ARSUSD: Long pesos, yes...long.

2015年12月22日

Here I am with a little contrarian idea.

There's a nice 15% spread to be filled when comparing the Argentine peso to the other South American economies.
The stock market also took a nose dive and is poised to retrace, since it's possible that live cattle and soybeans will head up from this point (and the Merval has a healthy correlation with those two among other agriculturals, for obvious reasons).

That being said, to my fellow countrymen, this is a nice low risk trade, upside is 15%, downside is merely 2%. Sell dollar for 13, buy back at 10-11, give or take, and or invest in other assets once we reach that target.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

2015年12月24日

註釋

South America going up.

2015年12月29日

註釋

Relative strength speaking, ARS is holding its own. If you took my advice of long ars and short clp, you'd be in some nice profit now.

2016年1月17日

註釋

Spread is finally closed. Looking to short ARS soon.

2016年1月25日

註釋

Another nice spread trade opportunity with CLP. ARS lagging South America currently.

2016年1月29日

註釋

The gap in ARSUSD and CLPUSD is considerably wide. I expect oil to move to the upside, this would boost BRL and ARS for sure. Copper on the other hand, looks extremely choppy, not as clear an uptrend and is up against a high volume node right now. We can take a shot at the spread trade again, long arsusd, short clpusd.