AUDCAD – Bearish Rejection at Key Resistance Zone

AUDCAD is showing signs of weakness near the 0.8980 supply zone after an extended rally. The pair is now reacting to a historically respected resistance area, with bearish momentum building as exhaustion sets in.

🔍 Technical Outlook:
✅ Price rejected at multi-touch resistance around 0.8980

📐 Clean bearish structure forming after wedge-like exhaustion

📉 Expecting a move down toward:

TP1: 0.89365 – recent minor structure

TP2: 0.89080 – key demand zone from early July

TP3: 0.88654 – full measured target from range

📛 Invalidation above: 0.8985

🌍 Fundamental Breakdown:
🇦🇺 Australia:
📉 Softening inflation and retail sales

🏦 RBA cautious with limited appetite for further hikes

🇨🇳 Weak Chinese demand adds pressure on AUD

🇨🇦 Canada:
💪 Supported by rising oil prices and solid employment data

🏦 BoC remains vigilant on inflation, though on hold

🛢️ Strong WTI prices continue to support CAD

⚠️ Risks to the Bearish View:
⚡ Unexpectedly strong China data could boost AUD

📉 Sudden drop in oil prices would hurt CAD

🗣️ Surprise hawkish shift from RBA

🔗 Correlation & Flow:
AUDCAD is a lagging asset, heavily influenced by WTI crude (boosting CAD) and China-linked risk flows (affecting AUD).

Keep an eye on AUDUSD and USDCAD for early signals.

📆 Upcoming Key Events:

🇦🇺 RBA Minutes, Jobs Data, Wages Index

🇨🇦 BoC Business Outlook, CPI Print

🛢️ US Oil Inventories (affects CAD)

🧭 Summary:
🔻 Bias: Bearish
📊 Drivers: Oil strength, RBA caution, CAD resilience
⚠️ Risk: China rebound or oil correction
🕵️ Watch: Canadian CPI + Australian jobs data
📉 Likely to Follow: Oil and AUDUSD/USDCAD macro trends