ShaheenFahmy

CAPITULATION IS YET TO COME

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
BTC             is currently fighting it's way up and forming a rising channel .
I'm personally expecting a pop up within the next few days.

History loves to repeat itself.
That's why I expect the upcoming upwardsmomentum to be the final leg up, before we have capitulation taking place.

Notice how during March the exact same channel has been formed after price boomed to the upside.

We have a similar declining trendline forming right now (blue line) and it's very likely that BTC             will break through, causing a further push to the upside.

BUT!

I do not expect this to be the trendreversal everybody's anticipating.

Capitulation is yet to come.

In case you've read my previews analysis, you might have noticed that I'm pretty confident about market cycles and that they always repeat themselves.
Capitulation is needed, if we want a new (bull) cycle to begin.
We haven't witnessed that yet.

You might wanna take notice that there COULD be a reason, why Wall Street professionals rely on market cycles ;)

Anyways..

In terms of BTC             price behavior, you should observe the blue, declining trendline .
Once we break through, I'm personally aiming for a long position until we reach 8450-8600 level.

This is where I'm going to take short positions.
Chart explains why.

Also notice (AGAIN!) the similarities between now and 2014:




It should be obvious to you what's happening right now.

This does not exclude that I'm wrong.
I could be.

As a trader, you want the probabilities to be in your favour.
Right now, the probabilities are pointing towards capitulation.

I'm going to change my strategy, if the probabilities point towards a new bull run, which is not the case right now.

Wish you guys happy trading, I'm going to keep you updated.

Regards

Shaheen









交易進行: Just broke out
評論: We might have a bearish bat pattern forming.

評論: Near target zone, move SL to entry point.
評論: Previous support doing it's job as resistance.

評論: Bearish div. on 4H

評論: Depending on how price reacts to 0.382 Fib level, we're either going to get a pump or dump.
Watch closely how prices behaves at the 8.500$ zone.

評論: The overall movement appears to be working out as expected.
Price just nearly missed the target zone.
BTC failed to break through 0.382 FIB level, expecting some consolidation for now.
Might retest 8.500$ Zone again.
In case the retest fails, I'm anticipating 7.600$ to be the next stop.
評論: 8.500$ Zone rejected twice.
Potential H&S forming.
Next target: 7.700$

評論: Going short once the green neckline has been broken.

交易進行: Fell through, probable we see 7,7k soon.
評論: We had a small drop, but the H&S pattern failed immediately after that.
Now it appears that my initial idea, of going back to the target zone before further dropping, is about to play out.

At the current state, it's hard to predict what BTC is about to do next.
Doesn't change the fact, that we're NOT in a bull market yet.

I'm going to post a new idea soon.
評論: New Analysis up!

評論: New Idea is up

If I could like every your update I would do it. Appreciate your work, thanks.
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ud go short? but the main graph illustrates that we should go up to 8.5k again and then go down
+1 回覆
@NQ95, Yep, that's what the updates are for - thinks can change pretty fast in these markets :)
+1 回覆
Nice charts. I agree this is still a possibility.
+1 回覆
ShaheenFahmy BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, Thanks! :)
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Great trader Hello, admire your work
I don’t agree with your point of view. The bears are no longer available for sale.
Any attempt to drop prices has recently become ineffective, and I think we should accept the fact that the bear market is over and all the falling channels have lost their role.
The BTC fell or even continued to decline after breaking through the downtrend channel in 2014, because the entire market was very primitive and weak, and the market value was very low. Someone controlled the market. But now, after four years, no one can manipulate it. If you Want to manipulate this market, now you will be crushed.
I insist on my opinion that we can already be fully bullish and do more.

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@bbcswxopen, I do agree with almost the entire statement, except the market manipulation. It is still here it will always be present in any financial market including BTC and company.
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bbcswxopen cryptotrader123
@cryptotrader123, Yes, I admit it, but the BTC market is not controlled by only a few people. They cannot control it and they cannot agree.
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@bbcswxopen, You do not need to have all of BTC supply to manipulate the price, actually with a few hundred million USD that is quite enough and achievable. Futures are another financial vehicle, where you do not even need any BTC to play the game, they are cash settled.
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