BTC | Correlation doesn't assume causation

2019年9月29日

It sure doesn't. But in BTC's case, it seems as though the two go hand in hand. And despite the rhetoric of BTC being a hedge against risk on assets, since 2011, BTC has a correlation coefficient of about r=0.78 compared to that with gold of about r= -0.14.

Go figure.

And then again, when all shit breaks loose, all asset classes converge to 1. But BTC has never experienced a macro econ recession. If it does, will it also be gaining? As CNBC's Thomas Lee once stated BTC is ambidextrous, we all hope so.

And although BTC is volatile as f*ck, compared to the S&P, BTC's Sharpe Ratio once again steals the show:

BTC YTD Sharpe: 42.9
S&P YTD Sharpe: 20.8

So what's is going to take for BTC to pump again? Do we need the S&P to also pump some? Well as the eve of the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China creeps up on us, it's easy to say getting a trade deal done will be the catalyst. But with comments from US officials on Friday threatening to delist Chinese stocks from US exchanges...HOLD on tighter.