The Alternate Theory

2023年11月18日

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Learn about the Halving Cycles Theory first to get a better understanding of this model right here on the cycle labs page.

This is the Alternate Theory, and it says that cycles are starting to shift to the left by 6 months.

So far this hasn't been true according to price, but let's go through the signs here to determine why it could be.

Every cycle top and bottom has come +/- 21 days from Nov 28th in their respective years, just like the Halving Cycles Theory says they should.

This remains true to this day, but technicals called for different tops and bottoms this past cycle.

The technical top was April 2021, and the technical bottom was in June 2022. Other tops and bottoms were the "double".

You could also argue that the technical first early top (yellow dot 2023) was in April and not July.

Is data trying to tell us that the cycles are about to shift to center around the latest halving? (May 11th, 2020)

If it is let's talk about what this means.

Blue Year would have started in May of this year.

Blue year calls for price to spend most of its time around the median ( half of the previous ATH, $34,500). Which you can say we've done.

It also says that price would advance to new ATHs at the end of the year.

This would mean that price comes close to making new ATHs by May 11th, 2024, and then creates them after that date.

The cycle top could come around May 11th, 2025, and the next bottom around May 11th, 2026.

So far price has not proved any of these theories, only technicals.

Here's how will know which Theory is on track:

The Halving Cycles Theory says new ATHs after Nov 28th, 2024 and the Alternate Theory says May 11th, 2024.