Banknifty analysis for tomorrow 31 May

5月30日

As we discussed, the Banknifty bearish or Sideways structure market gave a volatile move in range, as we discussed in case 1.

If we look at the chart now:
The market took very nice support from 200 EMA. And it was quite volatile for the whole day. The Price is struggling to break the 50-EMA resistance. The market is going to be sideways in the range of 48487-48899 unless it breaks to the upside (high probability).

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.82, which has risen from 0.63. shows a good amount of PE writing on the lower side. There has been good CE and PE writing at 48500 and 49000. The next support point is 48000 on the lower side and 49500 on the upper side.
People are making Strange for election results.

I am expecting
Case 1: Sideways in the range 48487-48900.
Case 2: if the market breaks 48900 to the upside- Bullish
With a good volatility market in upcoming sessions because VIX is 24.2.

Reason:

1. RSI is 40-60 shows a sideways structure. (Bearish)
   
2. EMA(50) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates indecisive or rather sideways market. The market has taken support from 200 EMA, which might lead to a bullish market in the upcoming session.
   
3. The market has given a good volume spike that shows this level is good support.
   
4. PCR = 0.82 shows good market bullish sign.
   
5. Price> VWAP shows that a bullish market structure can lead to a Bull market.
   

Verdict: Sideways (70% chances) or Bullish (30% chances)

Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 48500 PE & 48900 CE (Hedge it with 50/- premium options)
Case 2: Bullish: Sell 48600 PE (Hedge it with 50/- CE option)