I graphed the average correction here, average time duration and average price range. I expect BTC to bottom, after the smart money got rid of panic buyers and converted bears who might have given up and flipped long after making new all time highs and accelerating. This played out just as I expected it, so, if you reduced your exposure to 15-20% before it, feel free to thank me, or even sign up for my services.
On the fundamental side, we have a new key level here after today's close, I'll post it in comments. There were news of the PBOC implementing capital controls, and a headline today, from Bitquant's founder, who said capital fleeing China isn't really using BTC, which actually is bullish in the long term, if the reason of BTC going up isn't chinese people shuffling money out of China, since it means there's something else driving the growth, something more productive perhaps, like mass adoption, and bullish sentiment from larger investors.
We're looking to establish a large position here again, and we'll do it gradually, as we get more and more confirmation that the correction is done, and that it isn't the start of a longer term decline, which I think it isn't. Seeing oversold readings in the daily is a nice boost to our confidence, and having a nice discount from the top, an interesting opportunity to add back to our long.
I think we have the bottom in place. Note we have an almost average correction now. I'm long with almost a full position, adding a final 15% batch tomorrow.
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Note that the acceleration increased dramatically, which coincides when we confirmed the long term uptrend in BTC, which points to way higher prices during 2017.
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Still not done in the daily, so, clearly weekly and monthly in control.
News are messing with price, I assume this is manipulation until chinese new year again. We have exactly 3 weeks until then, which matches with the required time for the weekly to signal a bottom and a failure to the downside. Either, reduce exposure to 20%, or be patient and wait it out. I'll update if there's a reason for concern, which for now, there isn't.
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We're on track to resume the upside after the average correction time expires.
@AhmedAlif8, didn't BTC bottom and moved up from the low today?
Pato99
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Wow that was quick! Time to pick the last cheap coins before we will never see Sub 6k CNY again
IvanLabrie
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@Pato99, the confirmation will be in a couple days, initially, but if the week closes down, we'll have risk for 3 more weeks after.
Overall, we can't tell 100% for sure, but we do know we don't want to see price first, go under 5566, then under 4811. That would be a severe blow to the long term uptrend.
Below 3030 the long term uptrend is dead, or at least in hibernation.
Pato99
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@IvanLabrie, i would not worry too much about that. This is obvious manipulation from some big whales, which is so common in Crypto. Those dumps are part of the game and they will always be. Once they start to dump, 1 h later some random news magazine writes some FUD articles and there you go.
There is absolutely no reason to turn this into a bear market. Fundamentals are still FIAT down / BTC up in the Long term.
IvanLabrie
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@Pato99, yes, I was discussing just that with a friend of mine today. Also, the long term signal is still perfectly valid. I'm just waiting for more confirmation to add violently to longs. ;)
Pato99
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@IvanLabrie, There was a signal indicating this dump. #whalecalls on twitter showed suspicious activity in the hours before the dump.
TOP 1-3 OKcoin contract holders increased thir shorts 4 hours before the dump. After the last short liquidation we saw a wave of long liquidations which put us to where we are now. They liquidated most longs in this dump.
IvanLabrie
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@Pato99, that's 100% a shakeout...and I knew it would happen way before the fact as you know.
It's just those shady a-holes over at okcoin manipulating price to get a discount...there were too many retail longs.
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