It's the fourth time that bitcoin has a major bull run.
To get an idea what to expect now I check what happened the last times:
- Two times after a rally we had a long bear market before prices recovered to old highs. One time we had a major correction which was bought up more quickly.
- The breakout of the bear markets was after a block reward halving.
- When the monthly close price broke the previous bubble close top there was a bull run up.
- When the price broke out, it didnt fall below the breakout price again during the correction
- The price range of the correction was the same like the last 2-3 green monthly candles
Option 1: We could be in a correction like after april 2013: btc would be bought back up and we see a new all time high within next months. For this option we would have to close a monthly candle above 14000 usd.
Option 2: We enter a major bear market in which we should not see prices below 1189 (previous bubble top) usd but might also not fall below 4000 (3 green monthly range). It is likely that this correction / consolidation is a large triangle because of the "rule of alternation". In a longer bear market it should be good to accumulate btc again during an accumulation phase some months before the block reward halving in year 2020.
These are the two scenarios I am preparing for. So I dont get surprised by one or the other.
Whats your guess?
On the downside the weekly bollinger is now at the horizontal support at 4600$, bitcoin has wicked below but barely closed a weekly candle below the bollinger, so expect massive support in this region in case of further downmove.
On the upside, we can still form a ABC correction with a C target of 11000-13000$ or draw the giant triangle.
Overall it seems there is not really a good risk reward for longterm trades on both sides which means we need more patience to see a pattern emerge or trade the lower timeframes and babysit positions.