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Buying AUD/USD dips with soft landing narrative in control
With little meaningful US data on the calendar until Thursday, the boost provided to the soft economic landing narrative from Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday likely has room to run. For a cyclical currency such as AUD/USD, that’s good news for bulls.
Monday’s minor pullback looks corrective in nature and may reflect unease at the fluid situation in the Middle East over the weekend, but those concerns have been simmering for months now meaning a major escalation may be required to rattle markets.
While the Australian data calendar is busy with Q2 GDP inputs, monthly inflation indicator and retail sales for July, the brutal truth is they are only minor considerations for traders to consider this week. It’s about the US economic trajectory and left tail risks derived from geopolitics.
Unless the soft landing narrative falls apart, buying dips in AUD/USD is preferred.
Should Monday’s reversal extend to .67612, wait to see how the price initially interacts with the level. Should it hold, consider initiating longs with a tight stop below for protection. The initial trade target would be .67988, the high set on Friday. If it were to go, there’s room for the move to extend to .6871 and 2023 double-top at .6893. If the trade were to work in your favour, consider raising your stop to entry or higher to provide a free shot on upside.
Good luck!
DS
Monday’s minor pullback looks corrective in nature and may reflect unease at the fluid situation in the Middle East over the weekend, but those concerns have been simmering for months now meaning a major escalation may be required to rattle markets.
While the Australian data calendar is busy with Q2 GDP inputs, monthly inflation indicator and retail sales for July, the brutal truth is they are only minor considerations for traders to consider this week. It’s about the US economic trajectory and left tail risks derived from geopolitics.
Unless the soft landing narrative falls apart, buying dips in AUD/USD is preferred.
Should Monday’s reversal extend to .67612, wait to see how the price initially interacts with the level. Should it hold, consider initiating longs with a tight stop below for protection. The initial trade target would be .67988, the high set on Friday. If it were to go, there’s room for the move to extend to .6871 and 2023 double-top at .6893. If the trade were to work in your favour, consider raising your stop to entry or higher to provide a free shot on upside.
Good luck!
DS
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