AUDUSD Analysis – Falling from the Rising Wedge

6月20日

AUDUSD pair broke below an ascending wedge, a bearish reversal pattern.

Clean rejection from 0.6518, with lower highs and new lower lows confirming bearish momentum.

Price is now sitting below former trendline support, retested and respected as resistance.

Bearish target points toward 0.6400–0.6380 zone, aligning with recent swing lows.

Risk invalidation sits above 0.6520, where structure fails.

Technical Bias: Bearish
Target: 0.6400
Stop-loss zone: Above 0.6520

📊 Current Bias: Bearish
🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving AUDUSD
AUD Fundamentals (Weakening):

Australian jobs data was mixed, and wage growth has plateaued.

RBA remains cautious, with expectations for rate cuts later in 2025.

AUD pressured by China growth risks and weak commodity demand.

Geopolitical drag: Australia-China tensions and weak Chinese retail data from 618 Festival dampen AUD outlook.

USD Fundamentals (Resilient):

USD remains bid on risk-off flows, especially after weak global data and ongoing Middle East tensions.

Fed remains reluctant to cut fast despite disinflation signs – supports the USD.

US data is mixed, but rate cut odds are declining (only one expected in 2025 now per dot plot).

⚠️ Risks to This Bearish View
If China announces new stimulus, AUD could rebound sharply.

A dovish surprise from the Fed (e.g. Powell softening in speeches).

Sharp rebound in risk appetite (e.g. tech-led equity rally).

🗓️ Important Events to Watch
🇨🇳 China industrial profits & PMIs

🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes (July preview hints)

🇺🇸 US Core PCE (June 28)

Global risk tone: watch metals, equities, and geopolitical headlines.

🚀 Which Asset Leads?
AUDUSD is lagging other USD pairs, but will likely lead commodity FX downside if China or metals weaken further.

Watch AUDJPY and EURAUD for further confirmation of risk-off flows and Aussie weakness.

6月23日

交易結束：目標達成