Is the Bitcoin Bubble Over?

2017年3月25日

It appears that we are breaking down from a non-limiting triangle which is the 2nd phase of a double combination. This likely concludes wave-(b) which means that we could now be beginning Wave-(c) and entering into a year-long bear trend. The alternative is that this forms into an x-wave or a d-wave and that we continue up towards 1800 much sooner than if this formed into a c-wave. If support at 5350 holds this will likely form an x-wave, if support at 4500 holds this will likely form a d-wave, and if both of those fail that will likely mean that we are in a c-wave and that this could retrace all the way down to the lowest support at 1860 and that the entire wave could take about a year to complete. The c-wave is actually the most likely because usually a non-limiting triangle ends a double combination but it's also not impossible one of the other supports hold, or at the least they provide some minor support, so it may be a good idea to take profit or hedge around those prices and look for a different place to short from again.

There's also a massive harmonic reversal zone that has been in play for a few weeks already that will likely continue to hold for some time, and quite a few bearish divergences on multiple higher time-frames. There's also been pretty big failures of harmonic support around the current prices which are definitely big indications of more down-trend to come, and the news in general has been very bearish with the rejection of the ETF, China getting more strict with regulations, and the Hard Fork threats coming from big miners and holders.

Either way this definitely looks very bearish with the break down out of this weekly triangle, and we should see some significant retracement from here. We'll have to watch each support to determine how low this is really going to go but for now it's a good idea to steer clear of bitcoin. However, many altcoins look really bullish still, so they may actually perform pretty well while bitcoin works out its problems with the ETF, China, and the Hard Fork over the next year.