I'm not posing this as a price prediction: rather, I'd really love for and value if others far more experienced than I could tell me where I'm wrong.
In short, I see BTC as certainly going to the downside, very soon.
I see an A-B-C correction from the previous ATH of $58k to around $37k.
I'm basing this on an analysis of the last two months, after BTC broke above its previous ATH.
As of today, 4 March, if we take the high to the low between 21 Feb and 28 Feb, we're simply retracing to the 0.768 Fib (probably the top of the candle on the 0.702) before moving to the downside, in an A-B-C movement, ending around $37k, which aligns with the bottom of the bull flag 05 Feb, and is below the January ATH, which is where it should be if we see these moves on the monthly timeframe also as waves, going back to crossing the previous ATH on 18 Dec.
On a big enough scale, what is happening now looks almost exactly like January. Just bigger. A 37% correction as opposed to January's 31%. The next ATH, which is $74.2k, needs this massive dip to drive it. 16 Dec is the start of this whole thing. We're on Wave 2.
This chart is messy, and somewhat incomplete. I may be off in multiple places. I'm hoping others can tell me what is wrong, and so help me improve in TA. I'm a novice.
Thanks a lot.
In short, I see BTC as certainly going to the downside, very soon.
I see an A-B-C correction from the previous ATH of $58k to around $37k.
I'm basing this on an analysis of the last two months, after BTC broke above its previous ATH.
As of today, 4 March, if we take the high to the low between 21 Feb and 28 Feb, we're simply retracing to the 0.768 Fib (probably the top of the candle on the 0.702) before moving to the downside, in an A-B-C movement, ending around $37k, which aligns with the bottom of the bull flag 05 Feb, and is below the January ATH, which is where it should be if we see these moves on the monthly timeframe also as waves, going back to crossing the previous ATH on 18 Dec.
On a big enough scale, what is happening now looks almost exactly like January. Just bigger. A 37% correction as opposed to January's 31%. The next ATH, which is $74.2k, needs this massive dip to drive it. 16 Dec is the start of this whole thing. We're on Wave 2.
This chart is messy, and somewhat incomplete. I may be off in multiple places. I'm hoping others can tell me what is wrong, and so help me improve in TA. I'm a novice.
Thanks a lot.
註釋
09 Mar 2021 14:25:47: From current price action, I'm revising the projection here to focus on the 38.8k level as the base.註釋
09 Mar 2021 22:31:38: An important update is the convergence that is happening now on the BTC daily chart in the MACD indicator. The MACD line is converging with the Signal line from underneath. The last time this happened was 2-3 February, as BTC pulled out of the bottom of the January correction. It's one signal, but a significant one, that in fact the correction may be complete. If borne out, the analysis in the chart above would be invalidated. Currently BTC is idling just under the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level on the initial downside impulse. $55k remains the key level BTC has to break. But this convergence on the MACD indicator suggests it will.註釋
10 Mar 2021 08:26:01: I've been detailing the critical point of $55k on the attached post here: 
註釋
10 Mar 2021 18:22:00: I'm calling the macro analysis detailed in the chart of this post as INVALIDATED.AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
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AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
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這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。