PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 MAY 2023

2023年5月10日

Few things went as planned (till 10AM) and after that I was like the deer stuck in the headlights. No way I could believe the rally of 560pts ~ 1.31% from 10.05 to 15.20.
I was having the short-sell bias ever since the bad news broke about MSCI on HDFC-HDFCBANK. So I was kind of happy we had the fall of 553pts in 45mts. I started drawing leg1 of the down rally till 10.55. And seriously hoped we will have a 2nd leg also that will take out the 42576 support today.

Surprisingly the reverse happened, we gained back all the points lost and the momentum showed bullish intent from 14.55. Even the steadiness showed by BANKNIFTY in climbing back the 560pts was commendable. The bulls in India are real tough it seems. We took out 2 resistances 43012 & 43253 from the intraday low.

US released its CPI inflation data which is inline with the expectation set. Whether FED pauses further rate hikes is a question in itself. 

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On the 15mts TF banknifty is trading with a minor positive bias now, the slope of the moving average is a good indicator for this. It seems like the bulls have ignored the blip of 5th May.

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1hr has formed a W shaped pattern (but its not an perfect double bottom). In fact today's 6 green candles gave the change in sentiment. Otherwise we would have seen an M pattern (double top).

Today's closing in US markets will have a deep impact on our expiry tomorrow. As it stands SPX is trading with gains of 0.15%. If we have a 1% or more fall today, it could even reverse the sentiment on banknifty tomorrow.