Precise date for the top of this cycle

2021年11月4日

I thought a bit and found that the cycles are indeed getting longer.

First cycle duration is 367 days from the halving date to the top. Halving date was 28th of November 2012, date of top was Nov 30th 2013.

The second halving was on July 9th 2016, the top on Dec. 17th 2017. Cycle duration thus 567 days.

So: Every cycle is now either 159 days longer than the previous one, or 1.43x longer, should this lengthening ratio continue.

This would put the top for this cycle to March 27th 2022 (+159 days each cycle) or June 4th (x1.43 each cycle).

I think the top will be at the full 4.236 fibo extension at 300k. I made an overlay of the previous rally from August 2020 to May 2021.
The result fits pretty well with the fibo extension and also with the timing.

Let's see if this is correct.
If yes, most altcoins will see their top earliest in April 2022, or even as late as July 2022.

We will soon find out if this theory is correct :)

2021年11月8日

註釋

Well, bitcoin apparently cannot wait.

The rule is: The faster we pump, the sooner it will be over, and the lower the peak will be.

It will get really interesting at the rising upper log channel trendline:



Currently also possible rising wedge forming.

2021年11月18日

註釋

The dump is coming exactly as expected:



We are on track for ATH mid 2022.

2021年12月3日

註釋

It is almost ridiculous how BTC is mirroring August 2020:



All the PlanB fanboys of course will be sad that the promised peak in December won't come. But I was always leaning more towards the "lengthening cycle theory". We are on track for the top in mid 2022 :) Late March- Early June 2022.

2021年12月7日

註釋

Ok so we knew that a dump would come, but it was stronger than expected. Therefore, an overlay with the Covid crash of March 2020 seems more appropriate:



The timing of the top still hasn't changed, it remains late March to early June 2022. The top area: 200-300k.

2021年12月23日

註釋

I think the bottom is behind us now, and we are now slowly grinding upwards, hovering for some time in the 60-70k region, until early next year at some point, the final bit of the rally will start:

2021年12月30日

註釋

I have revised the top for the cycle, I think it will be later than June 2022.
More like December 2022. I know it's quite late, but the reasons I explain in my latest video on YT. Channel "Sebastian of Moon".