that's being subjected to something of a Bed Bath and Beyond-style pump and dump.
And this is at a time when greed in the markets is already extreme. People are longing the top on things like Palantir and SOFI without second thought and gettin' paid daily.
Yet the United States credit rating was downgraded today after the Treasury said it wanted to issue another $1.8 trillion worth of debt, and now the Nasdaq and the SPX are gap down on Wednesday futures open.
I discuss this here:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
I actually think there's a long trade on ASMC over $20 before the hypenstein is over.
But if you don't see it manifest at market open Wednesday and prices lower than $13.31 are traded as the indexes drive a lot of things down, you're probably going back to $10 first, which is just horrific for top longers.
Take a look at the five minute chart.
Tuesday market close was either a big buy or 45 minutes before market close was a big short.
You have to decide for yourself. But sell the news, man, is really a piece of wisdom.
After all, implied volatility is so high that an August 18 at the money call is $4.10, on a $16 stock.
That's a lot of premium and the options sellers just absolutely love your exit liquidity.
This is significant because superconductors normally have to be either really hot or really cold during their operations.
So, AMSC has Superconductor in its name and is naturally pumping, and has been since May.
The biggest pump was August 1 at 60%, spurred on my a lot of social media chatter, especially in Korean and Chinese.
Greed in the markets is already at extremes, people are convinced new all time highs on indexes are as good as in the bank, and it's very dangerous.
Moreover, you're dealing with hidden geopolitical risks from a Chinese Communist Party being on the edge of collapse that's guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa meditation's 100 million practitioners.
And people want to long the top on stuff that's already up 400%+.
The world truly is an asylum.
And look at the monthly bar this has produced with people longing a daily range between $14 and $17.
The weekly candle looks more sane, because at least we're on Tuesday, but it still shows that this swing may have already topped.
So, here's the thing about the fundamentals of this kind of trade:
1. The Superconductor discovery right now is a piece of lead apatite crystal that is capable of majority levitation and diamagnetism when placed on a magnetic plate.
2. The crystal has been made by students in a lab using a paper from Korea.
3. It looks like a little piece of graphite/charcoal. Unless you put it on a magnetic plate, it doesn't even float.
4. Let's say the crystal is truly revolutionary, how many years away from it making its way into a sellable product are you?
5. Why would you think American Superconductor Corporation is going to be the one who licenses something disruptive?
6. Wouldn't TSM, Intel, or AMD, or some Elon Musk/Peter Thiel/Sam Altman-type venture be the ones to steal it?
7. The stock has already quadrupled in price
8. At Tuesday's close, the market cap is $488 billion
9. Look at their earnings results: they bring in $25 million in revenue quarterly
10. Next ER is August 9 post-market. Can you maintain a $500 million market cap when they report $20 million in revenue and the CEO tells investors and banks on the conference call that they aren't going to be able to profit from the discovery?
In essence, you're kind of dealing with a real corporation that's being subjected to something of a Bed Bath and Beyond-style pump and dump.
And this is at a time when greed in the markets is already extreme. People are longing the top on things like Palantir and SOFI without second thought and gettin' paid daily.
Yet the United States credit rating was downgraded today after the Treasury said it wanted to issue another $1.8 trillion worth of debt, and now the Nasdaq and the SPX are gap down on Wednesday futures open.
I discuss this here:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
I actually think there's a long trade on ASMC over $20 before the hypenstein is over.
But if you don't see it manifest at market open Wednesday and prices lower than $13.31 are traded as the indexes drive a lot of things down, you're probably going back to $10 first, which is just horrific for top longers.
Take a look at the five minute chart.
Tuesday market close was either a big buy or 45 minutes before market close was a big short.
You have to decide for yourself. But sell the news, man, is really a piece of wisdom.
After all, implied volatility is so high that an August 18 at the money call is $4.10, on a $16 stock.
That's a lot of premium and the options sellers just absolutely love your exit liquidity.
註釋
Well, lads, that's $2 down in a few minutes on a $17 stock that was up 400%+ and makes $25 million a quarter.Pump and dumps suck.
註釋
The play with this is to give Elon Musk another 5 or 6 days to fill his bags.Then wait for when he Xeets about LK99 SuPeRCoNduCTor being used in Cybertruck.
註釋
If you want to gamble on Superconductors, the number is probably under $7.But BRKR is a real company and arguably a better target for a pump.
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