BTC Swing Points (Linear Scale) I

5 天前

STRUCTURAL AWARENESS
This analysis seeks to provide structural insights by identifying key levels and understanding historical price patterns to anticipate the limits potential future scale of price movements.

Indicators in use:

• I'd start with retrieving HH LH HL LL points by script I've designed based on Pivot Points to be as aware as possible of key levels of the historic structure:
• Adding altered Zig Zag that shows only percentage change of the swings. This would be another layer of the historic pattern capture:

BOTTOMS:
Wave analysis from '22 - '24

• Logarithmic Trendline: It looks like a curve on linear scale, which we will use to link the composite but significant lows and extend it to the right. This gives a sense of a low levels which we assume would be hard to break anytime soon because of the price is a range away:
• Breaking below and staying under that level for more than a few bars would signal a bearish trend, depending on emerging patterns at smaller scales as price nears the curve.
  
• Since a Double Top pattern could develop, an additional line curve aligned with the HL and passing through the next bottom (black dashed curve) is necessary. If price breaches the main curve’s orange dotted line, it may descend toward the secondary curve, a significant lower boundary derived from historical curvature. A break below this level would require an even stronger bearish effort to actually keep it below because of high volatility and existing frequency of reversals.
• Adding short-term trendlines which would be easier to break (Red and dark orange dotted continuation of the lines)

TOPS:

To anticipate how high it can grow, we'll connect the extreme tops as well.

• 2021 ATH ➡︎ 2024 ATH
• 2021 TOPS
• 2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP

Price breaking above "2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP" is a sign to switch to log scale where identical distance resembles identical % change to capture a bigger scale move relative to the structure.