CAPITULATION IS YET TO COME

已更新

BTC is currently fighting it's way up and forming a rising channel.
I'm personally expecting a pop up within the next few days.

History loves to repeat itself.
That's why I expect the upcoming upwardsmomentum to be the final leg up, before we have capitulation taking place.

Notice how during March the exact same channel has been formed after price boomed to the upside.

We have a similar declining trendline forming right now (blue line) and it's very likely that BTC will break through, causing a further push to the upside.

BUT!

I do not expect this to be the trendreversal everybody's anticipating.

Capitulation is yet to come.

In case you've read my previews analysis, you might have noticed that I'm pretty confident about market cycles and that they always repeat themselves.
Capitulation is needed, if we want a new (bull) cycle to begin.
We haven't witnessed that yet.

You might wanna take notice that there COULD be a reason, why Wall Street professionals rely on market cycles ;)

Anyways..

In terms of BTC price behavior, you should observe the blue, declining trendline.
Once we break through, I'm personally aiming for a long position until we reach 8450-8600 level.

This is where I'm going to take short positions.
Chart explains why.

Also notice (AGAIN!) the similarities between now and 2014:

It should be obvious to you what's happening right now.

This does not exclude that I'm wrong.
I could be.

As a trader, you want the probabilities to be in your favour.
Right now, the probabilities are pointing towards capitulation.

I'm going to change my strategy, if the probabilities point towards a new bull run, which is not the case right now.

Wish you guys happy trading, I'm going to keep you updated.

Regards

Shaheen

交易進行

Just broke out

註釋

We might have a bearish bat pattern forming.

註釋

Near target zone, move SL to entry point.

註釋

Previous support doing it's job as resistance.

註釋

Bearish div. on 4H

註釋

Depending on how price reacts to 0.382 Fib level, we're either going to get a pump or dump.
Watch closely how prices behaves at the 8.500$ zone.

註釋

The overall movement appears to be working out as expected.
Price just nearly missed the target zone.
BTC failed to break through 0.382 FIB level, expecting some consolidation for now.
Might retest 8.500$ Zone again.
In case the retest fails, I'm anticipating 7.600$ to be the next stop.

註釋

8.500$ Zone rejected twice.
Potential H&S forming.
Next target: 7.700$

註釋

Going short once the green neckline has been broken.

交易進行

Fell through, probable we see 7,7k soon.

註釋

We had a small drop, but the H&S pattern failed immediately after that.
Now it appears that my initial idea, of going back to the target zone before further dropping, is about to play out.

At the current state, it's hard to predict what BTC is about to do next.
Doesn't change the fact, that we're NOT in a bull market yet.

I'm going to post a new idea soon.

註釋

New Analysis up!