Obligatory BAT Update

已更新

It's time for an update on BATBTC, since it invalidated my short term short idea that I posted before:

I Would Love to Be Bullish on BAT, But Indicators Say Otherwise

This does not mean that it can't drop from here, but that my perspective is neutral at this time. On my previous chart, I did say that we could target the 6000 long term resistance. We made an attempt, but didn't make it up there. Instead, we got stopped at this descending line (marked pink on this chart).

I think it's too dangerous for me to re-enter, and I have other setups that have a higher r/r ratio. This is just to show you what COULD happen, if certain things play out. This is my favorite kind of analysis anyway.

If BAT stays firmly above 4500 (including short lived dips below), it could complete a bull flag that has a target above the descending diagonal resistance in pink. We wicked above that resistance on the big Coinbase pump, but still got rejected there. We'll need a lot more force to break above that and aim for 6000. There will be a TON of sell orders stacked up all the way to 7000. If we break 7000, then we are officially out of this long term trading range and I may look for a new long term position on BAT.

However, on the bearish side of things, if we break down from here and head towards 4000, we will have painted another lower high on the chart. This is certainly a possibility, since we are currently hovering BELOW the previous swing high around 4589 (this was even before the listing pump). Another interesting thing that happened, is that someone market appears to have sold a huge amount recently (big wick down to 1000). Some buyers got very lucky there. However, this could be a sign of a big whale exiting his or her position, thinking that we won't break the range.

Of course I prefer the short scenario, because then I'll be happier with having sold at 4100 and can re-enter once we bottom out again in the low 2000 range, or even lower :) This doesn't mean it WILL happen though.

Be careful!

This is not financial advice, and I am not a qualified financial advisor. This analysis is just a perspective on what could happen with this coin, as I am out of position for now.

-Victor Cobra

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Another possibility is a second Coinbase pump that STILL fails to make a higher high. Watch out for that as well.

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Need to 5600 to go down for the higher high breakout. Still, each pump is weaker than the last. We have decent volume, and the market is showing signs that it wants to recover, but we may need some more consolidation for many alts before any enormous push up. We shall see.

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Looks like it's butting RIGHT up against resistance again. Was rejected today just above 5300, which is a mid-term higher high. This is a fairly good sign that we could try to break out of this resistance once and for all. However, I'd be cautious here, as BAT has continuously dropped hard from this resistance line, particularly after the 2nd or 3rd touch.

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Broken out of the downtrend! As expected, it popped pretty hard when this happened. 5800 has been breached, which was a previous high. It can target 6000+ now.

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Watch for a possible pullback to test resistance as support around 5300. Remember, we are still technically in a giant trading range until we breach 7000. The recent higher high can be a part of this chop, which is why it's important to exercise risk management.

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And this is exactly why I did not re-enter this trade after closing my long at 4100. We wicked above the resistance and went all the way to touch the 6000 area, as I said would probably happen. However, we were IMMEDIATELY rejected and in free-fall mode. My targets for possible re-entering my long are around 3500 and 2600:

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If we can get back above 5300 with conviction and really hold above this ridiculous resistance, then I might change my view. But for now, I wait.

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1500 (new red downtrend line in the above image) is also a buy target, believe it or not. It would be unfortunate for people who bought on this pump if we get down there.

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In the short term, 4420 needs to hold if we're going to see one more test of the highs.

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Good chance for somewhat of a bounce now. If we don't bounce here much, it won't be good news for the price.

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Maybe I should post a new analysis, but looking at the weekly Bittrex chart, it looks like BAT is really trying to break out of this giant flag. It has been in a downtrend against BTC since its exception. Until it breaks this flag and things change, it is not a smart long term investment. This could change very soon though, looking at this perspective.