MikeLeChat
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Bitcoin - Now with 99% less Warren Buffett quotes

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
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Good day, it's old hickory ham Mike here

I've been following tradingview on and off for inspiration, occassionally drawing a giant lizard on a Verge chart, but lately it has become a bit of a circus of one crowd shouting Bitcoin to $50k tomorrow. Then equally annoyingly, you have the other side drawing a line down to zero before sitting back smugger than Tony Blair at a swingers party full of war widows. (I admit, that took a dark turn)

I believe that TA and cryptocurrency is a self fulfilling prophecy, there is no good reason it works aside from that without it you'd need to accept Crypto is half blind speculation... but I won't poke that hornets nest any further.

At any rate, here is how I think that things are going to pan out.

Patterns are patterns, if we trace from the peak of the last uptrend to the low of the recent downtrend there is an intersection at the start of April. Whenever we hit that top trendline we are going to see a panic selling drop, whenever we reach down towards the bottom we are going to see buyers who have missed the preivous bottom jumping in, rinse and repeat until the 2 meet.

So what you say? 'That's just a couple of lines you've drawn because it's Thursday night, you're bored, you've ran out of snacks and it's too cold to go and get more beer from the shop'. Well yes, that's pretty much it.

But wait there's more...

I'll be drawing on some previous corrections to compare some previous patterns and my reasoning, but for now the bottom line is we will be stuck within the above traingle until the end of April where the next rally will begin in earnest.

Sweet baby jesus do not take this as any kind of advice, this is just how i see the turd coinciding with the fan.

MLC
評論: Thought I would return to this half finished idea, I've been busy learning as much as possible to hopefully move forward and actually start providing some useful analysis in the future, for a change.

So bear with me, as I'd like to re-visit this chart since we appear to approaching a bit of an important moment for Bitcoin following the recent dip.

Despite the slightly dodgy trend lines, and not much else, I'm comfortable in saying that the above scenario has played out pretty close to the prediction, I've updated the chart if you're interested in look at this against the current price action;



We can see that we had a failed rally that led us out of the downtrend at the start of March, but clearly Bitcoin had forgotten to feed the cat so had to rush back, but we can now see a second attempt is being made to leave.

So what next? The daily chart looks OK, we were oversold on the MI which has now crossed over, MACD is also converging teasing at the idea of crossing over but is currently stood with it's hands in it's pockets. This reflects the uncertainty felt at the moment and both the 3 day view and the weekly leaves room for another re-entry into the triangle of doom.

Personally, I see 2 - 3 days of sideways momentum with a failed rally to $9k, then a sharp dip back into the buy zone allowing for a new trend to begin in the first week of April.

Stay frosty

MLC
評論: So that link didn't work and editing just isn't a thing,

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/34UWxXS3-Bitcoin-New-cycle-update/
評論: Failed rally attempts past $9k so far

From here I think we will hover around the $8.7k mark and consolidate, this will see us on another rally with an upside potential of $9.6k where I believe we will bounce downward sharply leading us into the last big dip of March and a cycle reset at the start of April
Good perspective. Self fulfilling prophesy is a component. Also the desire of the whales controlling the direction cannot be ignored. There is no pattern that works 100% of the time. There are some with as low as 10% on up to 80%.
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MikeLeChat Makingithappen
@Makingithappen, Thanks, and I certainly agree, I think that's why it's bordering the impossible for anyone to draw an exact path due to big players adding or removing momentum. That's also my thinking as to why we will stay in this triangle for now, since even the whales will keep to the path of least resistance.
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