ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Is Wave 3 Done? If So, Where Will Wave 4 Go?

2015年9月7日

This pair has been on a terrible tumble for a long time! Could it have finally come to a stop now at the 69 cents level? In my previous most recent analysis on this pair I posted 10 days ago (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Reversal? Or More Downside To Go?"), I showed that the wave (v) should've ended at or near the 70 cents level and that if 70 cents did not hold, this pair could tumble towards the 60 cents level. This is what I still think will happen now that 70 cents has been broken. This pair will eventually target near 60 cents before the MAJOR OVERALL down trend is done. But first, I believe that the wave 3 of wave (B) is done at 69 cents level and we will now see a wave BRIEF wave 4 before wave 5 starts and reaches down to 60 cents area. So let's now see why I think this and where I think wave 4 will end.....

The main chart above, I am showing a POSSIBLE POTENTIAL bearish cypher. I label it as POSSIBLE because as of yet, the C point is not set. It could still fall a bit more. But for the cypher pattern to hold, prices can't fall past 0.68619. Or else the cypher will be void. That DOES NOT mean that if that happens, then wave 4 is also void. Even if prices were to fall more, it is still the ending of the wave (v) of 3 happening. It's would be just a matter of where it ends and wave 4 begins. Also notice that the cypher pattern would complete just at or near the Wolfe Wave target line between 72-73 cents area. See below charts for more on the Wolfe Wave pattern.

OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart: Still Bearish

This is the MONTHLY chart I posted 10 days ago. Nothing has changed really.

Here it is with updated price action.....but I removed the AB=CD pattern as prices fell past the CD completion


WEEKLY CHART - Breaking Down Wave (B) With MORE Downside To Come. Wave 3 Finished

DAILY CHART - Wave (v) wave count in ending diagonal + Wolfe Wave. Wave 4 Possible Target


CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
Overall, I am still VERY BEARISH on this pair and am still expecting another 1000 pips to the downside all the way to the 60 cents level where on the MONTHLY chart, I show a POTENTIAL bullish crab to complete. That is also where there is some MAJOR STRUCTURE Levels. But for now, I am taking a LONG position now on this pair as I am expecting that wave 3 is done and wave 4 up will commence. But I will only ride it as far as around the 72-73 cents level at the Wolfe Wave targets and the Cypher completion should the cypher C point hold.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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