BULLS MIGHT HATE ME FOR SAYING THIS

Alright Ladies and Gentlemen,

as expected, the bounce from 6.500 $ towards 7.400$ was nothing but just another bull trap.
We had decreasing Volume and an increasing price.
Nothing bullish about that to be quite honest with you.

There were multiple resistances at 7.400$ as you can see (Red downtrend channel).

Right now, we are moving under July's supportline.
A daily close below that one would be pretty bearish.

What do I think will happen in the near future?

I expect BTC to retest the 6.400$ level once again, probably breaking through towards 5.800$ / 5.500$ which proves to be a powerful support.

Once we've reached that level, there are 2 potential outcomes.

1. Given that the support won't hold, BTC might be going for a fast capitulation around 2,5k-3,6k.

2. In case we get a double bottom, BTC might bounce & retest December's resistance around 7.400$.
I would expect the attempted breakthrough to fail, causing a drop towards our capitulation price.

Even though I don't like it, I'm expecting scenario 2 to play out.

Let's see how it goes.

註釋

Let's see how this one plays out.

註釋

Pretty interesting what's happening right now.
BTC appears to be struggling breaking through 6.900$ (previous support level, confirmed multiple times).

If BTC manages to break through, we might have a H&S Pattern forming here, targeting 6.000$

註釋

Appears there is a bearflag forming right now.
Target for a breakout is around 6.400$.

註釋

IF a breakout to the downside occurs with relatively high volume, I'm going to place a sell order at 6.700$

註釋

Attempted breakout, not quite successful though.
Let's wait for the 15 Min Candle to close.

Appears to be that I won't get to sleep today lol, gonna be a tough run.

交易進行

註釋

Had a nice drop overnight and a little bounce at 6.500$.
Appears that BTC will retest 6.5000$ soon.

註釋

Gotta love those random pumps.

註釋

We might have a textbook bearflag forming on the 1H Chart.

註釋

Nothing exciting happening right now.
Just some choppiness inside the bearflag.
Hard to say when exactly we will get our breakdown.
Best thing you can do right now is to watchout for breakdowns around the 6.600$ area.
From a measured move perspective, the bearflag could lead us towards 6.000$
MIGHT be a good opportunity for some new short positions.

註釋

I would give my life for this H & S to play out lol.

註釋

Over here in Germany it's beyond bedtime already.
If we have a breakdown happening while I'm sleeping:
You might want to place a sell order as soon as BTC falls through the green support line.
You want to look for a high red volume bar, indicating selling pressure + a 30-60 Minute Candle closing below the green supportline for a high probabilty of moving downwards.
This is no financial advice.
Have a nice day and safe trading!