Bearish Divergence in AUD/JPY: Short Opportunities Now.

2024年10月22日

In the 1-hour timeframe for AUD/JPY, there’s a bearish divergence, with strong support just above and several high-volume zones at lower price levels. For now, I see good short opportunities at a premium price, while later on, the golden Fibonacci area could provide a great entry point for long positions once the price reaches that level. AUDJPY

2024年10月29日

註釋

### Updated Analysis Based on Actual Data:

1. **Quarterly CPI (q/q)**:
- **Forecast**: 1.1%
- **Actual Result**: 0.3%
- **Previous**: 1.0%
- **Implication**: The result is significantly lower than expected and lower than the previous quarter, indicating a decline in quarterly inflation. This could weaken the Australian dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might not rush to raise interest rates.

2. **Yearly CPI (y/y)**:
- **Forecast**: 2.7%
- **Actual Result**: 2.3%
- **Previous**: 2.7%
- **Implication**: The result is below the forecast and the previous yearly data, suggesting a slight decrease in annual inflation. This could reduce the pressure on the RBA to raise rates, potentially weakening the Australian dollar.

3. **Trimmed Mean CPI (q/q)**:
- **Forecast**: 0.9%
- **Actual Result**: 0.8%
- **Previous**: 0.8%
- **Implication**: This result matches the previous quarter but falls below the forecast. As a measure that excludes extreme values, this stability at a low level hints at a slowdown.

### Overall Summary:
Given that all indicators came in below forecasts or remained at low stability, the Reserve Bank of Australia may adopt a less aggressive approach to rate hikes, which could lead to a weakening of the Australian dollar in the near term.

2024年10月31日

交易結束：目標達成

Today, we achieved a significant breakthrough with a strong downside move, reaching a key support level on AUD/JPY. The trade played out beautifully, with a brief rally to the upside before the downtrend took hold. Though it took some time to set up, patience paid off, and we ultimately got the expected result.