7/31 Dump Recap
已更新
My view is the following:
-I have been closing longs for the past week, most of which have been fairly recently. Best close IMO was 7/24. Pretty important day – it signaled the TD9, flirted with the 61.8% fib and Weekly Resistance 2 Pivot and had a RSI of almost 90.
-During the upswing, volume (esp buying volume) _generally_ continued to steadily increase until 7/24. Since, we have seen selling pressure increase and volume decrease. But, keep in mind this is to be expected due to the weekend.
-Today we destroyed the Weekly Pivot, Ichi Cloud Support and 180D MA (which I find to be better than 200) and reentered my log downtrend (from 1/20/18). Currently hovering at the 61.8% fib (from the move up from 7/21), 100D MA and 17D MA.
-Although still bullish, I am looking for more down. The first area I am looking for a rebound in the 7300-7550 area, a confluence of support. Its where we consolidated before the recent upleg (also the 38.2% from May highs), Weekly S1, 78.6% of last upleg, 38.2% fib of the entire recent run and August’s Monthly Pivot (assuming a 7715 close today). I believe that last day to redeem futures contract is 8/1 (tomorrow) and historically we have seen large neg moved before these dates.
-If not here, I will be looking for the 6700-6900 range. The 6.7-6.9 range also corresponds with a regression model of “normal 2017 growth”, as well as, the top of June’s death range.
-I have been closing longs for the past week, most of which have been fairly recently. Best close IMO was 7/24. Pretty important day – it signaled the TD9, flirted with the 61.8% fib and Weekly Resistance 2 Pivot and had a RSI of almost 90.
-During the upswing, volume (esp buying volume) _generally_ continued to steadily increase until 7/24. Since, we have seen selling pressure increase and volume decrease. But, keep in mind this is to be expected due to the weekend.
-Today we destroyed the Weekly Pivot, Ichi Cloud Support and 180D MA (which I find to be better than 200) and reentered my log downtrend (from 1/20/18). Currently hovering at the 61.8% fib (from the move up from 7/21), 100D MA and 17D MA.
-Although still bullish, I am looking for more down. The first area I am looking for a rebound in the 7300-7550 area, a confluence of support. Its where we consolidated before the recent upleg (also the 38.2% from May highs), Weekly S1, 78.6% of last upleg, 38.2% fib of the entire recent run and August’s Monthly Pivot (assuming a 7715 close today). I believe that last day to redeem futures contract is 8/1 (tomorrow) and historically we have seen large neg moved before these dates.
-If not here, I will be looking for the 6700-6900 range. The 6.7-6.9 range also corresponds with a regression model of “normal 2017 growth”, as well as, the top of June’s death range.
註釋
註釋
What I have found to be the most interesting has been RSI. This recent bull run pushed RSI through a couple of trendlines, or channel, I had drawn. Im not even sure if this is a real technique, so take it with a grain of salt. But, since, ATH price peaks have either entered this blue channel or been rejected by the lower limit, resulting in major declines. Today, we are coming down to test the upper limit, something that hasn’t been down before. If in the next couple of days we can test and move back up, this would fuel my bull fire.註釋
After 2nd leg down BTC hit 7469 and has since been hovering in the 7300-7600 area as predicted. It currently seems to be following the middle of two trends established around 7/6/18 which tracked the Mid-June to Mid-July run.
註釋
Perfectly touched the Monthly Pivot and proceeded to bounce (as predicted).
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