BTC - Target Hit - Market is Euphoric - Sentiment Indicator

已更新

What a wonderful rally since our Jan 2nd post with a T1 of 16,210 and T2 of 17,140. We also have a nice rally in the alt market as well. So what do I do when we have nice rallies? Sell into strength! Now I need to be clear, this is my trading portfolio not my core positions. Long term (12 months) I am bullish on the market, but we are still in a correction and many new to trading and investing do not understand the difference in being positioned in the short, medium and long term. I can be bearish in the short term, and bullish in the long term.

As an investor - I'm Bullish - Long term (6-12months) the market continues to grow. (I have NOT sold my core portfolio)

As a trader - I'm Cautious - Overall my trades are up around 25-30% at a quick glance in just a couple weeks. (I'm closing trades here). Mainly because the market moves as a whole, but I did keep a few open. After the last time trying to close trades I did it early to avoid the rush ;).

Trading like Poker is all about Risk and money management.

Good poker players are tight players. Yes there are the Dwans, Minieri and Helmuths of the game, but those are the exceptions. I personally look at a table for #1 who is controlling the action #2 who is the sucker. Sometimes they are one in the same. So you start playing and after a while you have doubled your money. What do I do when this happens even if I'm running hot? I get up take my chips off the table, get some lunch, and then sit down to play again with my original stack. Now I'm playing with house money. But we have all been in the situation where your running just hotter than hot! Your playing 25 off suit and turning the straight off a rainbow flop vs a set of kings. This is when you really need to get off the table, but few players have the discipline to do this.

We all know a few "loose players" at the table and though they brag a lot, we seldom see them walk away with chips!
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BTC' has hit our T2 level and formed a double top . I closed out the 2 trades I had on BTC' and will see what happens here. There is a valid 5 wave count, so I am even more cautious, and nothing like the first 50 posts on TV today going long with 500% profit targets.

I have put up some retracement levels that I am looking for. Keep in mind we do not have to retrace, we could straight out continue higher. I could also slow play with pocket aces and wait to see if a flush and straight draw flops. I'm happy with my gains, no need to risk losing my profits. Maybe you are more aggressive and are still playing, and maybe your more conservative and were gone when it hit $17,100. So what you do is up to you and your specific situation and how aggressive you are.

At this point,I look at risk reward. I am risking my profits here simple. I am also risking a major correction as we are not out of the woods yet and especially now that everyone has forgotten about $5000. If I am patient we may get a pullback to the $14,500 $13,300 or another chance at 11k. If we break out towards $18,500 I will reenter WHEN there is opportunity.

Bottom line I'm happy here and feel good sitting on cash. Seems like there are more charts calling for 350% profits now then there are shorts. Only one short to be honest. There is your sentiment indicator TV chart analysts!

Keep in mind it takes about 2 hours to write these up and it has continued lower. You can view my post on my profile page where I first posted it 2 hours ago. Limited explanation.

If you do not have little reminders posted around your desk to keep your head on, I will provide a few!
WHEN EVERYONE IS GREEDY BE FEARFUL, WHEN EVERYONE IS FEARFUL BE GREEDY
I MADE A FORTUNE GETTING OUT OF THE MARKET EARLY
LOSERS AVERAGE LOSERS

註釋

One other sign! When coins like Doge are up 100% and other junk coins (I actually like it but there is no team) This is a sign the market is over euphoric and looking to buy anything on the slightest positive signal.

註釋

I am getting a bunch of text messages on my phone, "I'm buying the dip". Ok really? Trying to catch a falling knife will leave you bloody more often then not. Patience is key. We did everything right now it becomes a risk/reward scenario. Two thoughts.
1) If your long long term, and you sold higher and want to add back in there is no reason not to here as you can add to your long term core. If your happy adding 10% then your happy. BUT!
2) $11,000 just gained in probability status. This was a hard selloff, so we can correct further. Do I buy here at $14,100? or do I wait for a SIGNAL that the trend is changing. In other words even the top TA guys are guessing right now. I am of the theory I would rather leave a few bones on the table when there is a 25% probability that we may get to 11k. In otherwords, I would rather buy at 15k when we are headed up and leave $1000 on the table, with the reward of being patient, hitting 11k and getting in for $3000 cheaper. Do we get there? Nobody knows but we want to see how the market reacts at this level, at least I do, before buying back in. If we show no signs of consolidation here then down she goes, but we should get consolidation as this is a psychological level. I'm going to take the same path I did at $4400 where I got so much flak and be patient.

註釋

For disclosure as many are following, I bought back 1/3 of my trade position.

註釋

My 1/3 positioned I just closed out at $14350 just to disclose. I am fine with the loss here. This is one reason we only entered with a 1/3 to minimize exposure, so the loss is not that bad.