Bitcoin BTC and Bitcoin Cash BCH still consolidating. What next?

2021年4月21日

Here is a simple chart showing how both BTC and BCH are consolidating after a large move down. While experience tells us that one move down is usually followed by another, we should not expect it. BTC is currently more bearish on the daily and 4-hr charts. While BCH is in an uptrend its price more than doubled in April. Price could pullback more, but the hourly chart is leaning bullish; there will be mixed signals until consolidation breaks.

Study RSI - on both charts, RSI broke 33.33, which usually means that it will stall between 60-66 and make another move down. As you look at other charts (stock or crypto) you will note that 34-40 is a bull support zone in uptrends. RSI rarely breaks 33.33, so it is a strong bearish sign when it does.

BTC price is already moving lower with RSI below 50 and 20sma rounding down; however it is still consolidating. BCH has a flat 20sma is also in a narrowing range, and RSI has not yet tested the 50. These levels, 33.33 and 66.66 were proposed by J. Hayden and only use them on 14-day RSI (not 7-day). They are very useful on a 30m chart for day and swing trading; I find on smaller timeframes, especially with volatile stocks/crypto, the levels are not useful.

2021年4月21日

註釋

If the uptrend is ready to resume, there will be a higher high closing price on the hourly charts.