Predicting the Next Bitcoin 200MA Peak Using Exponential Decay

In my ongoing study of Bitcoin market cycles, I noticed a compelling pattern in the behavior of the 200-day moving average (200MA) across bull markets. Specifically, I observed that the percentage rise of the 200MA from each cycle bottom to cycle top is decreasing over time, and this decline follows an exponential decay pattern.

Historical Observations:
• 2015 Cycle Bottom to 2017 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +686%
• 2018 Cycle Bottom to 2021 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +450%

This pattern suggested to me that the next peak in the 200MA might continue this decaying trajectory. To estimate this, I applied a simple exponential decay model using the two previous data points:

y(t) = A.e^{-kt}

Solving for the next value (t = 2), the model predicts an approximate increase of +296% in the 200MA from the current cycle bottom to the expected peak.

Implication for the Current Cycle:

Assuming the 200MA bottomed around $16,200, a +296% rise implies a target 200MA near:

$16,200 x (1 + 2.96) is approx. $64,000

This aligns remarkably well with the 2021 bull market top, reinforcing the idea that the previous all-time high (~64K–$69K) could serve as a strong macro support level once this cycle matures.

Conclusion:

If this exponential decay pattern continues, we can expect the 200MA to peak around $64,000 during the current bull cycle. This target also coincides with historical resistance turned potential support, making it a critical level for long-term investors and swing traders alike.

This type of decay-based modeling, while not exact, offers a unique lens through which we can assess Bitcoin’s macro behavior across cycles. I’ll continue to monitor how this projection plays out and refine the model with new data as the market evolves.