ARM holding(s) up, or will traders get the upper hand?

2024年11月16日

ARM released earnings recently, beating both EPS and revenue expectations. Price jumped, also pushed by the general stock frenzy following the US Presidential election the day before the release. Since that, it has been falling. Sure, the frenzy has settled, maybe reality is sinking in. Looking at the last 5 days, here are the hard facts:
ARM: -12,71%
NVDA: -3,83%
AMD: -8,82%
INTC: -7,06%
E-mini PHLX: -3,51%
S&P500: -2,08%

ARM is seriously underperforming its peers and the market, and looking at the chart there is no light in the tunnel. Price is forming a descending triangle, and a breach of the lower band might send it below $100. Yes, the RSI on the daily is approaching oversold, however recent similar situations have only triggered a brief rebound. MACD is negative, 20EMA is about to cross the 50EMA down. On-balance volume is indicating price increases like the one from mid-May to mid-July do not carry the support of volume. Same goes for price drops however, so we need a change in this for it to be useful. ARM has dropped through support after support lately, I would not be surprised if that continues. Even filling the gap from February is not off the table. That would send the stock down to $80… My target is around $97-$95.

2024年12月5日

交易進行

ARM has climed somewhat since day of publish, still keeping well within the decending channel. It is approaching the upper line, which might trigger a push down. Price is moving slowly, little is happening, volume is low. Would expect a move down towards support.

2024年12月21日

註釋

ARM kind of lost the lawsuit with AVGO, here's a summary of impacts on Arm's revenue forecast:

Licensing Challenges:
* Mixed verdict weakens Arm's ability to enforce IP licensing terms.
* Could lead to renegotiations or challenges from other licensees.

Royalty Revenue Risks:
* Royalty growth might be impacted if licensees negotiate more favorable terms.
* Uncertainty in agreements could delay or reduce revenue streams.

Competitive Pressures:
* Qualcomm's strengthened position may erode Arm’s market dominance.
* Potential loss of share in growing sectors like AI and server chips.

Investor Sentiment and Costs:
* Legal uncertainty might lower growth expectations from investors.
* Increased R&D investment may pressure margins but is essential for long-term positioning.

In my book, this is still a short..