Updated ARKF Possible Support at $47
已更新
I was wrong! the red trendline is what I thought initially was the support trendline. After charting up ARKK, it seems that the lines extending from July would've been better to estimate a bottom. I still regret not selling my leaps on the first initial dead cat bounce and escaping my 70c 1/21/2022 for only a $90 loss. I sold for break even on my 60c 4/16 but for some goddamn reason it didn't cross my mind to sell my leap. I averaged down and my leaps were bought at $690 and $420 respectively. I really want to hold these just for the memesake, but upon looking at the rising treasury yields, I've become quite gay.
I flipped a pretty penny shorting SPY every time it hit my bearish resistance lines, and all my other charts tell me that the dip isn't done dipping. The biggest change here is that upon learning what rising yields does to tech, and that ARKF is tech heavy, my positon has changed in the short term. I plan to sell for a loss and rebuy back in after a confirmed reversal or sideways movement. If I'm lucky, I'll be able to sell at the top tomorrow morning when ARKF hits about $53.
Reason being, if $47 is indeed the bottom, after sideways movement IV will die down and options will be cheaper to buy. Then when it looks like we're out of the woods, I'll start loading up on 4/16 or further calls and leaps. I'm still bullish on the future of fintech.
Lessons learned: there is no perfect chart, and there are multiple levels of support. Trend is your friend. Had I traded my original trendlines, I would've been profitable from last September. The moment trend changes or shit hits the fan, cut losses quick. I did this correctly a while back with PLTR but even after some experience, you can still slip.
I flipped a pretty penny shorting SPY every time it hit my bearish resistance lines, and all my other charts tell me that the dip isn't done dipping. The biggest change here is that upon learning what rising yields does to tech, and that ARKF is tech heavy, my positon has changed in the short term. I plan to sell for a loss and rebuy back in after a confirmed reversal or sideways movement. If I'm lucky, I'll be able to sell at the top tomorrow morning when ARKF hits about $53.
Reason being, if $47 is indeed the bottom, after sideways movement IV will die down and options will be cheaper to buy. Then when it looks like we're out of the woods, I'll start loading up on 4/16 or further calls and leaps. I'm still bullish on the future of fintech.
Lessons learned: there is no perfect chart, and there are multiple levels of support. Trend is your friend. Had I traded my original trendlines, I would've been profitable from last September. The moment trend changes or shit hits the fan, cut losses quick. I did this correctly a while back with PLTR but even after some experience, you can still slip.
註釋
There was a nice white and bold support line at $47 but it looks like my chart didn't save. I also had another yellow bullish trendline starting from December that served as where I initially took no losses on my 4/16 call. 2/26 - 3/2註釋
So I've been playing a lot of SPY for those 3x weekly options, but that's also where I partially went wrong. I charted ARKF and SPY at similar times, where I should've been comparing ARKF to QQQ because they have more correlation between their holdings.
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