Bitcoin Macro Analysis - Log Curve 2024

2022年8月31日

Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth curves displaying historic price movement since its existence. A lot of discussion now on whether the recent 'top' was a completion of our 4th bullrun or not, my observations below:

What we know:

- Price has touched the upper band of the Log curve at the end of a bullrun, this has happened 3 times in history - highlighted in red
- Price has touched the lower band of the Log curve at the end of bear markets, this has happened at least 3 times in history - highlighted in green
- Price % increases have gotten smaller over time with each bullrun, as is normal with a maturing asset on a Logarithmic scale
- Bitcoin's length (time/bars) of bull runs have been getting longer with each one at 11 bars, 24 bars, 35 bars respectively - highlighted in yellow
- Accumulation zones in green rectangles precede future ATH's

Present situation & unknowns:

- Price has not touched the upper band of the Log curve - highlighted in upper grey circle
- Price has not touched the lower band of the Log curve - highlighted in lower grey circle
- Bitcoin's bullrun, if peaked already, will have decreased in length (1st time in history) relative to past runs, sitting at 27 bars at the peak of 69k - highlighted in lower grey box
- I think to break and go below the bottom band for a longer period of time (low low prices), then it should take un-foreseen negative news in the global economy; I believe current factors are being priced already since Nov/Dec 2021.

If Bitcoin's bull run is still 'in process', then it currently fits the thesis and we could expect an ATH peak in late 2023 or 2024, somewhere around 55-66 bars to completion and a tap of the upper band on the Log curve. If this is the case, we do not want to see a touch of the lower band on the Log curve to further validate this, but it doesn't mean that can't happen.

Or, you can argue we've seen our bullrun already and topped at 69k, many make this argument and it's perfectly fine. If this is the case, however, then in theory we would be nearing our end of a bear market bottom, around 16-17k or perhaps one more lower low to finally bottom on a touch of the lower band of the Log curve then it proceeds to accumulation zone in green box.

Whichever side you are in belief of, the resulting action should be quite similar as an investor/trader imo at this point in time.

Hope this is helpful! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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