Aptus Rising Channel Pattern with Prior Triple Bottom Pattern

5月26日

APTUS : Rising Channel Pattern with Prior Triple Bottom Pattern Signals Major Reversal - Could This Be the Next Multi-Bagger?

Pattern Recognition & Base Formation:

APTUS presents a compelling technical setup with a Triple Bottom reversal pattern formed at the ₹267-275 support zone. This pattern, completed over several months from late 2024 to early 2025, represents one of the most reliable bullish reversal formations in technical analysis.

The stock has also carved out a distinct ascending triangle pattern with the upper trendline acting as dynamic resistance around ₹340-350 levels. The recent breakout above this consolidation zone, accompanied by increased volume participation, signals a potential trend change from the prolonged correction phase.

Key Technical Levels Analysis:

Critical Support Levels:
- Immediate Support: ₹330-335 (recent breakout consolidation)
- Major Support: ₹290-295 (triple bottom neckline and 50% retracement)
- Ultimate Support: ₹267-275 (triple bottom base - absolute floor)

Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: ₹359 (marked horizontal resistance zone)
- Next Target: ₹380-385 (psychological resistance before ATH)
- Ultimate Target: ₹401.65 (all-time high retest)
- Extension Target: ₹420-430 (measured move from triple bottom pattern)

Volume Profile Assessment:

The volume pattern shows significant improvement during the recent bounce from the triple bottom lows. Today's volume at 900.31K represents a 44% increase from the 20-day average, indicating institutional interest returning to the stock.

The volume during the formation of the triple bottom showed classic accumulation characteristics - high volume on declines (smart money buying) and lower volume on any bounces, until the recent breakout attempt.

Technical Pattern Breakdown:

Primary Pattern: Triple Bottom Reversal
- Formation Period: December 2024 - February 2025
- Support Base: ₹267-275
- Neckline: ₹290-295
- Measured Target: ₹350+ (already achieved), next target ₹420-430

Secondary Pattern: Ascending Triangle
- Formation Period: February 2025 - Present
- Base: Rising support from ₹275 to ₹330
- Apex: ₹340-350 resistance zone
- Breakout Status: In progress with volume confirmation pending

Trade Setup Strategy:

Setup Classification: Reversal Play with Pattern Confirmation

Entry Approaches:
- Aggressive Entry: ₹340-345 (current levels on any minor dip)
- Conservative Entry: ₹330-335 (on pullback to breakout support)
- Value Entry: ₹290-295 (if neckline retest occurs - lower probability)

Position Management:
- Initial Position: 1-1.5% portfolio allocation
- Add-on Levels: ₹330-335 (if pullback materialises)

Profit Booking Strategy:
- Target 1: ₹365-370 (6-8% upside) - Book 25% position
- Target 2: ₹385-390 (12-15% upside) - Book 40% position
- Target 3: ₹410-420 (20-25% upside) - Book remaining 35%

Risk Management:
- Tight Stop: ₹325 (5-6% downside for aggressive traders)
- Swing Stop: ₹310 (10% downside for position traders)
- Pattern Stop: ₹285 (below neckline - invalidates bullish thesis)

Sector & Fundamental Backdrop:

Housing finance companies are experiencing renewed interest due to:
- Improving real estate cycle momentum
- Regulatory clarity on lending norms
- Credit growth revival in retail segments
- Government policy support for affordable housing

Risk-Reward Assessment:

Bullish Catalysts:
- Triple bottom completion - highly reliable reversal signal
- Volume expansion during the recent bounce
- Sector tailwinds supporting fundamentals
- Technical breakout from months of consolidation
- Strong support base established at ₹270 levels

Risk Factors:
- Overall market volatility could impact momentum
- NBFC sector sensitivity to interest rate changes
- Need to sustain above ₹340 to confirm breakout
- High beta nature amplifies market moves

Bottom Line:

APTUS offers an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity with the completion of a triple bottom reversal pattern. The stock appears to be in the early stages of a potential trend reversal after months of base building.

The most prudent approach would be to initiate positions around current levels (₹340-345) with a tight stop below ₹325, targeting the ₹365-370 zone initially. Any pullback to the ₹330-335 support area would present an even better entry opportunity.

The key technical milestone will be a decisive break and hold above ₹350, which would likely trigger the next leg of the move toward the ₹380-400 zone. Until then, trade with defined risk parameters and respect the established support levels.

Keep in the Watchlist.
NO RECO. For Buy/Sell.

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Disclaimer: "I am not SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.

5月27日

交易進行

Aggressive Entry: ₹340-345 (current levels on any minor dip) Active
Made Inside Day.

5月28日

註釋

Down -1.15% From RECO
ABOVE Immediate Support: ₹330-335 (recent breakout consolidation)

5月29日

註釋

Conservative Entry: ₹330-335 (on pullback to breakout support) Active.
Down -3.15% from RECO