🔥 Bitcoin Realistic Top Prediction For The Cycle

2021年8月19日

Once in a while I like to discover long-term predictions and analyses for the crypto market. For the current analysis I want to look at (logarithmic) Fibonacci extension lines. I found out that the 1.272 and 2.272 extensions are seemingly very important for the last two cycles. The Fibonacci extension is measured from previous cycle top to next cycle bottom.

During every cycle, Bitcoin sees some form of mid-cycle correction towards the 1.272 extension. This Fibonacci extension then functions as a spring to allow the price rise towards the 2.272 extension. The 2.272 extension predicts a remarkable close top of the cycle.



During the second Bitcoin cycle one can clearly see the price rising above the 1.272 extension, re-testing it and continueing the move towards the 2.272 extension, which was also the top for the cycle.



During the last (third) Bitcoin cycle, you can see the same thing happening. Although the retracement to the 1.272 extension was less potent and of a shorter duration, it still functioned as a spring for BTC. After the re-test the price went all the way up to the 2.272, where that area functioned as a clean indication of the top.

This long-term analysis can be used in conjunction with my other long-term analysis (see above). With the current analysis predicting a cycle top around 215k, it would mean that Bitcoin will top somewhere in February 2022. I come by this conclusion by following the blue line in the analysis above and marking the date where it hits ~215k.

Obviously, this analysis is based on speculation. However, I find the Fibonacci extensions to hold up surprisingly well over the years. Furthermore, it supports my argument that the dip that we saw from May to July was nothing more than a mid-term correction.

Hope you enjoy. Happy trading!