看多

APD - a stalwart trending up -- LONG @ 321.97

已更新

APD (not to be confused with ADP) is in the midst of a pullback in a strong uptrend. The white lines mark 6 month highs and lows, and the 6 month Trend Strength Indicator is at .88 (0-1 scale) and has been in that vicinity since August.

It's also a top 20 (top 3%) big cap composite score stock for me, reflecting a robust backtest history (almost 1900 trades going back to 1968), solid outperformance (.11%/day held), quick turnaround on trades (13 days avg - that's really solid for a stock with that many trades that cover whole market meltdown periods), and low trading system max drawdown (worst is < 9% since 1968).

It can get streaky and go down for a couple of weeks at a time and has done so twice in the last 6 months, so it's definitely an average in type of trade. Full disclosure, this is a hypothetical trade for me - my portfolio is full of petulant stocks that don't want to go up right now so I'm capped. But a daily return on almost 1900 trades going back over 50 years that's almost 3x the S&P's long term daily average is worth sharing.

In theory, per my usual strategy, l add at the close on any day it is still oversold and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.

As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.

P.S. The chart should look better than that but for some reason, what it looks like when I hit publish and what shows up after I do haven't always been the same lately, for some reason.

交易進行

If I were trading it and the price is lower at the close than it was at yesterday's close I'd add another lot. I'll update this after the close if it is.

註釋

I sold my 2-day position in at the close and replaced it with 1 lot of this at 320.18 so I'm in this one for real now. Lot 1 has an * because that's a hypothetical lot since I didn't trade it for real until today.

Lots held:

Lot 1* - 321.97
Lot 2 - 320.18

註釋

Added another lot just before the close at 316.50.

Lots held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50

註釋

Added lot 4 at 315.21 today. 6 down days in a row is a rough patch for sure, but not that unusual for this stock. Still well within the bounds of the regression channel and won't be challenging support until it gets into the 300-305 range.

Lots held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21

註釋

Well this one sure isn't acting like its typical rockstar self lately. That's 7 consecutive down days now. Added lot 5 at the close for 312.36.

Lots held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36

註釋

8 is (not) great - but I added another lot at 310.8211 before the close today.

Lots held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36
Lot 6: 310.8211

註釋

Well how do you like that? I ACTUALLY got to sell something from an idea at a profit this week. Just an abysmal week of trading for me. If I was paraskevidekatriaphobic, I'd blame the bad end to the trading week on that, but I'm not so I'll just say that sometimes things just work out that way.

Lot 6 was closed today at 312.31 for a 0.48% gain in one trading day.

Lots still held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36

Happy Friday the 13th y'all!

註釋

Well, some good news for this bad news trade. APD wasn't on my algo screen as a buy when I set up my end of day trades yesterday, so it wasn't until after hours when I saw that it had become a buy. I tried to get a fill at yesterday's closing price and couldn't. I got filled pre-market at 305.83, so I saved myself almost a dollar a share vs. where I'd have bought it yesterday. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, I guess. Then again, maybe it goes down another $5 today and I'd have been better off not realizing what happened. Oh well. I have time and so far the original lot is only down around 5%, so hopefully one really good day (eventually) could make most of this position profitable.

Lots still held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36
Lot 6: 305.83

註釋

I feel like a broken record - down again today and added lot 7 at 304.00 just before the close today.

Lots still held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36
Lot 6: 305.83
Lot 7: 304.00

註釋

I was traveling yesterday and just too tired to update yesterday. Added lot 8 at 295.31 at the close.

Lots still held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36
Lot 6: 305.83
Lot 7: 304.00
Lot 8: 295.31

註釋

12 down days in 13 tries. VERY impressive, APD. Added again at 293.17.

Lots still held:
Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36
Lot 6: 305.83
Lot 7: 304.00
Lot 8: 295.31
Lot 9: 293.17

註釋

Finally an up day! All we needed was the threat of a government shutdown, lol. Sold Lot 9 at the close for 294.99: +0.62% in 1 day

Lots still held:

Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36
Lot 6: 305.83
Lot 7: 304.00
Lot 8: 295.31

5 天前

註釋

Sold lot 8 for 296.02 at the close - a 0.24% gain in 4 trading days.

Lots still held:

Lot 1*: 321.97
Lot 2: 320.18
Lot 3: 316.50
Lot 4: 315.21
Lot 5: 312.36
Lot 6: 305.83
Lot 7: 304.00

redwingcoach