Just an idea

2021年11月18日

This would be a max pain / extended cycle scenario. Most of open interest would be wiped, people would panic and call for a bear market such as we did after we dropped from the first 65k ATH, and it'd provide the ultimate buying opportunity for anyone who has conviction. Not saying this will happen, just posting to remind myself at a future date. Currently I'm looking at 52-54k for longs, but if that fails, than this would be the next scenario. It also would provide a higher low on the weekly. In my opinion, as Bitcoin is being adopted, I think we will truly be in an Up Only market as adoption increases, and we will only have these mini bear cycles. So although I'm not saying it's likely, I'm planning for it. Once again, I'm publishing this chart mostly for myself in the next upcoming weeks and months.

2021年12月5日

註釋

I didn't think it would play out this fast, but the horizontal held. Now I'm planning on a grind down, with weekly closes above 42K to remain macro bullish. But even if we got a wick to 37k, (with a weekly close still above 42k) my thesis will stay in tact.