Bitcoin Bear Market Trading: Evaluation of Trades - Part 1

This is a post so I could do a self evaluation of my trades. I'm a long term bitcoin bull but trading this as a bear market. Overall, I have done extremely well but want to look for areas of improvement while also providing information that is educational to new traders. Links to these updates here:


Nov 20 - Bitcoin Compared to Silver Parabola

I started moving to cash.

Dec 8 - Bitcoin Bull Flag

Short update where I was looking for a break up or down out of this channel.

Dec 22 - Bitcoin Price over Next 3-10 Days

I traded a dead cat bounce targeting $15400-$16500 area and suggested selling that area. Expected we could retest lows in 3-10 days. We retested lows 8 days later.

Dec 23 - Support Becomes Resistance

Show that area of resistance which was the top of the this short move up.

Dec 24 - Update on Bitcoin Bearish Move

I was still cautious. Not short but concerned that it would fall below $11000

Dec 28 - Bitcoin in Danger Area

Made a move up and then fell back below that line quickly. I really wasn't trading this much during the holidays.

Dec 29 - Bitcoin in Dangerous Area Again

More warnings and updating the key support lines, but in cash still was hoping to see bitcoin make a move.

Dec 30 - Bitcoin: The Battle to Stay Above $10k Begins

Still in cash. No decisions made, looking for some signs of a strength to see if we can make a move. So my mistake here was not going long.

Jan 12 - Bitcoin Getting to Another Critical Level

Generally in cash but identified clear bullish and bearish cases.

Jan 20 - Bitcoin at Critical Level Again ---- *****MY DECISION TO SHORT*****

I finally received enough information to tell me that Bitcoin was going down (6 weeks after the top).

Feb 2 - Did Bitcoin Just Bottom: - ****LONG AT $7600

I added when we moved to $9000 and dipped to the .618 at $8200. My average was $8300.

Feb 3 - Trading the Bitcoin Reversal

"I'm taking partial profits from $9200 to $9500 from my average buy around $8300."

I was looking to get short at $10k but it never happened.

Feb 9 - Trading the Bitcion Reversal Take 2

My first buy was just below $8000 on that pullback, but that turned out to be a good trade. I ended up taking partial profits

Feb 17 - Concerns About Bull Trap

Bitcoin was back at $11000 and I was showing a chart of Bitcoin in 2014 where it had a monster bull trap.

Feb 20 Close to the top ($11700) - *****One of the RARE traders to short

Everyone was super bullish but I shorted this perfectly

Feb 26 - Bitcoin Turning

In this post I just talk about going long until $9800 where I did end up taking profits on my long position and started looking to reshort. I should have held a bit longer.

Mar 5 - Understanding the Bitcion Parabola

Important post where I expand on history of Parabolas.

I attempted several shorts from $10k to $11700 and got stopped out before I eventually was able to get into a good short position at $11500.

March 18 - Today is an Incredibly Important Day for Bitcoin

We were at a critical level with some support so I attempted to go long but stopped out.

March 29 - With Bitcoin Expect the Unexpected

Overall I didn't trade much in March, but I was looking for a bounce here. I was cautious but eventually recognized accumulation and went long at $6500. Called the short squeeze.

At this point, I'm long and still evaluating. I'm expecting to signs of weakness in 3-10 days where I will reshort. My biggest mistakes were taking profits and not letting trades work longer. So I don't want to get to eager to go short. It is possible that bottom is in but I would need to see more signs to stay long. If the bear market continues I will update with a part 2 from this point.

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