General Market cycles & BTC's current state (Possible down move)

2021年1月22日

BTCUSD


Just wanted to share this chart, which points to a possible market cycle end/reversal for BTC. This is not advice for either long or short scenarios but a word of warning for those unfamiliar with market cycles in general.
Careful in this area, looking at the previous market cycles BTC has gone through (both large and small scale from all the way back in 2011 till now), they quite closely resemble the following pattern --> leading to a slow & painful drop.

If the text in the chart is unclear I'll include it below:

Disbelief:
- "This won't rally"
- "Bull trap"
- General hate towards the asset

Hope:
- "Oh, maybe it could recover here"

Optimism:
- "OMG guys BTC is going up for real"
- "This is looking good long-term"
- "This might be a real rally"

Belief:
- "This is actually happening, i need to invest as much as i can right now"

Thrill:
- "Time to long"
- "Borrow money, utilize margin --> WE ARE GOING UP GUYS"
- "OMG i need to tell everyone i know to buy"

Euphoria:
- "I am rich now"
- "I am a marketing genius"
- "We are all going to be rich"
- "This is going up forever guys, keep buying"

Complacency: --> Smart money has already left the market here
- "Indicators just need to reset"
- "We just need to cool off before the next leg up"
- "Everyone knows about it now, more & more money will flood into the market --> price has to go up"
- "FOMO is still here, Big players investing so get ready for the moonshot"
- "The next leg up will make this one look like a blip on the charts"

Anxiety:
- Self explanatory (fear but not full blown panic)

Denial:
- "Bear trap"
- "More will buy"
- "it has to go up, it just has to"
- This is usually a stage that shows reversal and possible movement upwards before dropping further

Panic:
- Self explanatory

Capitulation: --> Smart money begins slowly buying around here
- "I 100% need to get out of this market & never come back"
- Mass money leaves the market.

Last 2 are self explanatory (Anger then depression) before the cycle repeats yet again.

*This is just an idea, not advice*

2021年2月4日

註釋

DXY could be the catalyst for this idea to come to fruition?

DXY looking to be in a bullish gartley since 2014 to now and is ready for a bullish move. It's not perfect but looks bad for BTC?

2021年2月5日

註釋

Monthly chart looking a bit similar to that 2017-18 rejection, just offset a bit

Hmm

2021年3月26日

註釋

Man did I call the top way too early 😂

New chart posted, thought I'd update this idea to confirm that this is no longer in play.

2021年6月11日

註釋