AUDNZD Long

2016年1月17日

Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ CPI Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ CPI Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest Dairy Auction should bring a negative result for milk price pouder what should force the RBNZ to act further this year and give up the neutral stance. Further the El Nino should have a much bigger Impact on NZ's Economy than on Australia Economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep the Cash Rate unchanged throughout the year. The only thing i am worried about are the falling coal and iron ore prices what is more related to Australias ToT. Further the weakness surrounding about china is more bad news for the Land Down Under than for NZ because Australia Export round about 33 % to China, while NZ is only within the game with round about 20%.

Technically we are also preparing for a big move higher. This does not mean it could happens this or next week. But should the NZ CPI Figures and Dairy Prices tank, than the RBNZ has to act again. Currently the RBNZ expects CPI to shrink to -0.2%. But as said earlier, I am expecting a drop to -0.5%. Anyway, in the weekly and monthly chart we are forming a nice head and shoulders reversal pattern. What i am also wanted to say is: The iron ore and coal prices what i am worried about has fallen significantly already and the AUD adjusted to them a lot already. Anyway, short term we still have space to go a bit down to my area, but i am not thinking about that the AUD/NZD could test the Parity again. Further when we scroll back in history, we are at one of the most important support zones for this pair, what makes me more confident about it. Please let me know what you think. Thank you! Have a great sunday